…are there any ‘sexy’ or especially thought-provoking political campaigns that should be more closely watched in the Family Islands this general election season?

Sexy races to watch pt.2

Consider this

By Philip C. Galanis

Last week we reviewed what we believe will be the ‘sexy’ general election races to watch in New Providence, namely Bamboo Town, Montagu and Fort Charlotte.

This week we would like to Consider This…are there any ‘sexy’ or especially thought-provoking campaigns that should be more closely watched in the Family Islands?  We can think of several and suggest that those worth watching closely are Long Island, The Exumas and Ragged Island and both Andros seats.

Long Island

Long Island has traditionally been a seat where men have dominated that island’s politics.  If Loretta Butler-Turner, the FNM’s candidate, wins there, she will score a historic achievement because there has never been a female Member of Parliament on Long Island.  Whether her claim that her grandmother, Sir Milo Butler’s wife Lady Caroline, is from Long Island will be sufficient to gain her the victory remains to be seen.  It is more likely that her party affiliation will play a greater role in her successful bid than any familial connection to the island.

Mario Cartwright possibly represents the DNA’s best chance for winning a seat in the upcoming foray.  Mario was born on Long Island, lives there and is a known quantity.  His father ran for the PLP on Long Island and whether he is able to succeed where his father did not remains to be seen.

Alex Storr, the PLP’s Long Island standard bearer, is neither from there nor does the PLP have a track record of successfully convincing Long Islanders that a PLP should represent them.  He has a challenge ahead for his candidacy to gain sufficient traction in order to prevail.

Mangrove Cay and South Andros

None of the candidates in Mangrove Cay and South Andros provide any real inspiration to the people there.  Picewell Forbes, the incumbent PLP Member of Parliament, has not been particularly star-studded in Parliament, and his representation of that constituency during the last five years has been lackluster.

Ronald Bosfield, the FNM’s standard bearer and the winner of the by-election in 1997, will best be remembered during his last outing as a nondescript and uninspiring sleeper.

Whitney Bastian, the independent candidate and one-term Member of Parliament for South Andros, also has considerable challenges to conquer.

Wayde Forbes Ferguson, the DNA candidate, is as generally unknown as the other candidates are uninspiring.  None of the candidates are thrilling prospects for the people of the constituency that was long-represented by Sir Lynden, who, despite his notable national contributions and legacy, left little of note for his constituents during his many years as their representative.  The race in Mangrove Cay and South Andros will, perhaps more than any other, represent a melee of the mediocre.

North Andros and the Berry Islands

The exceptionally impressive candidates in North Andros are at polar opposites to their colleagues in South Andros.  Each of the offerings for the three major parties is remarkable in his own right.  Captain Randy Butler (DNA), Dr. Perry Gomez (PLP) and Desmond Bannister (FNM) are all stellar candidates, so impressive that it could cause one to wonder in amazement as to whether, at least in the case of the two major parties, the candidates in North Andros were selected by the same persons who chose their South Andros counterparts.

Given his impressive ministerial performance over the past five years, Desmond Bannister is the candidate to beat.  He is perhaps the best candidate that the FNM has ever fielded in that constituency although he has taken a calculated risk of abdicating what would have been a safe seat for him in Carmichael.  Desmond Bannister was born in Staniard Creek, grew up there and in Mastic Point and has strong family ties in the constituency, which he hopes will contribute to his success.

Dr. Perry Gomez is a prominent medical doctor who is best known for his sustained efforts in the battle against AIDS in The Bahamas.  His roots go deep in the Berry Islands and he also hopes that this fact will not be lost on the voters of North Andros.

Captain Randy Butler, the DNA candidate, is a high profile aviation businessman who heads up SkyBahamas and represents the kind of individual who would bring tremendous business experience to Parliament and governance.

This race will be very interesting to watch, although we think that Desmond Bannister presently has the advantage.

