By Dennis Dames:
The following in my preliminary autopsy report on the May 07, 2012 general election - which resulted in the crushing defeat of the Free National Movement (FNM) party and its now deflated leader, Hubert Alexander Ingraham.
Firstly, it was a people’s victory - more than a Progressive Liberal Party’s. The last five years was financially exhaustive for many of us; and scores of Bahamians – including me, have expressed how it was the worst time economically that we have faced in our lifetime.
Home ownership was lost left, right and centre; unemployment increased dramatically, and we the people became naturally apprehensive about our and our children’s future while we watched a very grand road improvement and infrastructure project gobbled-up hundreds of millions of dollars in borrowed funds.
Then, there were fellow FNM supporters who had abandoned ship in mass numbers during the last term of the Free National Movement government. It was indeed a creepy experience to be witness to card carrying FNMs from the inception of the party move on to other political organizations.
The FNM defeat was in the making the day after their 2007 general election victory. Most FNM MPs had abandoned their constituents from 2007 to 2012; and when they did confront the voters to vote for them this time, they discovered that they were out of favor with the people. Mr. Brensil Rolle, Tommy Turnquest, Carl Bethel, and a lot others now understand that the Bahamian electorate would not tolerate rotten representation.
Through it all, how was it that the FNM incumbent candidate for Killarney, was able to hold on to his seat in believable fashion, despite the massive Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) wave? The answer to this holds the keys to the future successes of the Free National Movement (FNM) Party – in my humble opinion.
A political blog about Bahamian politics in The Bahamas, Bahamian Politicans - and the entire Bahamas political lot. Bahamian Blogger Dennis Dames keeps you updated on the political news and views throughout the islands of The Bahamas without fear or favor. Bahamian Politicians and the Bahamian Political Arena: Updates one Post at a time on Bahamas Politics and Bahamas Politicans; and their local, regional and international policies and perspectives.
Thursday, May 10, 2012
The 2012 general election is behind us now... and nation building requires all of us to join Team Bahamas ...and put our full support behind Prime Minister Perry Christie... as we move this country forward, onward, upward, together
Beyond Election 2012
CFAL Economic View
On Monday past The Bahamas held its eight election; an event which is best described as perhaps the most pivotal election since independence and the manner in which it was conducted took the process to a new level. It also resulted in the changing of the guard and will no doubt usher in a new cadre of political leaders.
We wish to congratulate Perry G. Christie, the new prime minister of the Commonwealth of The Bahamas, on his election victory.
The election was a hard, tough and rugged battle for all the contestants. Much resources, man-hours and capital were expended in the process. It is behind us now and nation building requires all of us to join Team Bahamas and put our full support behind Christie as we move this country forward, onward, upward, together.
What are we to expect in the next five years? To begin with, there are many challenges as well as opportunities to face over the coming years and our success as a country would demand full engagement and co-operation by all. It’s up to the new administration to chart a course for “Bahamas Incorporated” in order to ensure a safe journey on our destination to a prosperous Bahamas. It must be an all-inclusive plan for the entire Bahamas involving all political groupings; an undertaking which we believe Christie can fully support.
It is our hope that the new administration will seek out and use the talents and intellect of all Bahamians from anywhere but especially, bright, smart young Bahamians, no matter what their political affiliations may be. In the past, immediately following an election, it was not unusual to see the usual list of suspects being appointed either as consultants or heads of various government boards irrespective of their credentials or even a track record for successfully managing anything. The almost deliberate oversight of young people in the past was not helpful to nation building and we are hopeful that going forward, our young people will be given opportunities to serve in a meaningful way in government agencies and institutions and on government boards and committees.
Perhaps the single biggest issue facing the new government is that of job creation. This matter is particularly challenging because it is highly dependent on external factors over which we have no control. In this regard, it would be useful for us to begin to focus quickly on a “plan” for Bahamas 2020. This would enable us to determine our strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) and develop a plan which maximizes our strengths, minimizes our weaknesses, while taking advantage of the opportunities and appreciating the threats to our economy. In the short-term, we need to continue to grow and diversify within our two major financial pillars while at the same time, developing new pillars to minimize any future external shocks to “Bahamas Incorporated”. We need to continue to encourage foreign direct investment (FDI) as well as to provide appropriate opportunities (incentives) for increased local direct investment (LDI).
We also need to explore new industries and build upon some of the less successful industries to date, which for whatever reason, were left unattended or not pursued. We need to focus on industries such as agriculture, fisheries, aquaculture, light manufacturing and high-end service centers, while continuing the “oil drilling” dialogue. We must be mindful that it is a mistake to believe that oil drilling will be the panacea for wiping out the national debt and a solution to all our problems. The reality is that it would take years to see any sustainable economic impact on The Bahamas. Based upon the information available to us, it would appear that the current structure needs to be re-negotiated more favorably in the economic interest of The Bahamas. We have no doubt that Christie and his government would act in the best interest of the Commonwealth of The Bahamas and do the right thing in this regard.
We take this opportunity to congratulate the new Cabinet and we look forward to seeing any new policies and programs unveiled by the new administration.
• CFAL is a sister company of The Nassau Guardian under the AF Holdings Ltd. umbrella. CFAL provides investment management, research, brokerage and pension services. For comments, please contact CFAL at: column@cfal.com
May 09, 2012
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
There is no wound so painful as man's ingratitude... ...We fully understand, but deeply regret Mr. Hubert Ingraham's decision to say to his people -- thank you, but no thank you, I have served you well, I can take no more
Bahamas Has Lost A Great Leader
tribune242 editorial
BAHAMIANS went to the polls yesterday and showed the depth of their ingratitude to a man who had dedicated 35 selfless years to their service. Hubert Ingraham was a man who had taken over a country that had become a pariah among nations. A country regarded by the world as a "nation for sale", where drug lords flourished. The public treasury was bankrupt, Bahamians were out of work, the island had fallen to third world status with crumbling infrastructure -- the situation seemed hopeless in 1992.
But that year, as leader of the FNM, Mr Ingraham defeated the late Sir Lynden Pindling's PLP, and started the task of rebuilding a country that had little going for it. His first task was to reinvigorate the tourist industry - all government owned hotels were failing. His first success at restructuring was to attract the Kerzner interests back to the Bahamas - they had earlier taken a look and walked away. This conquest culminated in the Atlantis resort on Paradise Island. Further investment quickly followed. Gradually the "nation for sale" tag appeared less often in newspaper articles about the Bahamas, until it eventually disappeared.
Mr Ingraham served two terms as prime minister (1992-2002) before being defeated by his former law partner, PLP Opposition Leader Perry Christie, who served for one term before being beaten by the FNM. Mr Ingraham was returned to power.
Shocked by the defeat, the PLP commissioned a firm of experts to investigate and try to discover what went wrong. The perception of corruption and weak leadership in the PLP were their conclusions.
Unfortunately for Mr Ingraham, but most fortunately for the Bahamas, it was Mr Ingraham who guided the ship of state when the world economy crashed, sweeping every country before it, including the Bahamas.
It was Mr Ingraham's tenacity, level head, farsight, and hard work that kept the Bahamas' economy from imploding as did the economies of so many other, larger, and more prosperous countries. Certainly times were tough for Bahamians -- loss of jobs and of homes -- but he did his best to cushion the blow. Compared to other countries, which were exploding in civil unrest all around us -- Greece being the prime example -- the Bahamas was weathering the storm. We do not think that a PLP government could have done the job.
One only has to look around the country, now on the verge of an economic comeback, to see the accomplishments of the Ingraham government, which had tremendous plans for the future if given another five years by the Bahamian people. But that was not to be.
There is no wound so painful as man's ingratitude. We fully understand, but deeply regret Mr Ingraham's decision to say to his people -- thank you, but no thank you, I have served you well, I can take no more.
Although his constituents re-elected him yesterday, he not only resigned as leader of his party, but he also decided not to take his seat in the House of Assembly.
Many think this was a grave mistake, but having been through this over 50 years ago with another outstanding man - who sacrificed his life and almost lost his business only to be rejected by the very people for whom he had made the sacrifices - we understand Mr Ingraham's decision.
In 1956, Sir Etienne Dupuch, publisher of this newspaper, standing on the floor of the House, was threatened with arrest for moving a Resolution to end racial discrimination in public places in the Bahamas. By the end of that week hotels announced that discrimination in their establishments was over. Other public places followed. Shortly afterwards Sir Etienne was defeated in a general election as the representative in the House of Assembly for the Eastern district. He was replaced by a plumber.
However, despite yesterday's loss, if one takes time to study the results it is obvious that constituencies were lost by only a few votes.
Yesterday we drove around various constituencies, including Grants Town. The stories we heard of vote buying in various places were mind-boggling. Some were told by the very persons who had been solicited, one of whom had succumbed.
We heard the stories of men who were offered bribes of $5,000, $10,000, as high as $15,000, to take off their red shirts, reject their FNM candidate and convince other FNM supporters to do the same.
We heard of a group of young men, who were only interested in money, not in the good of their country or the future of their families, who told the FNM candidate that they had planned to vote for him, but, so sorry, they could not turn down the substantial bribe. We heard of instances of yellow shirts being presented with money wrapped inside as an inducement to take off the red and put on the yellow. FNM's stood on the sidelines and watched. Names were called of the persons they claim were handing out the money.
We urge FNM's to stand up and - yes, once more for the sake of their country -- expose this evil. If not we shall all be guilty of silently acquiescing in a corrupt society. Are we to return so soon to being a "nation for sale"?
We at The Tribune thank Mr Ingraham for his many years of service to an ungrateful country, whose people we are certain will soon regret their decision.
We hope he will now enjoy his private life with his wife, children and grandchildren - also his favourite pastime -- fishing in this country's beautiful waters.
May 08, 2012
tribune242 editorial
tribune242 editorial
BAHAMIANS went to the polls yesterday and showed the depth of their ingratitude to a man who had dedicated 35 selfless years to their service. Hubert Ingraham was a man who had taken over a country that had become a pariah among nations. A country regarded by the world as a "nation for sale", where drug lords flourished. The public treasury was bankrupt, Bahamians were out of work, the island had fallen to third world status with crumbling infrastructure -- the situation seemed hopeless in 1992.
