Tuesday, June 21, 2011

WikiLeaks: 2007 U.S. Embassy diplomatic cables on the 2007 general election in The Bahamas

Cables examined 2007 PLP loss



CANDIA DAMES
NG News Editor
thenassauguardian
candia@nasguard.com


As politicians in The Bahamas craft their strategies ahead of the next general election, an examination of U.S. diplomatic cables on the 2007 poll may prove instructive.

One May 2007 cable said the Progressive Liberal Party held many advantages going into that election.

“It was a well-financed incumbent, held 29 of the 40 seats in Parliament, and boasted of a strong economy, job growth, and billions of dollars in new investments,” wrote a U.S. Embassy official.

“However, the PLP made a tactical error by focusing the election on the personalities of the two party leaders.

“Unlike former Prime Minister (Perry) Christie, (FNM leader Hubert) Ingraham is decisive — so much so that many blamed the FNM's 2002 election defeat on ‘Hubiggety’ Ingraham's imperial attitude.

“By focusing on personality, the PLP allowed the FNM to hammer away at the themes of trust and efficiency.”

It is not clear which official wrote that particular cable, but the name of Brent Hardt, then charge d’ affaires, is attached.

The cable noted that Ingraham, also known as ‘The Delivery Boy,’ is famous for his blunt honesty and his ability to deliver on his promises.

“This contrasted favorably for voters with Christie's reputation for tardiness, lack of control over his ministers, and inability to make tough decisions.”

The U.S. Embassy official wrote that the PLP's campaign theme —"So Said, So Done" — only served to highlight its own lack of action on outstanding electoral promises.

The cable said the FNM's theme — "It's About Trust" — resonated with a populace frustrated by Christie's scandal-plagued MPs, and the FNM buttressed this theme with pledges of open government and anti-corruption legislation.

The FNM's victory came also from its superior party organization, the cable said.
“In a 2005 conversation with the charge, PLP chairman Raynard Rigby had praised Ingraham's skills as a grassroots campaign organizer and predicted a tough fight for the PLP if Ingraham resumed party leadership,” the cable wrote.

“Rigby's prediction came true, as the FNM's party machinery was the driving force during the election. FNM constituency workers were electronically connected to headquarters and its detailed electronic maps and databases, with clear plans for house-to-house outreach and a unified approach to national advertising.”

The cable added, “Even on election day, FNM election workers coordinated like cogs in a well-oiled national machine while PLP workers labored, constituency by constituency, with little evident coordination.”

In a pre-election meeting, Ingraham told the embassy that Christie was a likable man and gifted speaker, but he was the last person you would want to organize a government.

“The prime minister's office was notorious inside and outside the government for its inefficiency and disorder,” the cable said.

“The PLP's inability to organize itself effectively for the election clearly flowed from the top.

“In fact, Christie's indecisiveness kept him from calling an early election, when the FNM was in leadership crisis and Ingraham still had one foot in retirement.

“Instead he waited until the last possible moment and thereby allowed Ingraham and the FNM the maximum time to get their feared organizational machinery in gear.”

The cable said demographic shifts also played a key role in the election.

“Traditional PLP seats in the low-income center of New Providence and traditional FNM seats on the beachfronts were fairly secure for each party,” it said.

“However, as The Bahamas has developed and as income and education levels have risen, constituents have moved from the traditional PLP areas into new middle-class areas.”

This shift has expanded the potential FNM base and eroded traditional loyalty to the PLP as the party of independence among those who view the FNM agenda as better suited to middle-class sensibilities, the cable said.

As a result, the FNM took most of the battleground districts with mixed constituencies, it added.

Another key demographic change was the large increase in young and first-time voters who are less tolerant of traditional Caribbean handout politics and want their representatives to deliver good governance, it added.

In fact, perceptions of poor PLP performance in government dogged PLP candidates, the embassy official wrote.

“While the FNM candidates discussed their plans to develop local government and improve services, the PLP candidates were forced to defend their sketchy record,” the cable said.
“In many cases, constituents were fed up with poor trash collection, bad roads, and perceived indifference of the parliamentary representatives to their concerns.”

According to the cable, these three winning factors — demographic shifts, national party organization and a focus on good governance —framed an election of differing campaign styles and parties with differing core values.

“The PLP is still the party of Lynden Pindling, the father of Bahamian independence whose later years were tarnished by allegations of drug-related corruption,” the embassy official wrote.

Rooted in the working-class neighborhoods of The Bahamas and quick to evoke issue of race, the PLP continued to campaign in the Pindling era style of perks for constituents, the cable said.

“The FNM victory reflects a politically maturing Bahamas, focused on modern governance and a more integrated, national approach to politics that clearly attracted younger and middle-class voters towards the party.”

The official noted that the 2007 race was the closest in decades and said “the PLP is well positioned to be a strong opposition in Parliament.”

Jun 20, 2011

thenassauguardian