The next step for Branville McCartney
thenassauguardian editorial
Branville McCartney is no longer a member of the Free National Movement (FNM) and he will remain outside the FNM as long as Hubert Ingraham is in control of the party.
On the day Ingraham made his statement to the House of Assembly in the debate on the sale of 51 percent of the Bahamas Telecommunications Company (BTC), McCartney upstaged the prime minister and the governing party by resigning.
McCartney must now consider his steps carefully, or he will be remembered as someone who had potential.
His options are to run as an independent; to join the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP); to form a political party; to join a coalition of candidates; or to retire and leave politics.
Clearly McCartney wants to continue in politics, so retirement won’t happen.
If McCartney joined the PLP, he would be at the end of a long line of people who want to be leader after Perry Christie. Those men and women would let him know right away that he could not jump that line.
Running as an independent, forming a party or joining a coalition of independents all appear more likely options for the Bamboo Town MP.
If McCartney wants to form a party, he needs to get to work on that right away. He needs to find candidates and money. To run a serious campaign, McCartney would need millions. He would also need to find serious people to stand with him.
The problem small parties such as the Workers Party, the National Development Party and the Bahamas Democratic Party have is that they are not comprised of enough people capable of governing a country.
Standing as an independent, or with a group of independents, would be simpler. The key here would be for McCartney to try and win his seat, challenged by both the PLP and FNM. He should not assume that Christie and the PLP would cut a deal with him. The PLP needs every seat it can get in what looks like another close election.
McCartney has repeatedly said his move away from the Ingraham Cabinet and the Ingraham-led party was based on conscience. If he is to be an enduring force in Bahamian politics he must now prove to his constituency and the country that he has a vision for The Bahamas and that he has the intelligence and will to execute that vision.
So, the Bamboo Town MP needs to start talking. And he needs to talk often. His constituents and the country want to know if he has what it takes.
The national spotlight is now on “Bran.” We’ll shall all see if he can harness the mass dissatisfaction with the old political order, transforming that raw energy into results at the next general election.
3/22/2011
thenassauguardian editorial
A political blog about Bahamian politics in The Bahamas, Bahamian Politicans - and the entire Bahamas political lot. Bahamian Blogger Dennis Dames keeps you updated on the political news and views throughout the islands of The Bahamas without fear or favor. Bahamian Politicians and the Bahamian Political Arena: Updates one Post at a time on Bahamas Politics and Bahamas Politicans; and their local, regional and international policies and perspectives.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Economic nationalism and crony capitalism in The Bahamas
Lessons for BTC from Bahamas Airways
by Simon
A recent editorial cartoon of MPs bearing a coffin labelled Bahamianization was cute as a caricature but unconvincing as commentary. The cartoon represents a polar extreme from the left. From the right is another polar extreme claiming that Bahamianization has been tried and has failed.
As usual, the truer picture is somewhere in the middle beyond the hyperbole and casual analysis. Certainly, we are not where we want to be, but to deny various advances since independence, of which both extremes are prone, betrays many examples of progress despite the distance we have to travel.
All of which begs the question: What constitutes Bahamianization? Like all strands of nationalism, notions of Bahamianization are often driven by romanticism, ideological purity tests, prejudice and fear. At its most extreme, nationalism can explode into jingoism, xenophobia and racism.
At the heart of nationalism is a sense of identity and belonging to a place and may include political, social and economic nationalism. The highly emotive debate about the future of BTC has triggered various waves of economic nationalism which concern issues of opportunity, ownership and empowerment.
INSTRUCTIVE
But if the issues are about the greater empowerment of and opportunities for Bahamians, the BTC question is not as simplistic as the ardent nationalists suggest. The aviation industry offers an instructive case study in economic nationalism.
In 1968 Cathay Pacific Airways agreed to a partnership with the Bahamas Government in the development of Bahamas Airways as our national airline. The Hong Kong-based carrier was given exclusive rights to a number of important routes while providing the country with deep pockets and expertise in the airline industry, as well as an extensive international travel network.
Cathay Pacific (CP) invested heavily in the aircraft, marketing and training needed to develop routes between The Bahamas and tourist markets like New York and other cities. Once profitable, CP agreed to sell a 25 percent stake to the Bahamas Government at the initial share price of Bahamas Airways, which would have resulted in a windfall profit for the country.
The Bahamas would have had a national flag carrier able to compete with the big American carriers. Today we own 100 percent of a carrier that cannot compete. Is this Bahamian pride and nationalism? With crocodile tears about nationalism, Sir Lynden unilaterally and underhandedly broke the agreement with Cathay Pacific whom he himself courted and brought to The Bahamas.
Our national airline would have been integrated into the global aviation network decades before the more recent wave of globalization, providing guaranteed airlift for our tourist market, business passengers and cargo.
Imagine the possibilities of The Bahamas as a regional hub for Bahamas Airways/Cathay Pacific with direct flights to Latin America years ago, flying directly to many cities in the U.S., expanding our access to European capitals and better linking the country to the Pacific and China.
Sir Lynden and others defended his about-face by saying that Bahamians should fully own the routes Bahamas Airways had been granted. In the event, his waving the nationalist’s banner was a cover for crony capitalism as he awarded the routes to a crony who failed to get his airline off the ground.
SCANDAL
The result was the collapse of the arrangement with Cathay Pacific, a blow to the credibility of the government with investors and a big scandal for the country. The crony airline became known as “the paper airline” and became a laughing-stock.
Sir Lynden’s decision on Bahamas Airways was one of the pivotal issues which provoked increasing dissatisfaction with his leadership, eventually resulting in the break from the PLP of the Dissident Eight and others.
The founders of the FNM and other nationalists who remained in the Pindling government had to take tough and pragmatic decisions early on in the greater national interest of making the Bahamian dream more accessible and advancing the promises of majority rule.
They overwhelmingly and correctly concluded that to expand tourism and economic access and opportunities for Bahamians, and in order to grow the Bahamian economy to fund priorities such as education, that the Cathay Pacific partnership was an exceptional deal for The Bahamas.
Sir Lynden’s decision was tragic. In significant ways it set the country back decades. While it may be difficult to calculate the lost opportunities and economic benefits to the country and the Public Treasury, we know what Bahamasair has cost taxpayers -- now approaching half a billion dollars.
For point of reference, our total national debt today is approximately $4.2 billion dollars. Over the years Bahamasair constantly flew off course with poor service and incompetent management, various scandals and rip-offs, political interference and featherbedding of supporters, as well as wasteful spending.
Four decades after the Bahamas Airways debacle, the country owns 100 percent of a national airline that has been a significant failure in many respects. Is this more preferable than a 25 per cent stake in an airline that would have been more profitable, that would not have cost the Public Treasury the mind-boggling sums expended on Bahamasair, and would have guaranteed airlift into our prime tourism markets?
Then there are the opportunity costs of millions which could have been invested in education, health care, the arts, infrastructure and other areas. In all probability our national debt would also have been lower and our public finances healthier.
RATIONAL
Such rational cost-benefits analysis does not hold the emotional appeal of thumping our chests, waving the national colours and proclaiming that we are the majority owners of our national airline. Still, Bahamian pride must be more than nostalgia, unthinking nationalism and outdated economic thinking.
