Pondering third party success
thenassauguardian editorial
We are nearing our next general election. Thus far the opposition parties have been active agitating and campaigning. The Democratic National Alliance (DNA) is attempting to make a mark its first time out. From his public proclamations, DNA leader Branville McCartney thinks he has a real shot at being the next prime minister of The Bahamas.
It will be difficult for McCartney to win. The country has been locked in a political duopoly for some time. The Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) and the Free National Movement (FNM) are the only parties many would consider voting for.
It is necessary, though, to explore the options if by some magic the DNA does well.
There are currently 41 seats in the House of Assembly. A party would need to win at least 21 seats to have a majority government. If the DNA wins a chunk of seats along with the two main parties, other type of governments would have to be considered.
Most Bahamians are familiar with coalition governance – as currently exists in the United Kingdom. Under this form of government parties with seats come together to form a majority government with the party or parties with fewer seats receiving a negotiated number of cabinet posts and other appointed posts in exchange for adding support to the main party or group of parties.
Assuming the PLP and FNM have more seats, McCartney would be courted aggressively and offered the world by each party for his support.
The other possibility would be for a minority government to be formed. In this scenario one of the parties that won a large number of seats, but not a majority, would have to convince the governor general that it could govern. The convention usually is that the party with the largest number of seats without a majority gets the first chance to form a minority government.
What then happens is that the minority government has to govern by consensus. At each confidence vote in the elected chamber of the Parliament, that government could be defeated because the combined opposition would have a majority. However, minority governments make accommodations on each confidence bill, ensuring that enough of the opposition supports the measure. This prevents the government from being toppled.
Negotiation is crucial in minority government situations. These government, though, are unstable and usually short-lived. In Canada minority governments last on average around a year and a half. Canada had minority governments from 2004 up to earlier this year when the Conservative Party won a majority.
If the DNA can win some seats, McCartney will have some tough choices to make. In such a situation it would probably be wise for him not to align himself with either of the two old parties. If many Bahamians take the leap of faith and ‘go green’ at the next general election all of the followers who wanted to vote for the DNA, but were too scared to, would likely come on board at the following election.
Getting into bed with the PLP or FNM would damage McCartney’s message. How could he be different or represent change by either returning to Hubert Ingraham or embracing Perry Christie?
If the people support this third party in any meaningful way Bahamian politics will be forever changed. McCartney does not need to come anywhere near to a majority to become, at least for a few days, the most powerful man in the country.
Aug 15, 2011
thenassauguardian editorial
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