By Brent Dean ~ Guardian Senior Reporter ~ brentldean@nasguard.com:
The decision by more than 1,700 registered voters not to participate in the Elizabeth by-election may indicate that a significant block of Bahamians either rejected, or are not interested in, the message being offered by either the Free National Movement or the Progressive Liberal Party.
When the recount is over, the winner of the by-election would have received just over 30 percent of the registered votes in the area.
With the PLP and the FNM having national base support somewhere between 30 and 40 percent each, it appears that not even all of the faithful showed up to vote on Tuesday.
The Bahamas is going through one of its worse economic periods since Independence. As a result of the global recession thousands of Bahamians are out of work. The level of violent crime in the country has also hit record levels.
In this context, an opposition party should be able to defeat the governing party in a by-election, in a classic swing seat.
The Christie-led PLP could not do this.
Conversely, it could be argued that the FNM should have done better. The PLP has moved from controversy to controversy since the last general election.
One PLP member of Parliament (Kenyatta Gibson) crossed the floor of the House of Assembly and joined the FNM; another (Malcolm Adderley) resigned, criticizing Christie; and former party senator (Pleasant Bridgewater) is about to face retrial on attempted extortion charges.
Neither party could use the strong negatives against the other to distance itself in this race. The voters in this swing seat have perceived little to no difference between the major parties.
The Elizabeth vote should force both leaders back to the drawing board to find new messages, policies and platforms if they are serious about running in 2012.
The results show that the Elizabeth campaign did not inspire.
However, what the results also show is that no matter how dissatisfied Bahamians may be with the PLP and the FNM, they will not support a third party.
The youthful enthusiasm of Cassius Stuart and Dr. Andre Rollins should be applauded. But if either man wants to ever sit in the House, he must put on either a yellow or red shirt.
This deep conservatism - Bahamians not being willing to try a third force - has a consequence. If Bahamians will not vote for others, then there is no pressure on either the PLP or FNM to reform their message; and there is also no pressure on the major parties to change the faces that lead the organization.
In this equation the major parties only need to defeat each other rather than seek to court voters.
Some observers argue that the number of voters who did not show up on Tuesday is likely less that 1,700. It is true that some people on the 2007 register may have moved or died since then.
This, though, would only reduce the number of non-voters by a few hundred.
The PLP and FNM must now face the reality that the degree of voter apathy in Elizabeth may exist in swing seats across the country.
The parties must determine if their message (or messengers) no longer appeal to voters.
Now, a saving grace for the major parties may be that many Elizabeth voters stayed at home waiting for the next general election, as they know that Tuesday's result will not change the overall balance of power in Parliament.
February 18, 2010
thenassauguardian
A political blog about Bahamian politics in The Bahamas, Bahamian Politicans - and the entire Bahamas political lot. Bahamian Blogger Dennis Dames keeps you updated on the political news and views throughout the islands of The Bahamas without fear or favor. Bahamian Politicians and the Bahamian Political Arena: Updates one Post at a time on Bahamas Politics and Bahamas Politicans; and their local, regional and international policies and perspectives.
