Government's Paying The Price For Recession
By Dennis Morrison, jamaica-gleaner Contributor:
One does not have to be a student of political economy to understand how the global financial turmoil of the last four years has shaken up the political landscape.
In the United Kingdom, the Gordon Brown-led Labour Party was the first in a string of casualties arising from the sharp economic downturn which is still reverberating across the globe. It seems not to matter whether ruling parties are of right or left orientation, as dissatisfied voters express their anger by discarding incumbents.
Across the globe, the political environment remains volatile under the impact of widespread joblessness, record mortgage foreclosures, and the massive destruction of wealth.
The prospect that there will be no early relief, and the seeming intractable nature of the European debt crisis, mean that the sour political mood will persist.
In America, the Obama administration and the Democrats have borne the brunt of voter dissatisfaction, even though they inherited the crisis and had acted rapidly to halt the precipitous slide in the economy.
In mid-term elections at the end of 2010, American voters turned on the congressional Democrats and booted them out, as economic malaise deepened, and the ranks of the unemployed swelled. With the slow pace of the recovery and gridlock in Congress, the 2012 elections could see another wild swing of the political pendulum.
In the presidential race, the weakness of the Republican candidates could prove decisive, although President Obama's re-election chances are seen to be heavily tied to the pace of improvement in the job market.
gov'ts toppled
Governments were toppled in Belgium, the Netherlands, Iceland, Hungary, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. In France, the second-largest economy in Europe, presidential elections are due in April, and the latest opinion polls are showing President Nicolas Sarkozy trailing his main rival from the Socialist Party. While it is too soon to count him out, his ratings are being depressed by the slow progress in settling measures to stave off the debt crisis in the Eurozone.
Farther afield, the Opposition Democratic Party of Japan won a historic landslide victory in 2009, reflecting deep economic anxieties in that country which have still not eased. Japan's economy has been undergoing two decades of lethargic growth and is the cause of its continued political fragility.
Latin American countries were among the best-performing economies in the turbulent conditions since 2008, recovering fast from the recession and returning to strong growth. A region which is usually highly volatile, the political mood in Latin America has mirrored the economic stability experienced in recent times. Incumbents in Argentina and Brazil were returned to office, and in Brazil, in particular, the anti-poverty programmes of the Lula administration brought political stability.
Governments in the Caribbean have not been immune to the political backlash from the recession. The ruling People's Progressive Party in Guyana won its fifth consecutive term, helped no doubt by the fact that the Guyanese economy had fared better than most in the region. In St Lucia, the incumbent United Workers Party was thrown out after one term, weighed down by political wrangling and leadership issues, but more important, by difficult economic circumstances.
Role in jlp defeat
History was made in Jamaica with the Jamaica Labour Party administration being the first to have the dubious distinction of losing after one term in office since adult suffrage in 1944. Analysts have put arrogance and corruption at the top of the list of factors responsible for the party's defeat.
I would argue, however, that the fact that the Jamaican economy shrank by more than five per cent in the past four years and job losses climbed to more than 100,000 was a more powerful influence on the electoral outcome.
Political activity is heating up in The Bahamas, where elections are due later this year. On the current standing, there could well be another one-term administration in the works with the Hubert Ingraham-led Free National Movement seeming to be highly vulnerable. Although investment activity in tourism, its leading sector, is picking up, the negative impact of the global downturn is still being felt.
Barbados' election cycle runs to January 2013, and the incumbent government there will also be navigating strong economic headwinds.
Growth-inducing strategies and activities that generate employment are not only important to get regional economies moving again but will influence the political tide in the Caribbean. Politicians will have to show their skills at policymaking and management to survive the tide.
Dennis Morrison is an economist. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.
February 5, 2012
jamaica-gleaner
A political blog about Bahamian politics in The Bahamas, Bahamian Politicans - and the entire Bahamas political lot. Bahamian Blogger Dennis Dames keeps you updated on the political news and views throughout the islands of The Bahamas without fear or favor. Bahamian Politicians and the Bahamian Political Arena: Updates one Post at a time on Bahamas Politics and Bahamas Politicans; and their local, regional and international policies and perspectives.
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Political activity is heating up in The Bahamas, where a general election is due soon... ...On the current standing, there could well be another one-term administration in the works with the Hubert Ingraham-led Free National Movement (FNM) seeming to be highly vulnerable... ...Although investment activity in tourism, its leading sector, is picking up, the negative impact of the global downturn is still being felt in The Islands
Friday, February 3, 2012
I believe that what is lacking in our Bahamian society is an ‘all hands on deck’ approach in our communities by our parents, religious leaders, politicians and civic organizations... ...we must invest appropriately in the education of our children to acquire the requisite skill-set... diversifying our economy to provide opportunities for both educated and technical Bahamians... taking the necessary steps to reduce our national debt and deficit... as well as implementing a progressive tax system in order to move our country forward
Where do we go from here? pt. 1
By Arinthia S. Komolafe:
Feb 02, 2012
thenassauguardian
Where do we go from here? Pt. 2
By Arinthia S. Komolafe:
The Bahamas like many other nations around the world in this 21st century is plagued with socio-economic challenges that seem to stifle the progress of our nation towards the path that leads to the desired level of peace, prosperity and security for our people. The economy is certainly uppermost in the minds of our people as we tread through these turbulent times with many looking to the government for solutions to our economic woes. However, there is a growing concern over the increased level of social degradation that we are experiencing as evidenced by the myriad social issues that we are confronted with daily. Unfortunately, it appears that our young people continue to be the major casualties of this degradation. This impact on our youth raises the fundamental question: Are we failing our youth and will we continue to lose successive generations of Bahamians to issues such as poor economic policies, inadequate education and social ills?
