The PLP Lucky Day - September 16, 2021

The PLP simply lucked out on General Election Day - 2021

By Dennis Dames

I heard the now-Prime Minister, Philip Brave Davis repeat the false accusation that former Prime Minister Dr. Hubert Minnis suppressed voters by calling an early general election – and hence not allowing new voters to register, and existing voters who moved into other constituencies over six months to transfer accordingly.

This is the same Mr. Davis who was calling frantically and at every turn for Minnis to ring the bell, from early 2020!

When Minnis prorogued the House of Assembly and and subsequently dissolved it sometime in August 2021, the only prevailing question on my mind was: did the PLP do its homework in terms of adding new potential party supporters to the national voters register?

This is why I took a conscious break from writing during the 2021 campaign, Mr. Davis. I was waiting on the results of the general election to give me the answer to that burning question in my mind.

Lo and behold, the question was answered; only about 65% of the registered voters participated.  It is perhaps the lowest voter turnout ever - in the history of Bahamian general elections.

Brave Davis and the PLP failed to mount an energetic national voter registration and transfer campaign leading up to the general election.

That’s why Mr. Davis, now PM Davis, is still crying about his fake claim of voter suppression in The Bahamas by Minnis.

Prime Minister Davis and the PLP simply lucked out or dodged the bullet on Election Day 2021, and won without trying, in my humble opinion.

The losers of the next general election in The Bahamas

By Dennis Dames



Who’s going to lose the next general election in our country – The Bahamas? We, the Bahamian people, as usual.

There is no political party out there that’s up to the challenge of moving our nation out of the grips of omnipresent poverty, widespread illiteracy, rampant crime, the pervasive underground economy, and economic stagnation.

The PLP and FNM have demonstrated over and over again in government – that they are simply executive taxers, borrowers and spenders. They only want to get control of the cookie jar once more, so that they can continue their regular lovers, family and friends feast – while many more of us join the unemployed and underemployed band, the hunger line, the default payment society, and the – may God help us prayer.

FNM and PLP leaders have shown us their wicked colours a long time ago, but we still look forward with great enthusiasm – to screwing ourselves all over again at the next polls. It’s like stupidity on steroids. We love punishment and the shit end of the stick; and the politicians are always delighted to swing us again – one more time.

I have noticed the misguided passions of the yobbish PLP and FNM fans – and cheerleaders on social media. We are stupidly blind and politically careless about our future. We don’t know Brave Davis yet, or Fred Mitchell, Glenys Hanna Martin, Obie Wilchcombe, Dr Hubert Minnis, Carl Bethel, Dion Foulkes, et al?

What could those political dead weights do for The Bahamas and Bahamian people at this juncture of our existence as a free nation and people? They grew up in the corrupt PLP and FNM. They have already executively served in the various corrupt PLP and FNM regimes over the past few decades, and all we got from their respective governments are more public debt, more crime, more unemployment, more hunger and suffering, a broken education system, a failing health care infrastructure, and an absolutely corrupt status quo.

So, who will lose the next general election in The Bahamas again? We, the Bahamian people will – if we don’t collectively resolve to hold the next Bahamian government’s feet to the fire – for the benefit of a truly better, prosperous and more competitive Bahamas and Bahamian people in the 21st century.

The peaceful election of May 7 ...and the quick and orderly selection of a new opposition leader ...demonstrate that the Bahamian democracy, despite our many problems as a country ...is in decent shape

The new opposition leader

thenassauguardian editorial

The 2012 general election was a moment of change.  It began the era of new political leaders who were not members of Sir Lynden Pindling’s Cabinet.

Hubert Ingraham lost the election.  So he went first.  Perry Christie’s time as a leader is too nearing an end.  He will be the last of Sir Lynden’s direct protégés to be prime minister.

Last night, the FNM elected its new leader in Parliament, Dr. Hubert Minnis, who will serve as the leader of the opposition.  Dr. Minnis is an obstetrician and gynecologist and a businessman.  He was first elected to the House of Assembly in 2007 for the Killarney constituency and was reelected to that seat on Monday.  Dr. Minnis is one of only three Free National Movement (FNM) members to win a seat in New Providence.

The new opposition leader has the reputation of being a hard worker as an MP and is liked and respected by FNMs, and quite a few supporters of the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP).  His hardest task will be convincing FNMs that the world did not come to an end on Monday.  And, it did not.

The FNM won about 42 percent of the vote.  That’s not bad.  If 200 votes per constituency here and there swung the other way, the FNM would be the government.

The FNM has to analyze why it lost.  It must do research, real scientific research and not “the boys” sitting in a restaurant talking, to determine what happened.  When that is known, the party can begin to craft a message.

Dr. Minnis came out swinging last night at FNM headquarters.  He said one of his first tasks as opposition leader is to investigate claims of victimization by the PLP.

“We're going to look at everything they do,” he said.

“I’ve already been informed that individuals, Bahamians...who have had contracts to build houses and do other things within this Bahamas, have already had their contracts removed.

“They’ve not been in office more than two days yet and they have already started victimizing Bahamians, yet they say Bahamians first.  So we will aggressively pursue that and other matters we’ve heard of.”

Dr. Minnis is doing what an opposition leader should do.  He is opposing and asking questions regarding the conduct of the government.  If other FNMs rise from the bed of sorrow and assist the new opposition leader, the party may bounce back quicker than expected.

The FNM will have a leadership contest at the end of this month.  At this stage and with this appointment by the party, Dr. Minnis is the frontrunner to replace Ingraham who has already tendered his resignation, which will take effect at the convention.

The peaceful election of May 7 and the quick and orderly selection of a new opposition leader demonstrate that the Bahamian democracy, despite our many problems as a country, is in decent shape.

May 10, 2012

thenassauguardian editorial

Caribbean Blog International

If we want to encourage the best and the brightest citizens to enter into the elective political arena... we should seek to eliminate the observation of U.S. Representative Lee Hamilton that: “Elections are more often bought than won”

Campaign financing: A better way

Consider this

By Philip C. Galanis

“We need real campaign finance reform to loosen the grip of special interests on politics." - Tom Daschle

 

Every five years around election time, incessant lip service is paid to campaign financing.  It can only be lip service because after the ballots have been cast, counted and catalogued, the notion of campaign finance reform retires to hibernation – that is, until the next general election.  Therefore, this week, we would like to Consider This…what practical approaches can we realistically take regarding how we finance political campaigns in The Bahamas?

