The Bahamas nears " the ranks of 'Third World' nations via the rapid rise in the national debt... ...with an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report warning that our nation's 57.6 per cent debt-to-GDP ratio has passed the threshold at which it will act as "a drag" on its economic growth

Debt 'Pushing Bahamas' Deeper Into Third World


By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

THE Bahamas has "pushed ourselves further into" the ranks of 'Third World' nations via the rapid rise in the national debt, with an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report warning this nation's 57.6 per cent debt-to-GDP ratio has passed the threshold at which it will act as "a drag" on its economic growth.

James Smith, a former Central Bank governor and now-Ministry of Finance consultant, told Tribune Business that the Bahamas had "dug ourselves a hole" with a national debt projected to hit $4.613 billion by end-June 2012, adding that its fiscal woes were begin to resemble "more and more" those of its many troubled Caribbean neighbours.

As he acknowledged that it would be "very difficult" to get the Bahamas' fiscal deficit and national debt back on to a sustainable trajectory, Mr Smith's comments were given further credence by an IMF paper, published on Friday, which showed this nation's debt-to-GDP ratio was now likely to 'drag down' its economic growth.

The paper, Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence from the Caribbean, analysed the Bahamas and 12 other regional nations, and found that above a 55-56 per cent debt-to-GDP level, any further increase in that ratio would impede economic growth.

The Bahamas, which is projected to have a total debt-to-GDP ratio of 57.6 per cent by month's end, according to government statistics, has already breached that barrier.

"The main finding is that there exists a threshold debt to GDP (GDP) ratio of 55-56 per cent," the four authors of the IMF paper found. "Moreover, the debt dynamics begin changing well before this threshold is reached.

"Specifically, at debt levels lower than 30 per cent of GDP, increases in the debt-to-GDP ratio are associated with faster economic growth. However, as debt rises beyond 30 per cent, the effects on economic growth diminish rapidly.

"And, at debt levels reaching 55-56 per cent of GDP, the growth impacts switch from positive to negative. Thus, beyond this threshold, the debt becomes a drag on growth."

Tackling the rapid rate of increase in the Bahamas' fiscal deficit, projected to hit a record $550 million under the GFS measurement during the 2012-2013 fiscal year, and the national debt could arguably be the Christie administration's greatest challenge over the next five years.

But, beyond some revenue enhancement measures largely left in place by the former Ingraham administration, pledges of tax reform and efforts to get the private sector going, it has yet to lay out a clear strategy for containing the fiscal deficit and national debt.

"The trend is still very worrisome," Mr Smith conceded, "because it's very difficult once you've let the horse out of the barn. It's very difficult to get it back".

He argued that the projected $550 million fiscal deficit for 2012-2013 was largely "a catch up from all the expenditure that has taken place", meaning it has resulted from extra debt servicing and spending commitments made by the former Ingraham administration.

"You couldn't even roll it back," Mr Smith added. "If you stopped everything, it would be more costly and would put a brake on what little growth there is.

"There's going to be no quick turnaround, as the world economy is still sluggish. By and large we have dug a hole for ourselves."

The former finance minister and Central Bank governor told Tribune Business that it was "a fair assessment" to argue that the Bahamas' fiscal predicament was due more to spending increases, particularly on the Government's recurrent or fixed costs, as opposed to the revenue side of the equation.

"In the last year or so we seemingly outspent the fall off in revenues, and from a policy perspective we should have been holding back when we realised we were not emerging from recession, at least not at the pace the US was," Mr Smith said.

A report by the United Nations' Economic Commission for Latin America and Caribbean (ECLAC), released on Friday, blamed the Bahamas' 2010-2011 nominal fiscal deficit of 4.7 per cent on spending increases that outstripped a 10 per cent rise in revenues to a sum equivalent to 17.7 per cent of GDP.

"The improved revenue was offset by a substantial nominal rise in expenditure to 22.9 per cent of GDP," the ECLAC report noted.

"Current expenditure reflected a sharp increase in payments for goods and services, and higher debt interest payments as government borrowing mounted. Growth in capital expenditure more than doubled with major investments in road infrastructure and in the airport expansion project."

Mr Smith, meanwhile, told Tribune Business that the Bahamas effectively needed an 'out of the box' game changer, something not associated with its traditional industries, to reverse the decline.

"We need some kind of external something we didn't plan for to get us quickly out of this," he added. "The things that we can predict, nothing seems to give us the sufficient impetus that we need in the short-medium term.