The current circumstance
At the government level, it appears that little progress has been made in improving both our economy and the educational system in our nation. The inability of the government to diversify our economy to provide more job opportunities for its people is accelerating the increase in our poverty levels. The recent global economic downturn has highlighted the inefficiencies of our economic model that is based primarily on the service industry with dependence on financial services and tourism. It also stresses the regressive nature of our tax code and inefficient methods of collecting government revenue. Most importantly, it reinforces the harsh reality of our gross dependency on the prosperity of the American and European economies. The more we witness events unfold in The Bahamas, one can’t help but wonder whether we are regressing rather than progressing.
Over the last five years alone, our national debt has risen to an astounding $4.5 billion, our debt-to-GDP ratio has increased from some 30 percent to approximately 60 percent. Our deficit currently stands at more than eight percent and the unemployment rate has doubled during the last few years, contributing to the tremendous amount of foreclosures in our nation. The government has justified its borrowing as the only alternative course of action to prevent a collapse in the Bahamian economy. However, one wonders whether this was in fact the only option available and if agreed, if the borrowed funds were invested in a manner that benefitted a wide cross-section of Bahamians or just a select few. The aforementioned statistics suggest that the funds were arguably mismanaged and invested heavily in infrastructural projects that benefitted a small percentage of contractors and companies while the country witnessed and continues to witness increased social degradation.
Being in a position where it was strapped for cash and with revenues down, the government has made minimal investment in social programs comparative to its investment in infrastructural projects and has significantly increased the tax burden on its people in addition to raising the national debt. It is common knowledge that investment in key social programs is important for the sustenance of our nation and will help minimize the rising social issues that plague our nation. Focusing on education, it is a given that an educated Bahamas will position itself to play a more vital role on the global stage. The general consensus still exists that education in various forms including academic, athletic, social and culture among others, provides an individual with an opportunity to pursue a better way of life. In The Bahamas, it appears that there are classes of Bahamian children who are being denied adequate education, particularly in the public school system.
The need for a better education system
The Department of Statistics’ labor force report reveals that two percent of our labor force has had no schooling and six percent has stopped short of a primary education while nine percent of our total work force has not completed secondary education. The aforesaid percentages suggest that approximately 20 percent of our working population is inadequately equipped academically to compete on a national level, let alone a global level. There is further evidence that shows that approximately 20 percent of our work force receives a university level education while 10 percent attend some other form of tertiary education. As a result, 53 percent of our work force attain at the most an education at the secondary level.
Combined with the aforementioned startling statistics is the fact that the national grade average based upon national examination results in 2011 sits at a discontented D average. Even more disturbing is the fact that the D average includes the private schooling system, which if removed, will probably significantly decrease the national average. It is reported that the recent examination results evidence that approximately 34 percent of 5,000 plus students sitting the English examination received C or above while some 24 percent who took math received a C or above. Consequently, 65 percent of our children received an English grade of D or lower while some 75 percent of our children received a grade of D or lower. The lack of sufficient teachers to teach key subjects such as math, physics, chemistry and other technical courses, has been blamed for these unimpressive statistics. It is important to ascertain whether sufficient measures are being put in place to encourage more Bahamians to become educators.
In the absence of an aggressive recruitment process, are we exhausting all avenues to engage qualified teachers that will produce the desired results? Further, what measures are being taken to reduce the overcrowding in our public system to provide for more favorable teacher-student ratios? If we are serious about preparing the next generation for the future, greater emphasis must be placed upon adequate and quality education of our children. We must see to it that more of the 53 percent mentioned above have the opportunity to receive tertiary level education and greater opportunities to obtain the same locally. Of particular note is the long overdue upgrade of The College of The Bahamas to university status.
Investment in infrastructure is absolutely necessary to any society, but a lack of investment in a nation’s citizens and, more importantly, the education of its youth will minimize or eradicate any lasting effect of infrastructural development due to a lack of qualified citizens in society with a propensity to increase social ills. In this regard, it is welcomed news to hear that the Progressive Liberal Party has committed to doubling the budget allocation to education if it wins the next general election; however, such allotment must be dispensed in an effective manner that will produce favorable results in education.
Many believe that our leaders are bankrupt of ideas to address our failing education system. The curriculum itself is widely believed to be deficient and outdated. The lack of adequate education among our youth will inevitably lead to a further increase in social issues and will inevitably increase youth engagement in illegal activities such as the drug trade, guns and arms trafficking and anti-social behavior such as gang violence.
A lie has been sold to our children that the perceived rewards of these activities afford them a lifestyle that may otherwise be unattainable by securing an honest job and obtaining a better way of life through conventional norms. The level of violence among our youth had increased to such an alarming rate that a school-based policing program was initiated by the Christie administration of 2002-2007. It is worth noting that the current administration canceled the program in 2007. However, their subsequent realization of the wisdom of the program in the midst of escalating levels of violence in our schools prompted the re-implementation of the program in 2011. In today’s Bahamas, our young people should not be faced with the challenge of having a fear of attending school due to violence among their peers; neither should teachers be afraid to carry out their functions as nation builders in fear of a potential violent backlash.
I believe that what is lacking in our society is an ‘all hands on deck’ approach in our society by our parents, religious leaders, politicians and civic organizations. However, we must invest appropriately in the education of our children to acquire the requisite skill-set, diversifying our economy to provide opportunities for both educated and technical Bahamians, taking the necessary steps to reduce our national debt and deficit as well as implementing a progressive tax system in order to move our country forward.
Failure to implement the necessary policies looking at the current environment in which we live begs the questions: Is there light at the end of the tunnel? Should we hope again? Will the Bahamian dream be preserved for future generations? Where do we go from here?
