Perry Christie, the political hypocrite calls for an independent Boundaries Commission almost 10 (ten) years after the PLP - under his leadership - encouraged voters to vote against a referendum called by the Ingraham administration on 27 February, 2002... One of the questions had to do with whether an independent Boundaries Commission ought to be established in The Bahamas

Bethel dismisses Christie’s call for independent Boundaries Commission

By Candia Dames
Guardian News Editor
candia@nasguard.com

Free National Movement Chairman Carl Bethel has dismissed as idle talk former Prime Minister Perry Christie’s statement that the time has come for an independent Boundaries Commission.

Christie spoke of the need for an independent commission in an interview with The Nassau Guardian last week.

“I had the opportunity to put one in and didn’t, but there is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that our democracy has matured to the point where it is a major contradiction to have someone sit down in a room by themselves and draw a plan that impacts the future of a country, and not have that done in a transparent way,” said Christie, leader of the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP).

“...There is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that we have passed the time when it ought to have happened.

“Because of gamesmanship, [political leaders are] able to take advantage of what is really a glaring failure on the part of our democracy where [they] in a very candid way take advantage of this opportunity and this discretion to draft a map that they could just cherry pick and change things around.”

But Bethel said he doubts Christie was very serious about that suggestion.

“Opposition parties, sometimes it seems, say things that they never had any intention when they had the power and authority of doing, and make all sorts of promises,” he said.

“I think, Mr. Christie, if he was serious about what he now says, when he had his Constitutional Commission, would have at least looked at that question which he now raises.

“I do not believe that it is a serious suggestion on his part.  Obviously, it is not a matter that has been canvassed by him or his colleagues for very long.  I think it’s relating really to the moment.  It’s a comment made in the moment and not so much a considered, well thought out, much debated position.

“The Constitutional Commission under the former PLP government didn’t touch it, and it’s one thing to talk to hear yourself talk; it’s another thing to come with a well considered proposal.”

In 2002, Christie and the PLP encouraged voters to vote against a referendum called by the Ingraham administration.

One of the questions had to do with whether an independent Boundaries Commission ought to be established.

Fifty-seven thousand, two hundred and ninety-one people voted ‘no’ and 30,903 people voted ‘yes’.

“I’m not sure that we can accord too much credibility to what Mr. Christie may genuinely feel to be his position at this present time,” Bethel told The Nassau Guardian.

In the interview last week, Christie also accused the current administration of gerrymandering.

But Bethel also dismissed this charge.

“Oppositions always say that,” he said.  “That’s a stock phrase used by oppositions.

“When the PLP created the St. Anne’s Constituency during the last boundary revisions under Mr. Christie’s superintendence, the then opposition (FNM) felt that this was a classic case of gerrymandering because what was apparent to us is virtually as many FNM polling divisions in as many different constituencies had been pushed into this new entity called St. Anne’s, and that the consequence of doing that was to strengthen the Progressive Liberal Party’s hold on at least three constituencies: Yamacraw, Elizabeth and Fox Hill.

“And so in a sense it was a classic case, in our view, of getting three for the price of one, which by any calculation would amount to an exercise in gerrymandering.”

Bethel said there are principles that guide the Boundaries Commission, which is also known as the Constituencies Commission.

“Those principles are usually discussed among the members and agreed in general long before they actually sit down to address the specific questions of the boundaries,” Bethel said.

“One of those principles would be, for example, that the commission would be seeking to attain as near as possible equality in the number of registered voters in every constituency (depending on the island).”

The FNM chairman added, “What is clear and there is nothing that the opposition has been able to say to date — and they had to a lot to say about these boundary cuts —but there is nothing that they have been able to say to date that is able to cast any doubt upon the integrity of the adherence of the Boundaries Commission to the principle that all members, including opposition members, would have agreed at the beginning of the whole process.”

In three of the last four general elections, the party in power that cut the boundaries lost (1992, 2002 and 2007).

Nov 14, 2011

thenassauguardian

Caribbean Blog International

Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham should be commended for concluding political boundary cuts early for the 2012 general election... The boundaries commission reported late in the process under the administration of Perry Christie in 2007 ...causing some confusion

The boundaries commission proposal

thenassauguardian editorial

Sources have confirmed that the governing Free National Movement (FNM) is proposing to reduce the number of seats in the House of Assembly to 38 – the constitutional minimum – for the next general election.  If the FNM sticks to this position, it would be a good thing.

