Five key seats to 2012 victory
By PAUL G TURNQUEST
Chief Reporter
pturnquest@tribunemedia.net
THE 2012 general election will be determined by the results of five key constituencies, party insiders have predicted.
According to information gleaned from the recently revealed Boundaries Commission report, it is believed that a victory by either the PLP or the FNM can only come with a victory in what will be the new Elizabeth, Sea Breeze, Bamboo Town, Carmichael, and the as yet unnamed "constituency 21" in the South of New Providence.
Of the 38 seats being recommended by the Commission for the 2012 election, the PLP believe that they are poised to win 10 or 11 out of the 23 in New Providence, two out of the five in Grand Bahama, and possibly six out of the 10 seats in the Family Islands.
However, when it comes to these five "coin toss seats" in New Providence, party insiders said the results can go "either way".
As it currently stands, constituency 21, which will be created out of polling divisions from the old Golden Isles, South Beach, and Blue Hills constituencies will comprise of some 4020 voters. A look at the 2007 general election results of these respective polling divisions, which now make up Constituency 21, reveals a slight lead in the favour of the FNM with 1695 votes to the PLP's 1670.
The "new" Elizabeth, which essentially will encompass the old boundary lines of the 1997 Yamacraw constituency, shows from the 2007 election results that the FNM will yet again have a slight edge over the PLP having secured 1689 votes to the PLP's 1630.
Sea Breeze, although currently represented by the FNM's chairman Carl Bethel is being reported to be a seat that will be "up for grabs" come 2012. However, even PLP party officials have admitted that it is likely that this seat would not go to either the PLP or the FNM, but rather to the DNA's Chris Mortimer.
Bamboo Town, yet another seat that will be "up for grabs" is currently represented by the DNA's leader Branville McCartney, who is expected to face a "tremendous challenge" from both the PLP and the FNM.
As for Carmichael - currently represented by the FNM in its Minister of Education Desmond Bannister -- it is unknown who will return to carry the party's banner in the 2012 election as it is believed that Mr Bannister will be the party's next candidate for North Andros and the Berry Islands.
Yesterday, it was revealed that the Boundaries Commission had recommended that three seats should be cut from the current 41-member Parliament, bringing the new total for the 2012 general election to 38.
The seats proposed to be eliminated at that time were Eight Mile Rock, Kennedy, and Clifton. However it is understood that while the Kennedy constituency might remain, the constituency of Montagu and Englerston have been eliminated in New Providence to make way for larger inner-city seats, and a new seat (constituency 21) in the south of New Providence.
Speaking to The Tribune yesterday on the reports of the possibility of Kennedy's elimination, the area's current MP Kenyatta Gibson said that he generally had no comment as the reports are only "recommendations" at this time.
"However, notwithstanding that, I will run wherever my leader and my party decide for me to run in the next general election," Mr Gibson said.
Other changes to the current make-up of the constituencies show that drastic cuts have been made to many of the "inner city" areas, such as Farm Road and Centreville, Mount Moriah, and St Cecilia.
November 10, 2011
tribune242
A political blog about Bahamian politics in The Bahamas, Bahamian Politicans - and the entire Bahamas political lot. Bahamian Blogger Dennis Dames keeps you updated on the political news and views throughout the islands of The Bahamas without fear or favor. Bahamian Politicians and the Bahamian Political Arena: Updates one Post at a time on Bahamas Politics and Bahamas Politicans; and their local, regional and international policies and perspectives.
Showing posts with label Bahamas 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bahamas 2012. Show all posts
Friday, November 11, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham should be commended for concluding political boundary cuts early for the 2012 general election... The boundaries commission reported late in the process under the administration of Perry Christie in 2007 ...causing some confusion
The boundaries commission proposal
Sources have confirmed that the governing Free National Movement (FNM) is proposing to reduce the number of seats in the House of Assembly to 38 – the constitutional minimum – for the next general election. If the FNM sticks to this position, it would be a good thing.
We have long argued that there are too many seats in the current House (41) based on our population size (350,000). If the constitutional barrier did not exist, it would be easier to cut that number further. In Sir Lynden Pindling’s final election as prime minister in 1992 there were 49 seats in the House – an unjustifiable number.
The boundaries commission is expected to report to Parliament within a few weeks with its recommendations. We are very near to a general election, one likely to be called for early 2012. As of Monday, 136,615 people were registered to vote, according to the Parliamentary Registration Department. It is estimated that approximately 160,000 people are eligible to vote. With this announcement, and subsequent moves towards the election in the months to come, the rest of the electorate interested in voting will register, likely bring the total on the final voters’ list above the 150,684 voters who registered to vote in 2007.
If the governing side is able to finalize these cuts within the projected time frame, Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham should be commended for concluding this part of the electoral process early. The boundaries commission reported late in the process under the administration of Perry Christie in 2007, causing some confusion.
Ingraham is likely aware of the recent record of ‘boundary cutters’ and he is not wasting time with this exercise which is essentially governed by the prime minister. In the last four general elections, the prime minister who cut the boundaries lost three out of four times (1992, 2002 and 2007). Too much significance is placed in this process in a modern Bahamas.
There are certain ethnic or historic communities that support parties for all manner of complex reasons. For example the residents of the old Shirlea in Palmdale support the FNM and not the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP). The residents of Englerston support the PLP and not the FNM.
However working class residents of the newer parts of New Providence, such as those residing in the southwestern part of the island, are less loyal. Constituencies such as South Beach and Carmichael go back and forth. These are swing areas and more and more of them are emerging.
It could be reasonably argued that there are currently 10 swing seats in the current configuration. These voters are worrying about crime, the economy, the roadwork and leadership. They are open to the best argument put forward by the best suitor. A wise leader or party should seek to present the best message to this group rather than wasting time in dark rooms cutting boundaries.
The next step for the parties once the boundaries are finally set is the finalization of their candidate slates and the presentation of their manifestos. Too often in Bahamian elections, manifestos come late and they are either too vague or too rambling.
Each party should put forth transformative ideas on crime, immigration and the economy in a coherent and digestible form. Then, the candidates and parties should state their cases on the campaign trail.
For the voters, this is your time to select a legislature and an executive. Take it seriously. It is a mighty task. At the minimum, we must all be engaged with the process and register to vote. Scrutinize them carefully. The men and women you chose to write the laws and govern will have extraordinary powers.
An election is nearly upon us.
Nov 09, 2011
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