Showing posts with label Bahamas crime rate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bahamas crime rate. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Bahamas: Increases in population lead to increased crime ...while increases in gross domestic product (GDP) lead to decreased crime

Study keys in on causes of crime



By Candia Dames
Guardian News Editor
candia@nasguard.com



A new scientific study by a College of The Bahamas researcher has concluded what may come as no surprise to policymakers: Increases in population lead to increased crime while increases in gross domestic product (GDP) lead to decreased crime.

“If you know what your population growth is going to be, the government would have to increase GDP by a certain amount to keep the crime rate at wherever their quota is,” said Dr. Yan Lyansky, an assistant professor in the School of Mathematics, Physics and Technology.

Lyansky has come up with a mathematical formula, which he said could accurately predict what the rate of crime would be at any given point in the future based on the population of The Bahamas and the size of its economy.

“Everybody is worried about crime, but according to the numbers it doesn’t look different historically from what’s been going on a very, very long time ago,” he said.

“What I mean is when you talk about population growth, you’re going to naturally get more crime and everything looks consistent.

“It looks like maybe in more recent history there is little more of a spike but there’s not enough data for that to analyze.”

The paper is one of the studies that will be presented at COB’s 2011 Violence Research Symposium on November 3.

The goal of the research conducted by Lyansky is to find the best predictors of violent crime in The Bahamas.

“We assume that the government will be able to change policy to lower the crime rate if it knows the determining factors that influence crime,” said the study’s abstract.

The paper notes that crime has been an escalating problem in the Caribbean.  In The Bahamas, the general public perceives that crime is out of control, it adds.

The paper also says, “The police commissioner is under pressure to find a solution to the problem.”

The study says that as the population increases, the government may need to invest an even greater proportion of its resources in dealing with crime as the number of crimes increase.

It adds, “Government policies should be designed to increase the prosperity of the nation, but what this data shows is that when the country can not position itself to compete or can not cope with external shocks, then crime would be expected to rise.”

In an interview with The Nassau Guardian, Lyansky said, “We can predict exactly where the crime rate’s going to be moving forward, given the fact that it has been very accurate in the past.”

He said that many people who speak about crime and the causes of crime — including some authorities — do not speak from a factual position.

“A lot of the things that are written about crime, that I’ve read, and the explanations that I’ve heard make me shake my head.  They’re not going to help advance a solution,” Lyansky said.

As an example, he said, “The police commissioner, he was close to my house one day giving a talk and his explanation was that it’s all based on drugs and you know, that’s a bunch of nonsense and the reason it’s nonsense is I would actually have liked to make a correlation between the two, however, there is no data on drugs, drug usage or anything here so to make a blanket statement like that, it’s just a statement.

“You’re not actually going to be making progress from [those kinds of statements].”

Lyansky said there are so many inconsistencies in explanations some people provide regarding the causes of crime that it’s impossible to make any scientific determinations about them.

Speaking of the importance of scientific research, he said, “It gives you a better predictor moving forward.

“…If you need GDP to increase and you know the population’s going up, you need to do this to GDP and hence that would be a basic way (to fight crime).”

Oct 24, 2011

thenassauguardian

Thursday, May 26, 2011

...no end is in sight to high crime rates in The Bahamas, said a United States Embassy in Nassau February 2009 confidential cable titled “Bahamas: Crime concerns simmer as economy softens”

'National anxiety' over crime travel advisory


By BRENT DEAN
Deputy News Editor
thenassauguardian
brentldean@nasguard.com


The United States Embassy in Nassau closely monitors the crime situation in The Bahamas, noting the potential for a “high-profile violent crime tragedy” and resultant media disaster as a result of the high rate of crime in the country. It is also very aware of the immense fear many Bahamians have of the issuance of a travel advisory by the U.S. government, according to several cables in the WikiLeaks cache obtained by The Nassau Guardian.

“Against the background of economic crisis, the crime numbers, trends, and daily headlines, as well as the expressions of concern about the state of society, all indicate that no end is in sight to high crime rates in The Bahamas,” said the February 2009 confidential cable titled, “Bahamas: Crime concerns simmer as economy softens”.

There have been three homicide records in The Bahamas the last four years, and in 2011 the country is on pace for a fourth such record in five years.

Over the last five years, armed robberies have trended up towards the highs of the mid-1990s. In the property crime category the 2010 police report reveals other disturbing trends. The 3,120 housebreakings recorded were the most in the country since 1998 (3,165).

The Free National Movement (FNM) administration has done much to try to fix the crime problem. Along with refurbishing the courts, there have been three commissioners of police, two chief justices, four attorneys general and two directors of public prosecutions during this term.