We have long argued that there are too many seats in the current House (41) based on our population size (350,000).  If the constitutional barrier did not exist, it would be easier to cut that number further.  In Sir Lynden Pindling’s final election as prime minister in 1992 there were 49 seats in the House – an unjustifiable number.

The boundaries commission is expected to report to Parliament within a few weeks with its recommendations.  We are very near to a general election, one likely to be called for early 2012.  As of Monday, 136,615 people were registered to vote, according to the Parliamentary Registration Department.  It is estimated that approximately 160,000 people are eligible to vote.  With this announcement, and subsequent moves towards the election in the months to come, the rest of the electorate interested in voting will register, likely bring the total on the final voters’ list above the 150,684 voters who registered to vote in 2007.

If the governing side is able to finalize these cuts within the projected time frame, Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham should be commended for concluding this part of the electoral process early.  The boundaries commission reported late in the process under the administration of Perry Christie in 2007, causing some confusion.

Ingraham is likely aware of the recent record of ‘boundary cutters’ and he is not wasting time with this exercise which is essentially governed by the prime minister.  In the last four general elections, the prime minister who cut the boundaries lost three out of four times (1992, 2002 and 2007).  Too much significance is placed in this process in a modern Bahamas.

There are certain ethnic or historic communities that support parties for all manner of complex reasons.  For example the residents of the old Shirlea in Palmdale support the FNM and not the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP).  The residents of Englerston support the PLP and not the FNM.

However working class residents of the newer parts of New Providence, such as those residing in the southwestern part of the island, are less loyal.  Constituencies such as South Beach and Carmichael go back and forth.  These are swing areas and more and more of them are emerging.

It could be reasonably argued that there are currently 10 swing seats in the current configuration.  These voters are worrying about crime, the economy, the roadwork and leadership.  They are open to the best argument put forward by the best suitor.  A wise leader or party should seek to present the best message to this group rather than wasting time in dark rooms cutting boundaries.

The next step for the parties once the boundaries are finally set is the finalization of their candidate slates and the presentation of their manifestos.  Too often in Bahamian elections, manifestos come late and they are either too vague or too rambling.

Each party should put forth transformative ideas on crime, immigration and the economy in a coherent and digestible form.  Then, the candidates and parties should state their cases on the campaign trail.

For the voters, this is your time to select a legislature and an executive.  Take it seriously.  It is a mighty task.  At the minimum, we must all be engaged with the process and register to vote.  Scrutinize them carefully.  The men and women you chose to write the laws and govern will have extraordinary powers.

An election is nearly upon us.

Nov 09, 2011

thenassauguardian editorial

PRIME Minister Hubert Ingraham will close the current voters' register sometime after June 2011... only those on the new register will be eligible to vote in the next general election

PM will close voters' register in June or July
By TANEKA THOMPSON
Tribune Staff Reporter
tthompson@tribunemedia.net



PRIME Minister Ingraham will close the current voters' register in June or July of this year - meaning that only those on the new register will be eligible to vote in the next election.

This move will give the Parliamentary Registrar more time to peruse the new voters' register. It will also allow the Parliamentary Registrar to give the Boundaries Commission a more accurate representation of the number of eligible voters in each constituency.

Once the current register is void, members of the Boundaries Commission will be appointed, the Prime Minister said.

"I can tell you this, sometime after June of this year I propose to cause the current register of voters to die - by that I mean to come to an end - which would mean only persons who are registered on the new register will be eligible to vote," said Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham.

"I've got to give 90 days notice of that. I'm now thinking of giving that notice sometime during the month of April, so sometime towards the end of June or July I intend to bring the current register to an end.

"The Boundaries Commission will be appointed after that."

When asked if elections will be called this year, Mr Ingraham quipped: "No man knows of the hour but one and he ain' talking."

March 26, 2011

tribune242

Bahamas Blog International

2012 General Election Predictions - Bahamas

Election predictions - part 1
By ADRIAN GIBSON
ajbahama@hotmail.com



AS ELECTION draweth nigh, it is anticipated that drama will surely accompany the impending showdown. Indeed, as ham/turkey/dryer/washer season rolls around once more, I'm hopeful that a more edified electorate will reject political paternalism and demand change--demand that the substantive societal/national issues are addressed.

