...two big stories from the Free National Movement's (FNM’s) first mass rally of the 2012 general election season

A Broader Vision for Over-the-Hill

Front Porch

By Simon

There were two big stories coming out of the FNM’s first mass rally of the 2012 general election.  First, Hubert Ingraham unveiled his party’s agenda for the next five years.  In a nod to the Internet age and to younger voters, the FNM released its manifesto online as Ingraham made the announcement.

It was a PR bonanza reinforcing the image of competence and organization of Ingraham and his government.  It further reinforced the image of tardiness and disorganization of Perry Christie and his party.

Earlier that week Christie announced that the PLP was ready to govern on day one.  Despite this assertion, and an earlier claim that his party was prepared for the campaign, the opposition was caught flat-footed.

Almost a week into a four-week campaign, the opposition failed to produce a manifesto, and this from a party that has been agitating for the prime minister to hurry up and name the date of the election.  If the PLP still has not produced a manifesto by today, nomination day, it does not bode well for the party in the minds of many voters.

The inability to beat or equal the FNM in releasing its manifesto is a major blunder by the opposition.  When it is released, a part of the story will be the question of why it took so long.  Many voters will ask what such a delay may portend of another Christie administration.

Upended

There was another major story emerging from Ingraham’s remarks at the mass rally.  The prime minister effectively upended the opposition’s urban renewal mantra with a broader vision of urban redevelopment, incorporating potentially far-reaching initiatives.

Ingraham pledged a Back-to-the-Island Initiative which he hopes will be the beginning of “the largest migration ever back to the islands”.  He suggested that it might relieve urban congestion and serve as a crime-fighting measure.  The prime minister also pledged to launch, “the most comprehensive youth outreach and social intervention programs in the country’s history”.

He made a down-payment on that pledge on Sunday past by fulfilling a promise he made in his national crime address last year.  That down-payment is an additional $1 million in grants for youth and urban outreach programs.

Urban redevelopment requires a comprehensive vision, a vision long held by community activists such as Rev. C. B. Moss.  Ingraham’s vision includes social, economic and infrastructural development.  He pledged an Urban Gentrification Fund to “help with the restoration of homes in designated historic areas of our traditional Over-the-Hill communities”.

Ingraham also proposed what holds the promise of becoming one of the most significant economic initiatives for Over-the-Hill in the modern Bahamas.  That groundbreaking initiative is the Native Food Market.  He suggested that such a market would offer “real hope and economic opportunities to scores of Bahamians.  It will help to revitalize Over-the-Hill.  It can help to reduce crime”.

He indicated that the market would include “a permanent space to exhibit and showcase the history of Over-the-Hill and of our rich African heritage.  There will also be exhibition space to showcase traditions like ring play and traditional African dances”.

Much of what is being proposed builds on the dreams of cultural leaders like Edmund Moxey and his Jumbey Village, as well as the dreams of cultural icons like the late Kayla Lockhart Edwards and the late Jackson Burnside.

What Ingraham and the FNM are proposing outstrips the lesser vision of Christie’s urban renewal plans.  Essentially, Ingraham has proposed an expansive vision of urban redevelopment.

It is a potentially grand vision with the extraordinary potential to empower individuals and communities Over-the-Hill and throughout the country.  Sir Lynden Pindling’s government demolished Jumbey Village and what it represented.  But it could not kill the dream.

Authentic

It is a dream that is being renewed and revitalized in unexpected ways.  Such is the nature of authentic visions and life-giving dreams.  They have a spiritual force that bends the arc of history towards their ultimate fulfillment.

It may be an irony of Bahamian history that neither Sir Lynden, the proclaimed Moses, nor Perry Christie, a protégé, effectively launched a sustainable program of transformation and redevelopment of Over-the-Hill.

This historic accomplishment may become one of the greater legacies of Hubert Ingraham.  Like the Dissident Eight, and thousands of others, including Edmund Moxey, Hubert Ingraham had to leave the PLP to realize his progressive dreams.