"We're beginning to look more and more like the rest of the Caribbean," Mr Smith told Tribune Business, referring to the likes of Barbados, Jamaica and St Lucia, all with debt-to-GDP ratios of around - or above - 100 per cent.

"We've been trying to pull ourselves so hard out of the Third World, but seem to have pushed ourselves further in. It's really going to take a combined effort - the labour has got to become more productive, the investment support machinery has got to be more efficient. We've simply got to work a lot harder as a country. It's not business as usual."

The bulk of Bahamian GDP was derived from tourist spending, but Mr Smith questioned whether US visitors - who still account for over 80 per cent of stopovers - would return to pre-recession spending levels even if there was recovery at home.

"We don't have the level of tourist expenditure needed to support increased GDP growth," he added. "To the extent that we are using subsidies to the tourism sector in terms of assisting the hotel industry, the likes of Companion Fly Free, we are actually getting less spending per tourist dollar, as we are actually paying to get them here. We're not getting the same bang for the buck."

The authors of the IMF paper urged the Bahamas and others above the 55 per cent debt-to-GDP mark to "adopt policies that do not impede growth" by setting the ratio on a downward trend.

Acknowledging that it was difficult for the Caribbean to embark on fiscal consolidation, given the recession's hangover and high unemployment levels, the IMF paper urged governments to combine with the private sector to "present more innovative ideas, and rehash some of the current policies for the region:".

The authors, for instance, called for "greater progress" in sectors such as information technology and renewable energy.

June 18, 2012

Tribune242

Caribbean Blog International

The Government's own projections show its direct debt standing at 50.6 per cent of GDP, or $4.057 billion, as at end-June 2012... ...then increasing to $4.607 billion, or 54.5 per cent of GDP, by the close of the 2012-2013 fiscal year

National Debt To Exceed $5bn By Mid-2013



By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

THE Bahamas' national debt will breach the $5 billion mark before the end of the upcoming 2012-2013 fiscal year, the Government's Budget projections disclosed yesterday, with the debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio also surpassing the 60 per cent threshold.

Unveiling what fiscal conservatives would likely describe as 'a horror show', Prime Minister Perry Christie unveiled a projected $550 million GFS deficit for the 2012-2013 fiscal year, a sum equivalent to 6.5 per cent of Bahamian GDP.

Together with the projected $504 million deficit for the 2011-2012 fiscal year, which is set to close on June 30, this means the Government will have to borrow more than $1 billion in just two years to cover both its recurrent and capital deficits.

And the $1.054 billion financing gap does not include debt principal redemption, which is set to total $66 million and $121 million, respectively, for the fiscal years 2011-2012 and 2012-2013. Together, that adds a further $187 million to the fiscal deficits, taking the gap between revenues and spending over the two years to $1.241 billion.

The Government's own projections show its direct debt standing at 50.6 per cent of GDP, or $4.057 billion, as at end-June 2012, then increasing to $4.607 billion, or 54.5 per cent of GDP, by the close of the 2012-2013 fiscal year.

Yet this masks the extent of the overall problem, because it does not factor in the $551 million worth of debt the Government has guaranteed on behalf of state-owned Corporations and agencies.

That sum was equivalent to 7 per cent of GDP at year-end 2011. Placed on top of the Government's direct charge, that takes the Bahamas' total national debt to $4.608 billion, or 57.6 per cent of GDP, at June 30, 2012.

And, when added to the projected $4.607 billion direct charge on government at the end of the 2012-2013 fiscal year, the Bahamas' total national debt will hit $5.158 billion - a sum equivalent to 61.5 per cent of national GDP.

And, if the Government's medium-term Budget projections are correct, GFS deficits of $357 million and $272 million in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, respectively, will take the direct charge to $5.215 billion at the end of the latter period.

Assuming the $551 million in government guaranteed debt remains relatively unchanged, the total Bahamas' national debt will hit $5.766 billion by June 30, 2015, a sum equivalent to 63.3 per cent of GDP.

That indicates the fiscal position will likely continue to weaken despite the improvement generated by positive GDP and economic growth, and also suggests the Bahamas will hit the $5.5 billion debt mark more than a year earlier than the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) 2016 forecast. It also appears that the Government is again relying on economic growth to keep the debt-to-GDP ratio below the 70 per cent the IMF has classified as a 'danger' threshold.

