The Steady Decline of The Bahamian Nation - The Bahamas
Nassau, The Bahamas
A political blog about Bahamian politics in The Bahamas, Bahamian Politicans - and the entire Bahamas political lot. Bahamian Blogger Dennis Dames keeps you updated on the political news and views throughout the islands of The Bahamas without fear or favor. Bahamian Politicians and the Bahamian Political Arena: Updates one Post at a time on Bahamas Politics and Bahamas Politicans; and their local, regional and international policies and perspectives.
OPM DID NOT SEND CBS NEWS TEAM TO COVER MURDER SCENE
"Director Latrae Rahming, your statement is not only a slap in the face to every Bahamian but also a clear indication of where the government's priorities lie. The audacity to publicize areas safe for tourists while leaving your own citizens to navigate through violence and fear is beyond appalling.
Coalition of Independents
By Dr. Kevin Turnquest-Alcena
Living in fear
Taneka Thompson
Guardian Senior Reporter
taneka@nasguard.com
Every time Kayla Sands comes home she checks under the bed and looks in the closet for signs of an intruder.
Her fear of being surprised by an attacker interferes with daily errands, keeps her anxious and constantly on guard. Sands, whose name has been changed because she did not want her identity disclosed, considers herself ‘paranoid’ but said her fear is justified. A man held her up at gunpoint one afternoon last year as she picked up lunch at a popular restaurant.
Sands believed the gunman, who threatened to kidnap her and eventually stole her car, was going to kill her. Luckily she escaped the holdup alive, but in the months after the incident her anxiety over future attacks has intensified.
“I can’t even open my door to take out my garbage or sometimes even go to the bank to withdraw money by myself,” said Sands.
“I keep looking over my shoulder because of my fear that someone is going to follow me home. When I get home I look in the closets and check under the beds. It makes me very uncomfortable doing my daily routine.”
Her fear has grown after news broke Monday that over the past few months numerous women in New Providence have reportedly been raped during home invasions.
“I want a gun now. I want to be locked and loaded - I want two. [My fear] is amplified now. I didn’t even know a rapist was on the loose,” Sands told The Nassau Guardian yesterday.
She is not the only woman in New Providence who now wants to arm herself against potential rapists and other would-be attackers.
“This makes me want to go and buy a gun,” Rochelle Wells, whose name has also been changed, said yesterday, referring to the reported rapes. “It’s one thing to get robbed and even killed but I think getting raped - I can’t imagine that not being the greatest fear for any woman.”
Wells said she was the victim of a gun attack on a night in 2010. She said two armed men robbed her and her boyfriend as they pulled up to her home in eastern New Providence. The attackers shot at her car and made off with her purse.
Wells, an avid runner, is now thinking about adjusting her exercise schedule to make herself less vulnerable to attackers.
Karen Davis, who also did not want her real name disclosed, said she found out about the rapes through Facebook long before the reports made the news. She said the police should have warned the public earlier.
“We live in an Internet age and it is common to find out information from the Internet before anywhere else,” Davis said. “When you read something on the Internet, you are not sure if it is true or if the story is being exaggerated but once it was in the news, I took it more seriously.”
She said the fear of crime has not altered her life too much but she is vigilant when driving home at night.
“I do take the extra time to check the windows and doors and my surroundings before I go outside or when coming home,” Davis said.
On Monday, Assistant Commissioner of Police Anthony Ferguson said four alleged victims who live in eastern New Providence, reported sexual assaults over the past few weeks. This led police to increase patrols in undisclosed areas.
Four more alleged rapes occurred in western New Providence over the past few months, Ferguson said.
He added that police have received reports of one or two men breaking into homes in quiet communities and holding residents at gunpoint between 2 a.m and 6 a.m. to steal jewelery, cash and sometimes rape women.
Jun 27, 2012
Confronting the Bahamian debt crisis pt. 1
By Arinthia S. Komolafe
In the aftermath of the worst recession since the Great Depression, the government is challenged with reduced revenues, soaring energy and food prices, high unemployment, rising crime levels and social ills. In response to these challenges and in order to stay afloat, the government has resorted to borrowing. The reality is that imprudent borrowing practices prior to and during the economic downtown have exacerbated the economic soundness of our government.
The story of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the lessons learned are well documented. However, four years after the ‘Great Recession’ commenced, the Bahamian economy continues to struggle. It was reported that the Bahamian banking system was resilient to the crisis and to some extent the economic downturn because of our credit policies as administered by the Central Bank of The Bahamas (CBB). However, was this assertion truth or fallacy? One wonders if based upon the facts and looking back in hindsight whether the current mortgage and ultimately debt crisis was an accident waiting to happen. Could it be that the economic downturn exposed flaws in our monetary policy and credit risk management framework?