Unquestionably, politics has become an extremely expensive exercise.  When one considers the cost of political rallies, paraphernalia, including T-shirts and other garments now available, flags, posters, signage, printing of flyers, advertisements, including newspaper, radio and television broadcasts and commercials, the cost is staggering.  Let’s not forget the direct cost of personnel employed by political parties; the cost of constituency offices, sometimes four or five, particularly in the Family Islands; the cost of electricity, water, and telephones; the cost of food and beverages; of political consultants; and the printing of party platforms.  When these and other costs are considered, the real cost of staging a general election could very easily cost $250,000 per constituency or nearly $10 million per party.  So how are political parties expected to finance such a mammoth undertaking?

Using the public purse

It has become commonplace for the government of the day to use the power of the public purse to significantly finance its party’s political campaign.  We observed this practice when the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) was in power; we witnessed it in the by-election in Elizabeth two years ago; and we are seeing it again in the current general election.  While this has been a common practice, the Free National Movement (FNM) government seems to have taken this phenomenon to new heights.

Shortly after announcing the general election of 2012, the government launched a record contract signing marathon.  The $12 million contract for the construction of a new clinic in North Abaco and a multimillion-dollar contract for a new hospital in Exuma are a few examples of this.

Last weekend, amidst great public fanfare at police headquarters, the prime minister awarded $1 million to charitable organizations.  Ironically, this is the same government that – only one year earlier – reduced the government’s subvention to such organizations during the annual budget debate in the House of Assembly.  This is the same government that discontinued the extremely effective YEAST program that provided a positive prototype for young Bahamian men at risk and the same government that canceled the effective and internationally celebrated urban renewal program established by the PLP.

No matter which party is in power, an intelligent and discerning public should look askance at the government of the day exploiting and abusing the public purse in order to win votes after elections have been called.

Campaign contributions

In The Bahamas, political campaigns are predominantly financed by contributions from persons, companies, and organizations that believe in the democratic process and want to ensure that the message of the political party that they support is widely and successfully disseminated.

In the absence of campaign finance laws, there are no restrictions on who can contribute to a political party and how much they can donate.  Accordingly, anyone -- Bahamians and foreigners – can contribute any amount to anyone at any time without any accountability whatsoever.  The real question that we must address for the future health of our democracy is whether this is a desirable practice?

It has become customary for political contributions to be made in private, sometimes on the condition of confidentiality and often in secrecy with only a select few members of the party knowledgeable regarding the source of the funds.

Campaign 2012 has seen a new development in political funding.  During the last few mass rallies, the prime minister has publicly appealed from the podium for campaign contributions, describing it as a further deepening of our democracy by allowing the public to become investors in his party.  While there is absolutely nothing wrong with this, it is unprecedented and uncharacteristic.  We have never before seen this prime minister – or any other for that matter – beg for money from a public podium.

It therefore begs the question: why has he done so now, during what he says is his last campaign?  He alluded to the answer to this question on Thursday past at a mass rally on R. M. Bailey Park when he said that he will not tolerate anyone in his Cabinet who has financially benefited from conflicts of interest.

We believe that he made this appeal for financial contributions because, while the FNM is still well-funded by those wealthy interest groups who support him in order to continue reaping his government’s largess, some of his traditional sources of funding are less generous than they have been in the past.  This is possibly because he has cut some of his more financially well-connected candidates for reasons already stated and reiterated again from that podium last Thursday in a purposefully vague but very revealing way.

Campaign finance reform

Clearly, as the prime minister is opening party funding up to the masses in ways never seen before, the time has come to enact campaign financing legislation.  There are several things that can be done in order to impose strict controls for campaign fund-raising, primarily to level the playing field and to minimize disparate levels of funding campaigns by the various political parties.  Campaign financing legislation should also establish disclosure requirements with respect to funding and spending in elections.

Such a law could introduce statutory limits on contributions by individuals, organizations and companies, which would remove the influence of big money from politics and should also prohibit foreign influences from invading the local political process.

There should also be limits on large potential donors to prevent them from gaining extraordinary political access or favorable legislation or other concessions in return for their contributions.  Campaign finance laws should also provide for the capping of such funding and for the disclosure of sources of campaign contributions and expenditures.  It should also limit or prohibit government contractors from making contributions with respect to such elections.

Campaign financing legislation could even provide for matching funds by the government for all the candidates in order to ensure that the playing field truly is level and to enhance clean elections.

Finally, in order to more vigilantly protect the public purse, the law should strictly prohibit a government from signing any new contracts after general or by-elections are called.

Conclusion

Campaigns will become more expensive as time progresses.  As we mature politically, we should seek to ensure that political parties operate on a level playing field and remove the barriers to participation in the democratic process because of a lack of funding.  If we want to encourage the best and the brightest citizens to enter into the elective political arena, we should seek to eliminate the observation of U.S. Representative Lee Hamilton that: “Elections are more often bought than won”.

 

Philip C. Galanis is the managing partner of HLB Galanis & Co., Chartered Accountants, Forensic & Litigation Support Services. He served 15 years in Parliament.  Please send your comments to: pgalanis@gmail.com

Apr 23, 2012

thenassauguardian

Caribbean Blog International

This 2012 general election, you should vote... so that whatever historic result is announced that night (or in the days after), you can say, “I helped do that”

Let's just vote

It’s time for Bahamians to make their decision on the next government of The Bahamas

By Brent Dean
Guardian Associate Editor
brentldean@nasguard.com

When I left St. Anne’s School in 2007 after voting in the St. Anne’s constituency election, I knew how I would vote at the next general election, whenever it would be called, if a certain scenario persisted.  The scenario I thought might continue has, and I will do in a few weeks what I thought I would do five years ago when I walked out of the voting booth.

For some voters the main issue or main issues are clearly defined. The rhetoric of campaigns cannot sway these voters away from fundamental ideals or an overwhelming concern.  So for some of us, the pre-election jockeying has not been as interesting as it has been to others.  We simply want to vote and see what the final result will be.

This is a landmark election for Bahamians.  We could make a man prime minster for 20 years; restore another man who is nearly 70 to office; or vote for a third party and make it a “permanent” part of our political process.  Of course, there is also the option that because there are three parties running in each constituency there might be no majority winner.

Though some play coy and suggest deciding on who to vote for is a complicated exercise, the choices are quite defined.  And barring a miraculous, new grandiose promise we all would have to think over, little else is likely to emerge that will move a large bloc of voters.  So rather than watching another constituency office opening, or seeing another TV ad or hearing one more wild accusation of corruption or malfeasance, it would be great if we could just hurry up and vote.

Those clear choices

This will be the largest voters’ register in Bahamian history.  There are already about 170,000 registered voters.  If it takes the full two months for an election to be called, who knows, there may be 180,000 people eligible to vote on Election Day.