Surely we cannot fully know what the future of Bahamas Airways would have been amidst the turmoil that has roiled the airline industry over the decades from oil shocks to mergers to intense competition.
What we do know is that Cathay Pacific is still a healthy and competitive airline and that many of Bahamasair’s domestic routes are now in the hands of private fully Bahamian-owned companies that are profitable. The model Bahamas Airways could have followed is a concentration on international routes leaving domestic routes to local carriers with, in some instances, government subsidies to less profitable inter-island routes.
Suppose that in the 1980s The Bahamas was again offered a partnership with an international carrier to buy a majority stake in Bahamasair, with an agreement similar to the proposed BTC and Cable & Wireless partnership?
The agreement would have entailed the Government maintaining a significant though not majority stake, veto power over key decisions and significant board seats. The new partnership would leverage the resources of the well-established airline including extensive capital investments and other resources made available to Bahamasair that it could not access on its own.
The new partnership would also help to integrate the new Bahamasair into a global travel network of expanded routes with significantly better economies of scale in a more competitive global airline industry. Eventually, shares would be also sold to the Bahamian public
If this was the deal on the table, what would those who oppose the new partnership between BTC and Cable & Wireless, have thought and argued? Clearly, one could not plausibly argue that the national interest would have been better served by insisting on a 51 percent stake.
Undoubtedly the airline and telecommunications industries are different. Yet, there are parallels between the Bahamas Airways story and the proposed new partnership for BTC.
March 18, 2011
bahamapundit
by Simon
A recent editorial cartoon of MPs bearing a coffin labelled Bahamianization was cute as a caricature but unconvincing as commentary. The cartoon represents a polar extreme from the left. From the right is another polar extreme claiming that Bahamianization has been tried and has failed.
As usual, the truer picture is somewhere in the middle beyond the hyperbole and casual analysis. Certainly, we are not where we want to be, but to deny various advances since independence, of which both extremes are prone, betrays many examples of progress despite the distance we have to travel.
All of which begs the question: What constitutes Bahamianization? Like all strands of nationalism, notions of Bahamianization are often driven by romanticism, ideological purity tests, prejudice and fear. At its most extreme, nationalism can explode into jingoism, xenophobia and racism.
At the heart of nationalism is a sense of identity and belonging to a place and may include political, social and economic nationalism. The highly emotive debate about the future of BTC has triggered various waves of economic nationalism which concern issues of opportunity, ownership and empowerment.
INSTRUCTIVE
But if the issues are about the greater empowerment of and opportunities for Bahamians, the BTC question is not as simplistic as the ardent nationalists suggest. The aviation industry offers an instructive case study in economic nationalism.
In 1968 Cathay Pacific Airways agreed to a partnership with the Bahamas Government in the development of Bahamas Airways as our national airline. The Hong Kong-based carrier was given exclusive rights to a number of important routes while providing the country with deep pockets and expertise in the airline industry, as well as an extensive international travel network.
Cathay Pacific (CP) invested heavily in the aircraft, marketing and training needed to develop routes between The Bahamas and tourist markets like New York and other cities. Once profitable, CP agreed to sell a 25 percent stake to the Bahamas Government at the initial share price of Bahamas Airways, which would have resulted in a windfall profit for the country.
The Bahamas would have had a national flag carrier able to compete with the big American carriers. Today we own 100 percent of a carrier that cannot compete. Is this Bahamian pride and nationalism? With crocodile tears about nationalism, Sir Lynden unilaterally and underhandedly broke the agreement with Cathay Pacific whom he himself courted and brought to The Bahamas.
Our national airline would have been integrated into the global aviation network decades before the more recent wave of globalization, providing guaranteed airlift for our tourist market, business passengers and cargo.
Imagine the possibilities of The Bahamas as a regional hub for Bahamas Airways/Cathay Pacific with direct flights to Latin America years ago, flying directly to many cities in the U.S., expanding our access to European capitals and better linking the country to the Pacific and China.
Sir Lynden and others defended his about-face by saying that Bahamians should fully own the routes Bahamas Airways had been granted. In the event, his waving the nationalist’s banner was a cover for crony capitalism as he awarded the routes to a crony who failed to get his airline off the ground.
SCANDAL
The result was the collapse of the arrangement with Cathay Pacific, a blow to the credibility of the government with investors and a big scandal for the country. The crony airline became known as “the paper airline” and became a laughing-stock.
Sir Lynden’s decision on Bahamas Airways was one of the pivotal issues which provoked increasing dissatisfaction with his leadership, eventually resulting in the break from the PLP of the Dissident Eight and others.
The founders of the FNM and other nationalists who remained in the Pindling government had to take tough and pragmatic decisions early on in the greater national interest of making the Bahamian dream more accessible and advancing the promises of majority rule.
They overwhelmingly and correctly concluded that to expand tourism and economic access and opportunities for Bahamians, and in order to grow the Bahamian economy to fund priorities such as education, that the Cathay Pacific partnership was an exceptional deal for The Bahamas.
Sir Lynden’s decision was tragic. In significant ways it set the country back decades. While it may be difficult to calculate the lost opportunities and economic benefits to the country and the Public Treasury, we know what Bahamasair has cost taxpayers -- now approaching half a billion dollars.
For point of reference, our total national debt today is approximately $4.2 billion dollars. Over the years Bahamasair constantly flew off course with poor service and incompetent management, various scandals and rip-offs, political interference and featherbedding of supporters, as well as wasteful spending.
Four decades after the Bahamas Airways debacle, the country owns 100 percent of a national airline that has been a significant failure in many respects. Is this more preferable than a 25 per cent stake in an airline that would have been more profitable, that would not have cost the Public Treasury the mind-boggling sums expended on Bahamasair, and would have guaranteed airlift into our prime tourism markets?
Then there are the opportunity costs of millions which could have been invested in education, health care, the arts, infrastructure and other areas. In all probability our national debt would also have been lower and our public finances healthier.
RATIONAL
Such rational cost-benefits analysis does not hold the emotional appeal of thumping our chests, waving the national colours and proclaiming that we are the majority owners of our national airline. Still, Bahamian pride must be more than nostalgia, unthinking nationalism and outdated economic thinking.
Surely we cannot fully know what the future of Bahamas Airways would have been amidst the turmoil that has roiled the airline industry over the decades from oil shocks to mergers to intense competition.
What we do know is that Cathay Pacific is still a healthy and competitive airline and that many of Bahamasair’s domestic routes are now in the hands of private fully Bahamian-owned companies that are profitable. The model Bahamas Airways could have followed is a concentration on international routes leaving domestic routes to local carriers with, in some instances, government subsidies to less profitable inter-island routes.
Suppose that in the 1980s The Bahamas was again offered a partnership with an international carrier to buy a majority stake in Bahamasair, with an agreement similar to the proposed BTC and Cable & Wireless partnership?
The agreement would have entailed the Government maintaining a significant though not majority stake, veto power over key decisions and significant board seats. The new partnership would leverage the resources of the well-established airline including extensive capital investments and other resources made available to Bahamasair that it could not access on its own.