Background
A journey down memory lane and history, will show that the CBB in August 2004 in an attempt to ensure that credit expansion was consistent with economic growth, advised banks to monitor borrowers’ creditworthiness by limiting the debt service ratio (DSR) on loans to a range of 40 percent to 45 percent of ordinary income and require a minimum of 15 percent equity contribution on all personal loans with exceptions to those secured with mortgage indemnity insurance. A short one month later, the CBB temporarily relaxed those policies by eliminating the 15 percent equity requirement and raised the DSR threshold to 55 percent. It is noteworthy to state that the reason given for this change was to aid in relief due to the effects of Hurricane Frances. It is unclear, however, how many banks took advantage of this flexibility, the immediate impact on the economy and how long these policies actually remained in effect.
However, some four months later, the CBB reduced its discount rate (DR) from 5.75 percent to 5.25 percent and the prime rate (PR) was consequently reduced by 50 basis points to 5.5 percent. It is imperative that we examine the aforementioned policy decisions made by the CBB in the context of the Bahamian economy which is primarily consumer driven.
In the absence of an established credit bureau, it is difficult to assess the creditworthiness of Bahamian consumers and almost impossible to assess whether a consumer’s DSR truly falls within the 40 percent to 45 percent range. Taking a conservative hypothetical approach (and I must emphasize that this may be extremely conservative) and assuming that a majority of consumers had a ‘real’ maximum DSR of 55 percent as opposed to the required maximum 45 percent, it follows that an increase of the DSR to 55 percent would increase the ‘real’ DSR to 65 percent, leaving the consumer with an ultimate disposable income rate of only 35 percent.
In addition to the scenario painted above, a decrease in the DR and PR all things being equal, should further encourage borrowing and expand credit. This brings into question whether the objective of ensuring that credit expansion was consistent with economic growth was achieved. In 2004, with the CBB’s policy to restrict credit expansion, the amount of mortgages for new construction of single dwelling homes stood at a mere 894. To highlight the effect the aforementioned policy change had on the mortgage market, in 2005 and 2006 government revenue on stamp tax for mortgages almost doubled in 2005 compared to 2004 and increased significantly in 2006.
Further, residential mortgages for new construction of single dwelling homes stood at 1,428 and 1,137 in 2005 and 2006 respectively. The total processed value amounted to approximately $300 million for these years. It is uncertain how many persons painted a true picture of their DSR and the real question is whether the majority of persons who obtained mortgages during this period should have actually qualified for those mortgages. This is bearing in mind that as at December 31, 2011 mortgage delinquencies stood at approximately $650 million.
Mortgage sector and housing market in crisis
Today with unemployment at its highest in years and individuals on reduced pay, it seems fair to state that the mortgage sector and housing market are in a crisis. It is not surprising that many Bahamians have defaulted on their mortgage obligations with mortgage delinquencies standing at approximately $650 million in arrears for the entire Bahamas. In order to appreciate the extent of this debacle, a look in the newspapers will reveal a fraction of the number of foreclosed properties advertised for sale. It has been argued that the reduction of the DR and PR by 75 basis points in June 2011, although welcomed came too late and that the reduction was inadequate.
The government is being called upon to provide mortgage assistance for those who are losing their homes. Proponents of this relief effort cite the millions of dollars expended on capital infrastructure by the government in justifying this move as the right action required. They submit that if the government could spend such exorbitant amounts on infrastructure and the purchase of shares, it is only fair that the government would provide relief to struggling homeowners. Opponents of any form of mortgage relief efforts by the government argue that in a capitalistic society, the government should not interfere with private enterprise. After all, opponents submit the free market economy is designed to have minimal government intervention and market forces must be left to control the market.
In the final analysis, there is enough blame to go around; starting with the government, the lending institutions and the consumer. In the years leading up to the financial and economic downturn, the government benefitted from the credit expansion as a result of monetary policy in the form of increased stamp tax revenue, the lending institutions turned over record profits and consumers benefitted from unprecedented access to credit facilities.
It is only fitting, therefore, that the aforementioned benefactors should come together to bring resolution to this crisis. In order to avoid further deepening of this crisis, the government on its part, should explore establishing a fund to assist eligible homeowners in retaining their homes. Adjustments to the DR and PR by the CBB should be stalled until a credit bureau and robust consumer protection agency as a matter of urgency have been established. The lending institutions should take significant steps to refinance mortgages on more favorable terms for consumers and more importantly consumers should exercise increased prudence in the management of their finances.