Our choices are the Free National Movement (FNM) led by Hubert Ingraham; the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) led by Perry Christie; and the Democratic National Alliance (DNA) led by Branville McCartney.

For those who want to vote for a leader, you have seen Ingraham govern for 15 years and Christie for five years.  There is enough of a body of work there on each side for you to know what these men would do if given another chance to lead.  Few leaders change in the twilight of their careers.  Don’t vote for a leader assuming that he will be different than he was over the many years you observed him in public office.

If you think the country has done well under Ingraham’s rule and you like his policies and style, he’s your man.  If you think Christie was a much better executive during his five years in office than Ingraham ever was when he was PM, then go gold.

Evaluating McCartney, however, takes a little more effort.  He has not been a member of Parliament for five years.  He has not been a party leader for one year.  For those who choose him over the others I suspect the feeling exists that 20 years of Ingraham-Christie rule has been inadequate.  A vote for McCartney, therefore, is hopeful, rebellious and exploratory.

While a vote for Bran may be all those things, a wasted vote it is not.  There are no wasted votes in elections.  Each voter has a right to cast a ballot for the best option available to that voter, and in doing so the people collectively choose who leads, who follows and who will have to try again.  The objective of elections should not be just to be on the side of a winner, but rather for each of us to contribute our best opinions to selecting the best people to represent us as a governing side and as an opposition.

Now while some vote for leaders, others vote for candidates.  Here it is necessary to determine the person best able to advance the interests of the community at the national and local levels.  While there are only three people “seeking” the post of prime minister (I discount the marginal parties and their leaders from this calculation), in each constituency there will be three or more candidates.  The numerous independents and marginal parties offering at the election create a host of options for voters.

The unregistered and the non-voter

With all these options out there to vote for, there are still some people who are unregistered.  There are also some people who are registered who do not intend to vote.  Now, there are some people who do not vote for religious reasons.  Let’s exclude them from our discussion.

Of the others who are not casting ballots, there are individuals out there who are intellectually lazy.  Rather than spending the time considering the issues, or the records of the candidates or parties, or examining the policy positions of the various factions, this group just complains.

They say this leader is not good enough; that party is not good enough; nothing will change if I vote.  There are people in countries such as Cuba, China, North Korea and Zimbabwe who only dream of free, fair and consistent elections.  Lazy voters, those who won’t take time to make a decision as to who to vote for, do not realize the significance of the opportunity they have.

A little effort, a little maturity, taking a little time to get off the social network gossiping, could easily lead to a voting conclusion.  You don’t have to love the option to participate.  It is fine to pick the best of the bunch, as a person or group on the ballot will lead your country and make decisions to impact your life and those of the people you love.

Election night

When it is all said and done history will be made at our next poll.  One of our senior statesmen may be retired, or a young man and his new party may become historic figures.  For now, Christie, Ingraham and McCartney are moving around with the swagger of stud lions.  On election night, there is almost no scenario that would make all three of them happy.  One or two will likely be devastated.  One or two may not come out in public for some time.

This is a good thing.  Democracy works when the powerful need and fear regular people.  You will decide their fates.  They are almost finished promising and pleading.  What is to come is up to you.

With all power comes responsibility.  This election, you should vote so that whatever historic result is announced that night (or in the days after), you can say, “I helped do that”.

We have a beautiful country that has some problems at this time in its history.  That beautiful country needs you to help set it on a new course.

Mar 26, 2012

thenassauguardian

Caribbean Blog International

A reflection on the political retirees' class of 2012... following the 2012 general election

A reflection on political retirement

thenassauguardian editorial

The early months of 2012 have been dominated by the general election.  It will be the eighth general election in an independent Bahamas.  Of the seven we have had, the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) won four and the Free National Movement (FNM) won three.

But before a single vote is cast this time around, we will say goodbye to some long-serving politicians.  After the votes are counted we will say goodbye to even more of them.

For those who lose the nomination fights to come, and to those who lose the various constituency elections, a graceful exit would be a better conclusion to a long career than whining, complaining and hostility.

No one should assume that there is a career in politics.  What should happen is men and women with talents and successes should offer themselves for public service for a period.  The people then select the best of the best and those individuals should do their best to improve the community they serve.

No elected official should want to serve a lifetime in politics.  In fact, for talented and successful people there should be an urge to go back to the private sector or to private life.  So when that time comes, through the loss of an election or nomination fight, exhaustion or whatever other reason, saying goodbye should not be hard.

Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham seems to agree with this perspective.  He summed it up well in the last sitting of the House of Assembly for 2011 on December 13.

“My hope is that those who seek public office will consider it a duty and responsibility to serve and not to gain a personal advantage,” said Ingraham.

“Conversely, individuals should come to accept that not being elected to Parliament will not be a disadvantage.

“They can expect to be treated fairly whether in or out of office.  It is very important for a democracy to have as its underpinning that if you get elected and you are unelected that you can live in a society as any ordinary person.

“You can live [by] rules that are clearly established, that you can be employed, that your children can have access to whatever availabilities to society, and that no one will be out to get you because you have served in politics.

“And it is my hope that we will move along those lines in a more evident way.

“If we don’t evolve to that level, we will continue to produce governments with members who will fight tooth and nail to be in government because they fear being out of government.

“And you should never fear being out or in.  You ought to do the best you can while you are in and when you are out, you ought to feel like you can live a normal life and be bound by the same rules you put in place while you are in.”

Being able to depart graciously also sets a good example for future generations.  It demonstrates that power is something to be shared.  Countries that are at war or in a constant state of upheaval are in such states because powerful factions cannot share power.

The political system is also renewed when new minds enter.  Those who were born during the World War II years, and who were raised during the Cold War years, should now be seeking to leave politics, handing power over to those who came of age during the Internet years.

So for those who will be sent home from the political scene in 2012, be not afraid or saddened.  You were never supposed to be there forever.

Mar 24, 2012

thenassauguardian editorial

Caribbean Blog International

Bahamian voters expect more from the mainline press in terms of the key issues in this election... ...Will the national press rise to the occasion in terms of better political journalism and creative reporting of the 2012 general election?

Press coverage of election 2012

Front Porch

By Simon

So far, much of the coverage of the lead-up to the 2012 general election has been formulaic and insipid.  Most of the coverage has focused on the speeches at the opening of various constituency headquarters.

The speeches contain the typical red meat and thrust and parry one expects to hear at political rallies.  The press dutifully report the back and forth inclusive of the main points of the speeches particularly those of the prime minister and the leader of the opposition.  Yet, there is something missing.