The new partnership would also help to integrate the new Bahamasair into a global travel network of expanded routes with significantly better economies of scale in a more competitive global airline industry. Eventually, shares would be also sold to the Bahamian public
If this was the deal on the table, what would those who oppose the new partnership between BTC and Cable & Wireless, have thought and argued? Clearly, one could not plausibly argue that the national interest would have been better served by insisting on a 51 percent stake.
Undoubtedly the airline and telecommunications industries are different. Yet, there are parallels between the Bahamas Airways story and the proposed new partnership for BTC.
March 18, 2011
bahamapundit
Monday, March 21, 2011
Branville McCartney - Member of Parliament for the Bamboo Town Constituency Resigns from the Governing Free National Movement (FNM) Party
Branville McCartney's facebook RESIGNATION NOTE: Due to personal convictions, today I have resigned from the Free National Movement. I remain your representative for the Bamboo Town Constituency and be assured that the level of true representation that you have become accustomed to will not change. I remain your humble employee. Bran.
Bamboo Town Branville McCartney on facebook
Monday March 21, 2011
Bamboo Town Branville McCartney on facebook
Monday March 21, 2011
The Bluewater Ventures Limited / Bahamas Telecommunications Company (BTC) Privatization deal that came close to reality
Bluewater Unveiled
By CANDIA DAMES
NG News Editor
candia@nasguard.com
A look at the BTC deal that almost was
The veil of secrecy surrounding the group that almost purchased 49 percent of the Bahamas Telecommunications Company (BTC) under the Christie administration is being lifted.
According to a closely guarded document obtained by National Review, Bluewater is a privately held entity, which does not have audited statements or disclose financial statements publicly.
“However, at signing or immediately prior to signing the [letter of intent] we are prepared to disclose relevant financial information and give the relevant assurances on Bluewater’s acquisition vehicle, including its financial capacity to complete the transaction,” the company said in 2006.
The response came as part of the due diligence exercise carried out by the Privatization Committee under the Christie administration, which subsequently recommended to the government that negotiations should proceed with Bluewater.
Members of that committee included the financial secretary, the legal advisor to the Ministry of Finance, BTC union officials, private sector members and telecommunications consultants.
As the government gets closer to closing a deal with Cable and Wireless Communications (CWC) to sell 51 percent of BTC, the Bluewater deal that almost came to be remains highly controversial.
Speaking at his party’s rally on Clifford Park Saturday night, Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham said if the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) had its way BTC would have been sold off to Bluewater, which “had no experience in telecommunications. The company wasn’t even traded on the stock market.”
Ingraham said, “We still aren’t exactly sure who had their hands in that Bluewater pot or who the real players were behind a deal that would have purchased BTC on credit…”
Details of the deal that almost came to be are likely to be discussed in greater details in the BTC privatization debate, which gets underway in the House of Assembly today.
Ingraham has already promised to have more to say about Bluewater and what the Christie administration had planned.
In 2006, the privatization committee posed a number of questions to Bluewater, which were answered in detailed form in a document to the committee dated September 13, 2006.
One revelation made in that document is that Bluewater was formed to invest in and manage companies in the telecom and media industries.
According to the document, there was no plan for any layoffs. Between 2006 and 2011, average salary at BTC was projected to rise from $43,332 to $48,780.
Bluewater said in 2006 it would negotiate contracts with the existing management team between signing the letter of intent and closing the transaction.
“We anticipate that as a part of their package executive management will receive equity participation in BTC,” Bluewater said.
“Bluewater also anticipates that all board members will receive industry standard board compensation packages.”
A PLAN FOR BTC
Bluewater outlined 25 key initiatives to target in the first two years of purchasing the BTC shares.
It committed to plugging revenue leakages; reducing discounts to prepaid vendors; reducing bad debt charges; charging for in-home wiring to recoup costs; tightening the pre-paid card distribution process; instituting a new sales incentive scheme; reducing fleet maintenance costs; reducing overtime expenses and reducing contract service costs by 20 percent.
The company said that in the first year of the BTC acquisition it expected $92.5 million to be spent in capital expenditure to focus on consumers and core networks.
Asked to provide the supporting details and data for Bluewater’s proposed debt to equity ratio and any plans for external financing, Bluewater said it “does not intend to leverage BTC, so the net debt to equity ratio does not change during our projections.”
It also said it expected “all free cash flow after capital expenditure to be dividended to shareholders. This excludes current cash on the balance sheet which will be left at the company for working capital purposes.”
Bluewater also advised that it expected the cost of management and consultant contracts to be covered by the employee costs and the consultant costs in the business plan.
“In addition, we anticipate setting aside 10 percent of the equity of BTC for employees,” said Bluewater in 2006.
Under current plans for BTC, which appear poised to go through, the government says it will, by the end of this year, sell nine percent or approximately $40 million of the shares in BTC to the Bahamian public.
Bluewater said in 2006 that it did not intend to transfer or sell any of BTC’s shares for three years or any longer period of time as agreed by the shareholders.
The Bluewater plan also called for an improvement of EBITDA margins from 26 percent in 2005 to 39 percent in 2008.
The company said the improvement in EBITDA would have been achieved through the streamlining of operations.
The 2006 document to the Privatization Committee added, “Bluewater also intends to offer better value to its customers through reductions in wireless and international long distance tariffs as laid out in our business plan.”
The company had planned to launch an IPTV offering in 2009.
This would have included more than 1,000 movies on-demand “available to watch exactly when you want”; interactive music channels; on-demand movies and TV that you can stop, rewind, pause or fast-forward.
IPTV revenues were projected to be more than $9 million by this year.
The deal that came close to reality also included a plan for improving telecommunication services on less developed Family Islands.
THE BLUEWATER PLAYERS
The Privatization Committee asked Bluewater to provide the propose management candidates for BTC.
Several board members were named.
One of them was Trinidad and Tobago native Roger Ames, who served as chairman and chief executive officer of Warner Music Group and president of Warner Music International between August 1999 and August 2004.
Carlos Espinal who in 2006 was CEO of TSTT, the national telephone company of Trinidad & Tobago, was named as another Bluewater executive.
Prior to joining TSTT in 2004, he spent eight years with Verizon as senior vice president international - Latin America.
During his time with Verizon, he worked as a turn-around specialist for Verizon’s Latin American and Caribbean businesses, Bluewater said.
John Gregg was listed in the document sent to the Privatization Committee as managing director of Bluewater. According to that 2006 document, he had 15 years of building companies in the media and telecom industry in Europe, the U.S. and Asia.
Another board member named was Andrew Sukawaty, who was named as the chairman and CEO of Inmarsat, which Bluewater said was the world leader in global satellite communications.
According to the document, Sukawaty served as president and CEO of Sprint PCS, one of America’s largest mobile phone providers. It said he grew Sprint from a start up to a company with 9.5 million subscribers and approximately $6.6 billion in revenue.
Bluewater also named several operational advisors, a finance team and a legal team.
The document said Bluewater’s principals intended to invest in BTC through a standalone Bahamian entity that would have been capitalized and controlled by Bluewater’s principals. It said Bluewater is an entity controlled by John Gregg.