The toll this will exact on the Government's finances, and its ability to fund spending priorities and areas such as education and health, was brought into sharp relief by the Prime Minister yesterday, when he said debt servicing (interests) and debt principal requirements would collectively total $328 million for the 2012-2013 fiscal year - a sum equivalent to 18 per cent of recurrent spending.

Overall, the Budget was pretty much what observers expected, with Mr Christie, as Minister of Finance, performing a delicate balancing act between conveying a message of fiscal prudence and 'holding the line' on the deficit on one hand, while trying to stimulate the private sector and deliver on pre-election campaign promises with the other.

The main 'political battleground' themes surrounding the 2012-2013 Budget were also well-defined yesterday, with the Prime Minister describing the Government's deficit and debt levels, and overall fiscal position, as "much worse than we had anticipated".

Michael Halkitis, his minister of state for finance, went further in castigating the former Ingraham administration for "reckless" spending, particularly during the final months of its term.

He added that the previous government's fiscal policies had "severely constrained our room to manoevere", a signal that the PLP administration will likely lack the financial headroom to implement at least some of its pre-election manifesto promises.

The Opposition Free National Movement (FNM), though, will likely retort that the Government already knew the extent of the Bahamas' fiscal woes, having been fully briefed on the New Providence Road Improvement Project cost overruns and voted on all borrowing/spending resolutions brought to Parliament by the former administration.

It will argue that the Government is simply looking to blame the Ingraham administration, and in doing so, provide a cover for why it is unable to deliver on pre-election promises that the FNM has branded unrealistic.

Still, whichever way it is sliced and diced, the Bahamas' fiscal situation is dire. "The fiscal accounts are in much worse shape than we had expected as we came into office," Mr Christie warned yesterday.

"Indeed, this year's projected GFS deficit outturn is significantly higher than had been forecast by the previous administration last year's Budget communication. The GFS deficit in 2011-2012 is now projected at $504 million, up by a full $256 million from the previous government's estimate of $248 million."

The $256 million overshoot on the GFS deficit is 103 per cent, or more than double, the FNM's 2011-2012 Budget forecast, with the total $504 million deficit equivalent to 6.3 per cent of GDP - an unsustainable level more than double the 3 per cent estimate.

As a result, the Government's direct debt-to-GDP ratio will hit 50.6 per cent at June 30, 2012, as opposed to the 46.2 per cent level projected in last year's Budget.

Mr Christie's presentation, though, indicated that the majority of the GFS deficit overshoot for 2011-2012 was attributable to capital spending set to come in $119 million, or "almost 43 per cent", above target at $399 million - compared to the forecast $280 million.

The Prime Minister said the capital spending overshoot was "due in substantial part to a considerable increase in spending on the New Providence Road Improvement Project".

While faring a little better, the FNM administration also seems set to exceed its recurrent deficit estimates by 54.8 per cent, the projected outturn for 2011-2012 being $257 million as opposed to $166 million.

This, Mr Christie said, was the result of a combination of recurrent revenues "underperforming relative to the forecast" and recurrent spending beating projections at $27 million to hit $1.707 billion. Recurrent revenues for 2011-2012, he added, were set to come in at $1.45 billion, off target by $64 million.

Moving forward, Mr Christie pledged that the Government would move to "redress the unsustainable balance in our recurrent account" through a two-pronged strategy.

This, he said, would involve constraining recurrent spending so it grew in line with the Bahamian economy's growth, and "engineering a transformation of recurrent revenue to bring it to a more appropriate level relative to the size of the economy".

Promising to "hold the line" on recurrent spending in 2012-2013 "to the maximum extent possible", Mr Christie said it was still projected to rise by 6.7 per cent or $114 million to $1.821 billion, compared to $1.707 billion in the last fiscal year.

He added that $55 million of the recurrent spending rise was due "to the increased requirements for debt redemption in the coming period".

As for recurrent revenues, Mr Christie said they were projected to improve to 18.3 per cent of GDP in 2012-2013, up from 18.1 per cent in the current fiscal year. The Government is forecasting an increase from $1.45 billion to $1.55 billion, due to improved collections from Excise Tax and real property tax reforms.

As for capital spending, the Prime Minister said this would remain flat at $400 million in 2012-2013, attributing this to "a large inventory of ongoing projects" - including the $77 million borrowing for the New Providence Road Improvement Project.

