The Bahama Journal Editorial
We wish we could – at the evocation of the word – get Bahamians to shop at home. From at least one perspective, shopping at home might and could be equated and totted up as if it was akin to a genuine civic virtue.
While we here at JCN are obliged to comment on what is happening in the economy; we too are obliged to note that, there are things we – as Bahamians – can and should do in order to keep this country’s economy afloat.
Each Bahamian and each resident can and should do their utmost to shop at home; remembering as they do that a dollar spent at home by each and every one of them translates into jobs retained or new jobs created.
Things –as they say – are still tight in the United States as that great nation struggles to get up from the direst of ravages caused by what some pundits have described as the Great Recession.
One indicator of just how tight things are can be gleaned from statistics showing that, tens of millions of Americans who are out of work will remain so for at least the next five years.
But for sure, the greatest indicator of all are those statistics that suggest that a Bahamian economy that is tethered to do that of the United States is in need of some new boost.
Here we can and will cite, some of what Mr. Khaalis Rolle has had to say on the matter at hand; this with many Bahamian companies in the private sector "on the brink" of failure, and many others holding on in the hope of a Christmas boost.
With sales down as regards consumer demand in some instances between 20-30 percent; Rolle asks rhetorically and plaintively: "From a sales standpoint, if you take 30 per cent of gross revenues away, this 20-30 per cent from off the top line, and calculate the average net return of around 12-15 per cent, it's extremely difficult to see where companies can remain profitable.
And for sure, here debt servicing becomes a very difficult proposition; it becomes very difficult to service debt.
In addition and as we understand some of what he had to say, the record suggests that, [Mr. Rolle - without mentioning the $2.6 billion Baha Mar project by name] again questioned whether MPs and policymakers "fully understand" the urgent need for a "catalyst" to revive the economy.
Here we go a step further, and note that, things are bad and now we hear say that they may go from bad to worse.
In this regard, it is quite interesting to note and take to heart some of what Rolle as president of the Chamber of Commerce suggests as he indicates that, “The consumer demand slump has made it "extremely difficult" for most Bahamian companies, whose net returns on investment average 12-15 per cent per annum, to remain profitable…”
We also hear what the Chamber president has to say when he notes that, this nation might be "five years away from beginning to see meaningful economic recovery".
In addition, Rolle describes this recession as "infinitely worse" that the post-September 11, 2001, 'short, sharp shock' to the Bahamian economy…” And yet again, we note that the same Khaalis Rolle recently told one major paper that, “…that using the 36-48 months that it took this nation to completely recover from those events as a benchmark, it seemed that the rebound from current events might take up to five years…]
This is an inordinately long time.
And for sure, with Christmas in the air –as the old saying puts it – Bahamians are doing whatever they can in order to enjoy themselves in the days and weeks ahead.
And as some of them are wont to do, some of the time they have will be spent in sprucing up their homes, buying presents and otherwise, making themselves ready for the arrival [so to speak] of a long-awaited king.
Indeed, such is the largeness of the upcoming season - in terms of what it means not only in the realm of our shared Christian faith; but for the men and women who happen to be businessmen and women.
These business types are the ones who can be expected to hire more labor in festive times like these; and for sure, they can be relied upon to help stimulate allied areas of the economy.
It is this aspect of the matter as it relates to consumer spending and what such expenditure means for the rest of the society.
In short, as money is circulated, it stimulates demand in other areas; with the result that a dollar spent in one area can and does spark results elsewhere in the system.
In the ultimate analysis, then, shopping at home makes good economic and social sense for all Bahamians; that is why today, we encourage it to the maximum degree possible.
December 7th, 2010
The Bahama Journal Editorial
A political blog about Bahamian politics in The Bahamas, Bahamian Politicans - and the entire Bahamas political lot. Bahamian Blogger Dennis Dames keeps you updated on the political news and views throughout the islands of The Bahamas without fear or favor. Bahamian Politicians and the Bahamian Political Arena: Updates one Post at a time on Bahamas Politics and Bahamas Politicans; and their local, regional and international policies and perspectives.
Showing posts with label Khaalis Rolle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Khaalis Rolle. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Bahamas' recession woes are 'not close to being over by any stretch of imagination' - due to the nation's dependence on external forces that are themselves struggling
Recovery prospects 'nil' over short-term
By NEIL HARTNELL
Tribune Business Editor
The Bahamian economy's short-term recovery prospects are "nil", the Bahamas Chamber of Commerce's president warned yesterday, warning that the recession was "not close to being over by any stretch of the imagination" due to this nation's dependence on external forces that are themselves struggling.
Khaalis Rolle said the Bahamas' economic model made it almost totally dependent on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and US tourist visitor/spending levels to drive recovery, and both were under increasing threat from the possibility of a 'double dip' recession in North America and elsewhere, with the next three-six months being key.
"The prospects for recovery in the short-term are nil," Mr Rolle told Tribune Business. "Mr prediction has always been for stability over the next 24-36 months, and then we will see an improved level of confidence come back."
Adding that economic recovery "isn't automatic", the Chamber president said: "If follows the typical economic model, and under that model, when we're totally reliant on the consumer from the US to come here as a tourist and spend money, you're not going to recover."
A rebound would only be possible, Mr Rolle said, if there was an immediate upsurge in US business and consumer confidence, and a reduction in that country's employment numbers, something that was unlikely given the seeming possibility of a 'double dip' US recession.
Foreign
"Secondly, the Bahamian model of economic activity is completely and utterly built on foreign direct investment, and if foreign direct investment is at a standstill, everything else is at a standstill," he told Tribune Business.
"We have a ways to go. It's not, by any stretch of the imagination, close to being over. We have some challenges." US economic policy over the next three to six months, Mr Rolle said, was likely to determine whether it, and by extension the Bahamas, went "deeper into recession".