Thus far, whilst the FNM party seems slow-footed in announcing its slate of candidates, the electioneering has clearly begun as is evident by Opposition Leader Perry Christie and his Deputy's (Philip Davis) flurry of Family Island trips conducting what they refer to as a listening tour.

Frankly, as the electoral clock ticks away, there are a few sitting Members of Parliament who have virtually fallen off a cliff and have literally disappeared in their constituencies whilst others are visionless and/or have adopted an attitude of entitlement and intolerance. Undoubtedly, there will be fits of hysteria and much whimpering following this electoral cycle. There are quite a number of politicians who are said to be on the endangered species list--marching onward toward the political gallows.

It is expected that the newly-constituted Boundaries Commission will redraw some constituency boundaries using recent census and voter registration data to determine population shifts and, frankly, the favourable cuts for electoral success.

Notably, the FNM must also be concerned about its weakening presence in Grand Bahama which continues to suffer immense economic woes.

That said, I've decided to don my monk's garb and attempt to read the political tea leaves, making preliminary electoral projections relative to the political odds of the purported candidates contesting seats in the upcoming elections. One must be mindful that this preliminary tally--to be later followed up--comes as ratifications and candidate selection is ongoing and, moreover, boundaries have yet to be cut.

Mano-a-mano, for Dr Hubert Minnis (FNM) the electoral race against opponent Jerome Gomez (PLP) will be like running against a cupcake. Depending on how far Dr Minnis outruns him at the polls--and it seems that the gap will be wide--Mr Gomez may need a powerful telescope to even see his opponent.

The doctor has been a stellar MP and a smooth political salesman who actually delivers. His challenger is likely to be politically manhandled in a horrifying loss that will expose him--politically--as a paper tiger.

Annihilate

PLP MP Obie Wilchcombe will politically annihilate purported FNM candidate Jeff Butler. Wilchcombe, an oratorically-gifted Parliamentarian, has been a superb MP and is likely to jettison Mr Butler--a grocery store owner--to the political dustbin.

PLP candidate Dr Danny Johnson is likely to be shell-shocked and in denial after being KO'd by Desmond Bannister in the Carmichael constituency. It is anticipated that Dr Johnson--son of the late MP Oscar Johnson, brother of former House Speaker Italia Johnson and son-in-law of the late former PM Sir Lynden Pindling--will mobilize the PLP's campaign machinery/resources in the area. That said, Dr Johnson is likely to have recurring nightmares following this election episode.

Contrary to recent speculation, Mr Bannister is set to run in Carmichael again although reliable sources inform me that due to purported variations of the electoral map-- that would be an attempt to cut-out strong polling divisions to save the politically unpopular Charles Maynard's seat--he considered a run in his home town, North Andros.

The reality is that if Mr Bannister--a strong candidate--loses, for the FNM, the domino effect would probably afflict the entire Southwestern area. Mr Bannister's electoral outcome could potentially coincide with the outcome of neighbouring seats. That said, he's expected to at least win his seat.

Former MP Leslie "Potcake" Miller will politically clobber incumbent Sidney Collie in Blue Hills.

This race is set to be a carnivorous affair. Constituents assert that Mr Collie has been a resounding disappointment, malignantly neglecting his constituency and performing abysmally.

Any expectancy of Mr Collie winning his seat is comparable to waiting for VAT 19 (liquor) to turn 20!

Naturally, both parties concede certain seats--for e.g. Long Island (usually FNM) and Englerston (traditionally PLP)--offering second tier candidates who are considered to be sacrificial lambs who make up the party's frontline numbers.

That said, the race for the Long Island/Ragged Island yields an exploitable mismatch as incumbent Larry Cartwright faces off against PLP newcomer Alex Storr--son of businessman Henry F Storr. Unfortunately for him, in Long Island, Mr Storr will suffer a humiliating loss.

Branville McCartney, depending on his political decisions, could likely retain his Bamboo Town seat.

As an FNM, and perhaps even if Mr McCartney becomes an independent, he would be a strong and favoured contender. However, if he joins a new party, he will suffer a political death.

Currently, Mr McCartney is in a very critical position politically, however he must rid himself of any notion that its normal to be "half-pregnant"--that is, either he's with the FNM or he's not.

Will Mr McCartney's move happen during the BTC debate? Were his recent comments/actions a precursor to what his true intentions are, that is, to separate himself from the pack and portray himself as a man with the gumption to stand against Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham? Is his decision predicated upon the position he takes with the BTC debate? In the wake of the Prime Minister's recent remarks relative to a snap election if all FNM MPs do not support the BTC sale in Parliament, is the ground now loosening under Mr McCartney?