DEFENDING THE DEAL
Today, Bluewater of course is a dead deal, but what the Christie administration had proposed continues to come up in the current privatization debate.
The Christie administration had agreed to sell a 49 percent stake in the national telecommunications provider for $260 million shortly before the May 2007 general election.
However, after the Free National Movement was returned to power, Ingraham vowed to review the deal, claiming that Christie and the former Cabinet were planning to sell BTC "on credit" and that Bluewater would enjoy too lengthy an exclusivity period as a monopoly in an industry that his administration was keen on liberalizing.
According to documents previously obtained by The Nassau Guardian, Bluewater had agreed to pay $220 million for BTC in cash at closing, $25 million at the end of the fifth year following closing and $15 million at the end of the sixth year.
Under the deal, Bluewater would have been granted mobile and landline licenses with five and six-year exclusive periods, respectively.
Speaking at a press conference at PLP headquarters on Farrington Road yesterday, Christie again defended the deal.
“By innuendos and suggestions he (Ingraham) started off immediately after he became prime minister to suggest that there was something crooked about our involvement in Bluewater,” Christie said.
“The Progressive Liberal Party structured an approach to privatization that relied on the integrity and leadership of the financial secretary (at the time) Mrs. Ruth Millar.
“To ensure that we were on safe grounds we placed the leaders of the management union of BTC and the workers, BCPOU (Bahamas Communications and Public Officers Union), as full members of the negotiating team.
“That team, including the union leaders, would come into Cabinet and brief Cabinet. We took a transparent and accountable approach to it.”
Referring to the prime minister, Christie said, “…If he really wants to look for something, tell the Bahamian people whether or not there are deals in this BTC sale to Cable and Wireless.
“That’s where he should be looking at. The Progressive Liberal Party lost the elections. We can explain the positions we took.”
3/21/2011
thenassauguardian
2012 General Election Predictions (Part 2) - The Bahamas
Election predictions - part 2
By ADRIAN GIBSON
ajbahama@hotmail.com
THE odds are stacked against Zhivargo Laing in Marco City in the next general election.
Frankly, the race in this constituency appears to be between two unpopular candidates. Mr Laing, who may yet again have to move to another constituency (similar to the constant relocation of former PLP MP Paul Adderley) is said to have worn-out his welcome in his constituency. Constituents have complained that Mr Laing is out of touch with public sentiment and have objected to being seen or addressed in a patronizing, condescending manner by any politician. Mr Laing's constituents have complained about an air of perceived arrogance and expressed an interest in having Mr Laing spend more time actually listening (genuinely) to their concerns. The Marco City MP is a banana peel away from slipping into the political abyss. PLP nominee Greg Moss (lawyer) is likely to defeat him.
Brensil Rolle, the Garden Hills MP, will likely defeat Dr Kendal Major. Mr Rolle is apparently quite popular on the ground and considering the population shifts in the constituency--due to the recent construction and sale of houses in newly constructed housing subdivisions--he may have the advantage in an electoral showdown.
Vincent Peet, the MP for North Andros has been relatively quiet of late. Mr Peet is likely to retain his seat.
Melanie Griffin will politically sucker punch FNM challenger Joshua Sears. I am told that the boundary cuts will favour Sears, extending Yamacraw further eastward into large chunks of Brent Symonette's St Annes' constituency. However, because there are also plans afoot to relocate Phenton Neymour to the Exuma constituency, Mr Sears' name has been bandied about as a likely replacement for Mr Neymour in South Beach.
Lacklustre
If Phenton Neymour contests the South Beach seat, his teeth "will be on edge" having tested the sour grapes of what's said to be an impending defeat. Mr Neymour lacks the political horsepower to recapture the seat, as many residents express displeasure with his lackluster representation.
However, if Mr Neymour runs in Exuma, he could possibly edge out incumbent PLP MP Anthony Moss. Mr Moss is said to be unpopular in the Exuma Cays and has rendered a performance that is purportedly the reason for much voter discontent. Black Point residents--the second largest polling division--claim to have not seen Mr Moss since the last general election. Noticeably, Mr Neymour has made frequent trips into the Exuma constituency of late. Even more, of late Mr Neymour has also dropped the moniker he used to describe his constituents in Parliament--"the kings and queens of South Beach"--giving one the impression that perhaps the underlying notion now is that the Royal family of South Beach are preparing to dismiss their servant.
That said, Neymour's entrance into the Exuma race will leave the constituency too close to call--for now.
Notably, if Joshua Sears contests the South Beach seat as the standard bearer for the FNM, he has a more favourable chance of defeating Nurses Union president Cleola Hamilton (PLP), who has already been described by some residents as "charmless."
The Fox Hill seat could go either way. I'm told that the boundary cuts will now incorporate a polling division--out of Montagu and near to Step Street--in hopes of assisting challenger Dr Jacintha Higgs (a lady who wears the most enrapturing outfits) in gaining a foothold on the constituency and rendering current MP Fred Mitchell a seatless wonder. By all accounts, Mr Mitchell has been a visible, working MP, thereby leaving his opponent with a long, tough journey to the polls. My electoral crystal ball could not yet reveal a likely winner in this contest.
Kenyatta Gibson, the bombastic-talking MP for Kennedy, is abandoning the constituency and running as the FNM's candidate in South Eleuthera. Although incumbent MP Oswald Ingraham is in his 70s, he could still vie for the seat or be replaced by one of eight applicants for the PLP nomination--a list that I am told includes local government chief councilor Hank Johnson.
Although Mr Gibson and his family purportedly have roots in the constituency, it is likely that he will be sent deeper into political oblivion following the next election. It appears that Mr Gibson walked the Parliamentary floor and will now be walking out of Parliament altogether!
Tommy Turnquest holds a slight edge over Arnold Forbes in the race for Mount Moriah. Although the Bahamas remains in a state of national "un-security", Mr Forbes' campaign may become anemic and lose traction due to reported business-related issues emanating from Canada.
Comeback
Bain and Grants Town is likely to remain in the PLP column, as Dr Bernard Nottage is expected to take out whoever the FNM nominee will be. At this juncture, party insiders inform me that the former area MP Gregory Williams is vying for the nomination in an attempt to make a political comeback; also reportedly seeking the nod is former candidate David Jordine and Rev CB Moss, who is said to be in talks with the FNM. Of course, Bain and Grants Town is a traditionally PLP seat.
PLP leader Perry Christie will most certainly humiliate his challenger in the Farm Road constituency.
The race for the Marathon constituency is setting up to be a slugfest. Of late, newcomer Jerome Fitzgerald has amped up his courtship of constituents by purchasing alarm systems and having them installed in their homes. Whilst incumbent Dr Earl Deveaux certainly has the upper hand, having spoken to constituents and political insiders from both of the major parties, I've concluded that the Marathon brawl is too close to call at this time.
The contest for North Eleuthera constituency--given the decision of House Speaker Alvin Smith not to stand for re-election--should be an exciting race to watch. Purported FNM candidate Theo Neilly--an airport manager and local government chief councilor--is slated to run against Spanish Wells native and fellow local government councilor Clay Sweeting. However, for the FNM, lawyer Richard Lightbourne's name has also been mentioned as a possible nominee. Here again, it's too far out to call this race, particularly since--at least on the national scene--both candidates are political neophytes. However, I am told that the contest for North Eleuthera is expected to be a costly affair, with lots of money changing hands.