But that year, as leader of the FNM, Mr Ingraham defeated the late Sir Lynden Pindling's PLP, and started the task of rebuilding a country that had little going for it. His first task was to reinvigorate the tourist industry - all government owned hotels were failing. His first success at restructuring was to attract the Kerzner interests back to the Bahamas - they had earlier taken a look and walked away. This conquest culminated in the Atlantis resort on Paradise Island. Further investment quickly followed. Gradually the "nation for sale" tag appeared less often in newspaper articles about the Bahamas, until it eventually disappeared.
Mr Ingraham served two terms as prime minister (1992-2002) before being defeated by his former law partner, PLP Opposition Leader Perry Christie, who served for one term before being beaten by the FNM. Mr Ingraham was returned to power.
Shocked by the defeat, the PLP commissioned a firm of experts to investigate and try to discover what went wrong. The perception of corruption and weak leadership in the PLP were their conclusions.
Unfortunately for Mr Ingraham, but most fortunately for the Bahamas, it was Mr Ingraham who guided the ship of state when the world economy crashed, sweeping every country before it, including the Bahamas.
It was Mr Ingraham's tenacity, level head, farsight, and hard work that kept the Bahamas' economy from imploding as did the economies of so many other, larger, and more prosperous countries. Certainly times were tough for Bahamians -- loss of jobs and of homes -- but he did his best to cushion the blow. Compared to other countries, which were exploding in civil unrest all around us -- Greece being the prime example -- the Bahamas was weathering the storm. We do not think that a PLP government could have done the job.
One only has to look around the country, now on the verge of an economic comeback, to see the accomplishments of the Ingraham government, which had tremendous plans for the future if given another five years by the Bahamian people. But that was not to be.
There is no wound so painful as man's ingratitude. We fully understand, but deeply regret Mr Ingraham's decision to say to his people -- thank you, but no thank you, I have served you well, I can take no more.
Although his constituents re-elected him yesterday, he not only resigned as leader of his party, but he also decided not to take his seat in the House of Assembly.
Many think this was a grave mistake, but having been through this over 50 years ago with another outstanding man - who sacrificed his life and almost lost his business only to be rejected by the very people for whom he had made the sacrifices - we understand Mr Ingraham's decision.
In 1956, Sir Etienne Dupuch, publisher of this newspaper, standing on the floor of the House, was threatened with arrest for moving a Resolution to end racial discrimination in public places in the Bahamas. By the end of that week hotels announced that discrimination in their establishments was over. Other public places followed. Shortly afterwards Sir Etienne was defeated in a general election as the representative in the House of Assembly for the Eastern district. He was replaced by a plumber.
However, despite yesterday's loss, if one takes time to study the results it is obvious that constituencies were lost by only a few votes.
Yesterday we drove around various constituencies, including Grants Town. The stories we heard of vote buying in various places were mind-boggling. Some were told by the very persons who had been solicited, one of whom had succumbed.
We heard the stories of men who were offered bribes of $5,000, $10,000, as high as $15,000, to take off their red shirts, reject their FNM candidate and convince other FNM supporters to do the same.
We heard of a group of young men, who were only interested in money, not in the good of their country or the future of their families, who told the FNM candidate that they had planned to vote for him, but, so sorry, they could not turn down the substantial bribe. We heard of instances of yellow shirts being presented with money wrapped inside as an inducement to take off the red and put on the yellow. FNM's stood on the sidelines and watched. Names were called of the persons they claim were handing out the money.
We urge FNM's to stand up and - yes, once more for the sake of their country -- expose this evil. If not we shall all be guilty of silently acquiescing in a corrupt society. Are we to return so soon to being a "nation for sale"?
We at The Tribune thank Mr Ingraham for his many years of service to an ungrateful country, whose people we are certain will soon regret their decision.
We hope he will now enjoy his private life with his wife, children and grandchildren - also his favourite pastime -- fishing in this country's beautiful waters.
May 08, 2012
tribune242 editorial
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
The return of Perry Christie as prime minister of the Commonwealth of The Bahamas
The return of Perry Christie
The Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) has defeated Hubert Ingraham and his Free National Movement (FNM) in a landslide victory, returning Perry Christie to the post of prime minister of the Commonwealth of The Bahamas.
Christie became the first one-term prime minister of an independent Bahamas in 2007 when Hubert Ingraham and the FNM defeated his party. In the 2007 general election campaign Ingraham, his friend, waged an all out attack on Christie, branding him as weak, lazy and incompetent as a leader. Those attacks on the PLP continued during its five-year term in opposition and accelerated during the 2012 election campaign. Christie endured and he has defeated and retired Ingraham.
When Christie lost in 2007, it was largely due to a perceived permissive leadership style. There were many gaffes and scandals during the PLP’s term and many thought Christie could have been firmer in response to the misbehavior of some of his members.
Christie has a chance. He must learn from his errors. To lead is to choose. To lead is to make sure that those under you follow in a responsible and orderly manner. Christie must do this this time.
He must also urgently move to address several major issues facing our country.
The Ingraham administration borrowed an extraordinary amount of money during the last few years of the party’s mandate. The debt position of the country must be assessed and the country must be set on a course of sustainable growth.
The country also has a serious crime problem. The PLP has pledged a robust anti-crime program. We will watch carefully to see if it works. The PLP savaged the FNM on the crime issue. Now it must deliver. If it does not, it will face quite the attack for promising solutions and not delivering.
Another pressing issue for Christie and his new government will be the roadwork project in New Providence. It is significantly over-budget and has harmed and annoyed many Bahamians.
Jose Cartellone Construcciones Civiles must state whether or not it can finish this work in a timely fashion, if not, the new government needs to find another contractor or contractors.
These are just a few of the main issues the new government must face immediately. The PLP will have a major majority when all the counting is done. It must use this historic vote to prove it is serious about governing in the best interest of the Bahamian people. Christie must be the watchdog and ensure that members of his party do not take advantage of the positions of privilege they hold.
Hubert Ingraham should return to the House of Assembly
Ingraham is the second most significant politician in modern Bahamian history after his mentor Sir Lynden Pindling. Ingraham announced last night that he will not be sworn in as the member of Parliament for North Abaco and he will not swear in as leader of the opposition. He also resigned as FNM leader.
Ingraham did the right thing by stepping down as FNM leader. That move demonstrated maturity. Ingraham, though, should swear in and come to the House of Assembly so that he can be given the proper dignified parliamentary send off he deserves before retiring from Parliament.
When Sir Lynden Pindling lost in the epic FNM landslide in 1997, Sir Lynden returned to the House. On his last day MPs spoke on Sir Lynden’s legacy. Ingraham gave a comprehensive address on the good and the bad of the Pindling years. Sir Lynden understood that he was a historic figure; he knew that moment in the House was important for the historic record. He subjected himself to the moment. Ingraham should do the same.
Last night’s loss was nothing to be embarrassed about. Ingraham has won three mandates. He has done much for the development of The Bahamas. We should hear one last time in the House from the man who came from poverty to be prime minister, who won the Abaco seat eight times. This type of goodbye would be fitting for a great leader.
May 08, 2012
Let us Bahamians work together... PLPs, FNMs, DNAs and INDEPENDENTS alike... ...to keep The Bahamas moving forward, upward, onward TOGETHER!
To the residents of the great constituency of Killarney:
I am humbled and grateful for the overwhelming show of support in returning me as your Member of Parliament. Please be assured, that I will continue to represent you and serve with the same diligence and vigor as I have always done.
I congratulate The Commonwealth's new Prime Minister elect, The Rt. Hon. Perry Gladstone Christie, the PLP, and the thousands of supporters across this nation on the victory that you have achieved, I pray that God will guide and lead you in the coming months and years ahead, in meeting the needs of all Bahamians.
To Branville McCartney, the members and supporters of the DNA, you have fought a good fight! I congratulate you for a job well done, as the strength of a democracy depends not only on the power of the people but the fortitude of the opposition.
To the thousands of FNM supporters, take comfort in knowing that our support is still strong! Remember, it is God who changes times and seasons and that He is on the throne. Rather than a source of discouragement, let this loss be a fresh stimulus for our party. In the words of Denis Waitley, let it be our teacher, not our undertaker. A delay, not defeat. A temporary detour, not a dead end.
It is natural to feel disappointment; some may even feel depressed. However, the difference in the outcome lies in how we respond to these situations and cope with them. Let us trust that God has a purpose and a plan for this country and for our lives and give thanks even in the midst of our loss. Remember our livelihood, security and safety are intertwined and we live in 'One Bahamas'. Do not allow the loss to shake our faith, but to strengthen it! In all things give thanks!
I thank every supporter for your hard work and your diligence, and I ask that you stay strong! We will keep you informed of restructuring, plans and goals moving forward.
Let us work together, PLP, FNM, DNA and INDEPENDENTS alike, to keep this country moving forward, upward, onward TOGETHER!
May God bless you all!
Member of Parliament Elect, Killarney
Dr. Hubert A. Minnis
I am humbled and grateful for the overwhelming show of support in returning me as your Member of Parliament. Please be assured, that I will continue to represent you and serve with the same diligence and vigor as I have always done.
I congratulate The Commonwealth's new Prime Minister elect, The Rt. Hon. Perry Gladstone Christie, the PLP, and the thousands of supporters across this nation on the victory that you have achieved, I pray that God will guide and lead you in the coming months and years ahead, in meeting the needs of all Bahamians.
To Branville McCartney, the members and supporters of the DNA, you have fought a good fight! I congratulate you for a job well done, as the strength of a democracy depends not only on the power of the people but the fortitude of the opposition.
To the thousands of FNM supporters, take comfort in knowing that our support is still strong! Remember, it is God who changes times and seasons and that He is on the throne. Rather than a source of discouragement, let this loss be a fresh stimulus for our party. In the words of Denis Waitley, let it be our teacher, not our undertaker. A delay, not defeat. A temporary detour, not a dead end.
