Christie’s keys to success (Pt. 1)
By Dr. Ian Strachan
Logic would seem to dictate that in this long season of discontent, in this season of record unemployment, in this season of record bloodshed, in this interminable season of frustrating, confusing, infuriating “road works”, in this season of collapse for many homegrown businesses, in this time of rising fuel and food prices, logic would seem to dictate that the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP), under Perry Gladstone Christie, will be swept into office and the Free National Movement (FNM) will be ingloriously swept out.
Logic would seem to dictate that the FNM will be hard pressed to secure seats in New Providence other than those held by Brent Symonette, Dr. Hubert Minnis and Loretta Butler-Turner.
But there are some problems with this assessment. There are some very big questions looming like storm clouds over the PLP. The first is whether enough people feel comfortable returning Perry Christie to power. The second is whether the PLP has changed sufficiently or has a strong enough message to persuade crucial swing voters that the PLP is still the best alternative, despite how they feel about Leslie Miller, Bradley Roberts, Picewell Forbes, V. Alfred Gray, Shane Gibson, Allyson Maynard-Gibson and company.
It might seem reasonable to assume that the PLP hasn’t really lost much of its base since 2007. In fact, that base should have grown over the last four years given all the suffering and fear in the country. But the fact is, most Bahamians want to see a change in leadership in both established political parties, and they’re not going to get it. So interest in this election might be lower than normal. Even some traditional PLPs may register but stay away on election day.
It’s also reasonable to assume that some of the swing vote that was attracted to the National Democratic Party’s “Bahamians-first” message might gravitate toward the PLP, now that Dr. Andre Rollins and Renward Wells have joined and the NDP has fizzled. Their inclusion bodes well for Christie, particularly if they both get nominations. They will appeal to young change-minded voters.
But what do people really think of Perry Christie? Is he more popular and more respected than Hubert Ingraham? Than Bran McCartney? Without the national affection and regard felt for former PLP deputy leader Cynthia ‘Mother’ Pratt to buoy him, can Christie gain the confidence and trust of the majority of voters? The Christian community (which is mostly Baptist and Pentecostal) and the working poor identified strongly with ‘Mother’ Pratt. Where will the PLP get that kind of credibility from now? Is Deputy Leader Brave Davis a help or a hindrance? What about Chairman Bradley Roberts? Should Christie have persuaded Dr. Bernard Nottage, a man highly regarded by swing voters and Bahamians generally, to go for deputyship? Will the ghost of Lynden Pindling or the dignity and grace of Dame Marguerite be enough this time around?
Christie’s Achilles’ heel is the perception that he is a less decisive and results oriented, and a less effective manager than Ingraham. This is a big sticking point for the swing vote and the professional class. But Christie is not without advantages in this fight. For one, he is the warmer of the two men in interviews and more of an inspirational leader than Ingraham. The people may be tired of Ingraham’s short, dry-eyed approach and may want someone they perceive as more sympathetic and approachable at the helm.
Christie also has the luxury of sitting back and poking holes in all the FNM’s efforts to address the troubled justice and educational systems and the sputtering economy. Christie knows most voters have short memories and don’t care about what the PLP did or didn’t do five to 10 years ago. This is why he can say he supports hanging and not get laughed out of town.
Christie also has at his disposal the collective disenchantment, anger and fear that permeates the society. He is likely to milk this for all it’s worth and it’s worth a lot. Many of the angry and disenchanted will abstain from voting or vote DNA, but at least they won’t vote FNM. If the PLP can get its base out to the polls and woo even half or a third of the angry voters out there, it stands a good chance of coming out on top--even if “on top” means heading a minority or coalition government.
Sep 05, 2011
