Meet the candidates: A look at the prospective future leaders of the FNM
By ADRIAN GIBSON
ajbahama@hotmail.com
With the 2012 general elections likely being the last election that PM Hubert Ingraham would lead the FNM into, one notes that in a post-Ingraham era—perhaps 2017—the FNM may find itself at a crossroad in terms of leadership. Whenever the Chief decides to depart the political scene, the impending leadership showdown within the FNM will be great theatre. As it stands, there is a conga line of leadership hopefuls, minor also-ran pretenders and plenty of peripheral figures.
No doubt, there will be persons vying for the leadership whose smug giddiness, jack-in-the-box outlooks and sulfurous presence in a runoff could setoff alarm bells. One can only imagine the great setback the party would suffer if such individuals were designated as leader. These days, Bahamians are tired of hearing meaningless missives by garrulous airheads seeking their support only to disappear into the abyss once they have it.
When it comes to the future leadership of both major parties, as it currently stands, the political cupboards are somewhat bare. Although there is a fluid field littered with leadership contenders and pretenders, there is no heir apparent for the FNM’s leadership. Frankly, when the time comes for the FNM to choose a future leader, there will be a need for a far-sighted, energetic and inspiring leader who can articulate a vision for our nation and who is decisive, reasonable and a good listener. As I look at the prospective future leaders of the FNM, if anyone has been overlooked or left out, it means that—at present— their candidacy would be of no significance in any leadership race within the FNM.
PM Ingraham, the FNM’s current leader, is a political legend who overthrew a political godfather (Sir Lynden Pindling) in a head-to-head matchup. Mr Ingraham, who is seen as a man of the people, has connected with a broad swath of the public and has rightly become a feared, revered and beloved figure. Since this is likely the last election he would lead the FNM into battle—he has indicated that he would retire after another term or if the FNM loses the election—today we’ll examine the chances of the persons seen as likely successors of Mr Ingraham.
Tommy Turnquest, the former leader of the FNM, appears to be too indistinct and unpopular to win a caucus within the party and, even more, win a general election. His term as leader was mired in mediocrity and, his current term as National Security minister, has been a long, stupendously ineffective blur!
It is difficult to describe Mr Turnquest as politically analytical and intuitive and, moreover, he seems remote—constantly being read as emanating a sense of separateness. The minister has been able to competently manage Parliamentary affairs as the leader of government business in the House of Assembly. Mr Turnquest is likely to be a part of any leadership clash as he has a prominent name in the FNM and his political naval string is buried in the party.
Carl Bethel has become the nowhere man of Bahamian politics. Mr Bethel has been said to have alienated many voters—both in the internal fabric of the FNM and within his constituency—and was previously beaten by DPM Brent Symonette in the deputy leadership race during the party’s 2005 convention.
Party sources assert that Mr Bethel considers himself a strong contender to succeed Mr Ingraham. That said, Mr Bethel is seen to be an arrogant no-hoper who could only win a race for the FNM’s leadership in his fitful and fanciful dreams. There are those in the hierarchy of the FNM and among the party’s council members who consider Mr Bethel a posturing wannabe whose fantasies about becoming Prime Minister will follow him into old age!
Due to Carl Bethel’s calamitous political record, particularly during his last posting at the Ministry of Education—of which he was relieved by PM Ingraham—one party insider wondered if he could effectively run a concession stand, weighed against a political party or our archipelagic country?
Bran McCartney. Surprise! Yes, I said it.
Bran McCartney was on the fast track to becoming the face of the FNM. The current leader of the DNA, who emerged from the belly of the FNM, may not be seen as trustworthy if he abandons the DNA and returns to the FNM. I think that one day, after PM Ingraham leaves the front line, he will!
So, does McCartney stand a chance in a hall of convention delegates after “severing” all ties with the party? Will he remain divorced from the FNM or seek a remarriage? Is the DNA Mr McCartney’s stage for his very own bigheaded and self-important posturing and pontificating with the expectation of impressing the council of the FNM with his organizational and leadership abilities? After all, he would be the only challenger—post-Ingraham—who has ‘leadership experience’, right?
Desmond Bannister has been the most competent Minister of Education in many moons. His youth, coupled with his attention to detail, energy and poise and political appeal, makes him a strong contender to succeed PM Ingraham as FNM leader. If Mr Bannister wins the North Andros seat—leaving a relatively secure seat in Carmichael to vie to represent his traditionally PLP hometown—it would be a strategic move that should make a statement as to his future in the FNM and about his ability to capture even the imagination of the PLP’s base.
Bannister is intelligent, erudite and cool under fire. His sober minded outlook and perceived common touch makes him one of the best bets to lead the FNM in a post-Ingraham era.
Dion ‘The Bruiser’ Foulkes, who is also a hands-on people’s person, will no doubt throw his hat into the leadership rumble. Foulkes is a charismatic politician whose family ties are entrenched in the FNM. If he wins his seat, that would bring added credence to his leadership chances.
Although he’s currently playing second banana, Brent Symonette is not to be underestimated politically. Whilst there are some who would vigorously oppose his ascension to the leadership, Mr Symonette is said to be a down-to-earth chap who has one of the safest seats in Parliament and is said to be so good on the ground that he’s referred to as a political groundhog during campaigns. That said, Mr Symonette’s detractors feel that he could alienate some voters, thereby making his trek to the top even more difficult.
Dr Duane Sands—whilst at this juncture a political featherweight—could win a seat and purportedly garner support in succeeding Mr Ingraham. I have long heard that Sands would be one of Mr Ingraham’s favorites in the race to succeed him. That said, will Dr Sands have the political horsepower to successfully overthrow a long line of seasoned contenders for the leadership?
Zhivargo Laing will lose his voice after Mr Ingraham’s departure. Frankly, his political career might simply implode! There are many persons who have come to see Laing as a second-rate imitator of PM Ingraham and as another man with forlorn hopes of leading the FNM. By all accounts, Mr Laing is not well-liked, seems intolerant to divergent views and, relative to the leadership, is attempting to step into a pair of oversized shoes.
If Mr Laing is thrusted to the leadership of the party, I doubt that the national electorate would have much to do as his constituents will likely ensure that he doesn’t have a chance—and, frankly, one must be elected to become Prime Minister. Mr Laing would need to be situated in a 100 per cent guaranteed FNM seat.
Dr Hubert Minnis is a respected voice who is gliding under the radar and quietly becoming one of the strongest contenders for the leadership. Dr Minnis is a one-of-a-kind presence and a tactical populist, who would be a top-tier candidate. He is one of the odds-on favorites to lead the party post-Ingraham, has eclipsed many longer tenured MPs in popularity and has proven to be a good policy administrator in his capacity as Health Minister.
So, who will it be? Could either Bannister or Minnis emerge as leader? It is likely.
Is the next FNM leader among the other potential challengers? Or, is the next FNM leader a dark horse candidate who has yet to grace the political scene or could it be someone from outside of the traditional FNM core, perhaps from another party? Admittedly, we’ve also seen that before. Time will tell…...in the meantime, next week I’ll take a look at the PLP’s likely leadership challengers post-Perry Christie.
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