It is natural to feel disappointment; some may even feel depressed. However, the difference in the outcome lies in how we respond to these situations and cope with them. Let us trust that God has a purpose and a plan for this country and for our lives and give thanks even in the midst of our loss. Remember our livelihood, security and safety are intertwined and we live in 'One Bahamas'. Do not allow the loss to shake our faith, but to strengthen it! In all things give thanks!
I thank every supporter for your hard work and your diligence, and I ask that you stay strong! We will keep you informed of restructuring, plans and goals moving forward.
Let us work together, PLP, FNM, DNA and INDEPENDENTS alike, to keep this country moving forward, upward, onward TOGETHER!
May God bless you all!
Member of Parliament Elect, Killarney
Dr. Hubert A. Minnis
Saturday, May 5, 2012
Bahamians Decide Their Future On Monday May 07, 2012... ...We will choose between a decisive leader, who will achieve much for the country... or an indecisive leader who will let others take the lead... ...The Bahamian people hold their destiny in their own hands... ...Choose wisely...
Bahamians Decide Their Future On Monday
LAST WEEK, a young Bahamian came to see us. He wanted to talk. It was about the election, but, according to him, it was mainly about his future, which the outcome of the election would determine.
He loved the Bahamas. To him it was home -- a place he never thought he could leave. But Monday's election, and the attitude of many Bahamians, discouraged him.
"If," he said, "after all that Mr Ingraham and his government have done for the Bahamian people, especially during a world recession, they can't understand and appreciate, what is the future for this country? We are just starting to move out of our economic decline. Do you know what would happen if the PLP returned -- everything would stop, and it you think things are bad now, it will be a disaster should they get in on Monday."
"I have been thinking," he said, "if the FNM lose this election, why should I dedicate the rest of my life in trying to help build a country in which a people are so blind and unappreciative."
All Bahamians had to do, he said, was look around them, make comparisons with the PLP's five years of treading water to see the dynamic progress -- despite the hard times -- during the Ingraham years.
His words reminded us of the epithet to Sir Christopher Wren engraved on the walls of St Paul's Cathedral: "Reader, if you want to see my monument, look around you."
After the Great Fire of London in 1666, Sir Christopher was commissioned to rebuild the city. St Paul's was his masterpiece.
The young Bahamian was particularly annoyed at the attitude of the civil service unions. During the world's economic collapse, civil servants were among the first to be fired to reduce each government's costs -- even in the great United States. Not so the Bahamas. Prime Minister Ingraham made certain that no civil servant lost his or her job. Yet, while fellow Bahamians were losing their homes, and their private sector jobs, unionists, secure in their posts, were selfishly bleating for more.
The PLP, smug in its belief of entitlement, was so shocked at losing the 2007 election that it commissioned a research company to find out why.
The first recommendation was that the PLP had to expand its support base. Greenberg Quinlan Rosher found that the PLP won the majority of its votes among the 60 and over age group. It also attracted a socio-economic group with less than a high school education. Over the years the PLP have successfully played on this group's ignorance. But obviously, time is eroding that base.
Also, the report said, the party had to cleanse itself of its scandal-ridden reputation. The party had to take "concrete actions that convey its seriousness about purging corruption from the party and state." The perception among voters, it said, was that the PLP was "more focused on doing things that benefit its own politicians than for people."
Another crucial point was Mr Perry Christie's leadership qualities. There is no disputing that Mr Christie is personally popular, but, said the report, "voters equate his leadership style with weakness." This had to change. To succeed Mr Christie had to be seen as a "forceful, decisive leader."
While prime minister, he appeared too weak and forgiving -- a man completely unable to purge his government of those causing the scandal. How much has he changed? On Monday he is offering the Bahamian people much of the same crew that caused him his problems from 2002 to 2007. Among the new faces are at least two, who if reports can be believed, could cause him future credibility problems.
Obviously, he has shown no strength here, and watching him on the campaign trail one gets the distinct impression that it is his deputy -- "Brave" Davis and not Perry Christie - who is the man in charge. This, again, if what we hear is true, could spell problems in the not too distant future. Many Bahamians are uneasy about the possibility of such a leadership switch.
And so "scandal" is a word that the PLP should quietly tip-toe around -- the day is coming when it will turn to bite them.
On Monday, voters have a choice between two men -- one a strong, leader who accomplishes much, the other, a man who has difficulty making decisions.
We recall a radio talk show many years ago when what sounded like the voice of an elderly Bahamian called the station to relate his experience. The discussion was about Mr Ingraham being a dictator and doing everything himself rather than leaving it up to his ministers. The caller came to the Prime Minister's defence. He said that Mr Ingraham was forced to move in when others failed to do their job. He then told his personal story.
He said he had what to him was a major problem. He took it to his MP, but got no satisfaction. He then went to the heads of several departments that were causing him grief, still nothing was settled. In desperation, he knocked on the door of the prime minister. He found it easier to open the PM's door than that of his own representative.
When he left, he said, he had all his answers. A few telephone calls were made and his problems were solved.
That is the kind of Prime Minister that Bahamians need - and, said my young friend who was concerned about his future under a PLP-led government, all Bahamians have to do is discard their PLP blinkers and see all the accomplishments made on their behalf in the past five years under an FNM government.
It is now up to the Bahamian people.
On Monday they will choose between a decisive leader, who will achieve much for the country, or an indecisive leader who will let others take the lead.
Bahamians hold their destiny in their own hands. We hope that they choose wisely.
May 04, 2012
Friday, May 4, 2012
2012 general election constituency breakdown... ...possible winners and losers on May 07, 2012
Constituency Breakdown
By ADRIAN GIBSON
ajbahama@hotmail.com
THE 2012 general election is shaping up to be one of the most sulfurously partisan polls in recent years. This election, the Bahamian electorate must choose only the most progressive and visionary of a fluid field of hopefuls seeking their votes, whilst shedding certain current MPs like a septuagenarian sheds hair and teeth.
As the clock ticks away and May 7 is clearly on the horizon, any person who underestimates the impact of the DNA in certain constituencies—particularly those constituencies that were decided by 100 or less votes in 2007 (and 2010, in the case of Elizabeth)—would be making a colossal misjudgment (although I don’t believe they will win any seats).
Frankly, both the PLP and the FNM have done a fairly good job of infusing fresh faces into the 2012 line-up as both parties—especially the PLP—had certain representatives who were, and continue to be, carriers of more baggage than a conclave of bellmen.
Indeed, in this political pageant, we can see the emergence of a new generation of political leaders who I hope are prepared and willing to put national interest above narrow party and political considerations. Frankly, this election—being the last in the age of Ingraham—will be won by the party who not only addresses the issues, but who can also woo non-ideological, independent voters.
With a nomination day count of 133 persons seeking to represent the Bahamian public in a fight for 38 seats, among the strong and seasoned contenders is a slew of peripheral figures, and a series of wannabes and also-ran candidates. This sycophantic election cycle has spawned a noxious political environment where we’ve heard political rhetoric spouted by some of the most proficient spinners since Rumpelstiltskin.
As May 7 draweth nigh, the political showdown is rapidly devolving into a time of incivility as reckless behaviour and the architects of lies, revisionist spin, braggadocio and petulant whining goes into full swing—some of this stuff can only be categorized as the utterances and actions of nincompoops.
Whilst a geyser of special interest money will soon—if not already—flood the streets, I urge Bahamians to focus on substance, candour and credibility and to elect representatives who have a pragmatic plan for their communities as opposed to becoming enraptured in the absurd displays of buffoonery by certain politicians and their goons.
That said, now as a 27-year-old, May 7 will mark my second opportunity to cast my vote and I am—like most young Bahamians—fired up and ready to go to the polls.
Indeed, as the ham/turkey, washers/dryers, catchy songs, booze-filled grill and chills, bright- coloured T-shirts and cold hard cash comes out, I remain hopeful that a more edified electorate will reject political paternalism and demand that the substantive societal/national issues are addressed.
Today, I’ve decided to once again don my monk’s garb and attempt to read the political tea leaves, making electoral projections relative to the political odds of the candidates contesting seats in the upcoming general election. Noticeably, my political crystal ball is foggy relative to certain seats, which I will leave as toss-ups. One can decide for themselves, after reading and tallying up the projections, which party I feel is likely to win the election.
Bain Town and Grants Town
The Bain Town and Grants Town seat is likely to remain in the PLP column, as Dr Bernard Nottage will jettison FNM newcomer John Bostwick—son of Janet and Henry Bostwick—to the political dustbin. When Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham and his team commenced a walkabout in the area last week, I was perplexed to see Dr Nottage’s ill-advised behaviour and the tomfoolery of supporters who were obviously following his lead. Dr Nottage, in my opinion, behaved like a politically frightened incumbent and could’ve been more likened to a hell-and-damnation preacher man who lives on the boondocks—shouting/talking in Tommy Turnquest’s face—as opposed to the cultured, centred OB/GYN that myself, and the general public, has come to know.
In Bain Town and Grant’s Town, John Bostwick’s candidacy is comparable to a kitten being thrown into a pool! Bostwick will be beaten by tradition.
Bamboo Town
Bamboo Town will have a new MP following this general election as FNM-turned-DNA leader Branville McCartney will be forced to eat the sour grapes of defeat.
Prior to him forming the DNA, Mr McCartney was a shoo-in on the FNM ticket, however it is believed that he has committed Ingraham-assisted political suicide and will be treated like an unwanted stepson on May 7th. The political sands have shifted and, frankly, McCartney’s electoral hopes are on a hamster wheel and going nowhere fast!
Bran McCartney is a leading candidate for political oblivion and, whilst he has been a good MP, due to the boundary cut—which incorporated seven polling divisions from the traditionally PLP- voting Kennedy constituency into the reconfigured Bamboo Town—he is on the fast track to becoming a political one hit wonder. These days, the DNA leader is seen as an FNM who has gone rogue and who—beyond the reams of hype and the perception of him as a glib pretty boy with a messianic deportment—appears to be a bit too green (pun intended).
That said, the race for Bamboo Town will do down to the wire, as FNM candidate Cassius Stuart, PLP Renward Wells and Independent candidate Craig Butler are all formidable challengers.