May 31, 2012

tribune242

Caribbean Blog International

The threat of excessive public sector debt in The Bahamas...

The national debt

thenassauguardian editorial



Governments, international agencies, rating agencies and most businessmen regard the level of national debt to the size of the economy (GDP) as one of the most important economic indicators in assessing the current and future health of the economy.

The national debt consists of funds borrowed directly by the government plus any debt of the government corporations which have been guaranteed by the government.

Governments usually borrow funds when there is a need to undertake capital projects (office buildings, schools, roads, docks etc.) and the revenue from taxes is insufficient to cover the capital works.

The size of any economy determines the level of potential taxes that could be collected to meet government expenditure needs for, among other things, education, health, law enforcement, social welfare and of course, debt servicing of any loans taken out by the government.

Current and future living standards in any country are influenced by the amount of resources applied by governments, on a yearly basis, to education, health, national security, social welfare and other public sector areas.

In order to ensure that sufficient resources are available on a sustainable basis for those fundamental public sector functions, good fiscal management compels governments to restrain the growth in debt servicing to a level where it does not threaten to crowd-out and push aside the needs of the other important sectors of society.

In many third-world countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the public resources from tax revenues to finance public debt have exceeded the public resources allocations for education and health; a position considered by many as an undesirable path towards the lowering of living standards.

In an attempt to address poor policy choices by governments, international agencies such as the IMF (International Monetary Fund), World Bank and the IDB (Inter-American Development Bank) which provide economic advice on a global basis, urge governments to try and keep debt ratios (total national debt as a percentage of total national output or GDP) to a reasonable level.

In the case of developing countries such as The Bahamas, the level suggested is somewhere in the region of 40 percent.

Most countries, particularly those in the developing world, have fallen short of that objective.

Indeed, with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago at 26 percent, many developing countries are in the high 80s (Barbados) or, in some cases the ratio exceeded 100 percent, (Jamaica at 123 percent for example), while the European countries have set the debt to GDP ratio at 60 percent as the desired level for their community. Our nearest neighbor and largest trading partner, the United States, has a debt to GDP ratio that stands at an unusually high level of 97 percent.

When a country’s debt to GDP is high, it implies that the country is struggling and could have difficulty servicing its debt.

Currently The Bahamas’ ratio is in the high 50s and growing.

It is not yet in troublesome territory but given the trend over the past few years and the growing commitments to further borrowing, including the Chinese loans and the associated capital needs of the utility companies, there is surely some cause for some concern.

The policy makers and other interested parties would need to closely monitor the debt situation to ensure that the nation’s economy remains healthy and that our living standards are not threatened by excessive public sector debt.

3/18/2011

thenassauguardian editorial

Bahamas Blog International

The Bahamas National Debt Increases

Fiscal experts have warned repeatedly that government debt exceeding 40 percent would signal danger as The Bahamas government may be forced into a mode of borrowing that could be fiscally unhealthy 

Bahamas: $2.54 Billion In National Debt

By Candia Dames

candiadames@hotmail.com

Nassau, The Bahamas

24 August 2005

The National Debt rose from $2.54 billion to $2.63 billion in the second quarter of 2005, the Central Bank of The Bahamas says in its newly released statistical digest.

In the second quarter of 2004, the National Debt stood at $2.39 billion, but has continued to see a steady rise, according to the figures.

The report reveals that the government’s contingent liabilities continued to grow, jumping from $438.4 million in the first quarter of 2005 to $454.13 million in the second quarter of the year.

The National Debt takes into consideration the government guaranteed borrowings of public corporations and other public entities.

These contingent liabilities include the $24 million in bonds issued by the Clifton Heritage Authority; $40.7 million in loans taken up by the Education Loan Authority; and $111.7 million in Bahamas Mortgage Corporation loans.

At the end of this fiscal year, government debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to be 37.5 or $2.330 billion.

Fiscal experts have warned repeatedly that government debt exceeding 40 percent would signal danger as the government may be forced into a mode of borrowing that could be fiscally unhealthy.

In the notes attached to the 2004/2005-budget communication, the government explains that growth in the debt is justified if it supports increases in the productive capacity within the economy, and if the servicing burden from principal repayment and interest costs does not unduly constrain the economy’s access to foreign exchange for other beneficial purposes.

It’s a point Minister of State for Finance James Smith – who is presently in the U.S. convalescing after what was termed a successful surgery – has made repeatedly.