•Arinthia S.Komolafe is an attorney-at-law. Comments can be directed to: arinthia.komolafe@Komolafelaw.com
Feb 02, 2012
thenassauguardian
Where do we go from here? Pt. 2
Thursday, February 2, 2012
As the slow times are not predicted to improve in the near future, Bahamians must now decide whether they want their future in the hands of an indecisive Perry Christie or a decisive Hubert Ingraham... ...As for the Democratic National Alliance (DNA), more experience is needed for the difficult times this country might have to face
Beware of election promises
tribune242 editorial
ELECTION TIME is here again and so are the promises. Promises, we might add, without any reference to the Public Treasury.
Bahamians should be aware of the times in which we live and don't depend on election promises -- even in good times they were just that -- promises that never saw the light of day.
In Grand Bahama, for example, Dr Michael Darville, the PLP's Pineridge candidate, has promised that should his party win the 2012 election, Grand Bahama will not only have a new hospital and all its medical facilities upgraded, but, according to Tanisha Tynes, PLP candidate for East Grand Bahama, her area will have its first junior high school.
National health insurance will be introduced to cover the medical needs of all Bahamians. Dr Darville said the PLP has also been working on a national plan to put the island back on the road to recovery through meaningful investments and programmes to create permanent jobs in tourism and the industrial and agricultural sectors.
It is true that Freeport's needs are great, but despite what PLP candidate Gregory Moss has said, the Bahamas (Grand Bahama included), like the rest of the world, is suffering, not only from its own inefficiencies, but from the global recession.
The World Economic Forum, holding its 42nd meeting in Davos, Switzerland, from January 25-29, closed its meeting on a sombre note. About 1,600 economic and political leaders, including 40 heads of state, discussed their fears that Europe's fiscal crisis could put the entire global economy into recession.
Despite the efforts of the Ministry of Tourism, if people have to cut back on their vacations because their finances are tight, this country's tourist dollar will shrink. Recently, Freeport's once bustling Container Port was forced to lay off several employees because one of its major Mediterranean clients, hit by the international economic situation and loss of business, had to reduce its services. The Hutchison Whampoa group also laid off about 72 employees as a part of its international downsizing "due to the economy and the resulting decline in business". In the UK, about 400 Hutchinson staff lost their jobs.
These layoffs were employees from the Grand Bahama Airport Company, the Freeport Harbour Company and the Freeport Container Port.
So it is wrong for any politician to deny that this country is not also caught up in a global downturn.
"The economy in Grand Bahama is at a place where we are not generating new jobs as fast as they are losing them," said Grand Bahama Chamber of Commerce president John Swain. And, unfortunately, with tourism slow and all tourism dependent businesses in the doldrums, there are few places in Grand Bahama to find work.
All eyes are now fixed on the USA in hopes of an economic improvement there, which might spill over onto Bahamian shores. Until this happens, no politician from any of the parties can make grand promises and try to make constituents believe they can keep them.
Why even in the good times -- before the economic bubble burst -- Mr Christie was unable to fulfil his election promises after he won the government in 2002. At that time, no one imagined that in a few more years the good times would come to a screeching halt.
In 2002, Mr Christie promised National Health Insurance, which even then the country could not afford. He was in government for five years and never delivered on the promised national insurance "so that poor people will stop dying simply because they are too poor to pay for medical attention". Also, before winning the government in 2002, he promised that if elected his government would "transform the hospital (PMH), the flagship for the entire health care system into the first class care facility that it has the potential to become", to "modernise the Sandilands Rehabilitation Centre" and develop a regional hospital in Exuma. None accomplished, and none attempted. They were only election promises.
If these promises could not be kept in the good times, why should voters believe that any political party can guarantee that they can be delivered in the bad times?
The unions, as was to be expected, want to get as much as they can now. They believe that if they don't get what they claim was promised them by the Ingraham government before the election, they will get nothing under the Christie government, should that government win the election. That is probably true. But what the unions have to understand is that no matter which party wins the government, the Public Treasury will dictate who will get salary increases and when.
The voter is now in a privileged position to judge the performances of two five-year term governments -- the Christie government in good times, and the Ingraham government in economically critical times.
As the slow times are not predicted to improve in the near future, Bahamians must now decide whether they want their future in the hands of an indecisive Christie or a decisive Ingraham. As for the DNA, more experience is needed for the difficult times this country might have to face.
February 02, 2012
tribune242 editorial
tribune242 editorial
ELECTION TIME is here again and so are the promises. Promises, we might add, without any reference to the Public Treasury.
Bahamians should be aware of the times in which we live and don't depend on election promises -- even in good times they were just that -- promises that never saw the light of day.
In Grand Bahama, for example, Dr Michael Darville, the PLP's Pineridge candidate, has promised that should his party win the 2012 election, Grand Bahama will not only have a new hospital and all its medical facilities upgraded, but, according to Tanisha Tynes, PLP candidate for East Grand Bahama, her area will have its first junior high school.
National health insurance will be introduced to cover the medical needs of all Bahamians. Dr Darville said the PLP has also been working on a national plan to put the island back on the road to recovery through meaningful investments and programmes to create permanent jobs in tourism and the industrial and agricultural sectors.
It is true that Freeport's needs are great, but despite what PLP candidate Gregory Moss has said, the Bahamas (Grand Bahama included), like the rest of the world, is suffering, not only from its own inefficiencies, but from the global recession.
The World Economic Forum, holding its 42nd meeting in Davos, Switzerland, from January 25-29, closed its meeting on a sombre note. About 1,600 economic and political leaders, including 40 heads of state, discussed their fears that Europe's fiscal crisis could put the entire global economy into recession.