Frankly, Mr Butler’s noteworthy campaign has thrown a “monkey wrench” into the showdown for Bamboo Town. Butler will prove to be a headache for his opponents and would have literally been unstoppable if he was also on a major party’s ticket. He has disrupted the political status quo and stands as good a chance as any of winning the Bamboo Town seat.
There is one certainty in the Bamboo Town race and that is, for the first time ever, Cassius Stuart—after losing $1200 in deposit money previously—will at least have his deposit returned to him.
Bamboo Town is a toss-up!
Carmichael
FNM candidate for Carmichael, Darren Cash, will be beaten like a piñata in that constituency.
Cash is a political featherweight who seems to be an intelligent gentleman who unfortunately is unable to connect with ordinary folks.
Quite honestly, he comes off as a monotonous snore who appears to have neither razzle nor dazzle.
Moreover, I’ve heard allegations by some residents of Carmichael that they will vote against Cash because they purportedly didn’t feel that he was sympathetic and compassionate towards them as homeowners—in his capacity as a banker—when they faced mortgage woes.
Dr Danny Johnson (PLP) will capture the seat.
Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador
The Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador contest is shaping up to be an interesting electoral battle. Admittedly, since his loss to James Miller, Philip “Brave” Davis has paid his dues with the PLP and has seemingly garnered a reputation as the emperor of Cat Island rather than previous references as an absentee MP.
That said, Mr Davis has been beaten before and is now facing a serious challenger in Michael Pintard (FNM). Mr Pintard is an orator and has the FNM’s machinery backing him. Previously, Pintard ran in 1997 against PLP leader Perry Christie and was sent packing.
Pintard will make the race for the Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador seat competitive as he is spending quite a bit of time on the ground contrasted to Mr Davis—also PLP Deputy leader—who has to campaign nationally.
This is likely to be a race to the bitter end, with Mr Davis sitting in a most advantageous
position and likely to put a spanking on Pintard.
Central and South Abaco
PLP candidate Gary Sawyer will have to once again reach for a crying towel in the Central and South Abaco constituency. Edison Key will politically body slam Sawyer in that race.
That said, DNA candidate Roscoe Thompson is expected to be a viable threat to the FNM’s retention of this seat. However, he’s likely to join Sawyer in the losers’ column. This contest will probably render a strong showing by the DNA.
Central and South Eleuthera
The Central and South Eleuthera seat is a battleground seat. The appending of Central Eleuthera to the traditionally PLP South Eleuthera stronghold, among other factors, puts the political momentum in Howard Johnson’s (FNM) favour.
Johnson is a homegrown chap and his mother’s (Emily Petty’s) switch from hardcore PLP stalwart councilor to support her son could have a positive impact upon Johnson’s electoral chances. Frankly, if Governor’s Harbour—Johnson’s homestead—overwhelmingly votes in support of him, that immediately hampers PLP candidate Damian Gomez’s chances. Closer examination of that race shows that current MP Oswald Ingraham—who ran four times, losing twice in 1992 and 1997 to then FNM MP Anthony Miller—would have to, in large part, become a surrogate candidate and extend goodwill to Gomez for him to be victorious. By all accounts, Mr Ingraham wanted to run again but was unceremoniously dumped in favour of Gomez.
If Howard Johnson wins Governors Harbour, Palmetto Point, Rock Sound and breaks even in other settlements, he should win the seat. If Johnson polls well in the traditionally PLP-leaning deep south—Wemyss Bight, Deep Creek, Green Castle, etc—then he’s likely to become the MP.
As it stands, this will be close race and it’s highly likely that Damian Gomez will suffer a politically sobering loss. The political thrust is with Johnson, so he’s likely to politically beat the snot out of Damian Gomez!
Central Grand Bahama
The Central Grand Bahama seat will be won by Neko Grant (FNM). Mr Grant is running in traditionally FNM areas and will torpedo his opponents electoral hopes—Julian Russell (PLP) and Howard Grant Jr (DNA)—winning by a comfortable margin of 700 or more votes. Frankly, Julian Russell brings little appeal to the PLP’s Grand Bahama ticket and should hit the panic button and politically jump overboard now.
Relative to Howard Grant Jr—son of outgoing FNM MP Vernae Grant—my guess is that he’s running on principle, seemingly feeling that his mother was treated unfairly when her seat was eliminated and she wasn’t re-nominated. He has promise but will find that, in 2012, his candidacy is a mere pipe dream.
Centreville
PLP leader Perry Christie will eat Ella Lewis’ (FNM) and Celi Moss’ (DNA) lunch in Centreville. Both of Mr Christie’s challengers will fall like sand through a sieve and be set on the treadmill to oblivion.
Frankly, Mr Christie has been returned to his political base—Centreville—where his family lived. No former Prime Minister/Premier has ever been defeated—not Ingraham, Christie, Pindling, Symonette—so the likelihood of that happening this election cycle is nil to none.
East Grand Bahama
In East Grand Bahama, outgoing FNM MP Kenneth Russell is supporting his sister-in-law, DNA candidate Ferline Bridgewater-Thomas. It will be interesting to see if his base and strongest supporters shift with him. I doubt it though.
FNM candidate Peter Turnquest will rout all challengers for the East Grand Bahama seat.
Elizabeth
The clash for the reconfigured Elizabeth constituency will be intense and will undoubtedly leave at least one candidate in diapers after the votes are counted.
The inclusion of the more FNM-inclined Port New Providence and Treasure Cove gated communities, and the splitting of the PLP-leaning Elizabeth Estates area to put one half into Yamacraw and another half into Elizabeth, bodes well for FNM candidate and cardiovascular surgeon Dr Duane Sands. The new Elizabeth is truly reflective of wider Bahamian society, featuring a mixture of persons from lower socio-economic means to high strata.
The race for Elizabeth, whilst likely to be hotly contested, features three of the best candidates in tax attorney Ryan Pinder (PLP), banker Charlene Paul (DNA) and Dr Sands. A recently published survey, conducted by a company that I’m affiliated with (Silver Lining Enterprises), shows that the DNA will also poll well in this constituency.
As it stands, it appears that Dr Sands will give Mr Pinder—who is one of only a handful of MPs whose exciting Parliamentary debates and debating style is always riveting—a black needle.
According to some observers, the race for Elizabeth will cost a mountain of dollars.
Englerston
FNM candidate Caron Shepherd would be better of counting and watching sheep rather than vying for the Englerston seat. In a matchup with Glenys Hanna-Martin (PLP), Ms Shepherd is running in quick sand and sinking fast. She is a major also-ran challenger among a slew of other minor opponents contesting for the Englerston seat.
Englerston—which is now amalgamated with parts of the former St. Cecilia constituency—has never voted FNM and will, I believe, give Mrs Hanna-Martin one of the largest margins of victory in the general election.
Seemingly, the inner-city PLP-leaning seats have been lumped into one massive voting block, with Englerston and St. Cecilia now being one seat and extending as far as Yellow Elder on its western boundaries and nearly as far east as Sea Breeze.
Relative to this seat, contestants such as Paul Rolle (Independent), Alex Morley (Independent), S Ali McIntosh (BCP) and Nicholas Jacques (DNA) will all lose their deposits. Thanks to them the Public Treasury is set to collect $1,600.
Exumas and Ragged Island
Anthony Moss (PLP) may lack the political horsepower to recapture the Exumas and Ragged Island seat as many residents express displeasure with his lackluster representation.
Phenton Neymour (FNM) could edge out the PLP incumbent as Mr Moss is said to be unpopular in the Exuma Cays and has rendered a performance that is purportedly the reason for voter discontent. Frankly, there are only two serious contenders in this race and, key to the fight for this seat, is who wins the cays and George Town. I’m told that Moss is being supported by many in the Baptist church—where he’s very active—and that even Baptist Pastor Dr William Thompson is on the campaign trail for him.
Fort Charlotte
The Fort Charlotte constituency—aka Killarney B— should be a political duel. The fact that the boundaries extend further into what used to be Dr Hubert Minnis’ Killarney seat—all the way to the Cable Beach roundabout—makes the contest even more electrifying.
The face-off in this highly competitive race is between former NDP leader Dr Andre Rollins (PLP) and Zhivargo Laing (FNM), although DNA candidate Mark Humes is expected to get a handful of votes himself.
As it stands, both Dr Rollins and Mr Laing are seen as political journeymen, Mr Laing being a political acolyte of PM Ingraham. I live in the Fort Charlotte constituency and, frankly, some residents have stated to me that they question whether, in the case of Dr Rollins, he has a wide-eyed infatuation with power and would wobble on any position to attain it. Relative to Mr Laing, it has been noted that in his past, he has alienated voters with what many perceived to have been his impatient demeanour, a patronizing and condescending approach when speaking to people and an intolerance to divergent views.
Mr Laing used to be the MP in this constituency, which he lost in 2002, and subsequently relocated to Grand Bahama where he has most recently represented the Marco City seat.
How does Mr Laing’s move play out in the minds of his former constituents, many of whom are asking if he returned to New Providence because he sensed that he was in a deficit position politically?
Two days ago, I read a booklet delivered to my house (and that of other residents) explaining Mr. Laing’s move to Grand Bahama due to pressing family and business-related reasons and I accept that. Undoubtedly, his attempt to explain his plan and his movements over the last 12 years will be noted by most residents. What particularly stood out to me was his character pledge to be “honest, humble, hardworking, accessible, responsive, in touch and productive.” Whatever happens, I intend to hold him accountable and true to his words.
Both gentlemen vying for my vote, and that of thousands of other constituents, are articulate, noteworthy and youthful men. May the best man win!
Fox Hill
Shonell Ferguson’s (FNM) candidacy in Fox Hill reminds me of a wilting candle and she will be rendered a seat less wonder. By all accounts, current MP Fred Mitchell (PLP) has been a visible, hardworking MP, thereby leaving his opponent with a long, tough journey to the polls with her status as a “Fox Hill gal” to have no bearing on the contest.
