2012 General Election Predictions (Part 2) - The Bahamas

Election predictions - part 2

By ADRIAN GIBSON
ajbahama@hotmail.com

THE odds are stacked against Zhivargo Laing in Marco City in the next general election.

Frankly, the race in this constituency appears to be between two unpopular candidates. Mr Laing, who may yet again have to move to another constituency (similar to the constant relocation of former PLP MP Paul Adderley) is said to have worn-out his welcome in his constituency. Constituents have complained that Mr Laing is out of touch with public sentiment and have objected to being seen or addressed in a patronizing, condescending manner by any politician. Mr Laing's constituents have complained about an air of perceived arrogance and expressed an interest in having Mr Laing spend more time actually listening (genuinely) to their concerns. The Marco City MP is a banana peel away from slipping into the political abyss. PLP nominee Greg Moss (lawyer) is likely to defeat him.

Brensil Rolle, the Garden Hills MP, will likely defeat Dr Kendal Major. Mr Rolle is apparently quite popular on the ground and considering the population shifts in the constituency--due to the recent construction and sale of houses in newly constructed housing subdivisions--he may have the advantage in an electoral showdown.

Vincent Peet, the MP for North Andros has been relatively quiet of late. Mr Peet is likely to retain his seat.

Melanie Griffin will politically sucker punch FNM challenger Joshua Sears. I am told that the boundary cuts will favour Sears, extending Yamacraw further eastward into large chunks of Brent Symonette's St Annes' constituency. However, because there are also plans afoot to relocate Phenton Neymour to the Exuma constituency, Mr Sears' name has been bandied about as a likely replacement for Mr Neymour in South Beach.

Lacklustre

If Phenton Neymour contests the South Beach seat, his teeth "will be on edge" having tested the sour grapes of what's said to be an impending defeat. Mr Neymour lacks the political horsepower to recapture the seat, as many residents express displeasure with his lackluster representation.

However, if Mr Neymour runs in Exuma, he could possibly edge out incumbent PLP MP Anthony Moss. Mr Moss is said to be unpopular in the Exuma Cays and has rendered a performance that is purportedly the reason for much voter discontent. Black Point residents--the second largest polling division--claim to have not seen Mr Moss since the last general election. Noticeably, Mr Neymour has made frequent trips into the Exuma constituency of late. Even more, of late Mr Neymour has also dropped the moniker he used to describe his constituents in Parliament--"the kings and queens of South Beach"--giving one the impression that perhaps the underlying notion now is that the Royal family of South Beach are preparing to dismiss their servant.

That said, Neymour's entrance into the Exuma race will leave the constituency too close to call--for now.

Notably, if Joshua Sears contests the South Beach seat as the standard bearer for the FNM, he has a more favourable chance of defeating Nurses Union president Cleola Hamilton (PLP), who has already been described by some residents as "charmless."

The Fox Hill seat could go either way. I'm told that the boundary cuts will now incorporate a polling division--out of Montagu and near to Step Street--in hopes of assisting challenger Dr Jacintha Higgs (a lady who wears the most enrapturing outfits) in gaining a foothold on the constituency and rendering current MP Fred Mitchell a seatless wonder. By all accounts, Mr Mitchell has been a visible, working MP, thereby leaving his opponent with a long, tough journey to the polls. My electoral crystal ball could not yet reveal a likely winner in this contest.

Kenyatta Gibson, the bombastic-talking MP for Kennedy, is abandoning the constituency and running as the FNM's candidate in South Eleuthera. Although incumbent MP Oswald Ingraham is in his 70s, he could still vie for the seat or be replaced by one of eight applicants for the PLP nomination--a list that I am told includes local government chief councilor Hank Johnson.

Although Mr Gibson and his family purportedly have roots in the constituency, it is likely that he will be sent deeper into political oblivion following the next election. It appears that Mr Gibson walked the Parliamentary floor and will now be walking out of Parliament altogether!

Tommy Turnquest holds a slight edge over Arnold Forbes in the race for Mount Moriah. Although the Bahamas remains in a state of national "un-security", Mr Forbes' campaign may become anemic and lose traction due to reported business-related issues emanating from Canada.

Comeback

Bain and Grants Town is likely to remain in the PLP column, as Dr Bernard Nottage is expected to take out whoever the FNM nominee will be. At this juncture, party insiders inform me that the former area MP Gregory Williams is vying for the nomination in an attempt to make a political comeback; also reportedly seeking the nod is former candidate David Jordine and Rev CB Moss, who is said to be in talks with the FNM. Of course, Bain and Grants Town is a traditionally PLP seat.