The Exumas and Ragged Island

The PLP’s candidate for The Exumas and Ragged Island, Anthony Moss, who is the parliamentary incumbent, is also lackluster, does not excite the voter and has spent a ‘sleepy’ decade in Parliament. His selection is shrouded in controversy and some of the island’s stalwart PLP supporters still question whether the selection process was open, transparent and democratic.  Whether some of the prominent PLP stalwarts on Exuma will support him will be an important factor in how that contest will be played out.  George Smith’s views about Moss’ parliamentary performance and his electability are well-known and to what extent the party leadership will attempt to reconcile with Smith’s views and that of other noted PLP supporters on Exuma who disagree with Moss’ candidacy will be revealing.

Phenton Neymour, the current FNM Member of Parliament for South Beach has apparently determined that he has been a failed MP in that constituency and has opted to move to Exuma for fear that he might not be re-elected in South Beach.  Notwithstanding this, Neymour is personable, outgoing and confident and the FNM party machinery will be in full gear for his candidacy.

Floyd Armbrister, the DNA’s candidate, was born in Steventon, Exuma and is a bright, talkative, aggressive individual who will likely take votes from disgruntled and disaffected PLPs.

Reginald Smith, the independent candidate, is a former ZNS broadcaster, and is currently a realtor on Exuma.  He is smart, affable, and speaks with a rich accent.  Born in Georgetown, he is an attractive candidate who promises to raise the standard of debate and speak to the vision that Exuma could play an important role in the development of a modern Bahamas.

The contest in The Exumas and Ragged Island is shaping up to be a race best described as one where it appears that the voters don’t like what they have and are not confident of what they might get.  The outcome will depend on whether the candidates can count on party loyalties and how the significant number of workers from Long Island who have moved into the Exuma Cays since the last general election will influence the vote.

Conclusion

The stage has been set and the only truism is that “it ain’t long now”!  It will be interesting to see, despite the candidates who have already been presented, whether there will be last minute adjustments in candidates for any number of presently unforeseen reasons.  The only critical date for concretizing any uncertainty in that regard is nomination day.  Nonetheless, there are many sexy races, and in the words of a fallen master politician, “The world is watching”!

 

•Philip C. Galanis is the managing partner of HLB Galanis & Co., Chartered Accountants, Forensic & Litigation Support Services. He served 15 years in Parliament.  Please send your comments to:pgalanis@gmail.com

Feb 06, 2012

thenassauguardian

Sexy races to watch pt. 1

Caribbean Blog International

Political activity is heating up in The Bahamas, where a general election is due soon... ...On the current standing, there could well be another one-term administration in the works with the Hubert Ingraham-led Free National Movement (FNM) seeming to be highly vulnerable... ...Although investment activity in tourism, its leading sector, is picking up, the negative impact of the global downturn is still being felt in The Islands

Government's Paying The Price For Recession

By Dennis Morrison, jamaica-gleaner Contributor:



One does not have to be a student of political economy to understand how the global financial turmoil of the last four years has shaken up the political landscape.

In the United Kingdom, the Gordon Brown-led Labour Party was the first in a string of casualties arising from the sharp economic downturn which is still reverberating across the globe. It seems not to matter whether ruling parties are of right or left orientation, as dissatisfied voters express their anger by discarding incumbents.

Across the globe, the political environment remains volatile under the impact of widespread joblessness, record mortgage foreclosures, and the massive destruction of wealth.

The prospect that there will be no early relief, and the seeming intractable nature of the European debt crisis, mean that the sour political mood will persist.

In America, the Obama administration and the Democrats have borne the brunt of voter dissatisfaction, even though they inherited the crisis and had acted rapidly to halt the precipitous slide in the economy.

In mid-term elections at the end of 2010, American voters turned on the congressional Democrats and booted them out, as economic malaise deepened, and the ranks of the unemployed swelled. With the slow pace of the recovery and gridlock in Congress, the 2012 elections could see another wild swing of the political pendulum.

In the presidential race, the weakness of the Republican candidates could prove decisive, although President Obama's re-election chances are seen to be heavily tied to the pace of improvement in the job market.

gov'ts toppled

Governments were toppled in Belgium, the Netherlands, Iceland, Hungary, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. In France, the second-largest economy in Europe, presidential elections are due in April, and the latest opinion polls are showing President Nicolas Sarkozy trailing his main rival from the Socialist Party. While it is too soon to count him out, his ratings are being depressed by the slow progress in settling measures to stave off the debt crisis in the Eurozone.