Both of the major parties have spoken of the critical issues of the economy and crime.  While voters often enjoy the polemics and pageantry of election time, most can distinguish between electioneering and what the outcome of the election will mean in terms of policy and governance.

There is a famous quote that notes that while politicians campaign in poetry, they must govern in prose.  Poetry involves the rhetorical flourish of a campaign.  Prose is concerned with the hard work of governance and getting things done.

While Perry Christie’s strong suit may be the art of rhetoric, it is Hubert Ingraham who has excelled at the art of governance.  Hence, the overriding theme of the election is leadership.  The question in the end for voters is, after comparing the leadership of Perry Christie and Hubert Ingraham, who they believe can best lead in terms of the economy, crime and a complex of policy issues.

Useful

On the issue of crime, the Ingraham administration introduced a comprehensive crime agenda over the past five years including an omnibus package of crime legislation.  It would be a useful public service for the print and broadcast media to assess the details of the current government’s anti-crime measures.

The PLP has produced a booklet of its anti-crime measures and is running ads on the same.  The press should assess the details of the opposition’s approach to crime.  The press should also assess the anti-crime measures the PLP promised in its 2002 manifesto as well as the measures put in place by the Christie administration from 2002 to 2007.

As elections are about comparisons and choices, the press can assist voters by reporting how the anti-crime measures of the FNM and the PLP compare and contrast.  And, what of the record of both parties in terms of legislation enacted and policies introduced.

The press can do the same kind of comparisons and contrasts on the economy and a host of issues from land policy and immigration to healthcare and education.  This journal has editorialized that the opposition’s promise to double the national education budget is far-fetched and near-impossible.

The Nassau Guardian has also shown that the PLP’s claim to have produced 22,000 jobs from 2002 to 2007 is insupportable in terms of employment numbers produced by the Department of Statistics.

This journal also opined in the context of various programs proposed by the PLP:  “Coherent and plausible plans on crime and the economy actually do not need quirky names.  They simply need to work and have the will of a competent government behind them.”

This paper further noted: “When a party announces multiple named programs at every speaking engagement, and it does not explain how they would be paid for, who would lead them and if they have been fully planned out, that party could come across as less than serious.”

Proposals

The prime minister has also announced a number of new proposals that the FNM will introduce if it wins re-election.  These include a Sports Tourism Encouragement Act and a Summer Institute for boys leaving primary school for junior high.  Some enterprising reporter might be dispatched to find out more details about these proposals.

There has been some clamor for debates during the course of the upcoming electoral contest.  Why can’t such debates take place between representatives of the major parties sponsored by a media house such as The Nassau Guardian in collaboration with Cable 12?

One debate topic may be the economy and compare the approach of the PLP and the FNM on the global economic downturn as well as the future of the Bahamian economy.  Perhaps the Minister of State for Finance Zhivargo Laing can present for the FNM with Elizabeth MP Ryan Pinder, who has spoken repeatedly on economic issues, appearing for the PLP.

Independents and young voters tend to identify less with party labels and are not as interested in what might excite base voters.  The former voters are more influenced by the quality of leadership, a party’s record and realistic and creative proposals for the future.

Most voters have come to expect little from most talk radio shows and television chat shows in terms of in-depth and informed discussions of the issues.  Those programs are designed more to inflate and showcase the egos of their hosts.

Voters expect more from the mainline press in terms of the key issues in this election.  Will the national press rise to the occasion in terms of better political journalism and creative reporting of the 2012 general election?  Some attempts are being made in this direction.  Still, there is much work to be done.

 

• frontporchguardian@gmail.com

www.bahamapundit.com

Mar 06, 2012

thenassauguardian

Caribbean Blog International

...are there any ‘sexy’ or especially thought-provoking campaigns that should be more closely watched in the upcoming general election?

Sexy races to watch pt. 1

Consider this


By Philip C. Galanis

The three major political parties have named their entire rosters of 38 candidates for the upcoming general election, which, from all present indications, seems destined for the middle of April to early May.   That is, of course, unless the prime minister decides to irreverently ignore the Lenten season which runs from February 22 to April 8, 2012, something he did in 1997 when general elections were held on March 14.  On that occasion, the FNM won 34 seats to the PLP’s six, establishing the precedent to disregard the Lenten season for political expediency, with no disadvantage to the FNM.

This week we would like to Consider This…given the current compilation of candidates, are there any ‘sexy’ or especially thought-provoking campaigns that should be more closely watched in the upcoming skirmish?  We can think of several and suggest that those worth watching closely are Bamboo Town, Montagu, Fort Charlotte, Long Island, The Exumas and Ragged Island and both Andros seats.

Bamboo Town

Bamboo Town is perhaps the sexiest of all races and is shaping up to be perhaps the most interesting race to watch.  Absolutely none of the candidates now drafted will actually represent the party to which they initially belonged.  They are all transplants.  Branville McCartney, the leader of the newly-formed Democratic National Alliance (DNA) not long ago was a FNM minister.  The Progressive Liberal Party’s (PLP) standard bearer, Renward Wells, until recently, was the leader of the National Development Party (NDP) before joining and being nominated by the PLP.  Before recently joining the FNM, its candidate, Cassius Stuart, was a founding member and the leader of the Bahamas Democratic Movement which was formed in 1998.  Craig Butler, the independent candidate, was an officer of the PLP until recently being denied a nomination by his former party.  So, each of these candidates began his political career wearing other colors.

The person with the most to lose is Branville McCartney, because, as leader of the DNA, if he loses, by convention of the Westminster parliamentary system which we follow, he should resign as that party’s leader.  That scenario would be even more interesting if some of his fellow candidates win their seats and he does not.  Supposedly, the successful candidates, if any, would have to elect a new leader from those who are successful.  In this particular battle, McCartney must have calculated that his former FNM votes could quite likely be cannibalized by the FNM.

There are several important considerations here.  First, in the 2007 election, the PLP did not contest Bamboo Town.  In that election, as presently constituted, the FNM polled 1,261 votes as opposed to independent candidate Tennyson Wells’ 999 votes.  It is reasonable to assume that most of those were cast by PLP supporters who did not have a ‘horse’ in the race.  Secondly, in its present incarnation, Bamboo Town has six polling divisions that were previously in the Kennedy constituency.  In 2007, in those polling divisions, the PLP received 835 votes against the FNM’s 730.  Hence, again as presently constituted, the combined PLP/independent votes would have totaled 1,834 compared to the FNM’s 1,991.

The real test here will be how many of Bran’s FNM voters last time will support him this time around, and will Cassius be able to attract sufficient support to win or will he split the FNM vote which will then work to Renward’s advantage?  And, finally, how well will Craig Butler fare?  Bamboo Town will be the ‘mother of all races’ to watch in 2012.