Though stylized as the party of the poor, there were and remain core elements of the PLP fixed on an elitist worldview in which academic qualifications, social status and high net worth account for more than other qualities of character.

Being labelled as the Delivery Boy and Rude Boy by the PLP elite was an unmistakable dig at Hubert Ingraham’s socio-economic background.  The inference: “How dare this poor boy who went to school barefoot, and who is not of our social standing, dream that he can become prime minister.  He should be grateful for what we’ve done for him and mind his place.”

Today, the PLP remains strong in traditional Over-the-Hill neighborhoods.  This, despite what many see as decades of neglect and betrayal of the residents of these communities.

What the Delivery Boy has accomplished in terms of dramatically improving the public amenities and services for residents of his constituency of Cooper’s Town and North Abaco is in stark contrast to what Christie has, as dramatically, failed to do in Centreville and Farm Road.

The greater the political power one obtains, the greater the obligation of serving the poor.  It is a fundamental obligation of public service that one leaves a legacy of uplifting the poor.  It is a test of a nation’s humanity, “how it treats its most vulnerable members.  The poor have the most urgent moral claim on the conscience of the nation”.

Solidarity

Small bore “urban renewal” efforts by any party or the mere application of bandages or tourniquets to the problems of poorer urban communities are insufficient and insulting.  What is required are holistic responses in solidarity with those who live in these communities.

The PLP has too often taken for granted its support in poorer communities.  The FNM has too often taken for granted that it might not find more fulsome support in the very same communities.  The prime minister may be pleasantly surprised when he visits with residents of Bain Town and Grants Town this week.

Because of who he is, in terms of his record, biography and decades of public service, he will find that his message of an Opportunity Society will resonate with young people and residents Over-the-Hill.  He should be equally attentive to the voices and talents, needs and aspirations of those whom he meets.

While some view Ingraham being referred to as Papa as paternalistic, others view it as a sign of affection.  The Delivery Boy has become a father figure.  What is deeply hypocritical is that those who fawned over Sir Lynden as “Moses” and participated in the cult of personality around “Chief” now feign alarm at Ingraham being called Papa.

If The Bahamas ever risked slipping into dictatorship it would have been in the Pindling years aided and abetted by those who served as his courtiers and sycophants as he victimized others and presided over a government of mass corruption.

The two last terms of Sir Lynden’s premiership were not his best.  Indeed, they were arguably his worst.  For Hubert Ingraham, 2007 to 2012 and potentially the next five years may be among his best.  But, this is up to the Bahamian people.  And to the man who has journeyed from a poor boy to the Delivery Boy to Papa, his elevation to statesman is a work in progress.

Apr 17, 2012

frontporchguardian@gmail.com

www.bahamapundit.com

thenassauguardian

Fred Mitchell's Blood libel paints the Bahamian political scene and the 2012 general election in The Bahamas Red

An outrageous and bizarre statement

thenassauguardian editorial

Last week Leader of Government Business in the Senate Dion Foulkes disclosed in the Senate a secret cable from the U.S. Embassy in Nassau appearing on the WikiLeaks website.

The cable included allegations from a public officer in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs alleging that then Minister of Foreign Affairs Fred Mitchell was involved in a scheme to sell visas to Chinese nationals.

Foulkes tabled the cable after being asked to do so by Leader of Opposition Business in the Senate Allyson Maynard-Gibson.

Following the disclosure and tabling of the cable, Mitchell, the shadow minister of foreign affairs for the official opposition, described Foulkes’ actions as a new low in Bahamian politics.

Bahamians can judge for themselves what they think of Foulkes’ decision to disclose the cable.  We have observed Bahamian politics for many years.  We were also the original publisher of the WikiLeaks cables in The Bahamas.  Our series of stories reporting on these cables can be found on The Nassau Guardian’s website.

Given what we have observed over many years and as well as our decision to publish the WikiLeaks cables, we do not believe that their disclosure in the political arena is in itself problematic in terms of matters of policy and governance.  We would abhor the use of the cables to attack the personal lives of political figures.