The voters of Golden Isles will rebuke MP Charles Maynard in a runoff where challenger Michael Halkitis is expected to beat the incumbent MP like a piñata. A walloping could leave Mr Maynard having fits of post-election hysteria and, like the movie Sleepless in Seattle, he'll likely be Sleepless in Golden Isles.
During his term in office, Mr Maynard has struck me as a representative/minister who--unlike the movie--politically has no true grit.
With Kenyatta Gibson speedily running away to Eleuthera, the Kennedy seat will easily remain a PLP stronghold with newcomer Dion Smith trouncing all challengers.
PLP Deputy Leader and MP for Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador Philip "Brave" Davis will put a spanking on FNM challenger George Wilson. In the past, Mr Wilson unsuccessfully ran as an independent candidate in the same constituency.
There is also another angle that must be explored relative to Mr Davis' political future as he has been speculated as having an interest in relocating to the St Cecilia seat. PLP insiders inform me that if Mr Davis runs in St Cecilia, the party is likely to send former Police Commissioner BK Bonamy to vie for the Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador seat.
There is chatter that Verna Grant, FNM MP for Eight Mile Rock, is facing some serious opposition. Purportedly, Ms Grant is attempting to retain her nomination as former Senator Kay Forbes is said to be interested in displacing Ms Grant and running for the FNM in that seat. In what some say will be a tumultuous election season for her, Ms Grant is also expected to face vigorous challenges from potential PLP nominees such as Sandra Edgecombe (former principal at Eight Mile Rock High), Caleb Outten or a yet unnamed opponent. This time around, it appears that the polls could go either way.
High Rock MP Kenneth Russell (FNM) will rout the still unnamed PLP challenger in this largely FNM borough.
Lucaya MP Neko Grant will torpedo the electoral hopes of supposed PLP nominee Dr Lea Percentie.
The Pineridge seat is being contested by two five-star candidates. It is unfortunate that one of these men will have to politically cancel out the other.
Current MP Kwasi Thompson has been an outstanding representative, whilst challenger PLP Senator Dr Michael Darville--who has a medical practice in the constituency--also earned much praise from residents.
Frankly, the PLP should have nominated Dr Darville in the Marco City constituency, as he is not overwhelmingly favoured to beat Mr Thompson as opposed to the outright favourable rating in a race against Zhivargo Laing. That said, Dr Darville is a formidable candidate and, whilst Mr Thompson holds a slight edge at this time, the quality of the candidates vying for the voters support in this race could cause the pendulum to swing either way. This race will certainly be a nail biter, i.e. if Dr Darville is not transplanted to contest the Marco City seat.
PLP incumbent Frank Smith will face-off against likely FNM challenger Linda Treco in the St Thomas More constituency. By all accounts, Mr Smith has earned the ire of the Prime Minister, so it is expected that the full weight of the FNM's electoral machinery will be coming down upon him.
Reliable sources inform me that upcoming boundary cuts will place a portion of St Thomas More in Loretta Butler-Turner's Montagu constituency, arguing that because she won by more than 1000 votes in the last election, she can likely absorb some votes against her and still preserve a comfortable margin in another victorious run. Apparently, a portion of Fox Hill will likewise be absorbed into Brent Symonette's St Anne's constituency. I'm also told that Paradise Island will become a part of the new St Thomas More constituency.
Creditable
Pinewood, a PLP foothold, could once again return to the party's win column. Frankly, MP Byron Woodside has done a creditable job in the constituency. However, a loss may, among other factors, be due to changes within the voting block and the luck of the political draw as the constituency has had an extensive love affair with the PLP. The race for Pinewood will no doubt be close and quite competitive.
According to sources, the PLP intend to run attorney Damian Gomez in Pinewood.
Flip a coin and, quite similarly, the Elizabeth constituency can go either way although incumbent Ryan Pinder (PLP) is favoured--at this juncture--to retain his seat. That said, I've been clued-up by FNM insiders of the likely mapping out of a favourable boundary cut for challenger Dr Duane Sands--a cut which is set to incorporate "more FNM polling divisions" and cut-out a part of Elizabeth Estates.
Edison Key will retain his South Abaco seat.
Prime Minister and FNM leader Hubert Ingraham will crush all challengers--whether that is Ky Mills and/or Jackson McIntosh--in the race for the North Abaco seat. Frankly, the electoral hopes of Mr Ingraham's challengers are comparable to running in quick sand--struggling and sinking fast!
As we enter another general election season, Bahamians must begin to demand true and visionary leadership within their constituencies and on the national front.
The upcoming general election will certainly--as is seen every five years--be a political circus. Indeed, this will be a helluva election season, which will leave--upon its conclusion--more than a handful of sitting MPs and electoral hopefuls reaching for a crying towel.
March 19, 2011
2012 General Election Predictions (Part 1) - Bahamas
tribune242
2012 General Election Predictions - Bahamas
Election predictions - part 1
By ADRIAN GIBSON
ajbahama@hotmail.com
AS ELECTION draweth nigh, it is anticipated that drama will surely accompany the impending showdown. Indeed, as ham/turkey/dryer/washer season rolls around once more, I'm hopeful that a more edified electorate will reject political paternalism and demand change--demand that the substantive societal/national issues are addressed.
Thus far, whilst the FNM party seems slow-footed in announcing its slate of candidates, the electioneering has clearly begun as is evident by Opposition Leader Perry Christie and his Deputy's (Philip Davis) flurry of Family Island trips conducting what they refer to as a listening tour.
Frankly, as the electoral clock ticks away, there are a few sitting Members of Parliament who have virtually fallen off a cliff and have literally disappeared in their constituencies whilst others are visionless and/or have adopted an attitude of entitlement and intolerance. Undoubtedly, there will be fits of hysteria and much whimpering following this electoral cycle. There are quite a number of politicians who are said to be on the endangered species list--marching onward toward the political gallows.
It is expected that the newly-constituted Boundaries Commission will redraw some constituency boundaries using recent census and voter registration data to determine population shifts and, frankly, the favourable cuts for electoral success.
Notably, the FNM must also be concerned about its weakening presence in Grand Bahama which continues to suffer immense economic woes.
That said, I've decided to don my monk's garb and attempt to read the political tea leaves, making preliminary electoral projections relative to the political odds of the purported candidates contesting seats in the upcoming elections. One must be mindful that this preliminary tally--to be later followed up--comes as ratifications and candidate selection is ongoing and, moreover, boundaries have yet to be cut.
Mano-a-mano, for Dr Hubert Minnis (FNM) the electoral race against opponent Jerome Gomez (PLP) will be like running against a cupcake. Depending on how far Dr Minnis outruns him at the polls--and it seems that the gap will be wide--Mr Gomez may need a powerful telescope to even see his opponent.
The doctor has been a stellar MP and a smooth political salesman who actually delivers. His challenger is likely to be politically manhandled in a horrifying loss that will expose him--politically--as a paper tiger.