•Arinthia S. Komolafe is an attorney-at-law. Comments can be directed at: arinthia.komolafe@komolafelaw.com
Mar 09, 2012Gangster’s Paradise Part 1
By Ian G. Strachan
Crime and the political class
There is no greater problem facing The Bahamas, as far as the average Bahamian is concerned, than violent crime. Unfortunately, violent crime is itself merely a manifestation, a symptom of deeper problems, troubling weaknesses in our systems, institutions, communities, families, psyches. Some of the weaknesses are beyond our control – such as our size, our geographical fragmentation and proximity to the largest consumer society in the world. Others exist because of our own neglect, incompetence, complicity, fear and ignorance.
It seems sometimes as if we want with all our hearts to do away with the shameful symptoms of our disease: Murder, rape, armed robbery, as if these were ugly, painful lesions on a pretty face, but we have no matching zeal to cure ourselves of the disease that lurks deep within, creating these conspicuous eruptions.
Over the next few weeks we will explore the vexing matter of crime in The Bahamas. We will try to be guided by the research and considered thoughts of those who have already dedicated time and effort to these problems (because I have no interest in re-inventing the wheel).
Where we are
First, let us put our current situation in The Bahamas in perspective – regional perspective. Here, we are alarmed at our murder rate. I don’t wish to say that the alarm is misplaced, but I’d like to look at the murder rate for a moment as a regional phenomenon. Where do we stack up? In 2010, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Trinidad and Tobago had 472 murders or 35 per 100,000 people. The Dominican Republic had 2,472 murders or 24 per 100,000. St. Lucia had 44 or 25.2 per 100,000. Puerto Rico had 983 murders or 26 per 100,000. Jamaica had 1,428 or 52 per 100,000; Dominica 15 or 22 per 100,000 and The Bahamas 96, or 28 per 100,000 people. (Police now say we only had 94 in 2010.)
The Caribbean nation most like our own demographically and historically, Barbados, had 31 murders in 2010. By comparison, the U.S. had five murders per 100,000 people, Canada had 1.8 per 100,000 people, Japan and Singapore had 0.5 murders per 100,000 people and Germany 0.8 per 100,000. You can see then that as a region we are recording very high murder rates compared to the industrialized countries. In fact, the Caribbean has many of the highest murder rates in the world. I could not find murder rates higher than The Bahamas’ anywhere outside of the Caribbean, Africa and Latin America. Before this series is done I shall have discussed that phenomenon with some of our criminologists and sociologists.
Crime is much, much broader than murder, as we know, but murder captures everyone’s attention because it is the most serious, most shocking of crimes. A 2007 World Bank report on crime and its impact on development in the Caribbean noted that: “The high rates of crime and violence in the region have both direct effects on human welfare in the short-run and longer run effects on economic growth and social development.”
That should sober us. Crime and violence have deep seated economic impacts. The report also noted that “the strongest explanation for the relatively high rates of crime and violence rates in the region – and their apparent rise in recent years – is narcotics trafficking.”
The drug trade drives crime in a number of ways: Through violence tied to trafficking, by normalizing illegal behavior, by diverting criminal justice resources from other activities, by provoking property crime related to addiction, by contributing to the widespread availability of firearms, and by undermining and corrupting societal institutions.
Perhaps most importantly, the report warned that in trying to reduce crime, violent crime especially, “There is no one ‘ideal’ approach. The common denominator is that successful interventions are evidence-based, starting with a clear diagnostic about types of violence and risk factors, and ending with a careful evaluation of the intervention’s impact which will inform future actions.”
Whose side are the legislators on?
Over the next few weeks we’ll discuss a variety of crime fighting strategies available to us in this country. But I wish to begin by discussing the role lawmakers and aspiring lawmakers have played in sanctioning, enabling and rewarding criminality in this country. To put it bluntly, our politicians must choose sides: Either they are on the side of those who are accused of committing crimes or they are on the side of the rest of society. They should no longer be able to have it both ways. What do I mean?
We have sitting members of our Parliament and men aspiring to sit there, who have represented and continue to represent, accused drug dealers, accused rapists, accused operators of illegal gambling houses, accused murderers. I distinctly remember interviewing a very accomplished politician once, a man at the center of many of the nation’s most important political events of the last 50 years. This gentleman boasted to me of the number of accused murderers he had gotten off (it was close to 30 if I recall correctly). His intention was to convince me of his legal prowess. Instead I was chilled at the thought that this legislator, this champion of our democratic achievements, had also possibly had a hand in freeing nearly 30 cold-blooded murderers. Someone’s got to do that job; I understand that. But I cannot accept that it must be my elected representatives.
