Rallying the FNM's troops
thenassauguardian editorial
When Branville McCartney launched his Democratic National Alliance (DNA) last week who was in attendance at the launch was as interesting as what was said by McCartney.
The Free National Movement (FNM) usually dominates in the wealthier parts of the country.
Constituencies such as Yamacraw, Killarney, Clifton, St. Anne’s and Montagu are out of the reach of the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP). For various reasons, the middle and upper classes lean FNM.
At McCartney’s launch in that filled room at the Wyndham Cable Beach Resort, the people who looked excited, the people who chanted, the people who listened attentively dressed in their nice clothing looked like members of the same demographic groups the FNM does well in.
If an FNM landslide was imminent, losing a few supporters would not really matter. That would only mean that the party’s margins of victory in the various constituencies would be less.
In a close election, however, losing 100 to 200 FNM votes per constituency to a third party could cost the FNM most of the swing seats in the country.
We do not think FNM leader and Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham fears McCartney. However, he should fear the loss of FNM votes at a time when the electorate still appears closely divided between the two main parties.
To avoid this Ingraham would need to take a divisive stand and not ignore McCartney. He would need to tell FNMs that a vote for McCartney is a vote for the PLP, as each FNM vote that goes to a party that cannot form a government makes it easier for PLP leader Perry Christie to take back the government.
Older leaders tend to dismiss young upstarts. The old chief thinks the young man cannot threaten him because he has no experience and no record. And sadly, the sycophants (yes-men) who surround political leaders allow them to believe they are invincible. If the chief says the newcomer cannot threaten him, they agree.
Ingraham must avoid this trap if he wants to be prime minister a fourth time. McCartney is as much a threat to the FNM as Christie – just in a different way. A successful FNM will need all of its base onboard. McCartney would need to be branded as a tool of the PLP, in a way, to ensure that the base does not transgress and support a FNM son who has for the time being gone rouge.
To be sure he is getting the right advice, the PM should also ensure that his inner circle includes some people who regularly tell him things he does not like to hear; and things he does not believe. This election will be tough. All assumptions need to be set aside and the political landscape and mood need to be realistically assessed if the governing party is to be successful.
All of those men and women who think every word and thought uttered by the leader is gospel are as dangerous as the other parties. They help leaders believe their inaccurate perceptions and bad ideas are brilliant. Sober antagonistic advice is more useful.
A battle looms at the polls. The party that embraces wise strategy, discipline and organization will win.
5/18/2011
thenassauguardian editorial
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