Garden Hills
Whilst incumbent Brensil Rolle (FNM) has the advantage, the Garden Hills seat could still go either way. Garden Hills has come to be known as one of the swing seats, vacillating between FNM and PLP representatives in recent elections. That said, whilst Dr Kendal Major (PLP) is said to be a hardnosed campaigner, Mr Rolle is quite popular on the ground and, considering the population shifts in the constituency due to the construction and sale of houses in newly constructed housing subdivisions, he may have the advantage in the electoral showdown.
Golden Gates
FNM challenger Winsome Miller is a no-hoper who will “win none” in Golden Gates. PLP incumbent Shane Gibson, by all accounts, has been a good MP and is likely to retain his seat.
Mrs Miller is on the FNM’s B-Team, has failed to impress and is, in my opinion, one of the FNM’s weakest links in the South West.
Golen Isles
In Golden Isles, I once thought that Charles Maynard (FNM) would be like Humpty Dumpty and have a great political fall. However, with a favourable boundary cut and a reputation as a political ground hog, I’m going to forecast him to retain his seat.
In the Golden Isles seat, it is unfortunate that Michael Halkitis—seemingly an all-around good guy and a rising powerhouse—will lose his bid to be re-elected to a seat that he held from 2002 to 2007.
Killarney
In the electoral race for Killarney, Jerome Gomez (PLP) and Prodesta Moore (DNA) will fall like sand through an hour glass in an electoral head-to-head with Dr Hubert Minnis. If any of those contenders beat Dr Minnis, I would stop writing this column for a month. The doctor is a rising powerhouse within the FNM and most likely to be its next leader. No doubt, one expects to hear of fits of hysteria, uncontrollable crying and recurring nightmares from his snubbed challengers who have already greased their own political skids by being brazen enough to accept a nod to challenge one of the nation's best MPs.
Long Island
Loretta Butler-Turner (FNM) needs to permanently stay in Long Island for the next week or so.
The people of Long Island—my home town—are complaining that she comes there for brief periods, pops in-and-out and returns to Nassau whilst her PLP challenger Alex Storr has taken up residence and the DNA candidate, Mario Cartwright, is already a longtime businessman and permanently lives there.
If Mrs Butler-Turner is fooled by the notion that Long Islanders will merely vote for her because she’s an FNM, she could find herself shell-shocked as they would vote in protest just to send her a message.
Of late, I’ve discovered that former FNM Attorney General Tennyson Wells is actively campaigning for Mr Storr and that his sister, former Director of Education Iris Pinder, is Mr. Storr’s campaign manager.
Whilst I still expect Mrs Butler-Turner to win, it will be unlike the 2007 race in Montagu, where she won by a margin of 68 per cent. I suggest that PM Ingraham travels to the island and calls a mass rally. Long Islanders want to feel as if their MP will be with them all the time, not merely for brief periods during election season. And that’s a memo!
Mangrove Cay and South Andros
Incumbent MP Picewell Forbes (PLP) and FNM challenger Ronald Bostfield are two dreadful major party candidates vying for the Mangrove Cay and South Andros seat. Independent challenger and former MP Whitney Bastian will politically wipe the floor with both of his major opponents.
The residents of this constituency have indicated to me that they want to do like the Arabs and politically throw their shoes—i.e. votes—against the incumbent. Mr Forbes, whose “Speak Up” talk show I grew up listening to on Long Island, will suffer a humiliating loss to Independent Whitney Bastian and will likely be going the way of the Dodo—that is, political extinction.
Marathon
The race for the Marathon seat is a run-off that is too close to call. Although it is currently represented by an outgoing FNM MP, PLP challenger Jerome Fitzgerald has purportedly made a lot of headway in that constituency over the last two years.
That said, FNM challenger Heather Hunt appears to be a bright young attorney who has as good a chance as any of capturing this seat. Moreover, the boundary cut—which extends Marathon into the FNM-leaning Blair community—should bode well for Mrs Hunt. The Marathon seat is a fifty-fifty chance of breaking either way!
Marco City
The odds were stacked against the outgoing MP for Marco City, however, the FNM’s nomination of well-respected educator and basketball coach Norris Bain will likely put this seat into the FNM’s win column. Bain is further strengthened by the addition of two FNM-leaning polling divisions from Lucaya and one from High Rock.
MICAL
FNM challenger Sidney Collie will be politically sucker-punched in MICAL. Current MP V. Alfred Gray is likely to retain the seat in a race—between two home town boys—that’s set to be a carnivorous affair. Any expectancy of Mr Collie winning his seat is only comparable to waiting for VAT 19 (liquor) to turn 20!
Sidney Collie is a banana peel away from slipping into the political abyss for, as German philosopher Friedrich Nietzche stated, “if you gaze into the abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.”
Montagu
PLP MP Frank Smith will be sent packing in Montagu and, after this election, find himself banished to the political wilderness. Mr Smith’s impoliteness has earned the ire of the Prime Minister and so it appears that the full weight of both the Prime Minister’s office (boundary cuts, etc) and the FNM’s electoral machinery has come down upon him.
The DNA’s candidate Ben Albury is expected to have a strong showing in this race, with independent candidate Graham Weatherford providing some comic relief and heated, provocative rhetoric.
Whilst I expect FNM candidate Richard Lightbourn to win the seat, it will not be by 2007 margins as Mr Lightbourn is not seen as a politically attractive candidate but rather one whose good fortune is to have been nominated to contest a staunchly FNM/UBP seat.
Mount Moriah
Tommy Turnquest is likely to recapture the Mount Moriah seat (aka Killarney C), which is another seat that now extends into Dr Minnis’ former Killarney constituency with hopes of attaining favourable electoral reforms. I must applaud Mr Turnquest for his handling of the embarrassing episode in Bain Town, which left him seeming poised and statesman-like, contrasted to Dr Bernard Nottage who was constantly sounding off like an empty cymbal.
Frankly, what Dr Nottage should have done was to assemble a welcome brigade for the PM and his team and walk with them, taking the opportunity to perhaps gain political mileage by highlighting the concerns and needs of constituents and any failures on their part to address the issues facing Bain Town residents from 2007 to present.
Arnold Forbes (PLP) seems to be a likable, worthy challenger but he will take a shellacking in this election cycle. DNA candidate Wayne Munroe will have little to no serious impact.
Nassau Village
The Nassau Village seat features one of the dreariest match-ups this election cycle. I was also unimpressed by the selection of Basil Moss to be the FNM’s standard bearer in Nassau Village.
However, after watching him on Bahamas at Sunrise earlier this week, I must say that I thought he did well.
PLP candidate for Nassau Village—attorney Dion Smith—is one of those head scratching nominations. At the PLP’s candidates’ launch, Smith rendered a putrid performance and appeared to be nothing short of an unimpressive, phony-sounding political neophyte who, at best, is a mediocre candidate. Mr Smith appears to be a nondescript, deer-in-the-headlight nominee who is perhaps one of the PLP’s worst candidates.
Indeed, when it comes to the PLP and the FNM, the nominees for the Nassau Village seat must be the most bland and uninteresting nominations for the 2012 general election. The pickings are slim and, as it stands, I would have to say that DNA candidate Chris Mortimer is the most appealing of the trio of candidates seeking to represent that constituency. However, Mr. Mortimer—whilst one of the DNA’s strongest candidates—will not win in what has come to be known as a PLP stronghold. I expect Mr Smith to be elected the MP for that area with Mr. Mortimer perhaps having one of the strongest showings of any DNA candidate. Frankly, Mortimer is one to watch for the 2017 general election as I believe that by then, he’s likely to be picked off and among a slate of major party (i.e. FNM/PLP) candidates.
North Abaco
Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham (FNM) has an exploitable mismatch in the North Abaco race, which is being contested by Renardo Curry (PLP) and Sonith Lockhart (DNA). Mr Ingraham is the FNM’s MVP (Most Valuable Politician) and has done wonders for the island of Abaco and its development.
The notion, by PLPs that Mr Curry could beat Mr Ingraham is merely to fool that young man to proceed to the political gallows although he knows that he couldn’t win even in his playground dreams. Child, please! I have a better chance of becoming President of the United States than Mr. Curry has of beating Mr. Ingraham. This will be an historic rebuke!
North Andros and the Berry Islands
The North Andros and the Berry Islands constituency race features three of the best contenders in this political cycle. Desmond Bannister (FNM), Dr Perry Gomez (PLP) and Randy Butler (DNA) are all well-respected and could all serve as MPs in their own right.
However, this election cycle the political door will be slammed in the faces of Gomez and Butler. Frankly, I believe that at his age Dr Gomez should have stayed away from the political front lines and instead enjoyed the twilight of his medical career without any nightmares of being politically manhandled by Desmond Bannister.
North Eleuthera
The North Eleuthera constituency should be an exciting race to watch. The run-off between Theo Neilly (FNM)—an airport manager and local government chief councilor—and Spanish Wells fisherman and fellow local government councilor Clay Sweeting (PLP) is expected to be a hotly contested affair. Mr Neilly should win the seat.
Pineridge
Current MP Kwasi Thompson has been an outstanding representative, whilst PLP challenger Dr. Michael Darville—who has a medical practice in the constituency—has also earned much praise from residents.
Frankly, I still believe that the PLP should have nominated Dr Darville in the Marco City constituency, as he is not overwhelmingly favoured to beat Mr Thompson. That said, Dr. Darville is a formidable candidate and, whilst Mr Thompson holds a slight edge at this time, the quality of the candidates vying for the voters support in this race could cause the pendulum to swing either way. This race will certainly be a nail biter.
Pinewood
The Pinewood seat is a toss-up!
Although, like the Klingons, FNM MP Byron Woodside has mastered the art of invisibility—in terms of his ministerial portfolio—by all accounts he has done a creditable job in his constituency. However, Pinewood has long been a PLP stronghold and Khaalis Rolle could—depending on changes within the voting bloc and the luck of the political draw—capitalize on the extensive love affair this constituency has had with the PLP. The race for Pinewood will no doubt be close and quite competitive.
Sea Breeze
Hope Strachan (PLP) will puncture the ego of a cocky guy in Sea Breeze. Outgoing FNM MP Carl Bethel, who has become a nowhere man of Bahamian politics, will suffer an ego-busting defeat in Sea Breeze.
In 2007, Mrs Strachan lost by 64 votes after campaigning in the constituency for just six weeks!