What we do believe is a low point and way beyond the pale is comments made by Mitchell in response to Foulkes’ disclosure.  We reported those comments in detail in last Friday’s paper.

Mitchell stated: “I am now before the Bahamian people with clear eyes and I want them to see the whites of my eyes.  What Dion Foulkes has done is a blood libel from which there can be no coming back.”

Mitchell continued: “This blood libel by you [Dion Foulkes] has now set enmity between me and your house.  I take it personally and will deal with you accordingly.  There will be no retreat and no surrender.  You can take that to the bank.”

Mitchell’s comments are not only a low point.  They are bizarre.  They have no place in political discourse.  They have violent connotations.

The term “blood libel” has a particular and terrible history.  It refers to the obscene accusation that a particular group murders others in order to use their blood for various rituals.  Often, the alleged victims are children.

What exactly does Mitchell mean when he says there will be enmity between his house and that of Foulkes?  Is Mitchell threatening violence?  Might this be a matter for the Royal Bahamas Police Force to investigate?

Mitchell should retract various elements of his remarks.  He should apologize to Foulkes.  Failure to do either of these will result in Mitchell doing permanent damage to his credibility.

The opposition must distance itself from Mitchell’s dangerous remarks.  The leader of the opposition should warn Mitchell that there is no place in our politics for talk of “blood libel” and “enmity between me and your house”.

Feb 21, 2012

thenassauguardian editorial

Caribbean Blog International

Who will win the 2012 general election? ...Based on a review of the candidates and the reconstituted constituencies, as of today, we believe that the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) will win 13 seats... the Free National Movement (FNM) will win 13 seats... the Democratic National Alliance (DNA) will win two seats... and 10 seats are toss ups

Who will win the next general election?

By Philip C. Galanis

(Author’s note: The general content of this column was presented by the author in an address to the Rotary Club of West Nassau at Graycliff Restaurant on Thursday, February 9, 2012.)

 

This week, as we rapidly approach the general election, we would like to Consider This...who will win the next general election?

Our comments are framed in the context of where we presently stand and our election forecasts will be amended before the general election, much like the frequently updated hurricane predictions we get each year.

For now, however, we believe that the elections are the PLP’s to lose.  There are easily verifiable facts that support the premise that the PLP should win.  They include:

1. The unsubstantiated claims by the FNM that, during its term in office, the PLP had its hands in the cookie jar.  To date, not one iota of credible evidence has been presented by anyone to support that claim.  A reasonable observer could therefore draw the conclusion that either there is no evidence to support this claim or that the accusations could affect other persons the government does not want to implicate.  These assertions suggest an advantage for the PLP because it seems to imply that the leader of the FNM is desperately reverting to innuendos and speculation left over from the 2007 campaign that he knows he still cannot – or will not – substantiate.

2. The PLP is fielding impressive candidates.  With few exceptions, the PLP candidates are untainted and scandal-free, so to paint the entire party with a scandalous brush no longer applies.

3. We should not lose sight of the fact that the FNM also has several persons who are not running again.  Can it be that Hubert Ingraham believes that the FNM cannot withstand the scrutiny and standard of integrity to which he is holding the PLP?  If there is a debate on scandals, there are some in the FNM who would be found wanting and we submit that Ingraham prefers not opening that Pandora’s box.

4. Ingraham’s autocratic and bellicose leadership style has grown tiresome.  He is a one-man band, whose approach is: his way or the highway.  Bahamians are tired of that leadership style, especially young Bahamians who are fast becoming the deciding factors in any general election.

5. The FNM has not introduced any major new projects since assuming office and has completed projects that were conceived, or started, by the PLP.

6. The rise of the national debt to a record $4.2 billion, an increase of $1.2 billion, or 40 percent, in five years.  The consequences of this are enormous and far-reaching, with the burden of debt stretching generationally.

7. Crime is at an all-time high with murder records in four of the last five years, topped by 127 murders in 2011 and 14 so far for 2012.