Annihilate
PLP MP Obie Wilchcombe will politically annihilate purported FNM candidate Jeff Butler. Wilchcombe, an oratorically-gifted Parliamentarian, has been a superb MP and is likely to jettison Mr Butler--a grocery store owner--to the political dustbin.
PLP candidate Dr Danny Johnson is likely to be shell-shocked and in denial after being KO'd by Desmond Bannister in the Carmichael constituency. It is anticipated that Dr Johnson--son of the late MP Oscar Johnson, brother of former House Speaker Italia Johnson and son-in-law of the late former PM Sir Lynden Pindling--will mobilize the PLP's campaign machinery/resources in the area. That said, Dr Johnson is likely to have recurring nightmares following this election episode.
Contrary to recent speculation, Mr Bannister is set to run in Carmichael again although reliable sources inform me that due to purported variations of the electoral map-- that would be an attempt to cut-out strong polling divisions to save the politically unpopular Charles Maynard's seat--he considered a run in his home town, North Andros.
The reality is that if Mr Bannister--a strong candidate--loses, for the FNM, the domino effect would probably afflict the entire Southwestern area. Mr Bannister's electoral outcome could potentially coincide with the outcome of neighbouring seats. That said, he's expected to at least win his seat.
Former MP Leslie "Potcake" Miller will politically clobber incumbent Sidney Collie in Blue Hills.
This race is set to be a carnivorous affair. Constituents assert that Mr Collie has been a resounding disappointment, malignantly neglecting his constituency and performing abysmally.
Any expectancy of Mr Collie winning his seat is comparable to waiting for VAT 19 (liquor) to turn 20!
Naturally, both parties concede certain seats--for e.g. Long Island (usually FNM) and Englerston (traditionally PLP)--offering second tier candidates who are considered to be sacrificial lambs who make up the party's frontline numbers.
That said, the race for the Long Island/Ragged Island yields an exploitable mismatch as incumbent Larry Cartwright faces off against PLP newcomer Alex Storr--son of businessman Henry F Storr. Unfortunately for him, in Long Island, Mr Storr will suffer a humiliating loss.
Branville McCartney, depending on his political decisions, could likely retain his Bamboo Town seat.
As an FNM, and perhaps even if Mr McCartney becomes an independent, he would be a strong and favoured contender. However, if he joins a new party, he will suffer a political death.
Currently, Mr McCartney is in a very critical position politically, however he must rid himself of any notion that its normal to be "half-pregnant"--that is, either he's with the FNM or he's not.
Will Mr McCartney's move happen during the BTC debate? Were his recent comments/actions a precursor to what his true intentions are, that is, to separate himself from the pack and portray himself as a man with the gumption to stand against Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham? Is his decision predicated upon the position he takes with the BTC debate? In the wake of the Prime Minister's recent remarks relative to a snap election if all FNM MPs do not support the BTC sale in Parliament, is the ground now loosening under Mr McCartney?
I've been informed that the Clifton constituency will no longer exist. Moreover, as a result of this constituency being eliminated, I'm told that incumbent MP Kendal Wright will be offered a nomination to contest the Golden Gates seat. I'm told that because Mr Wright was raised in the Sunshine Park area of the constituency, he should be a "natural fit" to challenge incumbent MP Shane Gibson. Frankly, barring any other happenings, Wright--who is an uninspiring candidate--will lose to Shane Gibson, who is a political powerhouse in the area and has a diehard support base.
The MICAL constituency is being divided into the Inagua and Mayaguana constituency and Acklins, Crooked Island and Long Cay, respectively.
FNM Senator Dion "The Bruiser" Foulkes is set to triumph over his challenger in the new Inagua and Mayaguana constituency.
Nomination
I was told that the likely forerunner for the FNM nomination in Acklins, Crooked Island and Long Cay was Johnley Ferguson. However, that appears to be a moot point now that Mr Ferguson has signed a two year contract as a consultant with the Department of Lands and Surveys. Incumbent Alfred Gray is likely to put a shellacking on his opponent.
South Andros MP Picewell Forbes will be wielding a big, electoral tamarind switch for FNM challenger and COB lecturer Zendal Forbes. Although Picewell Forbers may encounter some difficulties if former MP Whitney Bastian nominates as an independent candidate, he's expected to retain the seat with Mr Z Forbes coming a distant third as an "also-ran" candidate.
FNM insiders assert that Carl Bethel has worn-out his welcome in Sea Breeze. However, his uncertain political fortune is dependent upon the candidate that the PLP settles on running against Mr Bethel.
Of late, Hope Strachan--Bethel's strongest challenger--has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Fort Charlotte MP Alfred Sears who has announced that he will not seek re-election.
However, if Ms Strachan remains in Sea Breeze, Carl Bethel will suffer a shellacking.
In 2007, Ms Strachan lost by 60-plus votes after campaigning in the constituency for a mere six weeks.
Mr Bethel appears out of touch with the electorate and, unfortunately, has a massive risk factor concerning his candidacy--that is, the perception that he's arrogant and egotistical.
Moreover, another scenario discussed is the possible nomination of lawyer Myles Laroda in Sea Breeze, apparently the PLP's compromise for snubbing him in South Beach. Frankly, Laroda would be defeated by Bethel. The PLP's best chance of capturing that seat is to leave Hope Strachan as the nominee. No doubt, the PLP would be smart to smack down any inkling to move Ms Strachan to the other side of town.
The Fort Charlotte district--no longer being contested by PLP MP Alfred Sears--should be a political duel.
Sources assert that the boundaries will extend further into Dr Minnis' Killarney constituency to facilitate a successful run by FNM candidate Vincent Vanderpool Wallace.
I'm also informed that the recently departed former NDP leader (now PLP) Dr Andre Rollins is also vying for the nod in Fort Charlotte. There are those who argue that Dr Rollins--a political journeyman--lacks the political capital to win a contest. The race for Fort Charlotte could go either way.
Brent Symonette will retain the St Annes seat. Mr Symonette, who won nearly 64 per cent of the votes cast in his constituency in the last general election, will handily dispatch any challengers (said to be Billy Nottage or another applicant).
Loretta Butler-Turner will banish her challenger to the political wilderness and roar down victory lane in the Montagu constituency.
Mrs Butler-Turner won by a margin of more than 68 per cent of the total votes cast in her constituency during the last general election--the largest margin that year.
FNM nominee for St Cecilia Karen Shepherd--the former president of the Women's Association--will be a victim of circumstance. In a traditionally PLP stronghold, Ms Shepherd is a rookie politician whose candidacy reminds me of a wilting candle.
I'm informed that Ms Shepherd requested to run in St Cecilia since her father James Shepherd--a member of the Dissident Eight--once represented the area.
However, from the looks of things, Ms Shepherd could perhaps begin writing her biography, with it perhaps reading "I also ran in St Cecilia, etcetera" and being filled out during her lifetime.
Glenys Hanna-Martin has a strong political wind at her back in the Englerston constituency. The constituency is also a traditional PLP stronghold.