PLP leader Perry Christie will most certainly humiliate his challenger in the Farm Road constituency.

The race for the Marathon constituency is setting up to be a slugfest. Of late, newcomer Jerome Fitzgerald has amped up his courtship of constituents by purchasing alarm systems and having them installed in their homes. Whilst incumbent Dr Earl Deveaux certainly has the upper hand, having spoken to constituents and political insiders from both of the major parties, I've concluded that the Marathon brawl is too close to call at this time.

The contest for North Eleuthera constituency--given the decision of House Speaker Alvin Smith not to stand for re-election--should be an exciting race to watch. Purported FNM candidate Theo Neilly--an airport manager and local government chief councilor--is slated to run against Spanish Wells native and fellow local government councilor Clay Sweeting. However, for the FNM, lawyer Richard Lightbourne's name has also been mentioned as a possible nominee. Here again, it's too far out to call this race, particularly since--at least on the national scene--both candidates are political neophytes. However, I am told that the contest for North Eleuthera is expected to be a costly affair, with lots of money changing hands.

The voters of Golden Isles will rebuke MP Charles Maynard in a runoff where challenger Michael Halkitis is expected to beat the incumbent MP like a piñata. A walloping could leave Mr Maynard having fits of post-election hysteria and, like the movie Sleepless in Seattle, he'll likely be Sleepless in Golden Isles.

During his term in office, Mr Maynard has struck me as a representative/minister who--unlike the movie--politically has no true grit.

With Kenyatta Gibson speedily running away to Eleuthera, the Kennedy seat will easily remain a PLP stronghold with newcomer Dion Smith trouncing all challengers.

PLP Deputy Leader and MP for Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador Philip "Brave" Davis will put a spanking on FNM challenger George Wilson. In the past, Mr Wilson unsuccessfully ran as an independent candidate in the same constituency.

There is also another angle that must be explored relative to Mr Davis' political future as he has been speculated as having an interest in relocating to the St Cecilia seat. PLP insiders inform me that if Mr Davis runs in St Cecilia, the party is likely to send former Police Commissioner BK Bonamy to vie for the Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador seat.

There is chatter that Verna Grant, FNM MP for Eight Mile Rock, is facing some serious opposition. Purportedly, Ms Grant is attempting to retain her nomination as former Senator Kay Forbes is said to be interested in displacing Ms Grant and running for the FNM in that seat. In what some say will be a tumultuous election season for her, Ms Grant is also expected to face vigorous challenges from potential PLP nominees such as Sandra Edgecombe (former principal at Eight Mile Rock High), Caleb Outten or a yet unnamed opponent. This time around, it appears that the polls could go either way.

High Rock MP Kenneth Russell (FNM) will rout the still unnamed PLP challenger in this largely FNM borough.

Lucaya MP Neko Grant will torpedo the electoral hopes of supposed PLP nominee Dr Lea Percentie.

The Pineridge seat is being contested by two five-star candidates. It is unfortunate that one of these men will have to politically cancel out the other.

Current MP Kwasi Thompson has been an outstanding representative, whilst challenger PLP Senator Dr Michael Darville--who has a medical practice in the constituency--also earned much praise from residents.

Frankly, the PLP should have nominated Dr Darville in the Marco City constituency, as he is not overwhelmingly favoured to beat Mr Thompson as opposed to the outright favourable rating in a race against Zhivargo Laing. That said, Dr Darville is a formidable candidate and, whilst Mr Thompson holds a slight edge at this time, the quality of the candidates vying for the voters support in this race could cause the pendulum to swing either way. This race will certainly be a nail biter, i.e. if Dr Darville is not transplanted to contest the Marco City seat.

PLP incumbent Frank Smith will face-off against likely FNM challenger Linda Treco in the St Thomas More constituency. By all accounts, Mr Smith has earned the ire of the Prime Minister, so it is expected that the full weight of the FNM's electoral machinery will be coming down upon him.

Reliable sources inform me that upcoming boundary cuts will place a portion of St Thomas More in Loretta Butler-Turner's Montagu constituency, arguing that because she won by more than 1000 votes in the last election, she can likely absorb some votes against her and still preserve a comfortable margin in another victorious run. Apparently, a portion of Fox Hill will likewise be absorbed into Brent Symonette's St Anne's constituency. I'm also told that Paradise Island will become a part of the new St Thomas More constituency.

