Election predictions - part 1
By ADRIAN GIBSON
ajbahama@hotmail.com
AS ELECTION draweth nigh, it is anticipated that drama will surely accompany the impending showdown. Indeed, as ham/turkey/dryer/washer season rolls around once more, I'm hopeful that a more edified electorate will reject political paternalism and demand change--demand that the substantive societal/national issues are addressed.
Thus far, whilst the FNM party seems slow-footed in announcing its slate of candidates, the electioneering has clearly begun as is evident by Opposition Leader Perry Christie and his Deputy's (Philip Davis) flurry of Family Island trips conducting what they refer to as a listening tour.
Frankly, as the electoral clock ticks away, there are a few sitting Members of Parliament who have virtually fallen off a cliff and have literally disappeared in their constituencies whilst others are visionless and/or have adopted an attitude of entitlement and intolerance. Undoubtedly, there will be fits of hysteria and much whimpering following this electoral cycle. There are quite a number of politicians who are said to be on the endangered species list--marching onward toward the political gallows.
It is expected that the newly-constituted Boundaries Commission will redraw some constituency boundaries using recent census and voter registration data to determine population shifts and, frankly, the favourable cuts for electoral success.
Notably, the FNM must also be concerned about its weakening presence in Grand Bahama which continues to suffer immense economic woes.
That said, I've decided to don my monk's garb and attempt to read the political tea leaves, making preliminary electoral projections relative to the political odds of the purported candidates contesting seats in the upcoming elections. One must be mindful that this preliminary tally--to be later followed up--comes as ratifications and candidate selection is ongoing and, moreover, boundaries have yet to be cut.
Mano-a-mano, for Dr Hubert Minnis (FNM) the electoral race against opponent Jerome Gomez (PLP) will be like running against a cupcake. Depending on how far Dr Minnis outruns him at the polls--and it seems that the gap will be wide--Mr Gomez may need a powerful telescope to even see his opponent.
The doctor has been a stellar MP and a smooth political salesman who actually delivers. His challenger is likely to be politically manhandled in a horrifying loss that will expose him--politically--as a paper tiger.
Annihilate
PLP MP Obie Wilchcombe will politically annihilate purported FNM candidate Jeff Butler. Wilchcombe, an oratorically-gifted Parliamentarian, has been a superb MP and is likely to jettison Mr Butler--a grocery store owner--to the political dustbin.
PLP candidate Dr Danny Johnson is likely to be shell-shocked and in denial after being KO'd by Desmond Bannister in the Carmichael constituency. It is anticipated that Dr Johnson--son of the late MP Oscar Johnson, brother of former House Speaker Italia Johnson and son-in-law of the late former PM Sir Lynden Pindling--will mobilize the PLP's campaign machinery/resources in the area. That said, Dr Johnson is likely to have recurring nightmares following this election episode.
Contrary to recent speculation, Mr Bannister is set to run in Carmichael again although reliable sources inform me that due to purported variations of the electoral map-- that would be an attempt to cut-out strong polling divisions to save the politically unpopular Charles Maynard's seat--he considered a run in his home town, North Andros.
The reality is that if Mr Bannister--a strong candidate--loses, for the FNM, the domino effect would probably afflict the entire Southwestern area. Mr Bannister's electoral outcome could potentially coincide with the outcome of neighbouring seats. That said, he's expected to at least win his seat.
Former MP Leslie "Potcake" Miller will politically clobber incumbent Sidney Collie in Blue Hills.
This race is set to be a carnivorous affair. Constituents assert that Mr Collie has been a resounding disappointment, malignantly neglecting his constituency and performing abysmally.
Any expectancy of Mr Collie winning his seat is comparable to waiting for VAT 19 (liquor) to turn 20!
Naturally, both parties concede certain seats--for e.g. Long Island (usually FNM) and Englerston (traditionally PLP)--offering second tier candidates who are considered to be sacrificial lambs who make up the party's frontline numbers.
That said, the race for the Long Island/Ragged Island yields an exploitable mismatch as incumbent Larry Cartwright faces off against PLP newcomer Alex Storr--son of businessman Henry F Storr. Unfortunately for him, in Long Island, Mr Storr will suffer a humiliating loss.
Branville McCartney, depending on his political decisions, could likely retain his Bamboo Town seat.
As an FNM, and perhaps even if Mr McCartney becomes an independent, he would be a strong and favoured contender. However, if he joins a new party, he will suffer a political death.
Currently, Mr McCartney is in a very critical position politically, however he must rid himself of any notion that its normal to be "half-pregnant"--that is, either he's with the FNM or he's not.