Despite the efforts of the Ministry of Tourism, if people have to cut back on their vacations because their finances are tight, this country's tourist dollar will shrink. Recently, Freeport's once bustling Container Port was forced to lay off several employees because one of its major Mediterranean clients, hit by the international economic situation and loss of business, had to reduce its services. The Hutchison Whampoa group also laid off about 72 employees as a part of its international downsizing "due to the economy and the resulting decline in business". In the UK, about 400 Hutchinson staff lost their jobs.
These layoffs were employees from the Grand Bahama Airport Company, the Freeport Harbour Company and the Freeport Container Port.
So it is wrong for any politician to deny that this country is not also caught up in a global downturn.
"The economy in Grand Bahama is at a place where we are not generating new jobs as fast as they are losing them," said Grand Bahama Chamber of Commerce president John Swain. And, unfortunately, with tourism slow and all tourism dependent businesses in the doldrums, there are few places in Grand Bahama to find work.
All eyes are now fixed on the USA in hopes of an economic improvement there, which might spill over onto Bahamian shores. Until this happens, no politician from any of the parties can make grand promises and try to make constituents believe they can keep them.
Why even in the good times -- before the economic bubble burst -- Mr Christie was unable to fulfil his election promises after he won the government in 2002. At that time, no one imagined that in a few more years the good times would come to a screeching halt.
In 2002, Mr Christie promised National Health Insurance, which even then the country could not afford. He was in government for five years and never delivered on the promised national insurance "so that poor people will stop dying simply because they are too poor to pay for medical attention". Also, before winning the government in 2002, he promised that if elected his government would "transform the hospital (PMH), the flagship for the entire health care system into the first class care facility that it has the potential to become", to "modernise the Sandilands Rehabilitation Centre" and develop a regional hospital in Exuma. None accomplished, and none attempted. They were only election promises.
If these promises could not be kept in the good times, why should voters believe that any political party can guarantee that they can be delivered in the bad times?
The unions, as was to be expected, want to get as much as they can now. They believe that if they don't get what they claim was promised them by the Ingraham government before the election, they will get nothing under the Christie government, should that government win the election. That is probably true. But what the unions have to understand is that no matter which party wins the government, the Public Treasury will dictate who will get salary increases and when.
The voter is now in a privileged position to judge the performances of two five-year term governments -- the Christie government in good times, and the Ingraham government in economically critical times.
As the slow times are not predicted to improve in the near future, Bahamians must now decide whether they want their future in the hands of an indecisive Christie or a decisive Ingraham. As for the DNA, more experience is needed for the difficult times this country might have to face.
February 02, 2012
tribune242 editorial
...please inspire and empower our youth to rise up and emancipate themselves from mental slavery, as the late Bob Marley said... or else, all we may be left with is black history with black future in serious jeopardy
Black history is great, but what about black future?
By Neals J. Chitan
Over the past 30 years, I have always been involved in either planning or speaking at black history events in Canada, the USA and England.
It is the time of the year when we look back at the intense struggles and challenges faced by our people, while also celebrating our achievement and immense involvement in the establishment and development of what we now see as modern civilization.
And so, I enjoy singing the praises of our people who have risen from the physical, emotional and mental torture of slavery and confinement to now the White House, where a black family serves its nation as its first black American presidential family.
I salute those who, because of their hatred and intolerance for human injustice and indignity, have toiled alongside us in our march to freedom and justice. To those of other races who itch because of racial profiling and harassment, which render our North American statistics of imprisoned black males unreasonable in its ratio to other races, we say thank you.
However, we have to position our history well within the overall scheme of things. History is an open text book from which we learn how to proceed in the future. It is what gives us our bearings and reference point that will influence us to either sadly repeat the past, or to use it and the coping strategies developed to carve out an amazing future.
It is with much disheartenment that I respond to black students and young adults on a daily basis, as I ask them about their future plans. The vast majority of our children are lost without direction. Physically free now, but still trapped within their minds, they simple answer “Dunno” for “I don’t know” when asked about what college or university or even what career they will pursue.
The juvenile impatience and fast paced life of 21st century urban living have robbed our children of a planned future. For many, driven by the thirst of instant gratification, they want their money now and have no time to wait to pursue years of secondary and tertiary education. Acute hopelessness has invaded the inner fibre of our black youth causing them to resort to a mere day by day existence, as they see their friends locked up behind bars or fall to the bullet.
Many of our youth have actually stated that they prefer to “enjoy” life now since there is no certainty that they will live to enter or finish university. And so in pain I exclaim, “Give us our black history, tell us the stories of the past, but please inspire and empower our youth to rise up and emancipate themselves from mental slavery, as the late Bob Marley said, or else, all we may be left with is black history with black future in serious jeopardy.”
February 2, 2012
caribbeannewsnow
By Neals J. Chitan
Over the past 30 years, I have always been involved in either planning or speaking at black history events in Canada, the USA and England.
It is the time of the year when we look back at the intense struggles and challenges faced by our people, while also celebrating our achievement and immense involvement in the establishment and development of what we now see as modern civilization.
And so, I enjoy singing the praises of our people who have risen from the physical, emotional and mental torture of slavery and confinement to now the White House, where a black family serves its nation as its first black American presidential family.
I salute those who, because of their hatred and intolerance for human injustice and indignity, have toiled alongside us in our march to freedom and justice. To those of other races who itch because of racial profiling and harassment, which render our North American statistics of imprisoned black males unreasonable in its ratio to other races, we say thank you.
However, we have to position our history well within the overall scheme of things. History is an open text book from which we learn how to proceed in the future. It is what gives us our bearings and reference point that will influence us to either sadly repeat the past, or to use it and the coping strategies developed to carve out an amazing future.
