Recovery prospects 'nil' over short-term
By NEIL HARTNELL
Tribune Business Editor
The Bahamian economy's short-term recovery prospects are "nil", the Bahamas Chamber of Commerce's president warned yesterday, warning that the recession was "not close to being over by any stretch of the imagination" due to this nation's dependence on external forces that are themselves struggling.
Khaalis Rolle said the Bahamas' economic model made it almost totally dependent on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and US tourist visitor/spending levels to drive recovery, and both were under increasing threat from the possibility of a 'double dip' recession in North America and elsewhere, with the next three-six months being key.
"The prospects for recovery in the short-term are nil," Mr Rolle told Tribune Business. "Mr prediction has always been for stability over the next 24-36 months, and then we will see an improved level of confidence come back."
Adding that economic recovery "isn't automatic", the Chamber president said: "If follows the typical economic model, and under that model, when we're totally reliant on the consumer from the US to come here as a tourist and spend money, you're not going to recover."
A rebound would only be possible, Mr Rolle said, if there was an immediate upsurge in US business and consumer confidence, and a reduction in that country's employment numbers, something that was unlikely given the seeming possibility of a 'double dip' US recession.
Foreign
"Secondly, the Bahamian model of economic activity is completely and utterly built on foreign direct investment, and if foreign direct investment is at a standstill, everything else is at a standstill," he told Tribune Business.
"We have a ways to go. It's not, by any stretch of the imagination, close to being over. We have some challenges." US economic policy over the next three to six months, Mr Rolle said, was likely to determine whether it, and by extension the Bahamas, went "deeper into recession".
He was backed yesterday by his predecessor as Chamber of Commerce chairman, Dionisio D'Aguilar, who told Tribune Business that while many Bahamian businesses had "bottomed out" and settled into their "new normal", there was little for the private sector and consumers to get excited about in terms of recovery prospects.
"I think most businesses have settled where they are going to settle," Mr D'Aguilar said. "Most businesses have completed their decline and have bottomed out, and I think this is the new normal.
"Businesses are going to have to fight to get any substantial double digit growth in revenue.
"Indeed, if there's any growth at all it will be in the 1-3 per cent range. I don't see anything on the horizon to get us terribly excited.
"Ray Winder summed it up wonderfully [in yesterday's Tribune Business] in that the only item that will cause an uptick is foreign direct investment. There is nothing else out there."
Both current and former Chamber presidents thus agreed with Mr Winder and the Central Bank of the Bahamas, as each expressed growing concern yesterday over the prospects for a Bahamian economic recovery occurring in 2011. Mr Winder even suggested that without a major foreign direct investment rebound, a recovery in this nation may not be seen until 2012 at earliest.
The private sector's weakness was highlighted by the Central Bank's report on monthly economic and financial developments in July, as some 27 per cent of all commercial loans to Bahamian businesses and firms were said to be in arrears.
The Bahamian commercial banking system has an estimated $1 billion in outstanding credit to Bahamian companies, and the Central Bank reported that commercial delinquencies increased by $2.1 million to $270.6 million in July, as a $1.4 million decrease in short-term arrears was outweighed by a $3.5 million increase in non-performing loans.
Mr Rolle acknowledged that some companies with overdue loans were likely to go out of business, although those with greater strength might have the ability to refinance at more favourable rates and obtain some "breathing space".
Describing the private sector's health, Mr Rolle told Tribune Business: "I think the current state is tenuous at best, especially small and medium-sized businesses and businesses that rely on services. I know a lot of service businesses are being impacted. Companies in property management, facilities management, janitorial services, who are cutting back. We've got some challenges."
September 03, 2010
tribune242
A political blog about Bahamian politics in The Bahamas, Bahamian Politicans - and the entire Bahamas political lot. Bahamian Blogger Dennis Dames keeps you updated on the political news and views throughout the islands of The Bahamas without fear or favor. Bahamian Politicians and the Bahamian Political Arena: Updates one Post at a time on Bahamas Politics and Bahamas Politicans; and their local, regional and international policies and perspectives.
Showing posts with label Dionisio D'Aguilar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dionisio D'Aguilar. Show all posts
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Telecoms 'ripe' for increased taxation says former Chamber of Commerce president Dionisio D'Aguilar
Telecoms 'ripe' for more taxes
By NEIL HARTNELL
Tribune Business Editor:
Telecommunications is an industry "ripe" for increased taxation, a former Chamber of Commerce president yesterday urging the Government to "come up with innovative ways" to raise revenue by increasing fees on industries that paid "negligible taxes", such as banks/trust companies and the numbers business.
Suggesting that the Government impose a 1-2 per cent tax on making/receiving telephone calls, which is effectively a Bahamian national pasttime, Dionisio D'Aguilar said that if the Ingraham administration sought to raise revenues in its 2010-2011 Budget, it needed to look at fee increases that had the "least effect on the average person in the street".
Urging the Government to "come up with innovative ways to raise additional revenues", Mr D'Aguilar, who is also Superwash's president, told Tribune Business: "There are sectors of our economy that pay negligible taxes. Telecoms, that's a ripe one. Everyone pays a tax on their incoming calls. That's a totally undertaxed sector."
Mr D'Aguilar said such telecoms taxes were already levied in many other countries, and said a 1-2 per cent tax on telephone calls was "negligible to the consumer", especially since many Bahamians treated their cellular phones as a luxury.
Adding that he disagreed with fellow businessman Franklyn Wilson, who yesterday told Tribune Business that legalising gaming would result in net outflows from the Public Treasury, as a result of "gambling breeding poverty" and other adverse social consequences, Mr D'Aguilar said taxing the numbers business would raise millions of dollars per year in government revenue.