Creditable

Pinewood, a PLP foothold, could once again return to the party's win column. Frankly, MP Byron Woodside has done a creditable job in the constituency. However, a loss may, among other factors, be due to changes within the voting block and the luck of the political draw as the constituency has had an extensive love affair with the PLP. The race for Pinewood will no doubt be close and quite competitive.

According to sources, the PLP intend to run attorney Damian Gomez in Pinewood.

Flip a coin and, quite similarly, the Elizabeth constituency can go either way although incumbent Ryan Pinder (PLP) is favoured--at this juncture--to retain his seat. That said, I've been clued-up by FNM insiders of the likely mapping out of a favourable boundary cut for challenger Dr Duane Sands--a cut which is set to incorporate "more FNM polling divisions" and cut-out a part of Elizabeth Estates.

Edison Key will retain his South Abaco seat.

Prime Minister and FNM leader Hubert Ingraham will crush all challengers--whether that is Ky Mills and/or Jackson McIntosh--in the race for the North Abaco seat. Frankly, the electoral hopes of Mr Ingraham's challengers are comparable to running in quick sand--struggling and sinking fast!

As we enter another general election season, Bahamians must begin to demand true and visionary leadership within their constituencies and on the national front.

The upcoming general election will certainly--as is seen every five years--be a political circus. Indeed, this will be a helluva election season, which will leave--upon its conclusion--more than a handful of sitting MPs and electoral hopefuls reaching for a crying towel.

March 19, 2011

2012 General Election Predictions (Part 1) - Bahamas

tribune242

2012 General Election Predictions - Bahamas

Election predictions - part 1
By ADRIAN GIBSON
ajbahama@hotmail.com



AS ELECTION draweth nigh, it is anticipated that drama will surely accompany the impending showdown. Indeed, as ham/turkey/dryer/washer season rolls around once more, I'm hopeful that a more edified electorate will reject political paternalism and demand change--demand that the substantive societal/national issues are addressed.

Thus far, whilst the FNM party seems slow-footed in announcing its slate of candidates, the electioneering has clearly begun as is evident by Opposition Leader Perry Christie and his Deputy's (Philip Davis) flurry of Family Island trips conducting what they refer to as a listening tour.

Frankly, as the electoral clock ticks away, there are a few sitting Members of Parliament who have virtually fallen off a cliff and have literally disappeared in their constituencies whilst others are visionless and/or have adopted an attitude of entitlement and intolerance. Undoubtedly, there will be fits of hysteria and much whimpering following this electoral cycle. There are quite a number of politicians who are said to be on the endangered species list--marching onward toward the political gallows.

It is expected that the newly-constituted Boundaries Commission will redraw some constituency boundaries using recent census and voter registration data to determine population shifts and, frankly, the favourable cuts for electoral success.

Notably, the FNM must also be concerned about its weakening presence in Grand Bahama which continues to suffer immense economic woes.

That said, I've decided to don my monk's garb and attempt to read the political tea leaves, making preliminary electoral projections relative to the political odds of the purported candidates contesting seats in the upcoming elections. One must be mindful that this preliminary tally--to be later followed up--comes as ratifications and candidate selection is ongoing and, moreover, boundaries have yet to be cut.

Mano-a-mano, for Dr Hubert Minnis (FNM) the electoral race against opponent Jerome Gomez (PLP) will be like running against a cupcake. Depending on how far Dr Minnis outruns him at the polls--and it seems that the gap will be wide--Mr Gomez may need a powerful telescope to even see his opponent.

The doctor has been a stellar MP and a smooth political salesman who actually delivers. His challenger is likely to be politically manhandled in a horrifying loss that will expose him--politically--as a paper tiger.

Annihilate

PLP MP Obie Wilchcombe will politically annihilate purported FNM candidate Jeff Butler. Wilchcombe, an oratorically-gifted Parliamentarian, has been a superb MP and is likely to jettison Mr Butler--a grocery store owner--to the political dustbin.

PLP candidate Dr Danny Johnson is likely to be shell-shocked and in denial after being KO'd by Desmond Bannister in the Carmichael constituency. It is anticipated that Dr Johnson--son of the late MP Oscar Johnson, brother of former House Speaker Italia Johnson and son-in-law of the late former PM Sir Lynden Pindling--will mobilize the PLP's campaign machinery/resources in the area. That said, Dr Johnson is likely to have recurring nightmares following this election episode.