Montagu

Montagu is also garnering intense interest.  This seat has always been represented by the FNM standard bearer.  The current candidates are Ben Albury (DNA), Richard Lightbourne (FNM), and Frank Smith (PLP).  The most amazing development in this constituency is that, while it is called Montagu, there have been significant changes.  Montagu is now comprised of 12 polling divisions from St. Thomas More, where last time the FNM and PLP polled 1,359 and 1,508 votes, respectively; five polling divisions from Montagu, where the FNM and PLP polled 1,086 and 330 votes, respectively; and one polling division from Marathon where the FNM and PLP polled 81 and 145 votes, respectively.  Based on the total votes cast in 2007, the FNM and PLP polled 2,526 and 1,983 votes, respectively, and assuming that all things remain equal, the FNM would appear to have a decided advantage by 543 votes.

However, Frank Smith has great personal appeal with an effective ground campaign and superlative ‘street smarts’, while Richard Lightbourne is generally perceived to be a lackluster candidate.  The spoiler factor here will be important because Ben Albury is also a very attractive candidate and will likely cannibalize FNM votes.  Despite the apparent FNM advantage here, this contest will have more to do with personal appeal and voter connectivity than brand loyalty.  This will be a fascinating race to follow.

Fort Charlotte

Fort Charlotte will be another very interesting race.  The veteran Zhivargo Laing (FNM), and newcomers Dr. Andre Rollins (PLP) and Mark Humes, chairman of the DNA, will contest that seat, which is presently represented by Alfred Sears (PLP).  This constituency is also now a composite of most of the polling divisions of Fort Charlotte (nine polling divisions or parts thereof), two polling divisions from Killarney and a part of Killarney polling division number two.  Based on the 2007 election results, as presently constituted, last time the FNM and PLP polled 1,637 and 1,700 votes, respectively.  These figures do not include the parts of the polling divisions that have been changed.

While this race should be won by the PLP it is too close to call particularly given the campaign experience of the FNM’s veteran candidate, albeit he was rejected in Fort Charlotte in 2002, versus the rookie factor of the PLP and DNA candidates.  Furthermore, it can be reasonably assumed that regardless of the reason for Zhivargo’s move from Marco City in Freeport to Fort Charlotte, Ingraham has made a calculated wager that he would like to ensure a victory for his “erstwhile son” – a victory that was questionable in Marco City.

Conclusion

The prime minister realizes that if he is to form the next government, he has to keep Bamboo Town and Montagu in the FNM win column and would like to increase his number by adding Fort Charlotte, particularly because he believes that he will lose ground in Grand Bahama given his government’s dismal performance there and that island’s anemic economic profile during the last five years.

Next week, we will review the prospects for the ‘sexy’ and significant races on Andros, on which the prime minister has publically declared he has set his sights, Long Island, and The Exumas and Ragged Island.

Jan 30, 2012

thenassauguardian

Sexy races to watch pt.2

Caribbean Blog International

This year in Bahamian politics - 2011: ... and in 2012... crime, the economy, the New Providence roadworks and leadership are likely to be the major issues debated during the general election campaign... The Bahamian electorate will decide if they want Perry Christie, Hubert Ingraham or Branville McCartney — that is, if a clear winner is chosen

An intriguing year in politics

Year in review 2011

By Brent Dean
Guardian Associate Editor
brentldean@nasguard.com

This year in politics has been a preparation for the year to come.  Next year men who have dedicated their lives to politics are preparing to fight for power, likely for the last time.

Hubert Ingraham and Perry Christie, leaders of the Free National Movement (FNM) and Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) respectively, are the main contenders.  Branville McCartney and his Democratic National Alliance (DNA) are making their first appearance.

In 2011, each political leader was faced with internal upset.  Sitting parliamentarians, potential candidates and political wannabes all expressed anger in the public sphere when it became evident that the end had come to their ambitions or careers.

A minister is fired

Kenneth Russell, MP for High Rock and former housing minister, sat next to Hubert Ingraham in the House of Assembly.  Up until November, he rigorously defended Ingraham, his leader, and the policies of his administration.

Then in December, that bond between the men was broken with Russell publicly calling Ingraham a ‘tyrant’ and a ‘dictator’ after being fired from Ingraham’s Cabinet.

“I worked with him a long time and this is the first time I have seen this negative side of him,” said Russell on December 9, the day he was fired.

“The prime minister was my friend.  In fact, we are related.  The same aunties and uncles he has in Cooper’s Town (Abaco), so do I.

“I don’t know why he turned this way, but I have no problem with it; it’s his choice to make.  Though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, the Lord is always with me.  And even though Ingraham would attempt to slay me, I still love him.”

Ingraham indicated Russell was fired for inappropriately discussing Cabinet business — a project for Grand Bahama that was rejected by Cabinet.  However, some political observers think Russell’s termination resulted from Ingraham’s desire not to run him in the next election and his public complaints about that decision.

Whatever the reason, Russell ends 2011 an outsider.  He will not be a candidate for Ingraham’s FNM.

Opposition party upset

Christie and McCartney had their share of public break-ups too over nominations.

In June, then PLP treasurer Craig Butler resigned his post and left the party because he could not secure a PLP nomination.

Butler sought the party nomination in the February 2010 Elizabeth by-election.  He was rejected.  He then tried for the PLP nomination for the old Kennedy constituency.  He was rejected again.

Butler has admitted past drug use.  The PLP, a party that has had to wrestle with embarrassing scandals in the past, would not budge on its opposition to Butler’s candidacy under its banner.  Butler has vowed to run as an independent.

While Butler left the party because he could not get a nomination, a former PLP colleague of his was forced to announce he would not run in the general election.

Vincent Peet, the North Andros and Berry Islands MP, on December 20 bowed out after an issue regarding $180,000 in client funds was made public in a series of Nassau Guardian stories.

“After much prayerful deliberation and after much consultation with constituents, colleagues, family and friends, including the esteemed leader of my party, Perry Christie, I have decided not to stand for re-election in the forthcoming general election,” Peet said in a statement.

“My decision in this regard is final and irreversible and I have informed my leader and the relevant councils of my party accordingly.  At this particular juncture of my life, I need to concentrate my attention and energy on my legal practice.”

Dr. Perry Gomez is to take Peet’s place as the PLP’s North Andros candidate.

DNA disputes

McCartney’s party revoked the nominations of two candidates, it said, for non-performance.

Former High Rock candidate Philip Thomas and former South Beach candidate Sammie Poitier, also known as Sammi Starr, were out at the end of November.