He has also noted that the economy is projected to grow by 3.5 percent this year and the foreign component of the National Debt is "extremely low."

In an earlier interview, Minister Smith explained that, "If the $2 billion were held by a foreign bank, at anytime [that bank] could demand payment and you’re virtually bankrupt.  You can’t even go and negotiate with them for whatever reason.  So that means your risk is much higher."

The government has also noted that international observers closely monitor the total foreign currency debt of the government and public corporations, as on the repayment side it represents a required use of foreign exchange earnings.

The International Monetary Fund recommended in its June 2005 report on The Bahamas "a further strengthening of the 2005/2006 fiscal stance relative to the budget proposal and closer monitoring of budgetary developments to help ensure that the more stringent objective [of government debt-to-GDP ratio of 30 percent] is achieved."

In the upcoming fiscal year, the government intends to spend $1.214 billion, an increase of $39 million, or three percent over the 2004/2005 budget.

The government projects it will collect $1.145 billion, an increase of $93 million, or nine percent in revenues.

The Bahamas 2005-2006 Fiscal Deficit is Projected to Increase Over the Previous Period

The Bahamas 2005-2006 National Budget Projects The Government Finance Statistic (GFS) Deficit of $172 million

Budget Deficit Soars

By Candia Dames

candiadames@hotmail.com

Nassau, The Bahamas

26th May 2005

The 2005-2006 budget projects a GFS deficit of $172 million, which would be $30 million more than the deficit expected when this fiscal year draws to a close on June 30.

The $172 million deficit would be 2.8 percent of GDP and would be the highest deficit since fiscal year 2002-2003 when the spending shortfall came in at $184 million.

There are several factors that are expected to contribute to increased spending in the 2005-2006 fiscal year, Acting Prime Minister Cynthia Pratt announced in the House of Assembly yesterday.

The recurrent expenditure is pegged at $1.214 billion, which is an increase of $39 million or 3 percent over the 2004/2005 budget.

"The single major component of the increase is the provision in the Ministry of Finance Estimates to pay increases for public servants and related groups, arising from the present negotiations, as well as some increase in benefits for retired public servants," Mrs. Pratt announced.

"Another important increase is for the improvement in insurance arrangements for the Royal Bahamas Police Force, the Royal Bahamas Defence Force and the other law enforcement officers."

This comes to a total of $8 million, the Acting Prime Minister announced.

In addition to the GFS deficit, one of the traditional highlights in the annual budget communication is the ratio of government debt to GDP given that financial experts continue to advise that this ratio should be kept as near as possible to 30 percent of GDP to avoid the problems which would arise from a ratio significantly in excess of that level.

Exceeding the 40 percent mark could mean that the government’s ability to borrow money would be severely constrained and it would be forced to sharply increase taxes, Mrs. Pratt reiterated during her communication, which she delivered on behalf of Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Perry Christie, who is still convalescing at home three weeks after suffering a slight stroke.

"Fiscal deficits arise if we spend more than we earn in revenues and if this situation continues for long enough we build up massive borrowing problems," Mrs. Pratt pointed out.

She added that circumstances are quite different if the ratio of government debt to GDP is closer to 30 percent.

"There would be much greater scope to avoid these drastic remedies because there would be the capacity to borrow until the economic situation improves and until revenues recover so as to again close the gap between revenue and expenditure.  This is what transpired in 2001 and 2002," the Acting Prime Minister said.

She said in order to bring the ratio of government debt to GDP as close as possible to 30 percent revenues must consistently attain the level of 20 percent of GDP.

"At that level, we can also provide the level of revenue resources which we need for ongoing public expenditure while containing the fiscal deficit," Mrs. Pratt said.

She also noted that successive governments have tried to attain the ratio of government revenue to GDP of about 20 percent.

At that level, Mrs. Pratt said, Bahamians could enjoy a reasonable level of public services without the introduction of taxation to pay for them.

"However, the ratio of revenue to GDP of 20 percent is becoming increasingly hard to achieve because of the narrowness of our revenue system, heavily dependent as it is on customs revenues and the non-taxation of services.  Thus, the expansion of essential public services has resulted in fiscal deficits emerging, which have been met by borrowing.

"As a result, the level of government debt to GDP has risen inexorably since the year 2000.  In recognition of this issue, in the 2005/2006 budget- the government is aiming to contain the ratio of government debt to GDP to under 38 percent."