Farther afield, the Opposition Democratic Party of Japan won a historic landslide victory in 2009, reflecting deep economic anxieties in that country which have still not eased. Japan's economy has been undergoing two decades of lethargic growth and is the cause of its continued political fragility.

Latin American countries were among the best-performing economies in the turbulent conditions since 2008, recovering fast from the recession and returning to strong growth. A region which is usually highly volatile, the political mood in Latin America has mirrored the economic stability experienced in recent times. Incumbents in Argentina and Brazil were returned to office, and in Brazil, in particular, the anti-poverty programmes of the Lula administration brought political stability.

Governments in the Caribbean have not been immune to the political backlash from the recession. The ruling People's Progressive Party in Guyana won its fifth consecutive term, helped no doubt by the fact that the Guyanese economy had fared better than most in the region. In St Lucia, the incumbent United Workers Party was thrown out after one term, weighed down by political wrangling and leadership issues, but more important, by difficult economic circumstances.

Role in jlp defeat

History was made in Jamaica with the Jamaica Labour Party administration being the first to have the dubious distinction of losing after one term in office since adult suffrage in 1944. Analysts have put arrogance and corruption at the top of the list of factors responsible for the party's defeat.

I would argue, however, that the fact that the Jamaican economy shrank by more than five per cent in the past four years and job losses climbed to more than 100,000 was a more powerful influence on the electoral outcome.

Political activity is heating up in The Bahamas, where elections are due later this year. On the current standing, there could well be another one-term administration in the works with the Hubert Ingraham-led Free National Movement seeming to be highly vulnerable. Although investment activity in tourism, its leading sector, is picking up, the negative impact of the global downturn is still being felt.

Barbados' election cycle runs to January 2013, and the incumbent government there will also be navigating strong economic headwinds.

Growth-inducing strategies and activities that generate employment are not only important to get regional economies moving again but will influence the political tide in the Caribbean. Politicians will have to show their skills at policymaking and management to survive the tide.


Dennis Morrison is an economist. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.

February 5, 2012

jamaica-gleaner

Caribbean Blog International

I believe that what is lacking in our Bahamian society is an ‘all hands on deck’ approach in our communities by our parents, religious leaders, politicians and civic organizations... ...we must invest appropriately in the education of our children to acquire the requisite skill-set... diversifying our economy to provide opportunities for both educated and technical Bahamians... taking the necessary steps to reduce our national debt and deficit... as well as implementing a progressive tax system in order to move our country forward

Where do we go from here? pt. 1

By Arinthia S. Komolafe:

The Bahamas like many other nations around the world in this 21st century is plagued with socio-economic challenges that seem to stifle the progress of our nation towards the path that leads to the desired level of peace, prosperity and security for our people.  The economy is certainly uppermost in the minds of our people as we tread through these turbulent times with many looking to the government for solutions to our economic woes.  However, there is a growing concern over the increased level of social degradation that we are experiencing as evidenced by the myriad social issues that we are confronted with daily.  Unfortunately, it appears that our young people continue to be the major casualties of this degradation.  This impact on our youth raises the fundamental question: Are we failing our youth and will we continue to lose successive generations of Bahamians to issues such as poor economic policies, inadequate education and social ills?

 

The current circumstance

At the government level, it appears that little progress has been made in improving both our economy and the educational system in our nation.  The inability of the government to diversify our economy to provide more job opportunities for its people is accelerating the increase in our poverty levels.  The recent global economic downturn has highlighted the inefficiencies of our economic model that is based primarily on the service industry with dependence on financial services and tourism.  It also stresses the regressive nature of our tax code and inefficient methods of collecting government revenue.  Most importantly, it reinforces the harsh reality of our gross dependency on the prosperity of the American and European economies.  The more we witness events unfold in The Bahamas, one can’t help but wonder whether we are regressing rather than progressing.