I have mentioned on a number of occasions the troubling fact that the Member for Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador, and now deputy leader of the PLP, Philip “Brave” Davis, was the lawyer for the most wanted drug trafficker in this country, Samuel “Ninety” Knowles. But Davis is not special, nor is he unique. We simply happen to remember the name of his most famous client. What about Carl Bethel, Desmond Bannister, Dion Foulkes, Alfred Sears, Glenys Hanna-Martin, Branville McCartney, Damien Gomez, Allyson Maynard-Gibson and Wayne Munroe? Who have they defended over the course of their careers? How many people accused of violent crime, or of brazenly flouting our laws, have they defended for a handsome fee?
These men and women will no doubt defend themselves by insisting they are not doing anything that is contrary to the rules of our Westminster system. They will no doubt ask why they should be singled out and denied a living while physicians, accountants, engineers, businessmen are allowed to conduct their affairs and are subject to no such criticism if they serve or aspire to serve in Parliament.
I believe all MPs should be full time and should not be allowed to work for anybody else while they serve the people, first of all. But that aside, the practice of law must in my view be treated differently, since the business of the parliamentarian is to create laws. Doctors make a living making people sick (they’re not supposed to anyway). But the criminal defense attorney makes a living helping men and women evade punishment who are, in the considered opinion of police, guilty of violent crimes. I repeat: Someone’s got to do it. But if you do, how dare you then ask me to make you attorney general, or minister of this or that, or member of Parliament. And how dare you give speeches about how you feel for suffering victims. What kind of country is this?
What is the message you send to the street thug, the murderer, the drug lord, the rapist, the arm marauder, or to the impressionable admirer of such people, or to the victims of such people, when you choose to represent them before the courts and potentially help guilty men escape justice – not just before you run for political office, but while you hold such an office? Yes, we are all innocent until proven guilty, but with 1,000 lawyers, I think it is safe to say that criminals won’t have too much trouble finding legal representation.
The 41 men and women who sit in the lower house and those who sit in the Senate should be people who have spent their whole careers defending and building us up, not defending and assisting those who are tearing us down.
The marriage of politics and crime
There’s more. The marriage of politics and crime is a long standing one shrouded in silence. Remember the 1967 Commission of Inquiry into the connections between organized crime in the U.S., casinos and the Bahamian government? Remember the 1984 Commission of Inquiry into drug trafficking and governmental corruption? How many arrests and incarcerations of Bahamian politicians on charges of corruption have occurred in the last 50 years? What has become of the so-called investigation into the handling of Crown Land for instance?
And what connection has existed between politics and the numbers business? How far back does that connection go? To the very heyday of the majority rule struggle? And how many politicians, FNM and PLP, walk the streets campaigning with accused criminals on bail, or ex-cons or men “known to the police”? Do their services as campaign generals buy them immunity? Free legal help? In the fight against crime, we must strike at the root. Zero tolerance begins in our own house – the House in Parliament Square.
Oct 24, 2011
Study keys in on causes of crime
By Candia Dames
Guardian News Editor
candia@nasguard.com
A new scientific study by a College of The Bahamas researcher has concluded what may come as no surprise to policymakers: Increases in population lead to increased crime while increases in gross domestic product (GDP) lead to decreased crime.
“If you know what your population growth is going to be, the government would have to increase GDP by a certain amount to keep the crime rate at wherever their quota is,” said Dr. Yan Lyansky, an assistant professor in the School of Mathematics, Physics and Technology.
Lyansky has come up with a mathematical formula, which he said could accurately predict what the rate of crime would be at any given point in the future based on the population of The Bahamas and the size of its economy.
“Everybody is worried about crime, but according to the numbers it doesn’t look different historically from what’s been going on a very, very long time ago,” he said.
“What I mean is when you talk about population growth, you’re going to naturally get more crime and everything looks consistent.
“It looks like maybe in more recent history there is little more of a spike but there’s not enough data for that to analyze.”
The paper is one of the studies that will be presented at COB’s 2011 Violence Research Symposium on November 3.
The goal of the research conducted by Lyansky is to find the best predictors of violent crime in The Bahamas.
“We assume that the government will be able to change policy to lower the crime rate if it knows the determining factors that influence crime,” said the study’s abstract.
The paper notes that crime has been an escalating problem in the Caribbean. In The Bahamas, the general public perceives that crime is out of control, it adds.