The Acting Prime Minister also said that the government is continuing an aggressive process of addressing tax reform to improve its revenue situation.

The 2005-2006 budget projects recurrent revenue of $1.145 billion, an increase of $93 million or 9 percent over the 2004/2005 budget.

"The reason for projecting an increase of 9 percent over 2004/2005 is because of the strengthening of the economy, with growth in current terms of over five percent and the heightened emphasis being given to concrete and specific improvement in revenue administration," Mrs. Pratt said.

The Acting Prime Minister also announced that the government plans to improve all of the country’s national airports to raise them to the highest standards required.

"Accordingly, a variety of air navigational fees and related charges in the Family Islands are being increased to more realistic levels to meet part of the cost," she announced.  "In addition, it is intended to implement passenger facility fees at major airports as part of the cost recovery exercise."

Prime Minister Perry Christie's Consolative News on The Budget Deficit

Prime Minister Christie's comforting words on the deficit: ...new revenue figures seem set to improve the fiscal outlook and GFS deficit for next year

Deficit Forecast Revised

By Candia Dames

candiadames@hotmail.com

Nassau, The Bahamas

21/06/2004

More than three weeks after his deficit projections in the budget communication sparked criticism in some quarters, Prime Minister Perry Christie has revised those numbers, providing a more positive forecast.

Mr. Christie told the Journal shortly after Members of Parliament passed the 2004/2005 budget late Friday night that new revenue figures seem set to improve the fiscal outlook and GFS deficit for next year.

The budget projects a GFS deficit of $164 million, but the prime minister said it is likely that the figure will be less.

He said the new expectation is that the deficit for 2004/2005 could be closer to 2.5 percent of GDP as opposed to the 2.9 percent he projected in the budget communication on May 26.

At the time, the prime minister said, "If the process of reviewing the national accounts data leads to substantial increases in the GDP data, the actual level of GSF deficit could be considerably lower."

While speaking to the Journal, he said his hopes have been realized.

"We were projecting an outturn for 2003/2004 of $920 million," Mr. Christie said.  "We have now been informed that the revenue of $920 million has already been registered and it is likely that we will record an amount nearer to $950 million.  We believe that this is indicative of the improved techniques and procedures in revenue collections."

The prime minister said it is important for him and his government to see this as an indicator because they have argued in the budget presentation that there will be 3 percent growth in the economy this year.

When added to improved revenue collections, this would allow the government to "attack" the GFS deficit, he said.

"What I think is to be learnt from this is that the efforts of the Ministry of Finance to introduce technology and expertise inclusive of equipment for the enhanced collection of revenue is serving to be to the advantage of the government," the prime minister said.

"We have truly predicated our budget on this basis: We believe that rather than pass additional taxes, which in part was recommended by the [International Monetary Fund], that we are able to, based on historical evidence, take advantage of the capital inflows as a result of the Kerzner development."

He told the Journal that the government has every reason to continue with its optimism.

Only days after he introduced his "no new taxes" budget, Prime Minister Christie faced opposition in and outside of parliament.

Although saying that he was not seeking to put himself at odds with Mr. Christie and his government, Central Bank Governor Julian Francis spoke of the need for Bahamians to pay more taxes to finance government services.

Mr. Francis also warned against continued borrowing to cover the deficit.

When asked to respond to the governor's suggestions, Mr. Christie said, "It shows that if he has done that, and he is able to do it independently of the process of governance of the country, that there is something that we should be doing to harmonize the efforts of those who advise me in the Ministry of Finance and those agencies that are a part of the financial governance of the country, like the Central Bank."

He added, "We ought to make every effort to ensure that we're working together."

Mr. Christie's revision to his deficit forecast came only a day after former Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham told parliament that the new budget does not provide the right tonic for the country's fiscal predicament.

"I assert that now is not the time for reliance to be placed upon unrealistic revenue increases from existing taxation," Mr. Ingraham said.

He also urged the prime minister to "rein your colleagues in."

"They are spending and committing to spending too much," Mr. Ingraham said.  "You have to tell them there are no available government jobs now; they will come when there is strong economic growth and larger investment inflows.  And tell them unless spending is restrained, there won't be any jobs for them."

But a confident prime minister said Friday that, "The growing strength of the economy in 2004 and 2005 will generate significant additional revenues."

The budget debate is scheduled to begin in the Senate today to give Senators enough time to pass the spending plan in time for the new fiscal year, which begins July 1.