It is with much disheartenment that I respond to black students and young adults on a daily basis, as I ask them about their future plans. The vast majority of our children are lost without direction. Physically free now, but still trapped within their minds, they simple answer “Dunno” for “I don’t know” when asked about what college or university or even what career they will pursue.
The juvenile impatience and fast paced life of 21st century urban living have robbed our children of a planned future. For many, driven by the thirst of instant gratification, they want their money now and have no time to wait to pursue years of secondary and tertiary education. Acute hopelessness has invaded the inner fibre of our black youth causing them to resort to a mere day by day existence, as they see their friends locked up behind bars or fall to the bullet.
Many of our youth have actually stated that they prefer to “enjoy” life now since there is no certainty that they will live to enter or finish university. And so in pain I exclaim, “Give us our black history, tell us the stories of the past, but please inspire and empower our youth to rise up and emancipate themselves from mental slavery, as the late Bob Marley said, or else, all we may be left with is black history with black future in serious jeopardy.”
February 2, 2012
caribbeannewsnow
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
...are there any ‘sexy’ or especially thought-provoking campaigns that should be more closely watched in the upcoming general election?
Sexy races to watch pt. 1
Consider this
By Philip C. Galanis
Jan 30, 2012
thenassauguardian
Sexy races to watch pt.2
Consider this
By Philip C. Galanis
The three major political parties have named their entire rosters of 38 candidates for the upcoming general election, which, from all present indications, seems destined for the middle of April to early May. That is, of course, unless the prime minister decides to irreverently ignore the Lenten season which runs from February 22 to April 8, 2012, something he did in 1997 when general elections were held on March 14. On that occasion, the FNM won 34 seats to the PLP’s six, establishing the precedent to disregard the Lenten season for political expediency, with no disadvantage to the FNM.
This week we would like to Consider This…given the current compilation of candidates, are there any ‘sexy’ or especially thought-provoking campaigns that should be more closely watched in the upcoming skirmish? We can think of several and suggest that those worth watching closely are Bamboo Town, Montagu, Fort Charlotte, Long Island, The Exumas and Ragged Island and both Andros seats.
Bamboo Town
Bamboo Town is perhaps the sexiest of all races and is shaping up to be perhaps the most interesting race to watch. Absolutely none of the candidates now drafted will actually represent the party to which they initially belonged. They are all transplants. Branville McCartney, the leader of the newly-formed Democratic National Alliance (DNA) not long ago was a FNM minister. The Progressive Liberal Party’s (PLP) standard bearer, Renward Wells, until recently, was the leader of the National Development Party (NDP) before joining and being nominated by the PLP. Before recently joining the FNM, its candidate, Cassius Stuart, was a founding member and the leader of the Bahamas Democratic Movement which was formed in 1998. Craig Butler, the independent candidate, was an officer of the PLP until recently being denied a nomination by his former party. So, each of these candidates began his political career wearing other colors.
The person with the most to lose is Branville McCartney, because, as leader of the DNA, if he loses, by convention of the Westminster parliamentary system which we follow, he should resign as that party’s leader. That scenario would be even more interesting if some of his fellow candidates win their seats and he does not. Supposedly, the successful candidates, if any, would have to elect a new leader from those who are successful. In this particular battle, McCartney must have calculated that his former FNM votes could quite likely be cannibalized by the FNM.
There are several important considerations here. First, in the 2007 election, the PLP did not contest Bamboo Town. In that election, as presently constituted, the FNM polled 1,261 votes as opposed to independent candidate Tennyson Wells’ 999 votes. It is reasonable to assume that most of those were cast by PLP supporters who did not have a ‘horse’ in the race. Secondly, in its present incarnation, Bamboo Town has six polling divisions that were previously in the Kennedy constituency. In 2007, in those polling divisions, the PLP received 835 votes against the FNM’s 730. Hence, again as presently constituted, the combined PLP/independent votes would have totaled 1,834 compared to the FNM’s 1,991.
The real test here will be how many of Bran’s FNM voters last time will support him this time around, and will Cassius be able to attract sufficient support to win or will he split the FNM vote which will then work to Renward’s advantage? And, finally, how well will Craig Butler fare? Bamboo Town will be the ‘mother of all races’ to watch in 2012.
Montagu
Montagu is also garnering intense interest. This seat has always been represented by the FNM standard bearer. The current candidates are Ben Albury (DNA), Richard Lightbourne (FNM), and Frank Smith (PLP). The most amazing development in this constituency is that, while it is called Montagu, there have been significant changes. Montagu is now comprised of 12 polling divisions from St. Thomas More, where last time the FNM and PLP polled 1,359 and 1,508 votes, respectively; five polling divisions from Montagu, where the FNM and PLP polled 1,086 and 330 votes, respectively; and one polling division from Marathon where the FNM and PLP polled 81 and 145 votes, respectively. Based on the total votes cast in 2007, the FNM and PLP polled 2,526 and 1,983 votes, respectively, and assuming that all things remain equal, the FNM would appear to have a decided advantage by 543 votes.
However, Frank Smith has great personal appeal with an effective ground campaign and superlative ‘street smarts’, while Richard Lightbourne is generally perceived to be a lackluster candidate. The spoiler factor here will be important because Ben Albury is also a very attractive candidate and will likely cannibalize FNM votes. Despite the apparent FNM advantage here, this contest will have more to do with personal appeal and voter connectivity than brand loyalty. This will be a fascinating race to follow.