Contrary to recent speculation, Mr Bannister is set to run in Carmichael again although reliable sources inform me that due to purported variations of the electoral map-- that would be an attempt to cut-out strong polling divisions to save the politically unpopular Charles Maynard's seat--he considered a run in his home town, North Andros.

The reality is that if Mr Bannister--a strong candidate--loses, for the FNM, the domino effect would probably afflict the entire Southwestern area. Mr Bannister's electoral outcome could potentially coincide with the outcome of neighbouring seats. That said, he's expected to at least win his seat.

Former MP Leslie "Potcake" Miller will politically clobber incumbent Sidney Collie in Blue Hills.

This race is set to be a carnivorous affair. Constituents assert that Mr Collie has been a resounding disappointment, malignantly neglecting his constituency and performing abysmally.

Any expectancy of Mr Collie winning his seat is comparable to waiting for VAT 19 (liquor) to turn 20!

Naturally, both parties concede certain seats--for e.g. Long Island (usually FNM) and Englerston (traditionally PLP)--offering second tier candidates who are considered to be sacrificial lambs who make up the party's frontline numbers.

That said, the race for the Long Island/Ragged Island yields an exploitable mismatch as incumbent Larry Cartwright faces off against PLP newcomer Alex Storr--son of businessman Henry F Storr. Unfortunately for him, in Long Island, Mr Storr will suffer a humiliating loss.

Branville McCartney, depending on his political decisions, could likely retain his Bamboo Town seat.

As an FNM, and perhaps even if Mr McCartney becomes an independent, he would be a strong and favoured contender. However, if he joins a new party, he will suffer a political death.

Currently, Mr McCartney is in a very critical position politically, however he must rid himself of any notion that its normal to be "half-pregnant"--that is, either he's with the FNM or he's not.

Will Mr McCartney's move happen during the BTC debate? Were his recent comments/actions a precursor to what his true intentions are, that is, to separate himself from the pack and portray himself as a man with the gumption to stand against Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham? Is his decision predicated upon the position he takes with the BTC debate? In the wake of the Prime Minister's recent remarks relative to a snap election if all FNM MPs do not support the BTC sale in Parliament, is the ground now loosening under Mr McCartney?

I've been informed that the Clifton constituency will no longer exist. Moreover, as a result of this constituency being eliminated, I'm told that incumbent MP Kendal Wright will be offered a nomination to contest the Golden Gates seat. I'm told that because Mr Wright was raised in the Sunshine Park area of the constituency, he should be a "natural fit" to challenge incumbent MP Shane Gibson. Frankly, barring any other happenings, Wright--who is an uninspiring candidate--will lose to Shane Gibson, who is a political powerhouse in the area and has a diehard support base.

The MICAL constituency is being divided into the Inagua and Mayaguana constituency and Acklins, Crooked Island and Long Cay, respectively.

FNM Senator Dion "The Bruiser" Foulkes is set to triumph over his challenger in the new Inagua and Mayaguana constituency.

Nomination

I was told that the likely forerunner for the FNM nomination in Acklins, Crooked Island and Long Cay was Johnley Ferguson. However, that appears to be a moot point now that Mr Ferguson has signed a two year contract as a consultant with the Department of Lands and Surveys. Incumbent Alfred Gray is likely to put a shellacking on his opponent.

South Andros MP Picewell Forbes will be wielding a big, electoral tamarind switch for FNM challenger and COB lecturer Zendal Forbes. Although Picewell Forbers may encounter some difficulties if former MP Whitney Bastian nominates as an independent candidate, he's expected to retain the seat with Mr Z Forbes coming a distant third as an "also-ran" candidate.

FNM insiders assert that Carl Bethel has worn-out his welcome in Sea Breeze. However, his uncertain political fortune is dependent upon the candidate that the PLP settles on running against Mr Bethel.

Of late, Hope Strachan--Bethel's strongest challenger--has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Fort Charlotte MP Alfred Sears who has announced that he will not seek re-election.

However, if Ms Strachan remains in Sea Breeze, Carl Bethel will suffer a shellacking.

In 2007, Ms Strachan lost by 60-plus votes after campaigning in the constituency for a mere six weeks.

Mr Bethel appears out of touch with the electorate and, unfortunately, has a massive risk factor concerning his candidacy--that is, the perception that he's arrogant and egotistical.