He was backed yesterday by his predecessor as Chamber of Commerce chairman, Dionisio D'Aguilar, who told Tribune Business that while many Bahamian businesses had "bottomed out" and settled into their "new normal", there was little for the private sector and consumers to get excited about in terms of recovery prospects.
"I think most businesses have settled where they are going to settle," Mr D'Aguilar said. "Most businesses have completed their decline and have bottomed out, and I think this is the new normal.
"Businesses are going to have to fight to get any substantial double digit growth in revenue.
"Indeed, if there's any growth at all it will be in the 1-3 per cent range. I don't see anything on the horizon to get us terribly excited.
"Ray Winder summed it up wonderfully [in yesterday's Tribune Business] in that the only item that will cause an uptick is foreign direct investment. There is nothing else out there."
Both current and former Chamber presidents thus agreed with Mr Winder and the Central Bank of the Bahamas, as each expressed growing concern yesterday over the prospects for a Bahamian economic recovery occurring in 2011. Mr Winder even suggested that without a major foreign direct investment rebound, a recovery in this nation may not be seen until 2012 at earliest.
The private sector's weakness was highlighted by the Central Bank's report on monthly economic and financial developments in July, as some 27 per cent of all commercial loans to Bahamian businesses and firms were said to be in arrears.
The Bahamian commercial banking system has an estimated $1 billion in outstanding credit to Bahamian companies, and the Central Bank reported that commercial delinquencies increased by $2.1 million to $270.6 million in July, as a $1.4 million decrease in short-term arrears was outweighed by a $3.5 million increase in non-performing loans.
Mr Rolle acknowledged that some companies with overdue loans were likely to go out of business, although those with greater strength might have the ability to refinance at more favourable rates and obtain some "breathing space".
Describing the private sector's health, Mr Rolle told Tribune Business: "I think the current state is tenuous at best, especially small and medium-sized businesses and businesses that rely on services. I know a lot of service businesses are being impacted. Companies in property management, facilities management, janitorial services, who are cutting back. We've got some challenges."
September 03, 2010
tribune242
By NEIL HARTNELL
Tribune Business Editor
The Bahamian economy's short-term recovery prospects are "nil", the Bahamas Chamber of Commerce's president warned yesterday, warning that the recession was "not close to being over by any stretch of the imagination" due to this nation's dependence on external forces that are themselves struggling.
Khaalis Rolle said the Bahamas' economic model made it almost totally dependent on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and US tourist visitor/spending levels to drive recovery, and both were under increasing threat from the possibility of a 'double dip' recession in North America and elsewhere, with the next three-six months being key.
"The prospects for recovery in the short-term are nil," Mr Rolle told Tribune Business. "Mr prediction has always been for stability over the next 24-36 months, and then we will see an improved level of confidence come back."
Adding that economic recovery "isn't automatic", the Chamber president said: "If follows the typical economic model, and under that model, when we're totally reliant on the consumer from the US to come here as a tourist and spend money, you're not going to recover."
A rebound would only be possible, Mr Rolle said, if there was an immediate upsurge in US business and consumer confidence, and a reduction in that country's employment numbers, something that was unlikely given the seeming possibility of a 'double dip' US recession.
Foreign
"Secondly, the Bahamian model of economic activity is completely and utterly built on foreign direct investment, and if foreign direct investment is at a standstill, everything else is at a standstill," he told Tribune Business.
"We have a ways to go. It's not, by any stretch of the imagination, close to being over. We have some challenges." US economic policy over the next three to six months, Mr Rolle said, was likely to determine whether it, and by extension the Bahamas, went "deeper into recession".
He was backed yesterday by his predecessor as Chamber of Commerce chairman, Dionisio D'Aguilar, who told Tribune Business that while many Bahamian businesses had "bottomed out" and settled into their "new normal", there was little for the private sector and consumers to get excited about in terms of recovery prospects.
"I think most businesses have settled where they are going to settle," Mr D'Aguilar said. "Most businesses have completed their decline and have bottomed out, and I think this is the new normal.
"Businesses are going to have to fight to get any substantial double digit growth in revenue.
"Indeed, if there's any growth at all it will be in the 1-3 per cent range. I don't see anything on the horizon to get us terribly excited.
"Ray Winder summed it up wonderfully [in yesterday's Tribune Business] in that the only item that will cause an uptick is foreign direct investment. There is nothing else out there."
Both current and former Chamber presidents thus agreed with Mr Winder and the Central Bank of the Bahamas, as each expressed growing concern yesterday over the prospects for a Bahamian economic recovery occurring in 2011. Mr Winder even suggested that without a major foreign direct investment rebound, a recovery in this nation may not be seen until 2012 at earliest.
The private sector's weakness was highlighted by the Central Bank's report on monthly economic and financial developments in July, as some 27 per cent of all commercial loans to Bahamian businesses and firms were said to be in arrears.
The Bahamian commercial banking system has an estimated $1 billion in outstanding credit to Bahamian companies, and the Central Bank reported that commercial delinquencies increased by $2.1 million to $270.6 million in July, as a $1.4 million decrease in short-term arrears was outweighed by a $3.5 million increase in non-performing loans.
Mr Rolle acknowledged that some companies with overdue loans were likely to go out of business, although those with greater strength might have the ability to refinance at more favourable rates and obtain some "breathing space".
Describing the private sector's health, Mr Rolle told Tribune Business: "I think the current state is tenuous at best, especially small and medium-sized businesses and businesses that rely on services. I know a lot of service businesses are being impacted. Companies in property management, facilities management, janitorial services, who are cutting back. We've got some challenges."
September 03, 2010
tribune242
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