8. According to the Department of Statistics November Labour Force and Household Income Survey, the country’s unemployment rate is 15.9 percent.  New Providence’s unemployment rate of 15.1 percent and Grand Bahama’s 21.2 percent are abysmal.  Even more disconcerting is that youth unemployment has increased to a staggering 34 percent.

9. Home foreclosures are at record levels.  Even The Bahamas Mortgage Corporation has witnessed unprecedented foreclosures.

10. Thousands of Bahamians cannot afford to keep their electricity connected because they just don’t have the money to do so, sometimes having to choose feeding their families in the dark instead of going hungry with the lights on.  And some families can’t afford either.

11. Special interest groups seem to be the chosen few who are benefiting since the Great Recession started in 2008.  The vast majority of Bahamians have not been so fortunate.  To paraphrase Dickens, these are the best of times for the few and the worst of times for the many.

12. There has been a record number of business closures during the last five years.

13. Individuals and businesses have tremendous difficulty in accessing urgently needed capital for start-up or expansion purposes.

14. The abominably executed roadworks have put hundreds of Bahamians out of business and many workers on the streets.

15. Too many foreigners have been the beneficiaries of the FNM government, at the cost of many unemployed Bahamians who are capable and willing to work.  Foreigners have benefited from the enormous increase in the national debt which Bahamians will have to repay for generations to come.

16. Illegal immigration is out of control with the government bereft of any plans for its containment.

17. The Grand Bahama economy is comatose with no relief in sight for the neglected residents of that island.

18. The misery index has skyrocketed and the rapidly expanding numbers of impoverished Bahamians have lost any hope of maintaining their expected standard of living.  The Bahamian middle-class is rapidly vanishing.

Registered voters

A record number of 154,391 voters registered as of February 3, 2012 compared to 150,684 in 2007.  We predict that a record number of persons will vote in 2012.  As we witnessed in 1967, 1992, 2002 and 2007, Bahamians have a history of voting governments out of office instead of voting for a party to become the government.  Bahamians have registered in such large numbers because they are discouraged, disillusioned and disappointed and want the government to know it by sending a definitive message via their ballots.

The DNA factor

The DNA will mount an impressive challenge to the established parties and in some cases will be spoilers by determining the outcome for candidates who would not likely win unless there are three candidates.

If the DNA wins several seats, we could end up with a coalition government, which last occurred when there were 38 seats in Parliament.

Predictions for the elections

Based on a review of the candidates and the reconstituted constituencies, as of today, we believe that the PLP will win 13 seats, the FNM will win 13 seats, the DNA will win two seats, and 10 seats are toss ups.

Closing the deal

If the PLP is going to win, it must do several things:

1. This election must not be fought on the PLP’s 2002 – 2007 record.  This is Ingraham’s game plan and the PLP must not allow him to frame the debate along these lines.

2. The PLP must contest this election by fighting on three premises:

a) The state of the Bahamian economy.  The PLP should ask the voter: “Are you better off today than you were in May 2007?”  We believe the honest reply will be a resounding no!

b) The PLP must clearly articulate its vision for the future.  Voters have grown weary of hearing about the accomplishments of the past and want to hear about future plans for the nation and for the people.  The PLP must make this a campaign about ideas and vision and not about leadership and personalities.

c) The PLP must showcase the impressive talent of its team and richness of its ideas.  Above all, the PLP must convince the Bahamian people that they will not allow any single individual to dictate the course of policy formulation as the great debate regarding the development of a modern Bahamas continues.

Conclusion

As the election approaches, we will refine our predictions and be more definitive about those toss up seats.

•Philip C. Galanis is the managing partner of HLB Galanis & Co., Chartered Accountants, Forensic & Litigation Support Services. He served 15 years in Parliament. Please send your comments to: pgalanis@gmail.com

Feb 13, 2012

thenassauguardian

Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham should be commended for concluding political boundary cuts early for the 2012 general election... The boundaries commission reported late in the process under the administration of Perry Christie in 2007 ...causing some confusion

The boundaries commission proposal

thenassauguardian editorial

Sources have confirmed that the governing Free National Movement (FNM) is proposing to reduce the number of seats in the House of Assembly to 38 – the constitutional minimum – for the next general election.  If the FNM sticks to this position, it would be a good thing.

