Branville McCartney and the 2012 election
By ADRIAN GIBSON
ajbahama@hotmail.com
IN THE next general election, it appears that newly independent MP Branville McCartney and his purported new party are hoping that Bahamians are tired of playing musical chairs between the two major parties--FNM and PLP--and are more inclined to vote for, and even elect, a third party force. Frankly, our politically expedient culture, coupled with our more traditional Westminster system--where third parties are speedily dispatched to the political gallows and certain political death--dreams of a third party capturing the imagination of the masses are futile this electoral cycle, regardless of the false promises of support made by many fair-weather bandwagon riders in the months before the official campaigns/rallies kickoff.
Without a doubt, Mr McCartney is a self-styled populist whose recent resignation from the FNM--whilst expressing opposition to the BTC deal with Cable and Wireless Communications--has sent shock waves throughout the political sphere and wider Bahamian society. Indeed, whilst there are some who see McCartney's move as standing up for his beliefs and being demonstrative of him showing that he has heart and isn't merely a bootlicker, others see it as a display that is nothing short of full-blown, megalomaniacal grandstanding.
Contrary to the speculation regarding the BTC sale--where a widespread mutiny was rumoured to be in the works within the ranks of the FNM's Parliamentary caucus and was supposedly inclusive of Mr McCartney and three other FNM MPs--no such incident occurred. Whether the alleged MPs chickened out or not remains a mystery, however, there was no crescendo of voices--within the FNM, among the masses and, I'm told, not even among scores of the employees at BTC--absolutely rebuking the sale of the telecoms company.
Quite honestly, it appears that there will be a political bloodletting in Bamboo Town, with both the FNM and the PLP running candidates and plotting an ambush of Mr McCartney at the polls. With lots of finger-jabbing and verbal bricks being thrown, the contest for the Bamboo Town seat has quickly become a highly contentious matter, seemingly leaving McCartney at a political crossroads and facing a stormy, most combative political season that will see the electoral machinery of both major parties descend upon Bamboo Town.
According to some accounts, Mr McCartney's purported new entity--if it comes to fruition--could feature one or two political rejects who were cast off by the major parties due to character flaws and questionable dealings. Mr McCartney must be careful not to surround himself with shifty characters and sycophants and must, if he leads a new party, seek to establish a renewed sense of purpose and a coherent political philosophy that appeals to the national consciousness. So, is Bran McCartney close-up-ready? What are his views on the Bahamas' future?
It remains to be seen whether Bran McCartney's apparent out-performance of many of his former Cabinet colleagues was merely artificial hype and a fluke because he headed a highly emotive ministry--Immigration--or because he genuinely possessed ideas and leadership acumen. That said, in this upcoming election cycle, it appears the third party votes will merely tip the scale in favour of one of the major parties as opposed to the other, and not the third parties themselves. I'm doubtful that any of the current or yet-to-be-announced third parties in a general election have reached the stage where they would've encroached upon the percentage of any given party (FNM/PLP) to make people think that a third party is a force to be reckoned with.
Can Mr McCartney woo independent, non-ideological voters particularly in this age of identity politics? Will Mr McCartney's resignation and the impending showdown in Bamboo Town, coupled with the formation of a new party, expose him as having stepped into a pair of oversized shoes?
As good an MP as he appears to have been, will Mr McCartney find himself hopelessly in the political wilderness after the next election?
And, why didn't Mr McCartney own his political moment and vote no to the BTC sale whilst sitting as an FNM and then allow the FNM to expel him from the party? Why did he resign and walk out of Parliament instead of facing the music-- wouldn't that have had greater historical effect? No doubt, he would have gone down in history and become an even bigger political rock star.
Why didn't McCartney bring some of his Bamboo Town constituents with him to Parliament as a show of support for his vote on the BTC sale and his resignation from the FNM?
Indeed, it is true that some within the FNM are whooping and hollering now that Mr McCartney has divorced the party, particularly as he was a strong threat to their chances of ascending to the FNM leadership in the post-Ingraham era (likely 2017).
Has McCartney's political stock depreciated from self-inflicted wounds or is it just burgeoning?
Did McCartney buy into his own public relations?
Is the FNM's ongoing and much publicized response to Mr McCartney's resignation an indication of a seismic crack in their electoral machinery? Now that McCartney has abandoned the FNM, will he ever be catapulted into a much higher political stratosphere--that is, that of Prime Minister? Will Mr McCartney do a "Bernard Nottage" and abandon the proposed political entity and one day return to the FNM, this time to assume the party's leadership? Is McCartney's rumoured formation of a new party merely a vehicle to demonstrate his leadership abilities in hopes of impressing the internal machinery of the FNM and being invited back as their political saviour in 2017?
As I said in an earlier column, now that Bran McCartney has taken his fate into his own hands, if he remains an independent--a true independent--he's likely to still attract many marginal, non-ideological and independent-minded voters--a class of voters that's rapidly expanding with today's younger, more educated electorate.
Indeed, there remains a jingoistic adoration of the Bamboo Town MP. Moreover, Mr McCartney--regardless of the chair throwing and stirring dramatics at the FNM's recent town hall meeting in the constituency--has a sizeable FNM following and FNMs have, in the past, shown themselves willing to vote independent if they feel that the party didn't do the right thing. In this case, McCartney may not find that support as many FNMs feel like he walked out on them.
Frankly, Mr McCartney would likely suffer a political death if he joins another party--or perhaps forms his own--and thereby returns to the electorate after one term with another "label" attached.
Quite honestly, McCartney should postpone any plans for a third party and instead focus on winning his own seat!
Moreover, this political season Mr McCartney must avoid appearing like a disgruntled FNM and engaging in petty bickering, instead promulgating ideas and promoting national initiatives.
In Bamboo Town, he has demonstrated an ideal work ethic and has a body of work--within the constituency--to bolster his campaign. McCartney, among his constituents, is heralded as a hard worker, a young man who understands the true purpose of Parliamentary representation of his constituents.
Reliable sources have informed me that there are plans afoot to outfox Mr McCartney at the polls, writing him off as a showman, whose "groundless" braggadocio, will douse his electoral prospects and place him on a treadmill to oblivion whilst also serving as a teachable moment to a cadre of political newcomers. One FNM insider advised me to watch the "shifting landscape."
Bran McCartney must now wade through a political minefield and, as one who was once considered the future face of the FNM, his resignation has led to a man--who potentially could've risen to the leadership of the FNM--ushering himself out of the throne room.
Frankly, if Mr McCartney is relegated to the political dustbin following the next general election, he would be another politician crushed by the machinery of the major parties. However, if he wins, he's likely to be a force to be reckoned with, particularly if he articulates ideas and is not blinded by ego.
That said, if the Bahamas continues to be a red (FNM) and gold (PLP) state, young persons promoting change and aspiring for leadership may have to fight from within the internal structure of the major parties, seeking to convince council and executive members of the value of their candidacy and the importance of new ideas in advancing the country--unless, of course, there is a political revolution!
April 09, 2011
tribune242
A political blog about Bahamian politics in The Bahamas, Bahamian Politicans - and the entire Bahamas political lot. Bahamian Blogger Dennis Dames keeps you updated on the political news and views throughout the islands of The Bahamas without fear or favor. Bahamian Politicians and the Bahamian Political Arena: Updates one Post at a time on Bahamas Politics and Bahamas Politicans; and their local, regional and international policies and perspectives.