Moreover, another scenario discussed is the possible nomination of lawyer Myles Laroda in Sea Breeze, apparently the PLP's compromise for snubbing him in South Beach. Frankly, Laroda would be defeated by Bethel. The PLP's best chance of capturing that seat is to leave Hope Strachan as the nominee. No doubt, the PLP would be smart to smack down any inkling to move Ms Strachan to the other side of town.

The Fort Charlotte district--no longer being contested by PLP MP Alfred Sears--should be a political duel.

Sources assert that the boundaries will extend further into Dr Minnis' Killarney constituency to facilitate a successful run by FNM candidate Vincent Vanderpool Wallace.

I'm also informed that the recently departed former NDP leader (now PLP) Dr Andre Rollins is also vying for the nod in Fort Charlotte. There are those who argue that Dr Rollins--a political journeyman--lacks the political capital to win a contest. The race for Fort Charlotte could go either way.

Brent Symonette will retain the St Annes seat. Mr Symonette, who won nearly 64 per cent of the votes cast in his constituency in the last general election, will handily dispatch any challengers (said to be Billy Nottage or another applicant).

Loretta Butler-Turner will banish her challenger to the political wilderness and roar down victory lane in the Montagu constituency.

Mrs Butler-Turner won by a margin of more than 68 per cent of the total votes cast in her constituency during the last general election--the largest margin that year.

FNM nominee for St Cecilia Karen Shepherd--the former president of the Women's Association--will be a victim of circumstance. In a traditionally PLP stronghold, Ms Shepherd is a rookie politician whose candidacy reminds me of a wilting candle.

I'm informed that Ms Shepherd requested to run in St Cecilia since her father James Shepherd--a member of the Dissident Eight--once represented the area.

However, from the looks of things, Ms Shepherd could perhaps begin writing her biography, with it perhaps reading "I also ran in St Cecilia, etcetera" and being filled out during her lifetime.

Glenys Hanna-Martin has a strong political wind at her back in the Englerston constituency. The constituency is also a traditional PLP stronghold.

March 18, 2011

2012 General Election Predictions (Part 2) - Bahamas

tribune242

Bahamas Blog International

The threat of excessive public sector debt in The Bahamas...

The national debt

thenassauguardian editorial



Governments, international agencies, rating agencies and most businessmen regard the level of national debt to the size of the economy (GDP) as one of the most important economic indicators in assessing the current and future health of the economy.

The national debt consists of funds borrowed directly by the government plus any debt of the government corporations which have been guaranteed by the government.

Governments usually borrow funds when there is a need to undertake capital projects (office buildings, schools, roads, docks etc.) and the revenue from taxes is insufficient to cover the capital works.

The size of any economy determines the level of potential taxes that could be collected to meet government expenditure needs for, among other things, education, health, law enforcement, social welfare and of course, debt servicing of any loans taken out by the government.

Current and future living standards in any country are influenced by the amount of resources applied by governments, on a yearly basis, to education, health, national security, social welfare and other public sector areas.

In order to ensure that sufficient resources are available on a sustainable basis for those fundamental public sector functions, good fiscal management compels governments to restrain the growth in debt servicing to a level where it does not threaten to crowd-out and push aside the needs of the other important sectors of society.

In many third-world countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the public resources from tax revenues to finance public debt have exceeded the public resources allocations for education and health; a position considered by many as an undesirable path towards the lowering of living standards.

In an attempt to address poor policy choices by governments, international agencies such as the IMF (International Monetary Fund), World Bank and the IDB (Inter-American Development Bank) which provide economic advice on a global basis, urge governments to try and keep debt ratios (total national debt as a percentage of total national output or GDP) to a reasonable level.

In the case of developing countries such as The Bahamas, the level suggested is somewhere in the region of 40 percent.

Most countries, particularly those in the developing world, have fallen short of that objective.

Indeed, with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago at 26 percent, many developing countries are in the high 80s (Barbados) or, in some cases the ratio exceeded 100 percent, (Jamaica at 123 percent for example), while the European countries have set the debt to GDP ratio at 60 percent as the desired level for their community. Our nearest neighbor and largest trading partner, the United States, has a debt to GDP ratio that stands at an unusually high level of 97 percent.

When a country’s debt to GDP is high, it implies that the country is struggling and could have difficulty servicing its debt.

Currently The Bahamas’ ratio is in the high 50s and growing.

It is not yet in troublesome territory but given the trend over the past few years and the growing commitments to further borrowing, including the Chinese loans and the associated capital needs of the utility companies, there is surely some cause for some concern.