We have long argued that there are too many seats in the current House (41) based on our population size (350,000).  If the constitutional barrier did not exist, it would be easier to cut that number further.  In Sir Lynden Pindling’s final election as prime minister in 1992 there were 49 seats in the House – an unjustifiable number.

The boundaries commission is expected to report to Parliament within a few weeks with its recommendations.  We are very near to a general election, one likely to be called for early 2012.  As of Monday, 136,615 people were registered to vote, according to the Parliamentary Registration Department.  It is estimated that approximately 160,000 people are eligible to vote.  With this announcement, and subsequent moves towards the election in the months to come, the rest of the electorate interested in voting will register, likely bring the total on the final voters’ list above the 150,684 voters who registered to vote in 2007.

If the governing side is able to finalize these cuts within the projected time frame, Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham should be commended for concluding this part of the electoral process early.  The boundaries commission reported late in the process under the administration of Perry Christie in 2007, causing some confusion.

Ingraham is likely aware of the recent record of ‘boundary cutters’ and he is not wasting time with this exercise which is essentially governed by the prime minister.  In the last four general elections, the prime minister who cut the boundaries lost three out of four times (1992, 2002 and 2007).  Too much significance is placed in this process in a modern Bahamas.

There are certain ethnic or historic communities that support parties for all manner of complex reasons.  For example the residents of the old Shirlea in Palmdale support the FNM and not the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP).  The residents of Englerston support the PLP and not the FNM.

However working class residents of the newer parts of New Providence, such as those residing in the southwestern part of the island, are less loyal.  Constituencies such as South Beach and Carmichael go back and forth.  These are swing areas and more and more of them are emerging.

It could be reasonably argued that there are currently 10 swing seats in the current configuration.  These voters are worrying about crime, the economy, the roadwork and leadership.  They are open to the best argument put forward by the best suitor.  A wise leader or party should seek to present the best message to this group rather than wasting time in dark rooms cutting boundaries.

The next step for the parties once the boundaries are finally set is the finalization of their candidate slates and the presentation of their manifestos.  Too often in Bahamian elections, manifestos come late and they are either too vague or too rambling.

Each party should put forth transformative ideas on crime, immigration and the economy in a coherent and digestible form.  Then, the candidates and parties should state their cases on the campaign trail.

For the voters, this is your time to select a legislature and an executive.  Take it seriously.  It is a mighty task.  At the minimum, we must all be engaged with the process and register to vote.  Scrutinize them carefully.  The men and women you chose to write the laws and govern will have extraordinary powers.

An election is nearly upon us.

Nov 09, 2011

thenassauguardian editorial

2012 General Election Predictions - Bahamas

Election predictions - part 1
By ADRIAN GIBSON
ajbahama@hotmail.com



AS ELECTION draweth nigh, it is anticipated that drama will surely accompany the impending showdown.  Indeed, as ham/turkey/dryer/washer season rolls around once more, I'm hopeful that a more edified electorate will reject political paternalism and demand change--demand that the substantive societal/national issues are addressed.

Thus far, whilst the FNM party seems slow-footed in announcing its slate of candidates, the electioneering has clearly begun as is evident by Opposition Leader Perry Christie and his Deputy's (Philip Davis) flurry of Family Island trips conducting what they refer to as a listening tour.

Frankly, as the electoral clock ticks away, there are a few sitting Members of Parliament who have virtually fallen off a cliff and have literally disappeared in their constituencies whilst others are visionless and/or have adopted an attitude of entitlement and intolerance.  Undoubtedly, there will be fits of hysteria and much whimpering following this electoral cycle.  There are quite a number of politicians who are said to be on the endangered species list--marching onward toward the political gallows.

It is expected that the newly-constituted Boundaries Commission will redraw some constituency boundaries using recent census and voter registration data to determine population shifts and, frankly, the favourable cuts for electoral success.

Notably, the FNM must also be concerned about its weakening presence in Grand Bahama which continues to suffer immense economic woes.