However, McCartney and Thomas gave different reasons as to why Thomas is no longer the candidate for High Rock.

Thomas claimed he was kicked out for disagreeing with McCartney, while McCartney claimed Thomas was not living up to the commitment he made to the party.

On December 5, McCartney denied reports that his party was falling apart after the break-up with Thomas and Poitier.

“It’s not falling apart at all; it’s growing every day and getting stronger and stronger,” he said.

“We’ve been in existence for six months, we’ve made history in six months and we have become a major party within a six-month period.”

Is the DNA real?

McCartney faced these political issues at year’s end.  His DNA party was launched May 12.  At his launch event at the Wyndham Nassau Resort on Cable Beach he called on Bahamians to “redefine the possible”.

“I truly believe that you are not here simply because you have nothing better to do, but because you believe that change is necessary, and you know, like I know, that our country is not the country we envisioned it to be,” he said.

McCartney hopes to take advantage of perceived dissatisfaction with the PLP and FNM.

In 2002, with Ingraham as leader and Tommy Turnquest as leader-elect, the FNM lost by a landslide margin to the PLP.  In 2007, with a growing economy, Christie’s PLP lost to the Ingraham-led FNM.  In 2012, Ingraham and Christie plan to return to the electorate as the leaders of their respective parties.

They present themselves at a time when the country has set four murder records in five years and the unemployment rate is above 13 percent.

McCartney thinks the Bahamian people now want a change.

Even if this is true, Bahamians are conservative voters.  Dr. Bernard Nottage was the leader of the Coalition for Democratic Reform (CDR) in 2002.  He was the sitting Member of Parliament for Kennedy at the time, having left the PLP.  In that election Dr. Nottage’s party only won two percent of the vote and he lost his seat.

History is not on McCartney’s side.

The stakes are high for the leaders

Ingraham and Christie have been at it, politically, for quite a while.  Both have been MPs since 1977.  Both were young ministers in Sir Lynden Pindling’s Cabinet.  Both served as leader of the opposition and as prime minister.

Christie will be 69 next year.  Ingraham will be 65.  These friends and adversaries have become so powerful in their respective parties that neither could be moved internally.  But, the years have taken their toll and most observers think that this is the last race for the historic duo — the winner becoming prime minister again and the loser going in to retirement.

For McCartney, the stakes are also high.  If his DNA does poorly and he loses his seat in the House, a promising career could be over.

Crime, the economy, the New Providence roadworks and leadership are likely to be the major issues debated during the campaign.  The voters will decide if they want Christie, Ingraham or McCartney — that is, if a clear winner is chosen.

The 2007 general election was decided by fewer than 4,000 votes and the 2010 Elizabeth by-election by only three votes after a court case.  The country has remained divided from the last general election and a third party makes the race more unpredictable.

If Ingraham wins again his political success will debatably rival his mentor Sir Lynden Pindling.  If Christie wins he would be able to complete an agenda he thinks was pulled from him too soon.  If McCartney wins, even just a few seats, Bahamian politics would change forever.

With 38 seats in play –—the boundaries commission cut the constituency number to the constitutional minimum — this battle will play out seat by seat in community after community.  As it should be, the people will decide the fates of these leaders and their parties.

Dec 28, 2011

thenassauguardian

Caribbean Blog International

...for those Bahamians who think there is no reasonable offering to vote for at the next general election - 2012, ...you should rest assured that there are many other ways to participate in the advancement and governance of The Bahamas

Does it matter if you vote?

thenassauguardian editorial

Interesting debates always emerge when the question is posed as to whether or not citizens living in democracies should feel obligated to vote.

Most democracies were fought for. People who campaigned for freedom, self-governance and civil rights were jailed; some were murdered; some were beaten and many others were victimized. Some of these fights were actual wars.

In this context, we all should take the vote seriously. It is not a right, but a gift fought for by those who came before us.

As we all sit and evaluate the political parties and independent candidates who will offer for public office in the run-up to the next general election, we should make every effort to determine if there is someone on the ballot good enough to vote for.

Those who do not think there is anyone good enough to vote for should consider entering the race or the political process.

But if the ballot is filled with poor candidates, what should a voter do?Should voters feel compelled to vote?

No, they should not. Voting is an important part of the democratic process. However, voting should not be confused with democracy. Democracy is about self-governance. As citizens, we have a responsibility to do this everyday not just every five years.

By working at a charity, providing assistance to the homeless, democracy is at work; by volunteering as a mentor at a school, democracy is at work; by raising an educated, hardworking law-abiding citizen, democracy is at work.

So for those who think there is no reasonable offering to vote for at the next general election, you should rest assured that there are many other ways to participate in the advancement and governance of The Bahamas.

A group of residents in a community can easily come together, approach their public school, and start an after-school literacy program for the children falling behind, for example.

Simple initiatives such as these, if done by many individuals or by many groups, can do much to change the lives of the disadvantaged and the soon-to-be lost.

Elections are important; voting is important. But if you think the mainstream political parties are pathetic and the independents are incompetent, do not distress. You can exercise your democratic power everyday by doing something to help build the community.

Nov 04, 2011

thenassauguardian editorial

Caribbean Blog International

Will the United States Embassy cables being published by The Nassau Guardian via WikiLeaks have an impact on how Bahamians vote in the upcoming general election?

WikiLeaks: An election issue?

thenassauguardian editorial


Within a year, Bahamians will again be voting for a government. The third non-consecutive term of the Free National Movement (FNM) in office is coming to an end. The general election campaign hasn’t officially started yet, but both the FNM and the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) have hosted sporadic rallies.

The economy, the crime problem and leadership are likely major issues to be discussed along the way. Reading some of the Bahamian blogs and websites, some seem to also wonder if the United States Embassy cables being published by The Nassau Guardian via WikiLeaks will have an impact on how Bahamians vote.

They should, as Bahamians should evaluate as much information as possible before making a decision on the party they will vote for. The times are serious. Irrational voting based on old family ties or tradition will not help advance the country from where it is to where we all want it to be.

The cables present a behind the scenes view of diplomacy in this country and also the opinions of our closest and most powerful friend, the United States. More specifically, they provide insight into how our leaders are perceived by the U.S. The analysis is raw and candid, as it was not meant for public consumption.

The Americans have interacted closely with our political leaders and ruling class for years. It is their job to get to know Bahamian power brokers as demonstrated by their interviews and conversations with FNM leader Hubert Ingraham and PLP leader Perry Christie. It is also their job to get to know the want to be power brokers, such as Cassius Stuart who had too much to say to an American official during the Elizabeth by-election.