March 18, 2011
2012 General Election Predictions (Part 2) - Bahamas
tribune242
By ADRIAN GIBSON
ajbahama@hotmail.com
AS ELECTION draweth nigh, it is anticipated that drama will surely accompany the impending showdown. Indeed, as ham/turkey/dryer/washer season rolls around once more, I'm hopeful that a more edified electorate will reject political paternalism and demand change--demand that the substantive societal/national issues are addressed.
Thus far, whilst the FNM party seems slow-footed in announcing its slate of candidates, the electioneering has clearly begun as is evident by Opposition Leader Perry Christie and his Deputy's (Philip Davis) flurry of Family Island trips conducting what they refer to as a listening tour.
Frankly, as the electoral clock ticks away, there are a few sitting Members of Parliament who have virtually fallen off a cliff and have literally disappeared in their constituencies whilst others are visionless and/or have adopted an attitude of entitlement and intolerance. Undoubtedly, there will be fits of hysteria and much whimpering following this electoral cycle. There are quite a number of politicians who are said to be on the endangered species list--marching onward toward the political gallows.
It is expected that the newly-constituted Boundaries Commission will redraw some constituency boundaries using recent census and voter registration data to determine population shifts and, frankly, the favourable cuts for electoral success.
Notably, the FNM must also be concerned about its weakening presence in Grand Bahama which continues to suffer immense economic woes.
That said, I've decided to don my monk's garb and attempt to read the political tea leaves, making preliminary electoral projections relative to the political odds of the purported candidates contesting seats in the upcoming elections. One must be mindful that this preliminary tally--to be later followed up--comes as ratifications and candidate selection is ongoing and, moreover, boundaries have yet to be cut.
Mano-a-mano, for Dr Hubert Minnis (FNM) the electoral race against opponent Jerome Gomez (PLP) will be like running against a cupcake. Depending on how far Dr Minnis outruns him at the polls--and it seems that the gap will be wide--Mr Gomez may need a powerful telescope to even see his opponent.
The doctor has been a stellar MP and a smooth political salesman who actually delivers. His challenger is likely to be politically manhandled in a horrifying loss that will expose him--politically--as a paper tiger.
Annihilate
PLP MP Obie Wilchcombe will politically annihilate purported FNM candidate Jeff Butler. Wilchcombe, an oratorically-gifted Parliamentarian, has been a superb MP and is likely to jettison Mr Butler--a grocery store owner--to the political dustbin.
PLP candidate Dr Danny Johnson is likely to be shell-shocked and in denial after being KO'd by Desmond Bannister in the Carmichael constituency. It is anticipated that Dr Johnson--son of the late MP Oscar Johnson, brother of former House Speaker Italia Johnson and son-in-law of the late former PM Sir Lynden Pindling--will mobilize the PLP's campaign machinery/resources in the area. That said, Dr Johnson is likely to have recurring nightmares following this election episode.
Contrary to recent speculation, Mr Bannister is set to run in Carmichael again although reliable sources inform me that due to purported variations of the electoral map-- that would be an attempt to cut-out strong polling divisions to save the politically unpopular Charles Maynard's seat--he considered a run in his home town, North Andros.
The reality is that if Mr Bannister--a strong candidate--loses, for the FNM, the domino effect would probably afflict the entire Southwestern area. Mr Bannister's electoral outcome could potentially coincide with the outcome of neighbouring seats. That said, he's expected to at least win his seat.
Former MP Leslie "Potcake" Miller will politically clobber incumbent Sidney Collie in Blue Hills.
This race is set to be a carnivorous affair. Constituents assert that Mr Collie has been a resounding disappointment, malignantly neglecting his constituency and performing abysmally.
Any expectancy of Mr Collie winning his seat is comparable to waiting for VAT 19 (liquor) to turn 20!
Naturally, both parties concede certain seats--for e.g. Long Island (usually FNM) and Englerston (traditionally PLP)--offering second tier candidates who are considered to be sacrificial lambs who make up the party's frontline numbers.
That said, the race for the Long Island/Ragged Island yields an exploitable mismatch as incumbent Larry Cartwright faces off against PLP newcomer Alex Storr--son of businessman Henry F Storr. Unfortunately for him, in Long Island, Mr Storr will suffer a humiliating loss.
Branville McCartney, depending on his political decisions, could likely retain his Bamboo Town seat.
As an FNM, and perhaps even if Mr McCartney becomes an independent, he would be a strong and favoured contender. However, if he joins a new party, he will suffer a political death.
Currently, Mr McCartney is in a very critical position politically, however he must rid himself of any notion that its normal to be "half-pregnant"--that is, either he's with the FNM or he's not.
Will Mr McCartney's move happen during the BTC debate? Were his recent comments/actions a precursor to what his true intentions are, that is, to separate himself from the pack and portray himself as a man with the gumption to stand against Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham? Is his decision predicated upon the position he takes with the BTC debate? In the wake of the Prime Minister's recent remarks relative to a snap election if all FNM MPs do not support the BTC sale in Parliament, is the ground now loosening under Mr McCartney?
I've been informed that the Clifton constituency will no longer exist. Moreover, as a result of this constituency being eliminated, I'm told that incumbent MP Kendal Wright will be offered a nomination to contest the Golden Gates seat. I'm told that because Mr Wright was raised in the Sunshine Park area of the constituency, he should be a "natural fit" to challenge incumbent MP Shane Gibson. Frankly, barring any other happenings, Wright--who is an uninspiring candidate--will lose to Shane Gibson, who is a political powerhouse in the area and has a diehard support base.
The MICAL constituency is being divided into the Inagua and Mayaguana constituency and Acklins, Crooked Island and Long Cay, respectively.
FNM Senator Dion "The Bruiser" Foulkes is set to triumph over his challenger in the new Inagua and Mayaguana constituency.
Nomination
I was told that the likely forerunner for the FNM nomination in Acklins, Crooked Island and Long Cay was Johnley Ferguson. However, that appears to be a moot point now that Mr Ferguson has signed a two year contract as a consultant with the Department of Lands and Surveys. Incumbent Alfred Gray is likely to put a shellacking on his opponent.
South Andros MP Picewell Forbes will be wielding a big, electoral tamarind switch for FNM challenger and COB lecturer Zendal Forbes. Although Picewell Forbers may encounter some difficulties if former MP Whitney Bastian nominates as an independent candidate, he's expected to retain the seat with Mr Z Forbes coming a distant third as an "also-ran" candidate.
FNM insiders assert that Carl Bethel has worn-out his welcome in Sea Breeze. However, his uncertain political fortune is dependent upon the candidate that the PLP settles on running against Mr Bethel.
Of late, Hope Strachan--Bethel's strongest challenger--has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Fort Charlotte MP Alfred Sears who has announced that he will not seek re-election.
However, if Ms Strachan remains in Sea Breeze, Carl Bethel will suffer a shellacking.
In 2007, Ms Strachan lost by 60-plus votes after campaigning in the constituency for a mere six weeks.
Mr Bethel appears out of touch with the electorate and, unfortunately, has a massive risk factor concerning his candidacy--that is, the perception that he's arrogant and egotistical.