Will Mr McCartney's move happen during the BTC debate? Were his recent comments/actions a precursor to what his true intentions are, that is, to separate himself from the pack and portray himself as a man with the gumption to stand against Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham? Is his decision predicated upon the position he takes with the BTC debate? In the wake of the Prime Minister's recent remarks relative to a snap election if all FNM MPs do not support the BTC sale in Parliament, is the ground now loosening under Mr McCartney?
I've been informed that the Clifton constituency will no longer exist. Moreover, as a result of this constituency being eliminated, I'm told that incumbent MP Kendal Wright will be offered a nomination to contest the Golden Gates seat. I'm told that because Mr Wright was raised in the Sunshine Park area of the constituency, he should be a "natural fit" to challenge incumbent MP Shane Gibson. Frankly, barring any other happenings, Wright--who is an uninspiring candidate--will lose to Shane Gibson, who is a political powerhouse in the area and has a diehard support base.
The MICAL constituency is being divided into the Inagua and Mayaguana constituency and Acklins, Crooked Island and Long Cay, respectively.
FNM Senator Dion "The Bruiser" Foulkes is set to triumph over his challenger in the new Inagua and Mayaguana constituency.
Nomination
I was told that the likely forerunner for the FNM nomination in Acklins, Crooked Island and Long Cay was Johnley Ferguson. However, that appears to be a moot point now that Mr Ferguson has signed a two year contract as a consultant with the Department of Lands and Surveys. Incumbent Alfred Gray is likely to put a shellacking on his opponent.
South Andros MP Picewell Forbes will be wielding a big, electoral tamarind switch for FNM challenger and COB lecturer Zendal Forbes. Although Picewell Forbers may encounter some difficulties if former MP Whitney Bastian nominates as an independent candidate, he's expected to retain the seat with Mr Z Forbes coming a distant third as an "also-ran" candidate.
FNM insiders assert that Carl Bethel has worn-out his welcome in Sea Breeze. However, his uncertain political fortune is dependent upon the candidate that the PLP settles on running against Mr Bethel.
Of late, Hope Strachan--Bethel's strongest challenger--has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Fort Charlotte MP Alfred Sears who has announced that he will not seek re-election.
However, if Ms Strachan remains in Sea Breeze, Carl Bethel will suffer a shellacking.
In 2007, Ms Strachan lost by 60-plus votes after campaigning in the constituency for a mere six weeks.
Mr Bethel appears out of touch with the electorate and, unfortunately, has a massive risk factor concerning his candidacy--that is, the perception that he's arrogant and egotistical.
Moreover, another scenario discussed is the possible nomination of lawyer Myles Laroda in Sea Breeze, apparently the PLP's compromise for snubbing him in South Beach. Frankly, Laroda would be defeated by Bethel. The PLP's best chance of capturing that seat is to leave Hope Strachan as the nominee. No doubt, the PLP would be smart to smack down any inkling to move Ms Strachan to the other side of town.
The Fort Charlotte district--no longer being contested by PLP MP Alfred Sears--should be a political duel.
Sources assert that the boundaries will extend further into Dr Minnis' Killarney constituency to facilitate a successful run by FNM candidate Vincent Vanderpool Wallace.
I'm also informed that the recently departed former NDP leader (now PLP) Dr Andre Rollins is also vying for the nod in Fort Charlotte. There are those who argue that Dr Rollins--a political journeyman--lacks the political capital to win a contest. The race for Fort Charlotte could go either way.
Brent Symonette will retain the St Annes seat. Mr Symonette, who won nearly 64 per cent of the votes cast in his constituency in the last general election, will handily dispatch any challengers (said to be Billy Nottage or another applicant).
Loretta Butler-Turner will banish her challenger to the political wilderness and roar down victory lane in the Montagu constituency.
Mrs Butler-Turner won by a margin of more than 68 per cent of the total votes cast in her constituency during the last general election--the largest margin that year.
FNM nominee for St Cecilia Karen Shepherd--the former president of the Women's Association--will be a victim of circumstance. In a traditionally PLP stronghold, Ms Shepherd is a rookie politician whose candidacy reminds me of a wilting candle.
I'm informed that Ms Shepherd requested to run in St Cecilia since her father James Shepherd--a member of the Dissident Eight--once represented the area.
However, from the looks of things, Ms Shepherd could perhaps begin writing her biography, with it perhaps reading "I also ran in St Cecilia, etcetera" and being filled out during her lifetime.
Glenys Hanna-Martin has a strong political wind at her back in the Englerston constituency. The constituency is also a traditional PLP stronghold.
March 18, 2011
2012 General Election Predictions (Part 2) - Bahamas
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