Over the last five years alone, our national debt has risen to an astounding $4.5 billion, our debt-to-GDP ratio has increased from some 30 percent to approximately 60 percent.  Our deficit currently stands at more than eight percent and the unemployment rate has doubled during the last few years, contributing to the tremendous amount of foreclosures in our nation.  The government has justified its borrowing as the only alternative course of action to prevent a collapse in the Bahamian economy.  However, one wonders whether this was in fact the only option available and if agreed, if the borrowed funds were invested in a manner that benefitted a wide cross-section of Bahamians or just a select few.  The aforementioned statistics suggest that the funds were arguably mismanaged and invested heavily in infrastructural projects that benefitted a small percentage of contractors and companies while the country witnessed and continues to witness increased social degradation.

Being in a position where it was strapped for cash and with revenues down, the government has made minimal investment in social programs comparative to its investment in infrastructural projects and has significantly increased the tax burden on its people in addition to raising the national debt.  It is common knowledge that investment in key social programs is important for the sustenance of our nation and will help minimize the rising social issues that plague our nation.  Focusing on education, it is a given that an educated Bahamas will position itself to play a more vital role on the global stage.  The general consensus still exists that education in various forms including academic, athletic, social and culture among others, provides an individual with an opportunity to pursue a better way of life.  In The Bahamas, it appears that there are classes of Bahamian children who are being denied adequate education, particularly in the public school system.

 

The need for a better education system

The Department of Statistics’ labor force report reveals that two percent of our labor force has had no schooling and six percent has stopped short of a primary education while nine percent of our total work force has not completed secondary education.  The aforesaid percentages suggest that approximately 20 percent of our working population is inadequately equipped academically to compete on a national level, let alone a global level.  There is further evidence that shows that approximately 20 percent of our work force receives a university level education while 10 percent attend some other form of tertiary education.  As a result, 53 percent of our work force attain at the most an education at the secondary level.

Combined with the aforementioned startling statistics is the fact that the national grade average based upon national examination results in 2011 sits at a discontented D average.  Even more disturbing is the fact that the D average includes the private schooling system, which if removed, will probably significantly decrease the national average.  It is reported that the recent examination results evidence that approximately 34 percent of 5,000 plus students sitting the English examination received C or above while some 24 percent who took math received a C or above.  Consequently, 65 percent of our children received an English grade of D or lower while some 75 percent of our children received a grade of D or lower.  The lack of sufficient teachers to teach key subjects such as math, physics, chemistry and other technical courses, has been blamed for these unimpressive statistics.  It is important to ascertain whether sufficient measures are being put in place to encourage more Bahamians to become educators.

In the absence of an aggressive recruitment process, are we exhausting all avenues to engage qualified teachers that will produce the desired results?  Further, what measures are being taken to reduce the overcrowding in our public system to provide for more favorable teacher-student ratios?  If we are serious about preparing the next generation for the future, greater emphasis must be placed upon adequate and quality education of our children.  We must see to it that more of the 53 percent mentioned above have the opportunity to receive tertiary level education and greater opportunities to obtain the same locally.  Of particular note is the long overdue upgrade of The College of The Bahamas to university status.

Investment in infrastructure is absolutely necessary to any society, but a lack of investment in a nation’s citizens and, more importantly, the education of its youth will minimize or eradicate any lasting effect of infrastructural development due to a lack of qualified citizens in society with a propensity to increase social ills.  In this regard, it is welcomed news to hear that the Progressive Liberal Party has committed to doubling the budget allocation to education if it wins the next general election; however, such allotment must be dispensed in an effective manner that will produce favorable results in education.

Many believe that our leaders are bankrupt of ideas to address our failing education system.  The curriculum itself is widely believed to be deficient and outdated.  The lack of adequate education among our youth will inevitably lead to a further increase in social issues and will inevitably increase youth engagement in illegal activities such as the drug trade, guns and arms trafficking and anti-social behavior such as gang violence.