Fort Charlotte
Fort Charlotte will be another very interesting race. The veteran Zhivargo Laing (FNM), and newcomers Dr. Andre Rollins (PLP) and Mark Humes, chairman of the DNA, will contest that seat, which is presently represented by Alfred Sears (PLP). This constituency is also now a composite of most of the polling divisions of Fort Charlotte (nine polling divisions or parts thereof), two polling divisions from Killarney and a part of Killarney polling division number two. Based on the 2007 election results, as presently constituted, last time the FNM and PLP polled 1,637 and 1,700 votes, respectively. These figures do not include the parts of the polling divisions that have been changed.
While this race should be won by the PLP it is too close to call particularly given the campaign experience of the FNM’s veteran candidate, albeit he was rejected in Fort Charlotte in 2002, versus the rookie factor of the PLP and DNA candidates. Furthermore, it can be reasonably assumed that regardless of the reason for Zhivargo’s move from Marco City in Freeport to Fort Charlotte, Ingraham has made a calculated wager that he would like to ensure a victory for his “erstwhile son” – a victory that was questionable in Marco City.
Conclusion
The prime minister realizes that if he is to form the next government, he has to keep Bamboo Town and Montagu in the FNM win column and would like to increase his number by adding Fort Charlotte, particularly because he believes that he will lose ground in Grand Bahama given his government’s dismal performance there and that island’s anemic economic profile during the last five years.
Next week, we will review the prospects for the ‘sexy’ and significant races on Andros, on which the prime minister has publically declared he has set his sights, Long Island, and The Exumas and Ragged Island.
Jan 30, 2012
thenassauguardian
Sexy races to watch pt.2
Friday, January 27, 2012
Branville McCartney - Democratic National Alliance (DNA) leader's gross error in judgement in relations to his party’s MICAL candidate, Delano Munroe ...who is facing a criminal charge... ...stealing by reason of employment...
The DNA leader’s mistake
Branville McCartney, leader of the Democratic National Alliance (DNA), is new to politics. He is just finishing his first term as a member of Parliament. Yet, he leads a party which hopes to have a permanent presence in The Bahamas.
In a story in The Nassau Guardian on Wednesday the DNA leader admitted that he knew that his party’s MICAL candidate, Delano Munroe, was facing a criminal charge when Munroe was made a candidate by the party. Munroe has been charged with stealing by reason of employment.
All individuals are innocent until proven guilty in a court of law in our country. Munroe should be allowed to defend his name in court and should not be in frontline politics while this matter is pending. McCartney should know this. He is an attorney, a MP and a party leader.
“We are looking into it and we will make a statement once we have looked into it further,” said McCartney on Wednesday.
He said the party will determine the future of Munroe’s candidacy pending the investigation and the eventual outcome of the court case.
Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham and Opposition Leader Perry Christie have been in the House of Assembly since 1977. They have been MPs for parts of five different decades. A component of McCartney’s appeal to some voters is that he is a ‘fresh face’.
The major criticism of McCartney, however, is that he does not have the experience to be prime minister. Consequently, those who are considering voting for his fledgling party are evaluating all of his decisions to determine if this criticism is true or not. Selecting and keeping Munroe as a candidate does not engender trust among these potential supporters of the DNA.
Running candidates with complicated lives can cost votes. In the 2007 general election the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) ran Shane Gibson after embarrassing pictures of Gibson and Anna Nicole Smith in an embrace were published in The Tribune. Gibson won his Golden Gates seat, but the PLP lost the election.
The Free National Movement (FNM) has continued to attack Gibson since 2007 on his record as the minister of housing in the last PLP administration, questioning his administration of the affairs of the ministry. Yet, the PLP has nominated Gibson again to be a candidate in the 2012 general election.
Reasonable observers would agree that the Anna Nicole photos caused the PLP great embarrassment and votes. The PLP, for some reason, sticks with Gibson. We are not saying that he did anything wrong. In politics some people simply become liabilities because of negative voter perception of the issues they face. Leaders who cannot ensure that these individuals serve from behind-the-scenes, or not at all, demonstrate that they are either not strong enough to make this happen or that they are out of touch with the public mood.
McCartney has made a mistake. He should inform Munroe that he should take a break from the frontline until the matter is resolved. If cleared of the charge, Munroe would be able to reenter frontline politics and state his case as a potential political candidate.
Jan 27, 2012
Thursday, January 26, 2012
If doctors and politicians want to attract medical tourism to The Bahamas, they need first to inspire confidence in Bahamian medical services among Bahamians themselves... ...Putting the legislation that already exists to work on behalf of the public interest by providing quality assurance and oversight of healthcare delivery is the obvious place to start
A question of medical trust
Tough Call - tribune242
IN a recent Tribune article, heart specialist Dr Conville Brown complained about Bahamians spending millions of dollars in the US for medical care that could easily be obtained at home.
He was arguing in favour of local healthcare providers building a large-scale medical tourism industry.
"The same things that all tourists do," he said, "the medical tourist has to do. (And) if the ownership is Bahamian, then the economy really wins because those funds will stay here."
But at the same time, he felt constrained to point out that Bahamians were offsetting the income from foreigners by flying off to get treatment in the US.
"We boost their economy big time. We are reverse medical tourists. Several hospitals in South Florida say their biggest international clientele is from the Bahamas."
Medical tourism is a multi-billion-dollar growth industry that hospitals, doctors and tourism marketers around the world are eager to tap into. By some accounts, more than half a million Americans travel to other countries for medical treatment - partly for cost reasons and partly to take advantage of procedures not yet approved in the US.
There can be no disagreement with Dr Brown's position in terms of the Bahamian economy. And for patients, the benefits are equally obvious and compelling. If Bahamians obtained their medical treatment at home, they would significantly reduce the logistics, expense and stress of being treated abroad.