South Beach
Monique Gomez (FNM) is likely to win the South Beach seat over Cleola Hamilton (PLP) who is becoming increasing unpopular among constituents.
Southern Shores
The Southern Shores contest is the race between three PLPs—two of whom are now members of the FNM and the DNA. Whilst I believe that Kenyatta Gibson (FNM) may hold a slight edge, Kenred Dorsett is a strong opponent and the impact of DNA candidate Dr Madeline Sawyer could also affect the outcome. The seat is too close to call!
St Anne’s
Accountant Hubert Chipman (FNM) will win the St Anne’s seat, with the only question being, “by how much?”
Outgoing MP Brent Symonette won by nearly 64 per cent of the votes (990-plus votes) cast in the St Annes constituency in the last general election, so one waits to see if Mr Chipman, upon dispatching PLP candidate Greg Burrows, will have a similar margin of victory.
Tall Pines
Leslie Miller (PLP) will politically extinguish Karen Butler (FNM) in Tall Pines. Ms Butler is a sacrificial lamb and her chances could only be great in her own imagination. Mr Miller, a self-described pot cake, is a political groundhog and will politically clobber Ms Butler.
West Grand Bahama and Bimini
The West Grand Bahama and Bimini seat is most interesting. Incumbent Obie Wilchcombe (PLP), the presumed frontrunner, is in a hotly contested race against Pakeisha Edgecombe (FNM) in what will be one of the most watched electoral races in 2012. A review of the seat shows that parts of the Eight Mile Rock settlement—Hanna Hill, Pinedale, Martin Town and Russell Town—which are now in the reconfigured constituency are more PLP-leaning areas, whilst FNM-leaning areas such as Queens Cove have been added to Pineridge or appended to Central Grand Bahama. Bimini which has about 1000 votes has been nearly evenly split over the last 30 years. Besides Mr Wilchcombe, former PLP MP Henry Bowen is the only other person—based on polling data—to win Bimini in two consecutive elections.
In the race for West Grand Bahama and Bimini, I would give incumbent Obie Wilchcombe the edge over Edgecombe in favour of his retention of the seat.
Yamacraw
Lastly, Yamacraw will be a battle royale between Melanie Griffin (PLP) and Dion Foulkes (FNM). Over the years, Mrs Griffin has been said to have a stranglehold on the seat and the addition of half of the Elizabeth Estates community to her seat appears to strengthen her. That said, challenger Dion Foulkes, a political groundhog and a veteran, will prove to be no push over. For now, I’ll categorize the race in Yamacraw as a toss-up!
The upcoming general election will be a political circus and a helluva election season which will leave, upon its conclusion, quite a number of sitting MPs and electoral hopefuls shell-shocked and reaching for a crying towel!
By ADRIAN GIBSON
ajbahama@hotmail.com
THE 2012 general election is shaping up to be one of the most sulfurously partisan polls in recent years. This election, the Bahamian electorate must choose only the most progressive and visionary of a fluid field of hopefuls seeking their votes, whilst shedding certain current MPs like a septuagenarian sheds hair and teeth.
As the clock ticks away and May 7 is clearly on the horizon, any person who underestimates the impact of the DNA in certain constituencies—particularly those constituencies that were decided by 100 or less votes in 2007 (and 2010, in the case of Elizabeth)—would be making a colossal misjudgment (although I don’t believe they will win any seats).
Frankly, both the PLP and the FNM have done a fairly good job of infusing fresh faces into the 2012 line-up as both parties—especially the PLP—had certain representatives who were, and continue to be, carriers of more baggage than a conclave of bellmen.
Indeed, in this political pageant, we can see the emergence of a new generation of political leaders who I hope are prepared and willing to put national interest above narrow party and political considerations. Frankly, this election—being the last in the age of Ingraham—will be won by the party who not only addresses the issues, but who can also woo non-ideological, independent voters.
With a nomination day count of 133 persons seeking to represent the Bahamian public in a fight for 38 seats, among the strong and seasoned contenders is a slew of peripheral figures, and a series of wannabes and also-ran candidates. This sycophantic election cycle has spawned a noxious political environment where we’ve heard political rhetoric spouted by some of the most proficient spinners since Rumpelstiltskin.
As May 7 draweth nigh, the political showdown is rapidly devolving into a time of incivility as reckless behaviour and the architects of lies, revisionist spin, braggadocio and petulant whining goes into full swing—some of this stuff can only be categorized as the utterances and actions of nincompoops.
Whilst a geyser of special interest money will soon—if not already—flood the streets, I urge Bahamians to focus on substance, candour and credibility and to elect representatives who have a pragmatic plan for their communities as opposed to becoming enraptured in the absurd displays of buffoonery by certain politicians and their goons.
That said, now as a 27-year-old, May 7 will mark my second opportunity to cast my vote and I am—like most young Bahamians—fired up and ready to go to the polls.
Indeed, as the ham/turkey, washers/dryers, catchy songs, booze-filled grill and chills, bright- coloured T-shirts and cold hard cash comes out, I remain hopeful that a more edified electorate will reject political paternalism and demand that the substantive societal/national issues are addressed.
Today, I’ve decided to once again don my monk’s garb and attempt to read the political tea leaves, making electoral projections relative to the political odds of the candidates contesting seats in the upcoming general election. Noticeably, my political crystal ball is foggy relative to certain seats, which I will leave as toss-ups. One can decide for themselves, after reading and tallying up the projections, which party I feel is likely to win the election.
Bain Town and Grants Town
The Bain Town and Grants Town seat is likely to remain in the PLP column, as Dr Bernard Nottage will jettison FNM newcomer John Bostwick—son of Janet and Henry Bostwick—to the political dustbin. When Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham and his team commenced a walkabout in the area last week, I was perplexed to see Dr Nottage’s ill-advised behaviour and the tomfoolery of supporters who were obviously following his lead. Dr Nottage, in my opinion, behaved like a politically frightened incumbent and could’ve been more likened to a hell-and-damnation preacher man who lives on the boondocks—shouting/talking in Tommy Turnquest’s face—as opposed to the cultured, centred OB/GYN that myself, and the general public, has come to know.
In Bain Town and Grant’s Town, John Bostwick’s candidacy is comparable to a kitten being thrown into a pool! Bostwick will be beaten by tradition.
Bamboo Town
Bamboo Town will have a new MP following this general election as FNM-turned-DNA leader Branville McCartney will be forced to eat the sour grapes of defeat.
Prior to him forming the DNA, Mr McCartney was a shoo-in on the FNM ticket, however it is believed that he has committed Ingraham-assisted political suicide and will be treated like an unwanted stepson on May 7th. The political sands have shifted and, frankly, McCartney’s electoral hopes are on a hamster wheel and going nowhere fast!
Bran McCartney is a leading candidate for political oblivion and, whilst he has been a good MP, due to the boundary cut—which incorporated seven polling divisions from the traditionally PLP- voting Kennedy constituency into the reconfigured Bamboo Town—he is on the fast track to becoming a political one hit wonder. These days, the DNA leader is seen as an FNM who has gone rogue and who—beyond the reams of hype and the perception of him as a glib pretty boy with a messianic deportment—appears to be a bit too green (pun intended).
That said, the race for Bamboo Town will do down to the wire, as FNM candidate Cassius Stuart, PLP Renward Wells and Independent candidate Craig Butler are all formidable challengers.
Frankly, Mr Butler’s noteworthy campaign has thrown a “monkey wrench” into the showdown for Bamboo Town. Butler will prove to be a headache for his opponents and would have literally been unstoppable if he was also on a major party’s ticket. He has disrupted the political status quo and stands as good a chance as any of winning the Bamboo Town seat.
There is one certainty in the Bamboo Town race and that is, for the first time ever, Cassius Stuart—after losing $1200 in deposit money previously—will at least have his deposit returned to him.
Bamboo Town is a toss-up!
Carmichael
FNM candidate for Carmichael, Darren Cash, will be beaten like a piñata in that constituency.
Cash is a political featherweight who seems to be an intelligent gentleman who unfortunately is unable to connect with ordinary folks.
Quite honestly, he comes off as a monotonous snore who appears to have neither razzle nor dazzle.
Moreover, I’ve heard allegations by some residents of Carmichael that they will vote against Cash because they purportedly didn’t feel that he was sympathetic and compassionate towards them as homeowners—in his capacity as a banker—when they faced mortgage woes.
Dr Danny Johnson (PLP) will capture the seat.
Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador
The Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador contest is shaping up to be an interesting electoral battle. Admittedly, since his loss to James Miller, Philip “Brave” Davis has paid his dues with the PLP and has seemingly garnered a reputation as the emperor of Cat Island rather than previous references as an absentee MP.
That said, Mr Davis has been beaten before and is now facing a serious challenger in Michael Pintard (FNM). Mr Pintard is an orator and has the FNM’s machinery backing him. Previously, Pintard ran in 1997 against PLP leader Perry Christie and was sent packing.
Pintard will make the race for the Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador seat competitive as he is spending quite a bit of time on the ground contrasted to Mr Davis—also PLP Deputy leader—who has to campaign nationally.
This is likely to be a race to the bitter end, with Mr Davis sitting in a most advantageous
position and likely to put a spanking on Pintard.
Central and South Abaco
PLP candidate Gary Sawyer will have to once again reach for a crying towel in the Central and South Abaco constituency. Edison Key will politically body slam Sawyer in that race.
That said, DNA candidate Roscoe Thompson is expected to be a viable threat to the FNM’s retention of this seat. However, he’s likely to join Sawyer in the losers’ column. This contest will probably render a strong showing by the DNA.
Central and South Eleuthera
The Central and South Eleuthera seat is a battleground seat. The appending of Central Eleuthera to the traditionally PLP South Eleuthera stronghold, among other factors, puts the political momentum in Howard Johnson’s (FNM) favour.