The Americans have also worked closely with both parties and both prime ministers – Christie and Ingraham – during their terms in office. At times, as will be revealed in upcoming cables, the embassy officials and our leaders worked very closely together on issues of local and international significance.

Thus far, based on the cables published, Ingraham has come across as over-confident, competent and a little arrogant. Christie has come across as less than organized, a nice guy and indecisive. The Americans have perceived character traits in the men that Bahamians have too.

What the cables can offer to voters is the impression of a critic, the U.S., who has a major interest in The Bahamas. For that critic The Bahamas is important, as it is one of three countries bordering the U.S. Its friendship and partnership are very important to America, as Bahamian intransigence would lead to a massive spike in the amount of drugs and illegal migrants flowing into that country.

The cables present serious analysis from a serious partner. They are not gossip. They are meant to help the U.S. State Department set policy towards this country.

With The Bahamas still not clearly out of recession, a recession that began at the end of 2008, and a fourth homicide record in five years a near certainty, the cables will likely not be the main issue at the general election. However, they will make for some good reading over the next few months.

At the end of this process we suggest that our readers take another read of the volumes of material written by the Americans on the issues analyzed between 2003 and 2010.

Then, if there is a particular issue that piques your curiosity, we suggest questions should be asked to canvassing politicians during the campaign.

Jun 07, 2011

thenassauguardian editorial

Craig Butler will once again not run as a candidate for the PLP in the upcoming general election

Butler will not run as PLP candidate

tribune242


AFTER being passed over in the Elizabeth by-election last year, attorney Craig Butler will once again not run as a candidate for the PLP in the upcoming general election, The Tribune has been informed.

With a history of drug use that ended nearly 10 years ago, Mr Butler said that his past is continuing to haunt him to this day despite his "continued commitment and dedication" to the PLP.

According to Mr Butler, the party's leader Perry Christie has informed him outright that running him as a candidate in this election would be too much of an "embarrassment" for the PLP.

"Clearly, my party has demonstrated to me by their words that there is no room for me in the PLP as a Member of Parliament," Mr Butler said.

This "embarrassing past." Mr Butler said, was the same excuse used by the party to deny him the nomination in Elizabeth, despite the fact that he had already been working on the ground ahead of the area's current representative, Ryan Pinder.

"I have been forthright with people about my past. And the PLP has always prided itself on being the party of second chances, but for all the persons that the party looks like it will be running in the upcoming election, for me to be an embarrassment to them, I find that incredulous," Mr Butler said.

At this point, Mr Butler said he will quietly consider his future in the party - a statement that has raised concerns in some quarters of the PLP. Some PLPs reportedly believe that a plan has been set in motion for Mr Butler to join the governing FNM as their candidate for the Kennedy constituency.

However, attempts to reach Mr Butler for comment regarding this aspect of his political future were unsuccessful up until press time last night.

May 12, 2011

tribune242

Bahamas Blog International

2012 General Election Predictions (Part 2) - Bahamas

Election predictions - part 2
By ADRIAN GIBSON
ajbahama@hotmail.com




THE odds are stacked against Zhivargo Laing in Marco City in the next general election.

Frankly, the race in this constituency appears to be between two unpopular candidates. Mr Laing, who may yet again have to move to another constituency (similar to the constant relocation of former PLP MP Paul Adderley) is said to have worn-out his welcome in his constituency. Constituents have complained that Mr Laing is out of touch with public sentiment and have objected to being seen or addressed in a patronizing, condescending manner by any politician. Mr Laing's constituents have complained about an air of perceived arrogance and expressed an interest in having Mr Laing spend more time actually listening (genuinely) to their concerns. The Marco City MP is a banana peel away from slipping into the political abyss. PLP nominee Greg Moss (lawyer) is likely to defeat him.

Brensil Rolle, the Garden Hills MP, will likely defeat Dr Kendal Major. Mr Rolle is apparently quite popular on the ground and considering the population shifts in the constituency--due to the recent construction and sale of houses in newly constructed housing subdivisions--he may have the advantage in an electoral showdown.

Vincent Peet, the MP for North Andros has been relatively quiet of late. Mr Peet is likely to retain his seat.

Melanie Griffin will politically sucker punch FNM challenger Joshua Sears. I am told that the boundary cuts will favour Sears, extending Yamacraw further eastward into large chunks of Brent Symonette's St Annes' constituency. However, because there are also plans afoot to relocate Phenton Neymour to the Exuma constituency, Mr Sears' name has been bandied about as a likely replacement for Mr Neymour in South Beach.

Lacklustre

If Phenton Neymour contests the South Beach seat, his teeth "will be on edge" having tested the sour grapes of what's said to be an impending defeat. Mr Neymour lacks the political horsepower to recapture the seat, as many residents express displeasure with his lackluster representation.

However, if Mr Neymour runs in Exuma, he could possibly edge out incumbent PLP MP Anthony Moss. Mr Moss is said to be unpopular in the Exuma Cays and has rendered a performance that is purportedly the reason for much voter discontent. Black Point residents--the second largest polling division--claim to have not seen Mr Moss since the last general election. Noticeably, Mr Neymour has made frequent trips into the Exuma constituency of late. Even more, of late Mr Neymour has also dropped the moniker he used to describe his constituents in Parliament--"the kings and queens of South Beach"--giving one the impression that perhaps the underlying notion now is that the Royal family of South Beach are preparing to dismiss their servant.

That said, Neymour's entrance into the Exuma race will leave the constituency too close to call--for now.

Notably, if Joshua Sears contests the South Beach seat as the standard bearer for the FNM, he has a more favourable chance of defeating Nurses Union president Cleola Hamilton (PLP), who has already been described by some residents as "charmless."

The Fox Hill seat could go either way. I'm told that the boundary cuts will now incorporate a polling division--out of Montagu and near to Step Street--in hopes of assisting challenger Dr Jacintha Higgs (a lady who wears the most enrapturing outfits) in gaining a foothold on the constituency and rendering current MP Fred Mitchell a seatless wonder. By all accounts, Mr Mitchell has been a visible, working MP, thereby leaving his opponent with a long, tough journey to the polls. My electoral crystal ball could not yet reveal a likely winner in this contest.

Kenyatta Gibson, the bombastic-talking MP for Kennedy, is abandoning the constituency and running as the FNM's candidate in South Eleuthera. Although incumbent MP Oswald Ingraham is in his 70s, he could still vie for the seat or be replaced by one of eight applicants for the PLP nomination--a list that I am told includes local government chief councilor Hank Johnson.

Although Mr Gibson and his family purportedly have roots in the constituency, it is likely that he will be sent deeper into political oblivion following the next election. It appears that Mr Gibson walked the Parliamentary floor and will now be walking out of Parliament altogether!