A lie has been sold to our children that the perceived rewards of these activities afford them a lifestyle that may otherwise be unattainable by securing an honest job and obtaining a better way of life through conventional norms.  The level of violence among our youth had increased to such an alarming rate that a school-based policing program was initiated by the Christie administration of 2002-2007.  It is worth noting that the current administration canceled the program in 2007.  However, their subsequent realization of the wisdom of the program in the midst of escalating levels of violence in our schools prompted the re-implementation of the program in 2011.  In today’s Bahamas, our young people should not be faced with the challenge of having a fear of attending school due to violence among their peers; neither should teachers be afraid to carry out their functions as nation builders in fear of a potential violent backlash.

I believe that what is lacking in our society is an ‘all hands on deck’ approach in our society by our parents, religious leaders, politicians and civic organizations.  However, we must invest appropriately in the education of our children to acquire the requisite skill-set, diversifying our economy to provide opportunities for both educated and technical Bahamians, taking the necessary steps to reduce our national debt and deficit as well as implementing a progressive tax system in order to move our country forward.

Failure to implement the necessary policies looking at the current environment in which we live begs the questions: Is there light at the end of the tunnel?  Should we hope again?  Will the Bahamian dream be preserved for future generations?  Where do we go from here?

 

•Arinthia S.Komolafe is an attorney-at-law.  Comments can be directed to: arinthia.komolafe@Komolafelaw.com

Feb 02, 2012

thenassauguardian

Where do we go from here? Pt. 2

Caribbean Blog International

As the slow times are not predicted to improve in the near future, Bahamians must now decide whether they want their future in the hands of an indecisive Perry Christie or a decisive Hubert Ingraham... ...As for the Democratic National Alliance (DNA), more experience is needed for the difficult times this country might have to face

Beware of election promises

tribune242 editorial




ELECTION TIME is here again and so are the promises. Promises, we might add, without any reference to the Public Treasury.

Bahamians should be aware of the times in which we live and don't depend on election promises -- even in good times they were just that -- promises that never saw the light of day.

In Grand Bahama, for example, Dr Michael Darville, the PLP's Pineridge candidate, has promised that should his party win the 2012 election, Grand Bahama will not only have a new hospital and all its medical facilities upgraded, but, according to Tanisha Tynes, PLP candidate for East Grand Bahama, her area will have its first junior high school.

National health insurance will be introduced to cover the medical needs of all Bahamians. Dr Darville said the PLP has also been working on a national plan to put the island back on the road to recovery through meaningful investments and programmes to create permanent jobs in tourism and the industrial and agricultural sectors.

It is true that Freeport's needs are great, but despite what PLP candidate Gregory Moss has said, the Bahamas (Grand Bahama included), like the rest of the world, is suffering, not only from its own inefficiencies, but from the global recession.

The World Economic Forum, holding its 42nd meeting in Davos, Switzerland, from January 25-29, closed its meeting on a sombre note. About 1,600 economic and political leaders, including 40 heads of state, discussed their fears that Europe's fiscal crisis could put the entire global economy into recession.

Despite the efforts of the Ministry of Tourism, if people have to cut back on their vacations because their finances are tight, this country's tourist dollar will shrink. Recently, Freeport's once bustling Container Port was forced to lay off several employees because one of its major Mediterranean clients, hit by the international economic situation and loss of business, had to reduce its services. The Hutchison Whampoa group also laid off about 72 employees as a part of its international downsizing "due to the economy and the resulting decline in business". In the UK, about 400 Hutchinson staff lost their jobs.

These layoffs were employees from the Grand Bahama Airport Company, the Freeport Harbour Company and the Freeport Container Port.

So it is wrong for any politician to deny that this country is not also caught up in a global downturn.

"The economy in Grand Bahama is at a place where we are not generating new jobs as fast as they are losing them," said Grand Bahama Chamber of Commerce president John Swain. And, unfortunately, with tourism slow and all tourism dependent businesses in the doldrums, there are few places in Grand Bahama to find work.

All eyes are now fixed on the USA in hopes of an economic improvement there, which might spill over onto Bahamian shores. Until this happens, no politician from any of the parties can make grand promises and try to make constituents believe they can keep them.

Why even in the good times -- before the economic bubble burst -- Mr Christie was unable to fulfil his election promises after he won the government in 2002. At that time, no one imagined that in a few more years the good times would come to a screeching halt.