The government has also spent millions of dollars buying new equipment for police; it has introduced a plea bargaining system; it has amended the Juries Act reducing the number of jurors from 12 to nine in non-capital cases; and it has put in place an electronic monitoring system for accused offenders.

Despite all of these measures, the crime problem has not improved.

In the December 2007 unclassified/for official use only cable, ‘Bahamas grapples with sharp rise in violent crime’, the embassy noted that that Juries Act amendment alone, which was implemented before the other measures mentioned, would not fix the Bahamian crime problem.

“No recent initiative, including the Juries Act amendment, is likely to make an immediate impact on the crime rate as long as the criminal justice system effectively puts indicted criminals back on the street to commit more crimes,” said the cable.

“Without introducing specific measures to monitor suspected offenders out on bail, break the logjam in the courts, or increase or optimize space in the prison to keep violent offenders in and others out, the GCOB (Government of the Commonwealth of The Bahamas) is unlikely to make much progress in addressing the underlying causes of the latest ‘crime wave’ to shake The Bahamas.”

The government has increasingly made statements indicating that it is working to improve the prosecution system.

Recently, Attorney General John Delaney and Director of Public Prosecutions Vinette-Graham Allen held a news conference explaining that the establishment of a case management unit at their office is expected to result in significant improvements in the administration of justice.

Recent public focus on the crime problem in The Bahamas has shifted to the quality of cases being produced by police and the quality of prosecution by the AG’s Office.

In his new book, “Reducing Murders in The Bahamas: A strategic plan based on empirical research,” police researcher Sergeant Chaswell Hanna reveals that from 2005 to 2009 there were 349 murders recorded and only 10 murder convictions and eight manslaughter convictions.

The Americans realized, based on the cable, that as long as The Bahamas is unable to prosecute and convict those it suspects of committing crimes, the crime problem in the country will continue to worsen.

Effects of the crime problem

The cables reveal that the U.S. does not think The Bahamas is that safe a place.

In a February 2006 unclassified cable, “Country Clearance: For consular management assistance team (CMAT) visit,” the embassy advised its visiting team to be careful in this country.

“Threat analysis: The threat against Americans from political activity is considered low. The threat from criminal elements is high. Incidents of violent crime have risen significantly in The Bahamas during the past few years,” said the cable.

“Travelers should use caution and common sense when moving about the island of New Providence. Visitors should travel in pairs, avoid areas prone to higher crime such as the Over-the-Hill area, and avoid isolated, deserted and/or poorly illuminated areas.”

In a January 2006 unclassified/for official use only cable, the embassy again expressed concern for the safety of its citizens in The Bahamas.

“During Spring Break, sexual assaults against American tourists are extremely high,” said the cable, which added that its Regional Security Office has also stressed the growing pattern of violence to embassy personnel, reminding employees to always be vigilant about their surroundings.

The fear of the American response

There have been several high profile criminal acts in New Providence in recent years, in tourism areas, which have alarmed Bahamians.

The November 2009 robbery of a group of tourists on tour at Earth Village; Sunday’s armed robbery at John Bull in the middle of Downtown Nassau; and the January 2008 murder of teenager Deangelo Cargill at a bus stop, also in Downtown Nassau, are some of the events in such areas that attracted national attention.

Referring to the 2008 Cargill murder, the embassy said in a cable that January, “How the government meets the crime challenge will play an increasingly decisive role in how the public perceives its overall effectiveness.

“This event has brought home to the Cabinet that it has no higher priority than beating back the surge in crime before the violence begins to impact The Bahamas' tourism-dependent economy.”

In these cables on crime the Americans do not seem to be near to taking a decision to publicly intervene and apply full pressure on the Bahamian government to accelerate worthwhile reforms to the local criminal justice system.

The U.S. already assists The Bahamas in significant ways regarding law enforcement — most noticeably through funding and manpower via Operation Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands.

The U.S. does understand, however, that Bahamians have an extreme fear of the issuance of a travel advisory informing Americans that The Bahamas is not a place they should travel to.

In that same 2008 cable after the murder of Cargill, listed as unclassified/for official use only, the embassy described the fear of such an advisory as a “national anxiety.”

“The downtown killing at the peak of the afternoon rush hour prompted renewed concern in the public and press about the potential issuance of a travel advisory or warning by the U.S. Embassy — an almost compulsive anxiety within the tourist-dependent island,” said the cable.

“In fact, the media have speculated for months, as the murder tally rose, over such an announcement and its potential negative effects on the all-important tourism sector, which forms the backbone of the economy in Nassau and The Bahamas.”

The embassy noted that officials had to make public statements indicating that no such advisory was imminent. Public consular information is already available for Americans advising them of safety issues in The Bahamas.