That said, I've decided to don my monk's garb and attempt to read the political tea leaves, making preliminary electoral projections relative to the political odds of the purported candidates contesting seats in the upcoming elections.  One must be mindful that this preliminary tally--to be later followed up--comes as ratifications and candidate selection is ongoing and, moreover, boundaries have yet to be cut.

Mano-a-mano, for Dr Hubert Minnis (FNM) the electoral race against opponent Jerome Gomez (PLP) will be like running against a cupcake.  Depending on how far Dr Minnis outruns him at the polls--and it seems that the gap will be wide--Mr Gomez may need a powerful telescope to even see his opponent.

The doctor has been a stellar MP and a smooth political salesman who actually delivers.  His challenger is likely to be politically manhandled in a horrifying loss that will expose him--politically--as a paper tiger.

Annihilate

PLP MP Obie Wilchcombe will politically annihilate purported FNM candidate Jeff Butler. Wilchcombe, an oratorically-gifted Parliamentarian, has been a superb MP and is likely to jettison Mr Butler--a grocery store owner--to the political dustbin.

PLP candidate Dr Danny Johnson is likely to be shell-shocked and in denial after being KO'd by Desmond Bannister in the Carmichael constituency.  It is anticipated that Dr Johnson--son of the late MP Oscar Johnson, brother of former House Speaker Italia Johnson and son-in-law of the late former PM Sir Lynden Pindling--will mobilize the PLP's campaign machinery/resources in the area.  That said, Dr Johnson is likely to have recurring nightmares following this election episode.

Contrary to recent speculation, Mr Bannister is set to run in Carmichael again although reliable sources inform me that due to purported variations of the electoral map-- that would be an attempt to cut-out strong polling divisions to save the politically unpopular Charles Maynard's seat--he considered a run in his home town, North Andros.

The reality is that if Mr Bannister--a strong candidate--loses, for the FNM, the domino effect would probably afflict the entire Southwestern area.  Mr Bannister's electoral outcome could potentially coincide with the outcome of neighbouring seats.  That said, he's expected to at least win his seat.

Former MP Leslie "Potcake" Miller will politically clobber incumbent Sidney Collie in Blue Hills.

This race is set to be a carnivorous affair. Constituents assert that Mr Collie has been a resounding disappointment, malignantly neglecting his constituency and performing abysmally.

Any expectancy of Mr Collie winning his seat is comparable to waiting for VAT 19 (liquor) to turn 20!

Naturally, both parties concede certain seats--for e.g. Long Island (usually FNM) and Englerston (traditionally PLP)--offering second tier candidates who are considered to be sacrificial lambs who make up the party's frontline numbers.

That said, the race for the Long Island/Ragged Island yields an exploitable mismatch as incumbent Larry Cartwright faces off against PLP newcomer Alex Storr--son of businessman Henry F Storr. Unfortunately for him, in Long Island, Mr Storr will suffer a humiliating loss.

Branville McCartney, depending on his political decisions, could likely retain his Bamboo Town seat.

As an FNM, and perhaps even if Mr McCartney becomes an independent, he would be a strong and favoured contender.  However, if he joins a new party, he will suffer a political death.

Currently, Mr McCartney is in a very critical position politically, however he must rid himself of any notion that its normal to be "half-pregnant"--that is, either he's with the FNM or he's not.

Will Mr McCartney's move happen during the BTC debate?  Were his recent comments/actions a precursor to what his true intentions are, that is, to separate himself from the pack and portray himself as a man with the gumption to stand against Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham?  Is his decision predicated upon the position he takes with the BTC debate?  In the wake of the Prime Minister's recent remarks relative to a snap election if all FNM MPs do not support the BTC sale in Parliament, is the ground now loosening under Mr McCartney?