I've been informed that the Clifton constituency will no longer exist. Moreover, as a result of this constituency being eliminated, I'm told that incumbent MP Kendal Wright will be offered a nomination to contest the Golden Gates seat. I'm told that because Mr Wright was raised in the Sunshine Park area of the constituency, he should be a "natural fit" to challenge incumbent MP Shane Gibson. Frankly, barring any other happenings, Wright--who is an uninspiring candidate--will lose to Shane Gibson, who is a political powerhouse in the area and has a diehard support base.

The MICAL constituency is being divided into the Inagua and Mayaguana constituency and Acklins, Crooked Island and Long Cay, respectively.

FNM Senator Dion "The Bruiser" Foulkes is set to triumph over his challenger in the new Inagua and Mayaguana constituency.

Nomination

I was told that the likely forerunner for the FNM nomination in Acklins, Crooked Island and Long Cay was Johnley Ferguson. However, that appears to be a moot point now that Mr Ferguson has signed a two year contract as a consultant with the Department of Lands and Surveys. Incumbent Alfred Gray is likely to put a shellacking on his opponent.

South Andros MP Picewell Forbes will be wielding a big, electoral tamarind switch for FNM challenger and COB lecturer Zendal Forbes. Although Picewell Forbers may encounter some difficulties if former MP Whitney Bastian nominates as an independent candidate, he's expected to retain the seat with Mr Z Forbes coming a distant third as an "also-ran" candidate.

FNM insiders assert that Carl Bethel has worn-out his welcome in Sea Breeze. However, his uncertain political fortune is dependent upon the candidate that the PLP settles on running against Mr Bethel.

Of late, Hope Strachan--Bethel's strongest challenger--has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Fort Charlotte MP Alfred Sears who has announced that he will not seek re-election.

However, if Ms Strachan remains in Sea Breeze, Carl Bethel will suffer a shellacking.

In 2007, Ms Strachan lost by 60-plus votes after campaigning in the constituency for a mere six weeks.

Mr Bethel appears out of touch with the electorate and, unfortunately, has a massive risk factor concerning his candidacy--that is, the perception that he's arrogant and egotistical.

Moreover, another scenario discussed is the possible nomination of lawyer Myles Laroda in Sea Breeze, apparently the PLP's compromise for snubbing him in South Beach. Frankly, Laroda would be defeated by Bethel. The PLP's best chance of capturing that seat is to leave Hope Strachan as the nominee. No doubt, the PLP would be smart to smack down any inkling to move Ms Strachan to the other side of town.

The Fort Charlotte district--no longer being contested by PLP MP Alfred Sears--should be a political duel.

Sources assert that the boundaries will extend further into Dr Minnis' Killarney constituency to facilitate a successful run by FNM candidate Vincent Vanderpool Wallace.

I'm also informed that the recently departed former NDP leader (now PLP) Dr Andre Rollins is also vying for the nod in Fort Charlotte. There are those who argue that Dr Rollins--a political journeyman--lacks the political capital to win a contest. The race for Fort Charlotte could go either way.

Brent Symonette will retain the St Annes seat. Mr Symonette, who won nearly 64 per cent of the votes cast in his constituency in the last general election, will handily dispatch any challengers (said to be Billy Nottage or another applicant).

Loretta Butler-Turner will banish her challenger to the political wilderness and roar down victory lane in the Montagu constituency.

Mrs Butler-Turner won by a margin of more than 68 per cent of the total votes cast in her constituency during the last general election--the largest margin that year.

FNM nominee for St Cecilia Karen Shepherd--the former president of the Women's Association--will be a victim of circumstance. In a traditionally PLP stronghold, Ms Shepherd is a rookie politician whose candidacy reminds me of a wilting candle.

I'm informed that Ms Shepherd requested to run in St Cecilia since her father James Shepherd--a member of the Dissident Eight--once represented the area.

However, from the looks of things, Ms Shepherd could perhaps begin writing her biography, with it perhaps reading "I also ran in St Cecilia, etcetera" and being filled out during her lifetime.

Glenys Hanna-Martin has a strong political wind at her back in the Englerston constituency. The constituency is also a traditional PLP stronghold.

March 18, 2011

2012 General Election Predictions (Part 2) - Bahamas

tribune242

Bahamas Blog International