The realization by the Americans of this Bahamian fear likely means that if The Bahamas was to become uncooperative, as it was during the ‘drug days’ of the 1970s and 1980s, the use of this punishment would at the least get the attention of the leaders of the country.

5/25/2011

thenassauguardian

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Bahamians cannot have a crime free society while harbouring the criminal in the bosom of the family

Bahamian society must make a decision on crime

tribune242 editorial



THE hard working police force are today in the unenviable position of being "damned if you do, and damned if you don't."

The public wants the criminal removed from the streets. However, when he is removed, the next word the police have is that he's out on bail, up to more mischief, and the chase starts all over again. The public wants guns removed from society, yet society wants selective justice applied to those who are caught with an unlicensed firearm. On the other hand, the police want tougher sentences. For example, in England possession of an unlicensed firearm could mean five years in prison.

Police know that firearms are brought in on boats, even pleasure craft. "However, when we go to search these boats, we are accused of harassing boaters," said one officer, "so we back off, but we know that there are guns aboard those boats."

In other words society can't have its cake and eat it too. If they want the country cleared of illegal guns, the police will have to be free to search, and the courts should be obliged to prosecute.

For example, the police were criticised for the precautions they took to protect the House, the Prime Minister, MPs and members of the public during the recent Bay Street demonstrations against the sale of BTC to Cable & Wireless. They were condemned for bringing the dogs out "against the people." However, if something had gone wrong they would have been criticised -- and investigated -- for not having taken every possible precaution to anticipate an emergency.

A spokesperson for the various groups said that the objective was to stage a peaceful demonstration, however, some protesters were in a "militant" mood. And it was that mood -- with threats of creating a "small Egypt" -- that made the police prepare for the worst.

Despite the unions' attempts to insist that it was a union demonstration, the unions' presence was obliterated by political activists. However, Fox Hill MP Fred Mitchell made no bones about what the demonstration was all about. The fight to have BTC remain in Bahamian hands is a political one, he said, and all who oppose the sale of the company to Cable and Wireless should band together.

Senator Dion Foulkes, speaking in the Senate, said that several "PLP MPs, ratified candidate and senior party officers were active in that demonstration which became extremely unruly and if it were not for the fine men and women of the Royal Bahamas Police Force, Bahamians could have been hurt, indeed, one person was hurt: Mr Capron, who later publicly thanked the police for coming to his aid."

Mr Foulkes identified "Melanie Griffin, Bernard Nottage, Ryan Pinder, Alfred Gray, Obie Wilchcombe and Barbara Pierre, Secretary General of the PLP and former PLP Chairman Minky Isaacs" as among those at the rally.

"Shane Gibson," he said, "who the night before the demonstration was seen all over the southwest of New Providence on the back of a truck with a blow horn telling people to come to Bay Street.

"I suspect that they have distanced themselves from this demonstration because it was a total and absolute flop," said the senator.

Mr Mitchell also criticised government for "attacking" union leaders at that demonstration, who, he said, are "simply acting in the best interests of their members."

Mr Mitchell conveniently forgets the three-week teachers strike of 1981 -- under the Pindling government -- when teachers were also trying to improve the conditions in the schools and raise the standard of the teaching profession. Not only were the police and the dogs brought out against the teachers, but there were snipers on the various roof tops with a fire engine standing by, possibly to use the water hoses in case of an emergency. Several teachers were arrested. Opposition Leader Norman Solomon told members in the House on January 7, 1981 that the reason they were discussing the teachers' strike in the House that day was because it was facing a "certain amount of insurrection" below in the public square. He blamed it on "14 years of continuous mismanagement of the economy."

"Those were the days," said a teacher who had participated in the strike, "when professionals of similar qualifications in the civil service were making 30 per cent more than their counterparts in the teaching profession."

The former teacher said that when the teachers decided to strike in 1981 they did so for what they believed in, fully realising the consequences of their actions. Their pay was docked for the full three weeks of the strike. They did not complain, because when they decided to strike they knew that it meant loss of pay.

Today the BTC unions withdrew their labour, fully knowing the consequences, but not expecting government to take any action against them. The teacher failed to understand their reasoning or why they should condemn government for enforcing the rules. They withdrew their labour. If they were sincere in their protest, they should have expected not to have been paid.

It is the same with the police. Bahamians want society to be crime free, but they do not want to suffer the consequences of having a family member, who is causing some of the problems, suffer the consequences. It is now up to Bahamians to decide what they really want.

They cannot have a crime free society while harbouring the criminal in the bosom of the family. The Tribune has great respect for those families who take one of their own to the police station to "turn him in." Those are the families who are the Bahamas' solid citizens - it is a pity that there are not more like them. It is only then that the Bahamas will have any hope of reducing its crime rate.

April 12, 2011

tribune242 editorial