Tommy Turnquest holds a slight edge over Arnold Forbes in the race for Mount Moriah. Although the Bahamas remains in a state of national "un-security", Mr Forbes' campaign may become anemic and lose traction due to reported business-related issues emanating from Canada.

Comeback

Bain and Grants Town is likely to remain in the PLP column, as Dr Bernard Nottage is expected to take out whoever the FNM nominee will be. At this juncture, party insiders inform me that the former area MP Gregory Williams is vying for the nomination in an attempt to make a political comeback; also reportedly seeking the nod is former candidate David Jordine and Rev CB Moss, who is said to be in talks with the FNM. Of course, Bain and Grants Town is a traditionally PLP seat.

PLP leader Perry Christie will most certainly humiliate his challenger in the Farm Road constituency.

The race for the Marathon constituency is setting up to be a slugfest. Of late, newcomer Jerome Fitzgerald has amped up his courtship of constituents by purchasing alarm systems and having them installed in their homes. Whilst incumbent Dr Earl Deveaux certainly has the upper hand, having spoken to constituents and political insiders from both of the major parties, I've concluded that the Marathon brawl is too close to call at this time.

The contest for North Eleuthera constituency--given the decision of House Speaker Alvin Smith not to stand for re-election--should be an exciting race to watch. Purported FNM candidate Theo Neilly--an airport manager and local government chief councilor--is slated to run against Spanish Wells native and fellow local government councilor Clay Sweeting. However, for the FNM, lawyer Richard Lightbourne's name has also been mentioned as a possible nominee. Here again, it's too far out to call this race, particularly since--at least on the national scene--both candidates are political neophytes. However, I am told that the contest for North Eleuthera is expected to be a costly affair, with lots of money changing hands.

The voters of Golden Isles will rebuke MP Charles Maynard in a runoff where challenger Michael Halkitis is expected to beat the incumbent MP like a piñata. A walloping could leave Mr Maynard having fits of post-election hysteria and, like the movie Sleepless in Seattle, he'll likely be Sleepless in Golden Isles.

During his term in office, Mr Maynard has struck me as a representative/minister who--unlike the movie--politically has no true grit.

With Kenyatta Gibson speedily running away to Eleuthera, the Kennedy seat will easily remain a PLP stronghold with newcomer Dion Smith trouncing all challengers.

PLP Deputy Leader and MP for Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador Philip "Brave" Davis will put a spanking on FNM challenger George Wilson. In the past, Mr Wilson unsuccessfully ran as an independent candidate in the same constituency.

There is also another angle that must be explored relative to Mr Davis' political future as he has been speculated as having an interest in relocating to the St Cecilia seat. PLP insiders inform me that if Mr Davis runs in St Cecilia, the party is likely to send former Police Commissioner BK Bonamy to vie for the Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador seat.

There is chatter that Verna Grant, FNM MP for Eight Mile Rock, is facing some serious opposition. Purportedly, Ms Grant is attempting to retain her nomination as former Senator Kay Forbes is said to be interested in displacing Ms Grant and running for the FNM in that seat. In what some say will be a tumultuous election season for her, Ms Grant is also expected to face vigorous challenges from potential PLP nominees such as Sandra Edgecombe (former principal at Eight Mile Rock High), Caleb Outten or a yet unnamed opponent. This time around, it appears that the polls could go either way.

High Rock MP Kenneth Russell (FNM) will rout the still unnamed PLP challenger in this largely FNM borough.

Lucaya MP Neko Grant will torpedo the electoral hopes of supposed PLP nominee Dr Lea Percentie.

The Pineridge seat is being contested by two five-star candidates. It is unfortunate that one of these men will have to politically cancel out the other.

Current MP Kwasi Thompson has been an outstanding representative, whilst challenger PLP Senator Dr Michael Darville--who has a medical practice in the constituency--also earned much praise from residents.

Frankly, the PLP should have nominated Dr Darville in the Marco City constituency, as he is not overwhelmingly favoured to beat Mr Thompson as opposed to the outright favourable rating in a race against Zhivargo Laing. That said, Dr Darville is a formidable candidate and, whilst Mr Thompson holds a slight edge at this time, the quality of the candidates vying for the voters support in this race could cause the pendulum to swing either way. This race will certainly be a nail biter, i.e. if Dr Darville is not transplanted to contest the Marco City seat.

PLP incumbent Frank Smith will face-off against likely FNM challenger Linda Treco in the St Thomas More constituency. By all accounts, Mr Smith has earned the ire of the Prime Minister, so it is expected that the full weight of the FNM's electoral machinery will be coming down upon him.

Reliable sources inform me that upcoming boundary cuts will place a portion of St Thomas More in Loretta Butler-Turner's Montagu constituency, arguing that because she won by more than 1000 votes in the last election, she can likely absorb some votes against her and still preserve a comfortable margin in another victorious run. Apparently, a portion of Fox Hill will likewise be absorbed into Brent Symonette's St Anne's constituency. I'm also told that Paradise Island will become a part of the new St Thomas More constituency.

Creditable

Pinewood, a PLP foothold, could once again return to the party's win column. Frankly, MP Byron Woodside has done a creditable job in the constituency. However, a loss may, among other factors, be due to changes within the voting block and the luck of the political draw as the constituency has had an extensive love affair with the PLP. The race for Pinewood will no doubt be close and quite competitive.

According to sources, the PLP intend to run attorney Damian Gomez in Pinewood.

Flip a coin and, quite similarly, the Elizabeth constituency can go either way although incumbent Ryan Pinder (PLP) is favoured--at this juncture--to retain his seat. That said, I've been clued-up by FNM insiders of the likely mapping out of a favourable boundary cut for challenger Dr Duane Sands--a cut which is set to incorporate "more FNM polling divisions" and cut-out a part of Elizabeth Estates.

Edison Key will retain his South Abaco seat.

Prime Minister and FNM leader Hubert Ingraham will crush all challengers--whether that is Ky Mills and/or Jackson McIntosh--in the race for the North Abaco seat. Frankly, the electoral hopes of Mr Ingraham's challengers are comparable to running in quick sand--struggling and sinking fast!

As we enter another general election season, Bahamians must begin to demand true and visionary leadership within their constituencies and on the national front.

The upcoming general election will certainly--as is seen every five years--be a political circus. Indeed, this will be a helluva election season, which will leave--upon its conclusion--more than a handful of sitting MPs and electoral hopefuls reaching for a crying towel.

March 19, 2011

2012 General Election Predictions (Part 1) - Bahamas

tribune242

Bahamas Blog International