I've been informed that the Clifton constituency will no longer exist.  Moreover, as a result of this constituency being eliminated, I'm told that incumbent MP Kendal Wright will be offered a nomination to contest the Golden Gates seat.  I'm told that because Mr Wright was raised in the Sunshine Park area of the constituency, he should be a "natural fit" to challenge incumbent MP Shane Gibson.  Frankly, barring any other happenings, Wright--who is an uninspiring candidate--will lose to Shane Gibson, who is a political powerhouse in the area and has a diehard support base.

The MICAL constituency is being divided into the Inagua and Mayaguana constituency and Acklins, Crooked Island and Long Cay, respectively.

FNM Senator Dion "The Bruiser" Foulkes is set to triumph over his challenger in the new Inagua and Mayaguana constituency.

Nomination

I was told that the likely forerunner for the FNM nomination in Acklins, Crooked Island and Long Cay was Johnley Ferguson.  However, that appears to be a moot point now that Mr Ferguson has signed a two year contract as a consultant with the Department of Lands and Surveys.  Incumbent Alfred Gray is likely to put a shellacking on his opponent.

South Andros MP Picewell Forbes will be wielding a big, electoral tamarind switch for FNM challenger and COB lecturer Zendal Forbes.  Although Picewell Forbers may encounter some difficulties if former MP Whitney Bastian nominates as an independent candidate, he's expected to retain the seat with Mr Z Forbes coming a distant third as an "also-ran" candidate.

FNM insiders assert that Carl Bethel has worn-out his welcome in Sea Breeze.  However, his uncertain political fortune is dependent upon the candidate that the PLP settles on running against Mr Bethel.

Of late, Hope Strachan--Bethel's strongest challenger--has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Fort Charlotte MP Alfred Sears who has announced that he will not seek re-election.

However, if Ms Strachan remains in Sea Breeze, Carl Bethel will suffer a shellacking.

In 2007, Ms Strachan lost by 60-plus votes after campaigning in the constituency for a mere six weeks.

Mr Bethel appears out of touch with the electorate and, unfortunately, has a massive risk factor concerning his candidacy--that is, the perception that he's arrogant and egotistical.

Moreover, another scenario discussed is the possible nomination of lawyer Myles Laroda in Sea Breeze, apparently the PLP's compromise for snubbing him in South Beach. Frankly, Laroda would be defeated by Bethel.  The PLP's best chance of capturing that seat is to leave Hope Strachan as the nominee.  No doubt, the PLP would be smart to smack down any inkling to move Ms Strachan to the other side of town.

The Fort Charlotte district--no longer being contested by PLP MP Alfred Sears--should be a political duel.

Sources assert that the boundaries will extend further into Dr Minnis' Killarney constituency to facilitate a successful run by FNM candidate Vincent Vanderpool Wallace.

I'm also informed that the recently departed former NDP leader (now PLP) Dr Andre Rollins is also vying for the nod in Fort Charlotte.  There are those who argue that Dr Rollins--a political journeyman--lacks the political capital to win a contest.  The race for Fort Charlotte could go either way.

Brent Symonette will retain the St Annes seat. Mr Symonette, who won nearly 64 per cent of the votes cast in his constituency in the last general election, will handily dispatch any challengers (said to be Billy Nottage or another applicant).

Loretta Butler-Turner will banish her challenger to the political wilderness and roar down victory lane in the Montagu constituency.

Mrs Butler-Turner won by a margin of more than 68 per cent of the total votes cast in her constituency during the last general election--the largest margin that year.

FNM nominee for St Cecilia Karen Shepherd--the former president of the Women's Association--will be a victim of circumstance.  In a traditionally PLP stronghold, Ms Shepherd is a rookie politician whose candidacy reminds me of a wilting candle.

I'm informed that Ms Shepherd requested to run in St Cecilia since her father James Shepherd--a member of the Dissident Eight--once represented the area.

However, from the looks of things, Ms Shepherd could perhaps begin writing her biography, with it perhaps reading "I also ran in St Cecilia, etcetera" and being filled out during her lifetime.

Glenys Hanna-Martin has a strong political wind at her back in the Englerston constituency.  The constituency is also a traditional PLP stronghold.

March 18, 2011

2012 General Election Predictions (Part 2) - Bahamas

tribune242