Why then, do so many of us spend so much money overseas for treatments that are available right here at home? We can answer that question fairly confidently - given a choice, patients will seek medical care from the doctors, hospitals and clinics they trust the most.
This is a personal decision, and it is usually an informed decision. Patients must feel assured that the doctors and facilities they choose are both accountable and able to provide the best quality care they can afford.
So what processes do we have in place to convey such assurances to Bahamians?
Well, there are three statutory bodies that are capable of providing quality assurance and oversight to the Bahamian healthcare sector.
The Public Health Authority has managed government hospitals and clinics since 1999, under the direction of the Minister of Health. As an independent public body, the Authority is responsible for planning, policy, monitoring, evaluation, and management, as well as programme development and oversight.
However, the PHA's legislation has no provision for the investigation of complaints about the healthcare facilities managed by the Authority. Instead, PHA patients are advised to contact the "patient representative" to discuss any concerns they may have.
The Hospital and Health Care Facilities Board was created by Parliament in 1998 to license private hospitals and clinics. This legislation does include a specific mandate to investigate complaints into the "diagnosis, management and treatment" of any patient.
Physicians are the primary providers of healthcare, whether in the public or private sector, and since 1974 they have been licensed and regulated by the Medical Council. According to its website, the council was established "to regulate the medical profession, to upgrade doctors through continuing education requirements, and to safeguard the public through receiving and disposing of complaints".
However, despite the fact that it represents one of the richest professions, the council is made up of a handful of volunteers with virtually no administrative staff. Their website, for example, includes dead and departed physicians on its registry.
So do the records of these three bodies help to inspire confidence and trust in the delivery of healthcare services in the Bahamas?
Well, it would be useful to know how many complaints have been processed by the PHA's "patient representative" and how they were resolved, but unfortunately that information is not publicly available. As for the Hospital Board and the Medical Council, a summary of the case history of one complaint to these bodies over the past decade is instructive.
In 2004, a complaint was made to the Hospital Board concerning the treatment of a 42-year-old man who unexpectedly died in 2002 in a licensed Bahamian healthcare facility.
The board initially refused to deal with the complaint. But after several board members were replaced in 2005 by then Health Minister Dr Marcus Bethel, he ordered that the complaint be investigated. This order by Dr Bethel more than six years ago is the high-point of the case.
The 2005 board met with the complainant's legal and medical representatives in 2006. Afterwards, the Board chairman advised that "since the patient was dead, the file should be closed."
The board did, however, reconsider, and an investigatory panel was to be formed. However, the government changed before this happened.
The new government reinstated the 2004 board chairman, and other members. This chairman reported to a Rotary Club meeting in 2008 that the board didn't want to investigate any complaints, or "be involved in that detailed level of work".
The board said it would seek to have its enabling legislation amended, to remove the investigative requirements, and also to remove the requirement for licensed facilities to report deaths occurring on their premises - a legal mandate never complied with, and never enforced, over the board's entire lifetime.
(It should also be noted that over the past 14 years the board has issued only two "annual" reports to Parliament, something which it is required to do by law every year. And even obtaining copies of those two reports presents enormous challenges).
At a public meeting in 2008, Health Minister Dr Hubert Minnis also promised to investigate the 2004 complaint. But it is now 2012 and the board has taken no action whatsoever. Neither has it ever responded to the complainant.
As for the Medical Council, it received a complaint about the same patient's treatment and care in 2008. The disciplinary committee of the Medical Council met twice on the matter, and three years ago, then council chairman Dr Duane Sands assured Tough Call that: "There is no stonewalling. We take this very, very seriously because we want to ensure that the public will be well-served at the end of the day by this groundbreaking precedent."
He also told me that the medical act (which has been stalled for almost a decade now) was being strengthened to deal with "a finite group of people who are discrediting the profession without any real repercussions - from charging extortionary fees to providing less than appropriate care".
However, in December of last year, the Medical Council's disciplinary committee suspended the 2004 complaint investigation indefinitely.
The council decided it could not proceed because of an ex-parte injunction granted by a Supreme Court judge against the disciplinary committee in 2009, on the application of a doctor concerned in the matter. Since then, the Medical Council has taken no steps either to have the injunction removed or to proceed with the investigation.
The injunction itself is a curious feature in this story. It is perhaps "the one and only" injunction to be granted by one Supreme Court judge against another Supreme Court judge (who sits in his judicial capacity as a member of the statutory disciplinary committee).
Kerzner's branding of the Ocean Club as the "One and Only" has given a high profile to the Bahamas as an attractive destination, but the "one and only" injunction against a Supreme Court judge could have a converse affect on the Bahamas as a destination for medical tourism - quite apart from the collateral damage inflicted on the public oversight function of the Medical Council.
If doctors and politicians want to attract medical tourism to the Bahamas, they need first to inspire confidence in Bahamian medical services among Bahamians themselves. Putting the legislation that already exists to work on behalf of the public interest by providing quality assurance and oversight of healthcare delivery is the obvious place to start.
* What do you think? Send comments to larry@tribunemedia.net or visit bahamapundit.com.
January 25, 2012
tribune242
Tough Call - tribune242
IN a recent Tribune article, heart specialist Dr Conville Brown complained about Bahamians spending millions of dollars in the US for medical care that could easily be obtained at home.
He was arguing in favour of local healthcare providers building a large-scale medical tourism industry.
"The same things that all tourists do," he said, "the medical tourist has to do. (And) if the ownership is Bahamian, then the economy really wins because those funds will stay here."
But at the same time, he felt constrained to point out that Bahamians were offsetting the income from foreigners by flying off to get treatment in the US.
"We boost their economy big time. We are reverse medical tourists. Several hospitals in South Florida say their biggest international clientele is from the Bahamas."
