Reflections on the FNM years
By BRENT DEAN
Deputy News Editor
thenassauguardian
brentldean@nasguard.com
Hubert Ingraham’s third mandate is nearing an end. Four years ago today he wrestled power away from his friend Perry Christie. Now, having chosen to run again, he stands on the brink of reelection for the fourth time or the end of a political career that has been historic.
When he won that mandate, Ingraham’s third, no one knew that much of the term would be spent responding to crises: a historic recession and a major crime problem.
Now, as the next general election nears, Ingraham and the Free National Movement (FNM) are preparing the message they think will successfully lead the winning campaign. The FNM must be careful, however, as it seems to be about to fall into the same trap Christie’s Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) fell into when it went into the last election.
The governing party must focus on tackling the issue most Bahamians are concerned about (crime) and it must not just tout its success building roads and laying pipes.
The PLP mistake
Christie and the PLP thought they had done a good job in governance when the 2007 general election came around. PLPs talked about the billions of dollars worth of investment projects on the way for the country that were negotiated by the PLP. They also talked about the more than 1,000 homes built by their administration while in office and the robust economy under PLP guidance.
In 2006, the last full year of Christie administration governance, the country’s economy grew by 3.5 percent in real terms.
The PLP went into the 2007 campaign thinking it had done enough to win reelection. It told the Bahamian people things were good, look at all the good things they had done. The party then lost to the FNM.
A major problem was that the PLP did not address several significant problems that concerned the electorate. It instead ran a campaign on the accomplishments it wished to highlight.
Then — as is the case now — the people were concerned about crime. The people were also concerned about the inability of Christie to control his Cabinet and party members.
Ingraham and the FNM realized this and pressed the issue. They ran a campaign on restoring trust in governance and they argued that the FNM had a leader who could better ensure that his members would not embarrass the country.
Knowing what issues are important to the country is critical. If a party has done much on the issues relevant to the people, it will be reelected. Vainly boasting of things the people are less concerned about could be disastrous.
The FNM’s third term
The FNM did well enough responding to the financial crisis of 2008. Those were dark days. The world narrowly missed a second Great Depression.
This crisis, and the subsequent recession, sent the Ingraham administration into crisis mode. It responded by expanding the social safety net. The unemployment benefit was created; welfare programs were expanded; and an electricity reconnection program was established for those who could not keep the lights on.
On the economic front, the big catch for the FNM in 2010 was an old fish: Baha Mar. The faltering project to transform the Cable Beach Strip was renegotiated and set in motion. It is expected that more than 4,000 Bahamians will be employed during the construction phase of the project.
While private sector spending declined as a result of the recession that set in after the financial crisis, the government increased its spending on infrastructure projects — and this spending has not stopped. It has morphed into what appears to be the cornerstone of the FNM’s campaign narrative.
“We are transforming New Providence and the historic city of Nassau into more than a world-class destination. We are seeking to make our capital island an urban center that works in terms of basic infrastructure, and that is a safe and inviting environment for artistic and cultural expression with an extensive network of parks, heritage sites and windows to the sea,” said Ingraham during his April 25 national address on the transformation and modernization of New Providence.
The Ingraham administration is spending hundreds of millions of dollars of borrowed money on this effort. New roads are being built; new water mains installed; new courts constructed; a new port is soon to open; the hospital is being upgraded; and straw vendors will soon have a new market.
Some of the infrastructure work is both necessary and urgent. The people in eastern New Providence have been living with poor water service for years. Some people rarely see clear water in the east. For them, brown rusty water is the norm. Low water pressure has also been a problem for these residents in recent years. The new water mains will help.
Overhauling New Providence is necessary. Addressing the citizenry on how the government is spending money borrowed on its behalf is also necessary. I would argue, however, that the upgrading of infrastructure is not the main issue on the minds of most Bahamians.
FNM must develop crime message and policy
Before the prime minister started his national address on the infrastructure works, he told the country that there was something else he would come back to speak about.
In the third paragraph of his text he said this, “Further, in short order, I will address the nation on crime, including the strengthening of existing facilities and the introduction of new measures to combat violent crime, an alarming murder rate, and a culture of criminality.”
By giving this note before he addressed his desired topic, the prime minister acknowledged that there is no getting around issue number one.
The high level of crime and violence in The Bahamas is startling. There have been three homicide records in the past four years and we are well on pace to set another record this year.
The Bahamas has one of the highest homicide rates in the region. There are about 26.6 homicides in this country per 100,000 population. The international standard strived for is five per 100,000. The United States was at this mark in 2009. Canada’s homicide rate in 2009 was 1.81.
The surge in killings in this country over the past two decades is significant. In 1991, 28 people were murdered in The Bahamas. This figure has more than tripled in 20 years and the population has not.
Our crime problem goes beyond homicides, however.
Over the last five years, armed robberies have trended up towards the highs of the mid-1990s. In the property crime category the 2010 police report reveals other disturbing trends. The 3,120 housebreakings recorded were the most in the country since 1998 (3,165).
Bahamians are afraid. Bahamians are spending more and more of their income on security. And while citizens bar themselves in, running from car to front door at nights, the bad guys are not being punished.
In his new book, “Reducing Murders in The Bahamas: A strategic plan based on empirical research,” police researcher Sergeant Chaswell Hanna reveals that from 2005 to 2009 there were 349 murders recorded and only 10 murder convictions and eight manslaughter convictions.
The FNM has done much to try to fix the crime problem. Along with refurbishing the courts, there have been three commissioners of police, two chief justices, four attorneys general and two directors of prosecutions during this term.
The government has also spent millions of dollars buying new equipment for police. Despite all of these measures, however, the crime problem is worsening.
Fortunately for the FNM, the PLP has no declared crime strategy yet. And, the PLP is allowing the election campaign to progress without making crime the focal point of its strategy.
Address what is relevant and victory is possible
The FNM would be foolish to try to run an election campaign without making crime its lead issue. It should not fear discussion of the topic most pressing on the minds of Bahamians. Not to do so would be to embrace the same folly that led to the PLPs demise in 2007. The PLP thought the scandals involving its members were just media-created nuisances, for example. The people thought the scandals demonstrated weak leadership and a party without discipline. The party did not address the issue, or the crime concerns people had at the time, and the election went to the opposition.
If the FNM shows that it has a robust set of new measures that would improve the conviction rate and keep offenders incarcerated, the people would listen. Because the PLP has offered no new crime solutions yet, the governing party could own the issue. What the opposition would come up with in response would look like a desperate attempt to catch up.
The governing party must not worry about its failures during the first four years of this mandate when it comes to crime. The record is there, it tried. What must be demonstrated is that the party has the will to keep trying and that it hears the cries of its people.
Just talking about roads and pipes will not lead the FNM to a fourth term in office.
5/2/2011
thenassauguardian
A political blog about Bahamian politics in The Bahamas, Bahamian Politicans - and the entire Bahamas political lot. Bahamian Blogger Dennis Dames keeps you updated on the political news and views throughout the islands of The Bahamas without fear or favor. Bahamian Politicians and the Bahamian Political Arena: Updates one Post at a time on Bahamas Politics and Bahamas Politicans; and their local, regional and international policies and perspectives.