In 2002, Mr Christie promised National Health Insurance, which even then the country could not afford. He was in government for five years and never delivered on the promised national insurance "so that poor people will stop dying simply because they are too poor to pay for medical attention". Also, before winning the government in 2002, he promised that if elected his government would "transform the hospital (PMH), the flagship for the entire health care system into the first class care facility that it has the potential to become", to "modernise the Sandilands Rehabilitation Centre" and develop a regional hospital in Exuma. None accomplished, and none attempted. They were only election promises.

If these promises could not be kept in the good times, why should voters believe that any political party can guarantee that they can be delivered in the bad times?

The unions, as was to be expected, want to get as much as they can now. They believe that if they don't get what they claim was promised them by the Ingraham government before the election, they will get nothing under the Christie government, should that government win the election. That is probably true. But what the unions have to understand is that no matter which party wins the government, the Public Treasury will dictate who will get salary increases and when.

The voter is now in a privileged position to judge the performances of two five-year term governments -- the Christie government in good times, and the Ingraham government in economically critical times.

As the slow times are not predicted to improve in the near future, Bahamians must now decide whether they want their future in the hands of an indecisive Christie or a decisive Ingraham. As for the DNA, more experience is needed for the difficult times this country might have to face.

February 02, 2012

tribune242 editorial

Caribbean Blog International

...please inspire and empower our youth to rise up and emancipate themselves from mental slavery, as the late Bob Marley said... or else, all we may be left with is black history with black future in serious jeopardy

Black history is great, but what about black future?

By Neals J. Chitan

Over the past 30 years, I have always been involved in either planning or speaking at black history events in Canada, the USA and England.

It is the time of the year when we look back at the intense struggles and challenges faced by our people, while also celebrating our achievement and immense involvement in the establishment and development of what we now see as modern civilization.

And so, I enjoy singing the praises of our people who have risen from the physical, emotional and mental torture of slavery and confinement to now the White House, where a black family serves its nation as its first black American presidential family.

I salute those who, because of their hatred and intolerance for human injustice and indignity, have toiled alongside us in our march to freedom and justice. To those of other races who itch because of racial profiling and harassment, which render our North American statistics of imprisoned black males unreasonable in its ratio to other races, we say thank you.

However, we have to position our history well within the overall scheme of things. History is an open text book from which we learn how to proceed in the future. It is what gives us our bearings and reference point that will influence us to either sadly repeat the past, or to use it and the coping strategies developed to carve out an amazing future.

It is with much disheartenment that I respond to black students and young adults on a daily basis, as I ask them about their future plans. The vast majority of our children are lost without direction. Physically free now, but still trapped within their minds, they simple answer “Dunno” for “I don’t know” when asked about what college or university or even what career they will pursue.

The juvenile impatience and fast paced life of 21st century urban living have robbed our children of a planned future. For many, driven by the thirst of instant gratification, they want their money now and have no time to wait to pursue years of secondary and tertiary education. Acute hopelessness has invaded the inner fibre of our black youth causing them to resort to a mere day by day existence, as they see their friends locked up behind bars or fall to the bullet.

Many of our youth have actually stated that they prefer to “enjoy” life now since there is no certainty that they will live to enter or finish university. And so in pain I exclaim, “Give us our black history, tell us the stories of the past, but please inspire and empower our youth to rise up and emancipate themselves from mental slavery, as the late Bob Marley said, or else, all we may be left with is black history with black future in serious jeopardy.”

February 2, 2012

caribbeannewsnow

...are there any ‘sexy’ or especially thought-provoking campaigns that should be more closely watched in the upcoming general election?

Sexy races to watch pt. 1

Consider this


By Philip C. Galanis

The three major political parties have named their entire rosters of 38 candidates for the upcoming general election, which, from all present indications, seems destined for the middle of April to early May.   That is, of course, unless the prime minister decides to irreverently ignore the Lenten season which runs from February 22 to April 8, 2012, something he did in 1997 when general elections were held on March 14.  On that occasion, the FNM won 34 seats to the PLP’s six, establishing the precedent to disregard the Lenten season for political expediency, with no disadvantage to the FNM.