Johnson is a homegrown chap and his mother’s (Emily Petty’s) switch from hardcore PLP stalwart councilor to support her son could have a positive impact upon Johnson’s electoral chances. Frankly, if Governor’s Harbour—Johnson’s homestead—overwhelmingly votes in support of him, that immediately hampers PLP candidate Damian Gomez’s chances. Closer examination of that race shows that current MP Oswald Ingraham—who ran four times, losing twice in 1992 and 1997 to then FNM MP Anthony Miller—would have to, in large part, become a surrogate candidate and extend goodwill to Gomez for him to be victorious. By all accounts, Mr Ingraham wanted to run again but was unceremoniously dumped in favour of Gomez.
If Howard Johnson wins Governors Harbour, Palmetto Point, Rock Sound and breaks even in other settlements, he should win the seat. If Johnson polls well in the traditionally PLP-leaning deep south—Wemyss Bight, Deep Creek, Green Castle, etc—then he’s likely to become the MP.
As it stands, this will be close race and it’s highly likely that Damian Gomez will suffer a politically sobering loss. The political thrust is with Johnson, so he’s likely to politically beat the snot out of Damian Gomez!
Central Grand Bahama
The Central Grand Bahama seat will be won by Neko Grant (FNM). Mr Grant is running in traditionally FNM areas and will torpedo his opponents electoral hopes—Julian Russell (PLP) and Howard Grant Jr (DNA)—winning by a comfortable margin of 700 or more votes. Frankly, Julian Russell brings little appeal to the PLP’s Grand Bahama ticket and should hit the panic button and politically jump overboard now.
Relative to Howard Grant Jr—son of outgoing FNM MP Vernae Grant—my guess is that he’s running on principle, seemingly feeling that his mother was treated unfairly when her seat was eliminated and she wasn’t re-nominated. He has promise but will find that, in 2012, his candidacy is a mere pipe dream.
Centreville
PLP leader Perry Christie will eat Ella Lewis’ (FNM) and Celi Moss’ (DNA) lunch in Centreville. Both of Mr Christie’s challengers will fall like sand through a sieve and be set on the treadmill to oblivion.
Frankly, Mr Christie has been returned to his political base—Centreville—where his family lived. No former Prime Minister/Premier has ever been defeated—not Ingraham, Christie, Pindling, Symonette—so the likelihood of that happening this election cycle is nil to none.
East Grand Bahama
In East Grand Bahama, outgoing FNM MP Kenneth Russell is supporting his sister-in-law, DNA candidate Ferline Bridgewater-Thomas. It will be interesting to see if his base and strongest supporters shift with him. I doubt it though.
FNM candidate Peter Turnquest will rout all challengers for the East Grand Bahama seat.
Elizabeth
The clash for the reconfigured Elizabeth constituency will be intense and will undoubtedly leave at least one candidate in diapers after the votes are counted.
The inclusion of the more FNM-inclined Port New Providence and Treasure Cove gated communities, and the splitting of the PLP-leaning Elizabeth Estates area to put one half into Yamacraw and another half into Elizabeth, bodes well for FNM candidate and cardiovascular surgeon Dr Duane Sands. The new Elizabeth is truly reflective of wider Bahamian society, featuring a mixture of persons from lower socio-economic means to high strata.
The race for Elizabeth, whilst likely to be hotly contested, features three of the best candidates in tax attorney Ryan Pinder (PLP), banker Charlene Paul (DNA) and Dr Sands. A recently published survey, conducted by a company that I’m affiliated with (Silver Lining Enterprises), shows that the DNA will also poll well in this constituency.
As it stands, it appears that Dr Sands will give Mr Pinder—who is one of only a handful of MPs whose exciting Parliamentary debates and debating style is always riveting—a black needle.
According to some observers, the race for Elizabeth will cost a mountain of dollars.
Englerston
FNM candidate Caron Shepherd would be better of counting and watching sheep rather than vying for the Englerston seat. In a matchup with Glenys Hanna-Martin (PLP), Ms Shepherd is running in quick sand and sinking fast. She is a major also-ran challenger among a slew of other minor opponents contesting for the Englerston seat.
Englerston—which is now amalgamated with parts of the former St. Cecilia constituency—has never voted FNM and will, I believe, give Mrs Hanna-Martin one of the largest margins of victory in the general election.
Seemingly, the inner-city PLP-leaning seats have been lumped into one massive voting block, with Englerston and St. Cecilia now being one seat and extending as far as Yellow Elder on its western boundaries and nearly as far east as Sea Breeze.
Relative to this seat, contestants such as Paul Rolle (Independent), Alex Morley (Independent), S Ali McIntosh (BCP) and Nicholas Jacques (DNA) will all lose their deposits. Thanks to them the Public Treasury is set to collect $1,600.
Exumas and Ragged Island
Anthony Moss (PLP) may lack the political horsepower to recapture the Exumas and Ragged Island seat as many residents express displeasure with his lackluster representation.
Phenton Neymour (FNM) could edge out the PLP incumbent as Mr Moss is said to be unpopular in the Exuma Cays and has rendered a performance that is purportedly the reason for voter discontent. Frankly, there are only two serious contenders in this race and, key to the fight for this seat, is who wins the cays and George Town. I’m told that Moss is being supported by many in the Baptist church—where he’s very active—and that even Baptist Pastor Dr William Thompson is on the campaign trail for him.
Fort Charlotte
The Fort Charlotte constituency—aka Killarney B— should be a political duel. The fact that the boundaries extend further into what used to be Dr Hubert Minnis’ Killarney seat—all the way to the Cable Beach roundabout—makes the contest even more electrifying.
The face-off in this highly competitive race is between former NDP leader Dr Andre Rollins (PLP) and Zhivargo Laing (FNM), although DNA candidate Mark Humes is expected to get a handful of votes himself.
As it stands, both Dr Rollins and Mr Laing are seen as political journeymen, Mr Laing being a political acolyte of PM Ingraham. I live in the Fort Charlotte constituency and, frankly, some residents have stated to me that they question whether, in the case of Dr Rollins, he has a wide-eyed infatuation with power and would wobble on any position to attain it. Relative to Mr Laing, it has been noted that in his past, he has alienated voters with what many perceived to have been his impatient demeanour, a patronizing and condescending approach when speaking to people and an intolerance to divergent views.
Mr Laing used to be the MP in this constituency, which he lost in 2002, and subsequently relocated to Grand Bahama where he has most recently represented the Marco City seat.
How does Mr Laing’s move play out in the minds of his former constituents, many of whom are asking if he returned to New Providence because he sensed that he was in a deficit position politically?
Two days ago, I read a booklet delivered to my house (and that of other residents) explaining Mr. Laing’s move to Grand Bahama due to pressing family and business-related reasons and I accept that. Undoubtedly, his attempt to explain his plan and his movements over the last 12 years will be noted by most residents. What particularly stood out to me was his character pledge to be “honest, humble, hardworking, accessible, responsive, in touch and productive.” Whatever happens, I intend to hold him accountable and true to his words.
Both gentlemen vying for my vote, and that of thousands of other constituents, are articulate, noteworthy and youthful men. May the best man win!
Fox Hill
Shonell Ferguson’s (FNM) candidacy in Fox Hill reminds me of a wilting candle and she will be rendered a seat less wonder. By all accounts, current MP Fred Mitchell (PLP) has been a visible, hardworking MP, thereby leaving his opponent with a long, tough journey to the polls with her status as a “Fox Hill gal” to have no bearing on the contest.
Garden Hills
Whilst incumbent Brensil Rolle (FNM) has the advantage, the Garden Hills seat could still go either way. Garden Hills has come to be known as one of the swing seats, vacillating between FNM and PLP representatives in recent elections. That said, whilst Dr Kendal Major (PLP) is said to be a hardnosed campaigner, Mr Rolle is quite popular on the ground and, considering the population shifts in the constituency due to the construction and sale of houses in newly constructed housing subdivisions, he may have the advantage in the electoral showdown.
Golden Gates
FNM challenger Winsome Miller is a no-hoper who will “win none” in Golden Gates. PLP incumbent Shane Gibson, by all accounts, has been a good MP and is likely to retain his seat.
Mrs Miller is on the FNM’s B-Team, has failed to impress and is, in my opinion, one of the FNM’s weakest links in the South West.
Golen Isles
In Golden Isles, I once thought that Charles Maynard (FNM) would be like Humpty Dumpty and have a great political fall. However, with a favourable boundary cut and a reputation as a political ground hog, I’m going to forecast him to retain his seat.
In the Golden Isles seat, it is unfortunate that Michael Halkitis—seemingly an all-around good guy and a rising powerhouse—will lose his bid to be re-elected to a seat that he held from 2002 to 2007.
Killarney
In the electoral race for Killarney, Jerome Gomez (PLP) and Prodesta Moore (DNA) will fall like sand through an hour glass in an electoral head-to-head with Dr Hubert Minnis. If any of those contenders beat Dr Minnis, I would stop writing this column for a month. The doctor is a rising powerhouse within the FNM and most likely to be its next leader. No doubt, one expects to hear of fits of hysteria, uncontrollable crying and recurring nightmares from his snubbed challengers who have already greased their own political skids by being brazen enough to accept a nod to challenge one of the nation's best MPs.
Long Island
Loretta Butler-Turner (FNM) needs to permanently stay in Long Island for the next week or so.
The people of Long Island—my home town—are complaining that she comes there for brief periods, pops in-and-out and returns to Nassau whilst her PLP challenger Alex Storr has taken up residence and the DNA candidate, Mario Cartwright, is already a longtime businessman and permanently lives there.
If Mrs Butler-Turner is fooled by the notion that Long Islanders will merely vote for her because she’s an FNM, she could find herself shell-shocked as they would vote in protest just to send her a message.
Of late, I’ve discovered that former FNM Attorney General Tennyson Wells is actively campaigning for Mr Storr and that his sister, former Director of Education Iris Pinder, is Mr. Storr’s campaign manager.
Whilst I still expect Mrs Butler-Turner to win, it will be unlike the 2007 race in Montagu, where she won by a margin of 68 per cent. I suggest that PM Ingraham travels to the island and calls a mass rally. Long Islanders want to feel as if their MP will be with them all the time, not merely for brief periods during election season. And that’s a memo!