The policy makers and other interested parties would need to closely monitor the debt situation to ensure that the nation’s economy remains healthy and that our living standards are not threatened by excessive public sector debt.

3/18/2011

thenassauguardian editorial

Bahamas Blog International

Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham: I would not be late in calling the next general election

PM Laments Election Costs

By Macushla N. Pinder



If Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham had his way, he would reform the way general elections play out in The Bahamas.

This he said would include shaving down the amount of money spent on the process.

"In order to make elections less expensive, I’d like for political parties to all agree and to make illegal the giving away of t-shirts at election time. It’s a very expensive proposition. It drives up costs," Mr. Ingraham told reporters yesterday.

"In other parts of the world like Barbados, people come in and buy the party’s shirt. They pay their $5 and $10 for it. In The Bahamas, we give out thousands and thousands and it’s very expensive."

The prime minister’s comment came during his response to campaign finance reform, an issue that always arises when another general election draws near.

During the 2002 election season, the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) promised to address the matter, but nothing was ever made public in this regard.

The party at the time said, "The Constitution ought to provide that Parliament may prescribe by law for open and fairness in procedure for funding of parties at elections both local and national. There ought to be prescribed national limits on party political expenditure with appropriate penalties."

After the 2007 general election, former Prime Minister Perry Christie suggested that one of the reasons the Free National Movement won is because special interest groups and "hidden forces" heavily financed it.

But Prime Minister Ingraham yesterday told reporters he has no difficulty "whatsoever" disclosing the source of his funding.

He however pointed out that those countries that do have campaign finance laws have found them to be "very ineffective."

But places that do have campaign finance laws, they have found it to be very ineffective.

"What they spend on elections in the United States is unbelievable and they have campaign finance laws. You cannot legislate honesty. The dishonest would be dishonest no matter what you do," he said.

In addition to campaign finance laws, some Bahamians also believe that public debates heading into a general election should be a must.

Mr. Ingraham however disagrees.

"I think parties put forward their platforms and programmes and the public has the opportunity to choose," he said.

"There are debates that take place everyday. When we have the rally, we will have a debate. We will say what we have to say. The next side will say what they have to say. I don’t think one-off is going to help people help make their minds up one way or the other. I think we have a very effective system."

While keeping mum on when the next general election will take place, the prime minister assured Bahamians he would not be late in calling it.

"It will not be that my minister of immigration would be in Marsh Harbour, Abaco swearing in new citizens – Haitians, who were given citizenship – and they go next door to register to vote and the prime minister in Nassau announces that elections have been called," he said.

"I will not be doing that kind of foolishness."

March 17th, 2011

jonesbahamas

Bahamas Blog International

How can so-called responsible persons encourage the "criminally-minded" to create social unrest in our beloved Bahamas

'Political operatives' and the 'criminally-minded'
tribune242 editorial




POLICE Staff Association president Dwight Smith during an interview with the press after the February 23 demonstration on Bay Street urged politicians to stop politicising issues.

He was defending his Force from a politician's criticism of the worth of police reports, which were used in another case to decide the suitability of a person for a high office. Mr Smith was also smarting under the criticism of how "over prepared" police were when they arrived on Bay Street for the BTC demonstration. It would have been irresponsible - after a union leader had declared that a "small Egypt" was needed on Bay Street to protest the sale of BTC - if police had not come fully prepared -- with its canine unit and all. The unionist was accused of instigating social unrest, and so the police were ready.

Mr Smith pointed out that the type of persons he saw among the crowd that day made it necessary for the police to do their job to ensure the safety of protesters and observers. He said the police had difficulty with those participating in the protest who had "nothing to do with BTC," but were there "advancing political groups."

"We saw so many things that were going on. I, for one, wondered if we were dealing with a BTC situation or if we were dealing with a political situation. For the life of me I could not understand what was going on," Mr Smith told the press.

The demonstration was said to have been organised by the Committee to Save BTC, but PLP members made a strong appearance.

Mr Smith said downtown merchants called to complain about a group of young protesters who were dropped off in the George Street area. As they walked to the protest, merchants claimed they stopped in store after store "causing a disturbance."

"I walked there personally and saw them. I knew some of them and talked to them. I heard them say, if they did not get paid there is going to be problems. I had to encourage some of them to come out of the stores. They had no reason to go in the stores.

"They were just being disruptive," said Mr Smith.