This week we would like to Consider This…given the current compilation of candidates, are there any ‘sexy’ or especially thought-provoking campaigns that should be more closely watched in the upcoming skirmish?  We can think of several and suggest that those worth watching closely are Bamboo Town, Montagu, Fort Charlotte, Long Island, The Exumas and Ragged Island and both Andros seats.

Bamboo Town

Bamboo Town is perhaps the sexiest of all races and is shaping up to be perhaps the most interesting race to watch.  Absolutely none of the candidates now drafted will actually represent the party to which they initially belonged.  They are all transplants.  Branville McCartney, the leader of the newly-formed Democratic National Alliance (DNA) not long ago was a FNM minister.  The Progressive Liberal Party’s (PLP) standard bearer, Renward Wells, until recently, was the leader of the National Development Party (NDP) before joining and being nominated by the PLP.  Before recently joining the FNM, its candidate, Cassius Stuart, was a founding member and the leader of the Bahamas Democratic Movement which was formed in 1998.  Craig Butler, the independent candidate, was an officer of the PLP until recently being denied a nomination by his former party.  So, each of these candidates began his political career wearing other colors.

The person with the most to lose is Branville McCartney, because, as leader of the DNA, if he loses, by convention of the Westminster parliamentary system which we follow, he should resign as that party’s leader.  That scenario would be even more interesting if some of his fellow candidates win their seats and he does not.  Supposedly, the successful candidates, if any, would have to elect a new leader from those who are successful.  In this particular battle, McCartney must have calculated that his former FNM votes could quite likely be cannibalized by the FNM.

There are several important considerations here.  First, in the 2007 election, the PLP did not contest Bamboo Town.  In that election, as presently constituted, the FNM polled 1,261 votes as opposed to independent candidate Tennyson Wells’ 999 votes.  It is reasonable to assume that most of those were cast by PLP supporters who did not have a ‘horse’ in the race.  Secondly, in its present incarnation, Bamboo Town has six polling divisions that were previously in the Kennedy constituency.  In 2007, in those polling divisions, the PLP received 835 votes against the FNM’s 730.  Hence, again as presently constituted, the combined PLP/independent votes would have totaled 1,834 compared to the FNM’s 1,991.

The real test here will be how many of Bran’s FNM voters last time will support him this time around, and will Cassius be able to attract sufficient support to win or will he split the FNM vote which will then work to Renward’s advantage?  And, finally, how well will Craig Butler fare?  Bamboo Town will be the ‘mother of all races’ to watch in 2012.

Montagu

Montagu is also garnering intense interest.  This seat has always been represented by the FNM standard bearer.  The current candidates are Ben Albury (DNA), Richard Lightbourne (FNM), and Frank Smith (PLP).  The most amazing development in this constituency is that, while it is called Montagu, there have been significant changes.  Montagu is now comprised of 12 polling divisions from St. Thomas More, where last time the FNM and PLP polled 1,359 and 1,508 votes, respectively; five polling divisions from Montagu, where the FNM and PLP polled 1,086 and 330 votes, respectively; and one polling division from Marathon where the FNM and PLP polled 81 and 145 votes, respectively.  Based on the total votes cast in 2007, the FNM and PLP polled 2,526 and 1,983 votes, respectively, and assuming that all things remain equal, the FNM would appear to have a decided advantage by 543 votes.

However, Frank Smith has great personal appeal with an effective ground campaign and superlative ‘street smarts’, while Richard Lightbourne is generally perceived to be a lackluster candidate.  The spoiler factor here will be important because Ben Albury is also a very attractive candidate and will likely cannibalize FNM votes.  Despite the apparent FNM advantage here, this contest will have more to do with personal appeal and voter connectivity than brand loyalty.  This will be a fascinating race to follow.

Fort Charlotte

Fort Charlotte will be another very interesting race.  The veteran Zhivargo Laing (FNM), and newcomers Dr. Andre Rollins (PLP) and Mark Humes, chairman of the DNA, will contest that seat, which is presently represented by Alfred Sears (PLP).  This constituency is also now a composite of most of the polling divisions of Fort Charlotte (nine polling divisions or parts thereof), two polling divisions from Killarney and a part of Killarney polling division number two.  Based on the 2007 election results, as presently constituted, last time the FNM and PLP polled 1,637 and 1,700 votes, respectively.  These figures do not include the parts of the polling divisions that have been changed.