Mangrove Cay and South Andros
Incumbent MP Picewell Forbes (PLP) and FNM challenger Ronald Bostfield are two dreadful major party candidates vying for the Mangrove Cay and South Andros seat. Independent challenger and former MP Whitney Bastian will politically wipe the floor with both of his major opponents.
The residents of this constituency have indicated to me that they want to do like the Arabs and politically throw their shoes—i.e. votes—against the incumbent. Mr Forbes, whose “Speak Up” talk show I grew up listening to on Long Island, will suffer a humiliating loss to Independent Whitney Bastian and will likely be going the way of the Dodo—that is, political extinction.
Marathon
The race for the Marathon seat is a run-off that is too close to call. Although it is currently represented by an outgoing FNM MP, PLP challenger Jerome Fitzgerald has purportedly made a lot of headway in that constituency over the last two years.
That said, FNM challenger Heather Hunt appears to be a bright young attorney who has as good a chance as any of capturing this seat. Moreover, the boundary cut—which extends Marathon into the FNM-leaning Blair community—should bode well for Mrs Hunt. The Marathon seat is a fifty-fifty chance of breaking either way!
Marco City
The odds were stacked against the outgoing MP for Marco City, however, the FNM’s nomination of well-respected educator and basketball coach Norris Bain will likely put this seat into the FNM’s win column. Bain is further strengthened by the addition of two FNM-leaning polling divisions from Lucaya and one from High Rock.
MICAL
FNM challenger Sidney Collie will be politically sucker-punched in MICAL. Current MP V. Alfred Gray is likely to retain the seat in a race—between two home town boys—that’s set to be a carnivorous affair. Any expectancy of Mr Collie winning his seat is only comparable to waiting for VAT 19 (liquor) to turn 20!
Sidney Collie is a banana peel away from slipping into the political abyss for, as German philosopher Friedrich Nietzche stated, “if you gaze into the abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.”
Montagu
PLP MP Frank Smith will be sent packing in Montagu and, after this election, find himself banished to the political wilderness. Mr Smith’s impoliteness has earned the ire of the Prime Minister and so it appears that the full weight of both the Prime Minister’s office (boundary cuts, etc) and the FNM’s electoral machinery has come down upon him.
The DNA’s candidate Ben Albury is expected to have a strong showing in this race, with independent candidate Graham Weatherford providing some comic relief and heated, provocative rhetoric.
Whilst I expect FNM candidate Richard Lightbourn to win the seat, it will not be by 2007 margins as Mr Lightbourn is not seen as a politically attractive candidate but rather one whose good fortune is to have been nominated to contest a staunchly FNM/UBP seat.
Mount Moriah
Tommy Turnquest is likely to recapture the Mount Moriah seat (aka Killarney C), which is another seat that now extends into Dr Minnis’ former Killarney constituency with hopes of attaining favourable electoral reforms. I must applaud Mr Turnquest for his handling of the embarrassing episode in Bain Town, which left him seeming poised and statesman-like, contrasted to Dr Bernard Nottage who was constantly sounding off like an empty cymbal.
Frankly, what Dr Nottage should have done was to assemble a welcome brigade for the PM and his team and walk with them, taking the opportunity to perhaps gain political mileage by highlighting the concerns and needs of constituents and any failures on their part to address the issues facing Bain Town residents from 2007 to present.
Arnold Forbes (PLP) seems to be a likable, worthy challenger but he will take a shellacking in this election cycle. DNA candidate Wayne Munroe will have little to no serious impact.
Nassau Village
The Nassau Village seat features one of the dreariest match-ups this election cycle. I was also unimpressed by the selection of Basil Moss to be the FNM’s standard bearer in Nassau Village.
However, after watching him on Bahamas at Sunrise earlier this week, I must say that I thought he did well.
PLP candidate for Nassau Village—attorney Dion Smith—is one of those head scratching nominations. At the PLP’s candidates’ launch, Smith rendered a putrid performance and appeared to be nothing short of an unimpressive, phony-sounding political neophyte who, at best, is a mediocre candidate. Mr Smith appears to be a nondescript, deer-in-the-headlight nominee who is perhaps one of the PLP’s worst candidates.
Indeed, when it comes to the PLP and the FNM, the nominees for the Nassau Village seat must be the most bland and uninteresting nominations for the 2012 general election. The pickings are slim and, as it stands, I would have to say that DNA candidate Chris Mortimer is the most appealing of the trio of candidates seeking to represent that constituency. However, Mr. Mortimer—whilst one of the DNA’s strongest candidates—will not win in what has come to be known as a PLP stronghold. I expect Mr Smith to be elected the MP for that area with Mr. Mortimer perhaps having one of the strongest showings of any DNA candidate. Frankly, Mortimer is one to watch for the 2017 general election as I believe that by then, he’s likely to be picked off and among a slate of major party (i.e. FNM/PLP) candidates.
North Abaco
Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham (FNM) has an exploitable mismatch in the North Abaco race, which is being contested by Renardo Curry (PLP) and Sonith Lockhart (DNA). Mr Ingraham is the FNM’s MVP (Most Valuable Politician) and has done wonders for the island of Abaco and its development.
The notion, by PLPs that Mr Curry could beat Mr Ingraham is merely to fool that young man to proceed to the political gallows although he knows that he couldn’t win even in his playground dreams. Child, please! I have a better chance of becoming President of the United States than Mr. Curry has of beating Mr. Ingraham. This will be an historic rebuke!
North Andros and the Berry Islands
The North Andros and the Berry Islands constituency race features three of the best contenders in this political cycle. Desmond Bannister (FNM), Dr Perry Gomez (PLP) and Randy Butler (DNA) are all well-respected and could all serve as MPs in their own right.
However, this election cycle the political door will be slammed in the faces of Gomez and Butler. Frankly, I believe that at his age Dr Gomez should have stayed away from the political front lines and instead enjoyed the twilight of his medical career without any nightmares of being politically manhandled by Desmond Bannister.
North Eleuthera
The North Eleuthera constituency should be an exciting race to watch. The run-off between Theo Neilly (FNM)—an airport manager and local government chief councilor—and Spanish Wells fisherman and fellow local government councilor Clay Sweeting (PLP) is expected to be a hotly contested affair. Mr Neilly should win the seat.
Pineridge
Current MP Kwasi Thompson has been an outstanding representative, whilst PLP challenger Dr. Michael Darville—who has a medical practice in the constituency—has also earned much praise from residents.
Frankly, I still believe that the PLP should have nominated Dr Darville in the Marco City constituency, as he is not overwhelmingly favoured to beat Mr Thompson. That said, Dr. Darville is a formidable candidate and, whilst Mr Thompson holds a slight edge at this time, the quality of the candidates vying for the voters support in this race could cause the pendulum to swing either way. This race will certainly be a nail biter.
Pinewood
The Pinewood seat is a toss-up!
Although, like the Klingons, FNM MP Byron Woodside has mastered the art of invisibility—in terms of his ministerial portfolio—by all accounts he has done a creditable job in his constituency. However, Pinewood has long been a PLP stronghold and Khaalis Rolle could—depending on changes within the voting bloc and the luck of the political draw—capitalize on the extensive love affair this constituency has had with the PLP. The race for Pinewood will no doubt be close and quite competitive.
Sea Breeze
Hope Strachan (PLP) will puncture the ego of a cocky guy in Sea Breeze. Outgoing FNM MP Carl Bethel, who has become a nowhere man of Bahamian politics, will suffer an ego-busting defeat in Sea Breeze.
In 2007, Mrs Strachan lost by 64 votes after campaigning in the constituency for just six weeks!
South Beach
Monique Gomez (FNM) is likely to win the South Beach seat over Cleola Hamilton (PLP) who is becoming increasing unpopular among constituents.
Southern Shores
The Southern Shores contest is the race between three PLPs—two of whom are now members of the FNM and the DNA. Whilst I believe that Kenyatta Gibson (FNM) may hold a slight edge, Kenred Dorsett is a strong opponent and the impact of DNA candidate Dr Madeline Sawyer could also affect the outcome. The seat is too close to call!
St Anne’s
Accountant Hubert Chipman (FNM) will win the St Anne’s seat, with the only question being, “by how much?”
Outgoing MP Brent Symonette won by nearly 64 per cent of the votes (990-plus votes) cast in the St Annes constituency in the last general election, so one waits to see if Mr Chipman, upon dispatching PLP candidate Greg Burrows, will have a similar margin of victory.
Tall Pines
Leslie Miller (PLP) will politically extinguish Karen Butler (FNM) in Tall Pines. Ms Butler is a sacrificial lamb and her chances could only be great in her own imagination. Mr Miller, a self-described pot cake, is a political groundhog and will politically clobber Ms Butler.
West Grand Bahama and Bimini
The West Grand Bahama and Bimini seat is most interesting. Incumbent Obie Wilchcombe (PLP), the presumed frontrunner, is in a hotly contested race against Pakeisha Edgecombe (FNM) in what will be one of the most watched electoral races in 2012. A review of the seat shows that parts of the Eight Mile Rock settlement—Hanna Hill, Pinedale, Martin Town and Russell Town—which are now in the reconfigured constituency are more PLP-leaning areas, whilst FNM-leaning areas such as Queens Cove have been added to Pineridge or appended to Central Grand Bahama. Bimini which has about 1000 votes has been nearly evenly split over the last 30 years. Besides Mr Wilchcombe, former PLP MP Henry Bowen is the only other person—based on polling data—to win Bimini in two consecutive elections.
In the race for West Grand Bahama and Bimini, I would give incumbent Obie Wilchcombe the edge over Edgecombe in favour of his retention of the seat.
Yamacraw
Lastly, Yamacraw will be a battle royale between Melanie Griffin (PLP) and Dion Foulkes (FNM). Over the years, Mrs Griffin has been said to have a stranglehold on the seat and the addition of half of the Elizabeth Estates community to her seat appears to strengthen her. That said, challenger Dion Foulkes, a political groundhog and a veteran, will prove to be no push over. For now, I’ll categorize the race in Yamacraw as a toss-up!
The upcoming general election will be a political circus and a helluva election season which will leave, upon its conclusion, quite a number of sitting MPs and electoral hopefuls shell-shocked and reaching for a crying towel!
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