Moreover, another scenario discussed is the possible nomination of lawyer Myles Laroda in Sea Breeze, apparently the PLP's compromise for snubbing him in South Beach. Frankly, Laroda would be defeated by Bethel. The PLP's best chance of capturing that seat is to leave Hope Strachan as the nominee. No doubt, the PLP would be smart to smack down any inkling to move Ms Strachan to the other side of town.
The Fort Charlotte district--no longer being contested by PLP MP Alfred Sears--should be a political duel.
Sources assert that the boundaries will extend further into Dr Minnis' Killarney constituency to facilitate a successful run by FNM candidate Vincent Vanderpool Wallace.
I'm also informed that the recently departed former NDP leader (now PLP) Dr Andre Rollins is also vying for the nod in Fort Charlotte. There are those who argue that Dr Rollins--a political journeyman--lacks the political capital to win a contest. The race for Fort Charlotte could go either way.
Brent Symonette will retain the St Annes seat. Mr Symonette, who won nearly 64 per cent of the votes cast in his constituency in the last general election, will handily dispatch any challengers (said to be Billy Nottage or another applicant).
Loretta Butler-Turner will banish her challenger to the political wilderness and roar down victory lane in the Montagu constituency.
Mrs Butler-Turner won by a margin of more than 68 per cent of the total votes cast in her constituency during the last general election--the largest margin that year.
FNM nominee for St Cecilia Karen Shepherd--the former president of the Women's Association--will be a victim of circumstance. In a traditionally PLP stronghold, Ms Shepherd is a rookie politician whose candidacy reminds me of a wilting candle.
I'm informed that Ms Shepherd requested to run in St Cecilia since her father James Shepherd--a member of the Dissident Eight--once represented the area.
However, from the looks of things, Ms Shepherd could perhaps begin writing her biography, with it perhaps reading "I also ran in St Cecilia, etcetera" and being filled out during her lifetime.
Glenys Hanna-Martin has a strong political wind at her back in the Englerston constituency. The constituency is also a traditional PLP stronghold.
March 18, 2011
2012 General Election Predictions (Part 2) - Bahamas
tribune242
Sunday, March 20, 2011
The threat of excessive public sector debt in The Bahamas...
The national debt
thenassauguardian editorial
Governments, international agencies, rating agencies and most businessmen regard the level of national debt to the size of the economy (GDP) as one of the most important economic indicators in assessing the current and future health of the economy.
The national debt consists of funds borrowed directly by the government plus any debt of the government corporations which have been guaranteed by the government.
Governments usually borrow funds when there is a need to undertake capital projects (office buildings, schools, roads, docks etc.) and the revenue from taxes is insufficient to cover the capital works.
The size of any economy determines the level of potential taxes that could be collected to meet government expenditure needs for, among other things, education, health, law enforcement, social welfare and of course, debt servicing of any loans taken out by the government.
Current and future living standards in any country are influenced by the amount of resources applied by governments, on a yearly basis, to education, health, national security, social welfare and other public sector areas.
In order to ensure that sufficient resources are available on a sustainable basis for those fundamental public sector functions, good fiscal management compels governments to restrain the growth in debt servicing to a level where it does not threaten to crowd-out and push aside the needs of the other important sectors of society.
In many third-world countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the public resources from tax revenues to finance public debt have exceeded the public resources allocations for education and health; a position considered by many as an undesirable path towards the lowering of living standards.
In an attempt to address poor policy choices by governments, international agencies such as the IMF (International Monetary Fund), World Bank and the IDB (Inter-American Development Bank) which provide economic advice on a global basis, urge governments to try and keep debt ratios (total national debt as a percentage of total national output or GDP) to a reasonable level.
In the case of developing countries such as The Bahamas, the level suggested is somewhere in the region of 40 percent.
Most countries, particularly those in the developing world, have fallen short of that objective.
Indeed, with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago at 26 percent, many developing countries are in the high 80s (Barbados) or, in some cases the ratio exceeded 100 percent, (Jamaica at 123 percent for example), while the European countries have set the debt to GDP ratio at 60 percent as the desired level for their community. Our nearest neighbor and largest trading partner, the United States, has a debt to GDP ratio that stands at an unusually high level of 97 percent.
When a country’s debt to GDP is high, it implies that the country is struggling and could have difficulty servicing its debt.
Currently The Bahamas’ ratio is in the high 50s and growing.
It is not yet in troublesome territory but given the trend over the past few years and the growing commitments to further borrowing, including the Chinese loans and the associated capital needs of the utility companies, there is surely some cause for some concern.
The policy makers and other interested parties would need to closely monitor the debt situation to ensure that the nation’s economy remains healthy and that our living standards are not threatened by excessive public sector debt.
3/18/2011
thenassauguardian editorial
thenassauguardian editorial
Governments, international agencies, rating agencies and most businessmen regard the level of national debt to the size of the economy (GDP) as one of the most important economic indicators in assessing the current and future health of the economy.
The national debt consists of funds borrowed directly by the government plus any debt of the government corporations which have been guaranteed by the government.
Governments usually borrow funds when there is a need to undertake capital projects (office buildings, schools, roads, docks etc.) and the revenue from taxes is insufficient to cover the capital works.
The size of any economy determines the level of potential taxes that could be collected to meet government expenditure needs for, among other things, education, health, law enforcement, social welfare and of course, debt servicing of any loans taken out by the government.
Current and future living standards in any country are influenced by the amount of resources applied by governments, on a yearly basis, to education, health, national security, social welfare and other public sector areas.
In order to ensure that sufficient resources are available on a sustainable basis for those fundamental public sector functions, good fiscal management compels governments to restrain the growth in debt servicing to a level where it does not threaten to crowd-out and push aside the needs of the other important sectors of society.
In many third-world countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the public resources from tax revenues to finance public debt have exceeded the public resources allocations for education and health; a position considered by many as an undesirable path towards the lowering of living standards.
In an attempt to address poor policy choices by governments, international agencies such as the IMF (International Monetary Fund), World Bank and the IDB (Inter-American Development Bank) which provide economic advice on a global basis, urge governments to try and keep debt ratios (total national debt as a percentage of total national output or GDP) to a reasonable level.
In the case of developing countries such as The Bahamas, the level suggested is somewhere in the region of 40 percent.
Most countries, particularly those in the developing world, have fallen short of that objective.
Indeed, with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago at 26 percent, many developing countries are in the high 80s (Barbados) or, in some cases the ratio exceeded 100 percent, (Jamaica at 123 percent for example), while the European countries have set the debt to GDP ratio at 60 percent as the desired level for their community. Our nearest neighbor and largest trading partner, the United States, has a debt to GDP ratio that stands at an unusually high level of 97 percent.
When a country’s debt to GDP is high, it implies that the country is struggling and could have difficulty servicing its debt.
Currently The Bahamas’ ratio is in the high 50s and growing.
It is not yet in troublesome territory but given the trend over the past few years and the growing commitments to further borrowing, including the Chinese loans and the associated capital needs of the utility companies, there is surely some cause for some concern.
The policy makers and other interested parties would need to closely monitor the debt situation to ensure that the nation’s economy remains healthy and that our living standards are not threatened by excessive public sector debt.
3/18/2011
thenassauguardian editorial
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