"My view is there were only a handful of persons there who were really dealing with BTC. If you were to speak to some of those persons, they did not know why they were out there. They did not know what they were out there for. If we were to really do the due diligence, we'll find a lot of them did not understand what was going on," he said.

It was suggested that "political operatives" had paid many persons -- some if them referred to by the police as "criminally minded" -- to demonstrate on Bay Street. As the late Kendal Isaacs, QC, who refused his party's request to lead a demonstration, pointed out, he would have been responsible for any breach of the peace caused by the demonstrators. These "political operatives," and Rodney Moncur, who has called for 10,000 demonstrators, should reconsider the consequences. And to help them understand their responsibilities the police should enforce the law -- especially against persons who would have paid these demonstrators to create the disturbance.

How can so-called responsible persons encourage the "criminally-minded" to create social unrest and then demand that they obey the law when their services are no longer needed? We expect the police to protect residents against these very same people. However, when caught by the law they will look to their political paymasters to save them from prison.

Reminds us of the PLP election when drug dealers were desperate that the PLP be returned to power. Rightly or wrongly, true or false, there was the perception that this party was their guardian. The call was passed down the line -- especially in Eleuthera -- to get the fast boats ready. As soon as the PLP were elected the operators expected to be back in business. Some were so bold that they talked openly to our reporters, calling names of their political protectors.

We recall the talks that Magistrate Hercules and the late Sir Etienne Dupuch had many years ago when they took their morning constitutional on Cayman's Five Mile Beach. Magistrate Hercules, a tough, no nonsense magistrate, left the Bahamas after several years here. His complaint was about the political interference he had to suffer when certain "criminally-minded persons" appeared before him. It was more than he could take.

If we expect the police to be effective in controlling crime, then this culture of using persons on the wrong side of the law when it suits certain purposes, must end.

March 16, 2011

tribune242 editorial

Bahamas Blog International

We recommend that Rodney Moncur and Company forget about the "10,000 strong" demonstration against the sale of Bahamas Telecommunications Company (BTC)

Large or small -- paid demonstrations prove nothing
tribune242 editorial





THERE are those -- mainly BTC unionists and opposition politicians-- who maintain that the majority of Bahamians are against the sale of BTC to Cable and Wireless.

In today's Tribune Dr Elwood Donaldson, a former cabinet minister in the Pindling government, said his group believes that the majority of Bahamians agree that selling BTC is a bad idea. He claimed that such a sale would reverberate through history as the "greatest blunder" of any Bahamian government.

Rodney Moncur, another political activist, has called for 10,000 demonstrators to converge on Bay Street to object to the sale of the telecommunications company on the day that it is debated in parliament. He has urged the PLP to show its sincerity by delivering 6,000 supporters to join the march. So far in all the calls for demonstrators, these activists have been hard pressed to attract a crowd -- their largest showing has been about 500 persons. Police have confirmed hearing some among that 500, who are "well known" to them, complain that if they were not paid there was going to be problems.

Now that it has been revealed that certain "political activists" have paid persons to go to Bay Street to make up the numbers for the crowd scene, it no longer matters whether 500 or 10,000 of them show up. This does not answer the question of whether the majority of Bahamians are for or against the BTC sale. All it shows is that a goodly number of bodies on Bay Street are there for their promised $85 to push, shove and shout, and give the police a hard time. Already we hear squabbling among what the police have referred to as the "criminally-minded" complaining about not receiving money promised for their hour on Bay Street on February 23. It is claimed that the going price was supposed to be $85, but some only collected $40 or $50 for their paid-for "demonstration."

From talking to persons, one-on-one, and studying the various independent polls, we are left with the impression that the majority of Bahamians -- even among unionists -- are looking forward to efficient telecommunications service and lower rates. As several have said: "We can't wait for the day!" They approve the sale. These persons have been paid nothing for their opinion.

However, once a demonstration ceases to be spontaneous, demonstrators' numbers don't count -- they no longer represent accurate opinions -- in fact they represent no opinion. Now that it is known they are paid, their numbers impress no one, and the organisers are made to look foolish. It is just one big, noisy, bogus show. We hope that the organisers will be prepared to take full responsibility for whatever damage might be caused by what is certain to turn into a mob scene.

Paying persons to produce mob-scenes is nothing new. We remember one day early on in the first Ingraham administration, one of our press men asked to see us. By now he was a man past middle age, a reformed gang member, who on occasion still hung out with "the boys." The night before, he told us, Sir Lynden had been to visit the "boys", a demonstration was being organised for Bay Street and for a price he wanted help from the "boys."