The paper also says, “The police commissioner is under pressure to find a solution to the problem.”
The study says that as the population increases, the government may need to invest an even greater proportion of its resources in dealing with crime as the number of crimes increase.
It adds, “Government policies should be designed to increase the prosperity of the nation, but what this data shows is that when the country can not position itself to compete or can not cope with external shocks, then crime would be expected to rise.”
In an interview with The Nassau Guardian, Lyansky said, “We can predict exactly where the crime rate’s going to be moving forward, given the fact that it has been very accurate in the past.”
He said that many people who speak about crime and the causes of crime — including some authorities — do not speak from a factual position.
“A lot of the things that are written about crime, that I’ve read, and the explanations that I’ve heard make me shake my head. They’re not going to help advance a solution,” Lyansky said.
As an example, he said, “The police commissioner, he was close to my house one day giving a talk and his explanation was that it’s all based on drugs and you know, that’s a bunch of nonsense and the reason it’s nonsense is I would actually have liked to make a correlation between the two, however, there is no data on drugs, drug usage or anything here so to make a blanket statement like that, it’s just a statement.
“You’re not actually going to be making progress from [those kinds of statements].”
Lyansky said there are so many inconsistencies in explanations some people provide regarding the causes of crime that it’s impossible to make any scientific determinations about them.
Speaking of the importance of scientific research, he said, “It gives you a better predictor moving forward.
“…If you need GDP to increase and you know the population’s going up, you need to do this to GDP and hence that would be a basic way (to fight crime).”
Oct 24, 2011
The prime minister’s national crime address
So much has been said in recent years about crime in The Bahamas. There have been four murder records in five years. Over that same five-year period more that 13,000 cases of housebreaking have been reported. Most of those homes were broken into in New Providence.
Bahamians are fearful. Bahamians are not sure that their law enforcement agencies and politicians are up to the task to fix the problem.
Opposition leader Perry Christie and his party seem to understand that crime is likely the most significant issue on the minds of most Bahamians. Christie, who is not known for leading the way, got out ahead of Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham in August. He made a national address on crime and offered solutions on behalf of his party.
Some of the ideas Christie presented had promise; others did not. However, in speaking to the country formally on the issue as the opposition leader and a former prime minister, Christie indicated that crime was an issue that must now be addressed and debated at the leadership level.
Ingraham said Sunday he would make a national address on crime Monday coming. His address will come almost six months after he promised during the national address on public infrastructure to speak about the growing crime problem in The Bahamas.
Ingraham made the crime address pledge at Lynden Pindling International Airport as he arrived back in The Bahamas from an official visit to Washington, D.C. He made the pledge after reporters asked him crime related questions. It is unclear if Ingraham had previously decided to make the national address or if he made the pledge in an effort to end the questioning.
Nonetheless, the address is needed and it will be interesting to hear what the prime minister has to say.
Ingraham has a fine line to negotiate. He will likely mention the millions of dollars his government has provided to the various agencies of the criminal justice system. He will likely also bring up the refurbishment of the courts.
Ingraham and his government have also gone further. Since coming to office in 2007 the chief justice has been changed, there have been three commissioners of police, two directors of public prosecution and at least five commanders at the Central Detective Unit.
His government has tried and it continues to try. But, as the numbers show, the crime problem is worsening.
What the PM needs to address is the competency of the leadership of his law enforcement agencies and whether or not certain agencies are adequately staffed with competent people.
Police investigate serious crime and lawyers from the Office of the Attorney General prosecute the cases. If the cases are poor and the prosecutors are less than capable, and there are too few of them, then few people will go to jail for the crimes they commit.
And, if the AG’s Office cannot bring forward cases fast enough, or if it does not want to because the cases were poorly prepared by police, then judges will grant bail to accused persons who would then be free to offend again.
There is too much talk now about everybody doing a good job. In this time of civility we say the commissioner of police and his officers are doing a good job; we say the National Security Ministry is doing a good job; we say prosecutors are doing their best. If police and prosecutors are doing their best, and the crime situation in The Bahamas is worsening, then those officers and prosecutors are not up to the task to help reverse the trend.
As we mentioned in a previous editorial, leadership is needed on the crime issue.
The prime minister must pledge bold action and show passion when he addresses his people. The money spent so far has not yet led to any meaningful results. We need to know what is next.
Simply put, we need to restore the quick connection between crime and punishment. And we need to ensure that the people who lead the critical divisions of the police force and the AG’s Office related to investigating and prosecuting serious crimes are up to the task.
If they are not, something else should be found for them to do.
Sep 28, 2011