Medical tourism is a multi-billion-dollar growth industry that hospitals, doctors and tourism marketers around the world are eager to tap into. By some accounts, more than half a million Americans travel to other countries for medical treatment - partly for cost reasons and partly to take advantage of procedures not yet approved in the US.
There can be no disagreement with Dr Brown's position in terms of the Bahamian economy. And for patients, the benefits are equally obvious and compelling. If Bahamians obtained their medical treatment at home, they would significantly reduce the logistics, expense and stress of being treated abroad.
Why then, do so many of us spend so much money overseas for treatments that are available right here at home? We can answer that question fairly confidently - given a choice, patients will seek medical care from the doctors, hospitals and clinics they trust the most.
This is a personal decision, and it is usually an informed decision. Patients must feel assured that the doctors and facilities they choose are both accountable and able to provide the best quality care they can afford.
So what processes do we have in place to convey such assurances to Bahamians?
Well, there are three statutory bodies that are capable of providing quality assurance and oversight to the Bahamian healthcare sector.
The Public Health Authority has managed government hospitals and clinics since 1999, under the direction of the Minister of Health. As an independent public body, the Authority is responsible for planning, policy, monitoring, evaluation, and management, as well as programme development and oversight.
However, the PHA's legislation has no provision for the investigation of complaints about the healthcare facilities managed by the Authority. Instead, PHA patients are advised to contact the "patient representative" to discuss any concerns they may have.
The Hospital and Health Care Facilities Board was created by Parliament in 1998 to license private hospitals and clinics. This legislation does include a specific mandate to investigate complaints into the "diagnosis, management and treatment" of any patient.
Physicians are the primary providers of healthcare, whether in the public or private sector, and since 1974 they have been licensed and regulated by the Medical Council. According to its website, the council was established "to regulate the medical profession, to upgrade doctors through continuing education requirements, and to safeguard the public through receiving and disposing of complaints".
However, despite the fact that it represents one of the richest professions, the council is made up of a handful of volunteers with virtually no administrative staff. Their website, for example, includes dead and departed physicians on its registry.
So do the records of these three bodies help to inspire confidence and trust in the delivery of healthcare services in the Bahamas?
Well, it would be useful to know how many complaints have been processed by the PHA's "patient representative" and how they were resolved, but unfortunately that information is not publicly available. As for the Hospital Board and the Medical Council, a summary of the case history of one complaint to these bodies over the past decade is instructive.
In 2004, a complaint was made to the Hospital Board concerning the treatment of a 42-year-old man who unexpectedly died in 2002 in a licensed Bahamian healthcare facility.
The board initially refused to deal with the complaint. But after several board members were replaced in 2005 by then Health Minister Dr Marcus Bethel, he ordered that the complaint be investigated. This order by Dr Bethel more than six years ago is the high-point of the case.
The 2005 board met with the complainant's legal and medical representatives in 2006. Afterwards, the Board chairman advised that "since the patient was dead, the file should be closed."
The board did, however, reconsider, and an investigatory panel was to be formed. However, the government changed before this happened.
The new government reinstated the 2004 board chairman, and other members. This chairman reported to a Rotary Club meeting in 2008 that the board didn't want to investigate any complaints, or "be involved in that detailed level of work".
The board said it would seek to have its enabling legislation amended, to remove the investigative requirements, and also to remove the requirement for licensed facilities to report deaths occurring on their premises - a legal mandate never complied with, and never enforced, over the board's entire lifetime.
(It should also be noted that over the past 14 years the board has issued only two "annual" reports to Parliament, something which it is required to do by law every year. And even obtaining copies of those two reports presents enormous challenges).
At a public meeting in 2008, Health Minister Dr Hubert Minnis also promised to investigate the 2004 complaint. But it is now 2012 and the board has taken no action whatsoever. Neither has it ever responded to the complainant.
As for the Medical Council, it received a complaint about the same patient's treatment and care in 2008. The disciplinary committee of the Medical Council met twice on the matter, and three years ago, then council chairman Dr Duane Sands assured Tough Call that: "There is no stonewalling. We take this very, very seriously because we want to ensure that the public will be well-served at the end of the day by this groundbreaking precedent."
He also told me that the medical act (which has been stalled for almost a decade now) was being strengthened to deal with "a finite group of people who are discrediting the profession without any real repercussions - from charging extortionary fees to providing less than appropriate care".
However, in December of last year, the Medical Council's disciplinary committee suspended the 2004 complaint investigation indefinitely.
The council decided it could not proceed because of an ex-parte injunction granted by a Supreme Court judge against the disciplinary committee in 2009, on the application of a doctor concerned in the matter. Since then, the Medical Council has taken no steps either to have the injunction removed or to proceed with the investigation.
The injunction itself is a curious feature in this story. It is perhaps "the one and only" injunction to be granted by one Supreme Court judge against another Supreme Court judge (who sits in his judicial capacity as a member of the statutory disciplinary committee).
Kerzner's branding of the Ocean Club as the "One and Only" has given a high profile to the Bahamas as an attractive destination, but the "one and only" injunction against a Supreme Court judge could have a converse affect on the Bahamas as a destination for medical tourism - quite apart from the collateral damage inflicted on the public oversight function of the Medical Council.
If doctors and politicians want to attract medical tourism to the Bahamas, they need first to inspire confidence in Bahamian medical services among Bahamians themselves. Putting the legislation that already exists to work on behalf of the public interest by providing quality assurance and oversight of healthcare delivery is the obvious place to start.
* What do you think? Send comments to larry@tribunemedia.net or visit bahamapundit.com.
January 25, 2012
tribune242
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