"Banks tend to be under-taxed compared to other businesses," he added. "It's a heavily under-taxed industry" compared to the income that Bahamian banks and trust companies generated per annum.
Mr D'Aguilar also pointed out that the Government was "not taxing services one bit", even though this was the sector accounting for the largest amount of economic activity in the Bahamas. He suggested, though, that the Ingraham administration was unlikely to do anything about this in the 2010-2011 Budget, and was likely to save it for a more comprehensive introduction of Value Added Tax (VAT).
"All you're looking at are fees, raising revenues from avenues that have the least effect on the average person in the street," Mr D'Aguilar said of the Government's efforts to plug the fiscal deficit and reduce the national debt.
"Look at the whole fee structure. There's a whole host of fees that are charged, but have not been amended, for four million years.
"They have to look at taxes that are easy to collect. Gasoline taxes are easy to collect because they are paid at the border when the fuel comes in. But property taxes are a nightmare to collect. Increasing property taxes could increase revenue, but not the Government's cash flow. And that's what we need to increase.
"The Government will not be able to get increased taxes from its traditional sources. Import duties are already high enough."
While all Bahamian governments were reluctant to cut spending and reduce the size of government, the former Chamber president suggested that the Ingraham administration now had to seize the moment offered by a public mood that was more prepared for austerity measures, and set the public finances back on track.
Arguing that the Government would find it impossible to accommodate the wishes of the likes of the Nassau Institute, which would like to see departments closed down and employees released, Mr D'Aguilar suggested that the administration "tackle" the generous pensions and benefits civil servants/public sector employees enjoyed.
Emphasising that this did not involve changes to basic salaries, the former Chamber president said: "They've got to get their house back in order. We don't want to go the way of the Greeks.
"The Government needs to look at the generous benefits it gives its employees. Salaries are one thing, but those generous and lucrative defined benefit pension plans for public sector workers and civil servants have to be tackled. That whole issue has to be tackled, as it will come home to roost one day."
May 07, 2010
tribune242
By NEIL HARTNELL
Tribune Business Editor:
Telecommunications is an industry "ripe" for increased taxation, a former Chamber of Commerce president yesterday urging the Government to "come up with innovative ways" to raise revenue by increasing fees on industries that paid "negligible taxes", such as banks/trust companies and the numbers business.
Suggesting that the Government impose a 1-2 per cent tax on making/receiving telephone calls, which is effectively a Bahamian national pasttime, Dionisio D'Aguilar said that if the Ingraham administration sought to raise revenues in its 2010-2011 Budget, it needed to look at fee increases that had the "least effect on the average person in the street".
Urging the Government to "come up with innovative ways to raise additional revenues", Mr D'Aguilar, who is also Superwash's president, told Tribune Business: "There are sectors of our economy that pay negligible taxes. Telecoms, that's a ripe one. Everyone pays a tax on their incoming calls. That's a totally undertaxed sector."
Mr D'Aguilar said such telecoms taxes were already levied in many other countries, and said a 1-2 per cent tax on telephone calls was "negligible to the consumer", especially since many Bahamians treated their cellular phones as a luxury.
Adding that he disagreed with fellow businessman Franklyn Wilson, who yesterday told Tribune Business that legalising gaming would result in net outflows from the Public Treasury, as a result of "gambling breeding poverty" and other adverse social consequences, Mr D'Aguilar said taxing the numbers business would raise millions of dollars per year in government revenue.
"Banks tend to be under-taxed compared to other businesses," he added. "It's a heavily under-taxed industry" compared to the income that Bahamian banks and trust companies generated per annum.
Mr D'Aguilar also pointed out that the Government was "not taxing services one bit", even though this was the sector accounting for the largest amount of economic activity in the Bahamas. He suggested, though, that the Ingraham administration was unlikely to do anything about this in the 2010-2011 Budget, and was likely to save it for a more comprehensive introduction of Value Added Tax (VAT).
"All you're looking at are fees, raising revenues from avenues that have the least effect on the average person in the street," Mr D'Aguilar said of the Government's efforts to plug the fiscal deficit and reduce the national debt.
"Look at the whole fee structure. There's a whole host of fees that are charged, but have not been amended, for four million years.
"They have to look at taxes that are easy to collect. Gasoline taxes are easy to collect because they are paid at the border when the fuel comes in. But property taxes are a nightmare to collect. Increasing property taxes could increase revenue, but not the Government's cash flow. And that's what we need to increase.
"The Government will not be able to get increased taxes from its traditional sources. Import duties are already high enough."
While all Bahamian governments were reluctant to cut spending and reduce the size of government, the former Chamber president suggested that the Ingraham administration now had to seize the moment offered by a public mood that was more prepared for austerity measures, and set the public finances back on track.
Arguing that the Government would find it impossible to accommodate the wishes of the likes of the Nassau Institute, which would like to see departments closed down and employees released, Mr D'Aguilar suggested that the administration "tackle" the generous pensions and benefits civil servants/public sector employees enjoyed.
Emphasising that this did not involve changes to basic salaries, the former Chamber president said: "They've got to get their house back in order. We don't want to go the way of the Greeks.
"The Government needs to look at the generous benefits it gives its employees. Salaries are one thing, but those generous and lucrative defined benefit pension plans for public sector workers and civil servants have to be tackled. That whole issue has to be tackled, as it will come home to roost one day."
May 07, 2010
tribune242
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