While this race should be won by the PLP it is too close to call particularly given the campaign experience of the FNM’s veteran candidate, albeit he was rejected in Fort Charlotte in 2002, versus the rookie factor of the PLP and DNA candidates.  Furthermore, it can be reasonably assumed that regardless of the reason for Zhivargo’s move from Marco City in Freeport to Fort Charlotte, Ingraham has made a calculated wager that he would like to ensure a victory for his “erstwhile son” – a victory that was questionable in Marco City.

Conclusion

The prime minister realizes that if he is to form the next government, he has to keep Bamboo Town and Montagu in the FNM win column and would like to increase his number by adding Fort Charlotte, particularly because he believes that he will lose ground in Grand Bahama given his government’s dismal performance there and that island’s anemic economic profile during the last five years.

Next week, we will review the prospects for the ‘sexy’ and significant races on Andros, on which the prime minister has publically declared he has set his sights, Long Island, and The Exumas and Ragged Island.

Jan 30, 2012

thenassauguardian

Sexy races to watch pt.2

Caribbean Blog International

Branville McCartney - Democratic National Alliance (DNA) leader's gross error in judgement in relations to his party’s MICAL candidate, Delano Munroe ...who is facing a criminal charge... ...stealing by reason of employment...

The DNA leader’s mistake

thenassauguardian editorial

Branville McCartney, leader of the Democratic National Alliance (DNA), is new to politics.  He is just finishing his first term as a member of Parliament.  Yet, he leads a party which hopes to have a permanent presence in The Bahamas.

In a story in The Nassau Guardian on Wednesday the DNA leader admitted that he knew that his party’s MICAL candidate, Delano Munroe, was facing a criminal charge when Munroe was made a candidate by the party.  Munroe has been charged with stealing by reason of employment.

All individuals are innocent until proven guilty in a court of law in our country.  Munroe should be allowed to defend his name in court and should not be in frontline politics while this matter is pending.  McCartney should know this.  He is an attorney, a MP and a party leader.

“We are looking into it and we will make a statement once we have looked into it further,” said McCartney on Wednesday.

He said the party will determine the future of Munroe’s candidacy pending the investigation and the eventual outcome of the court case.

Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham and Opposition Leader Perry Christie have been in the House of Assembly since 1977.  They have been MPs for parts of five different decades.  A component of McCartney’s appeal to some voters is that he is a ‘fresh face’.

The major criticism of McCartney, however, is that he does not have the experience to be prime minister.  Consequently, those who are considering voting for his fledgling party are evaluating all of his decisions to determine if this criticism is true or not.  Selecting and keeping Munroe as a candidate does not engender trust among these potential supporters of the DNA.

Running candidates with complicated lives can cost votes.  In the 2007 general election the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) ran Shane Gibson after embarrassing pictures of Gibson and Anna Nicole Smith in an embrace were published in The Tribune.  Gibson won his Golden Gates seat, but the PLP lost the election.

The Free National Movement (FNM) has continued to attack Gibson since 2007 on his record as the minister of housing in the last PLP administration, questioning his administration of the affairs of the ministry.  Yet, the PLP has nominated Gibson again to be a candidate in the 2012 general election.

Reasonable observers would agree that the Anna Nicole photos caused the PLP great embarrassment and votes.  The PLP, for some reason, sticks with Gibson.  We are not saying that he did anything wrong.  In politics some people simply become liabilities because of negative voter perception of the issues they face.  Leaders who cannot ensure that these individuals serve from behind-the-scenes, or not at all, demonstrate that they are either not strong enough to make this happen or that they are out of touch with the public mood.

McCartney has made a mistake.  He should inform Munroe that he should take a break from the frontline until the matter is resolved.  If cleared of the charge, Munroe would be able to reenter frontline politics and state his case as a potential political candidate.

Jan 27, 2012

thenassauguardian editorial

Caribbean Blog International