We don't recall what the incident was about -- there were so many incidents in those days -- but the so-called protest took place. Having been tipped off by our staff member, we had reporters mingle among the crowd for interviews.

The demonstrators were asked why they were there and what the demonstration was all about. Not one of them knew.

This is the response that we get from most demonstrators -- either they don't know what the issues are, or they are highly inebriated and don't care about the issues, or their information is so garbled that they make themselves look foolish. It makes one wonder about democracy and the one-man-one-vote theory.

We agree with Sir Winston Churchill when he said:

"No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time."

We recommend that Mr Moncur - and whatever other political activists there are of like mind -- forget about the 10,000-strong demonstration. Their crowds will prove nothing. Among them will be the undesirables who will harass shop keepers, as they did on February 23 when police had to be called in to order them out. Among them, said one policeman, were persons "well known to us." All of us should know what that expression means in police jargon.

These organisers are playing Russian roulette when they have among their group such persons, who instead of being out on the streets should be awaiting their day in court behind bars.

March 15, 2011

tribune242 editorial

Bahamas Blog International

Chinese loans are cheap... and The Bahamas is borrowing... What's the catch?

The limitations of the Chinese love affair

thenassauguardian editorial




The Bahamas has fallen fully into the embrace of China. And the rising empire has been kind with its “gifts.”

The $2.6 billion Baha Mar project and the $70 million airport highway are being financed by China. Last week, the government announced that the China Harbour Engineering Company Ltd. will build the North Abaco Port and by-pass road; a bridge between Little and Great Abaco; a port and by-pass highway in Exuma; and the Eleuthera Glass Window Bridge and approaching embankments.

The airport highway money is a part of the $1 billion in loans set aside for the Caribbean by China. The Bahamas has been allocated $150 million of that amount.

Chinese loans are cheap. And The Bahamas is borrowing. What is tied to Chinese money in the developing world, however, is Chinese labor. When China lends or invests in poor countries, it sends lots of Chinese workers to construct the projects it finances.

For poor countries struggling to attract investment or to solicit financing, there is little resolve to make demands of the rising power.

Here in The Bahamas, Sarkis Izmirlian and Baha Mar needed financing. Baha Mar received that financing from China and it also received 8,150 foreign workers (who mostly will be Chinese).

The government borrowed cheap money from China for the airport highway and it received 200 Chinese workers. How many hundreds of Chinese will be forced on The Bahamas to build the Family Island ports and infrastructure upgrades announced last week?

What Bahamians must understand is that when China lends, and it contracts its workers to do the work, a significant amount of the money borrowed goes back to China with the workers who build the project. They pay their workers with money we borrow.

In addition, The Bahamas gets the bill for the loan. Over the years, the interest and principal payments also go to China.

The Chinese also keep their workers on self-contained on-site camps when they are sent abroad. We barely even get them to visit our stores to spend the money we borrowed when they are working in our countries.

The Bahamas should embrace Chinese investment. Without Baha Mar, our near future would look less bright. But The Bahamas must be careful regarding the relationship it develops with China regarding the labor issue.

We lose a significant chuck of the value of these investments when our uneducated laborers are denied work because Chinese get these jobs.

China brilliantly creates unequal trade relationships. China’s manipulated currency has helped it suck a significant portion of manufacturing from the West. It then loans the cash it has made back to countries such as the United States to buy more of its products.

China is now the second largest economy in the world and in the near future it will displace the United States as the world largest economy.

Much debate is needed among our policymakers about the Bahamian-Chinese embrace. We must find ways to continue to attract Chinese money that comes with fewer Chinese workers attached.

We think Chinese investment should be welcomed. We also think a reasonable number of Chinese workers should be accepted. However, China building most of our infrastructure projects and commercial projects almost solely with Chinese labor is not acceptable.

If China does not budge to the representations of a small place such as this, or a small region such as ours, we then have to do some analysis to determine if it is wise to borrow as much from China as opposed to other commercial lenders who do not set similar labor requirements. This issue is not simple.

Bahamians have thus far been okay with China’s involvement in The Bahamas. But as the numbers of Chinese coming to country get larger and larger with each announced project, the attitude towards China in The Bahamas will change. When a country has a double-digit unemployment level, its citizens get upset when foreigners get lots of jobs in their country.

Our political parties must be careful with this relationship. More concessions on the labor issue are needed from a China that does not like to compromise.

3/15/2011

thenassauguardian editorial

Bahamas Blog International