The Bahamas 2022 CENSUS PRELIMINARY RESULTS

PRELIMINARY CENSUS COUNT

DATA HIGHLIGHTS

The Bahamas National Statistical Institute is pleased to release the 2022 Census of Population and Housing preliminary results.

The 2022 Census Preliminary results show the Total Population of The Bahamas to be 399,314, with a sex distribution of 192,544 males and 206,770 females.  Included in this count were all persons who on April 4th, were residents of The Bahamas, regardless of their legal status.

Therefore, all immigrants, legal and irregular, were counted.  Persons serving in the diplomat corps and individuals studying abroad were also included in the count.

POPULATION DYNAMICS

Population Growth and Change

During the intercensal period 2010-2022, the population of The Bahamas increased by 13.6% (47,853 persons), resulting in an average annual growth rate of 1.1%.  This increase (13.6%) is 2.2 percentage points lower than the increase (15.8%) between 2000 and 2010.  There was also a decline in the average annual growth rate, down from 1.6% in 2010 to 1.1% in 2022.

Components of Population Change

The main components of population change are births, deaths, and migration.  “Natural Increase” is defined as the difference between live-births and deaths, and “Net Migration” is defined as the difference between the number of people moving into an area and the number of people moving out.  Because it is difficult to measure actual migration, demographers often estimate migration as a residual value, by calculating the difference between total population and natural increase.

Analyzing the components of change is an enlightening way to understand how the population is shifting over time and the main contributors to the change.  Looking at the components (natural increase and net migration) from 1990 to 2000, the population grew mainly by natural increase, from 2000 to 2010 net migration started to become a contender in population growth for The Bahamas, and by 2022 net migration has become a part of the landscape. 

Contributing factors to changes in the components are a lower number of babies being born, an increase in the number of deaths, and an increase in the number of persons ( citizens and non-citizens ) migrating into the country.

Geographical Distribution of the Population

The data show that New Providence with 296,522 persons accounted for 74.26% of the population.  This, compared to 2010, represents a 4.17 percentage point increase in this island’s population share.  Grand Bahama, however, registered a decrease in its population share; Grand Bahama’s count of 47,475 persons, accounted for 11.89% of the population, a decline of 2.73 percentage points, from 14.62% in 2010.  Abaco, Eleuthera, Andros and Exuma accounted for 4.15%, 2.32%, 1.95% and 1.83% respectively of the total population.

New Providence showed substantial population gain during the intercensal period.  The population of New Providence increased by 50,193 or 20.38%, whilst Grand Bahama showed a decrease in population.  Grand Bahama decreased by almost four thousand persons (3,893) or -7.58%, this decrease in absolute population, was the highest among all of the islands, showing population decreases during the intercensal period.  In addition to New Providence, only nine of the islands registered population gains.  These were Acklins, Andros, Berry Islands, Bimini, Cat Island, Eleuthera, Exuma and Cays, Harbour Island, and Spanish Wells.  All of the remaining islands suffered population loss.  Collectively, the Family Islands showed a change in population from 53,764 in 2010 to 55,317 in 2022, an increase of 2.89%.

Sex Distribution

The sex ratio is an important indicator of population composition.  The sex ratio is used to describe the balance between males and females in the population.  The preliminary count revealed that there were 192,544 males and 206,770 females for a sex ratio of 93 males per 100 females.  Males accounted for 48.22% of the population and females 52.78%.

Households

There were 118,221 households recorded, an increase of 15,359 or 14.93% over 2010.  The average household size decreased from 3.42 in 2010 to 3.38 in 2022.  New Providence accounted for 79,660 of these households, with an average household size of 3.72, which was higher than the national average.  In Grand Bahama, there were 17,820 households and the average household size was 2.66 persons.  Mayaguana with 113 households had the lowest average household size of 1.84 persons, while Harbour Island with 436 households had the highest with 4.27 persons.

Population Density

The population density is measured by the number of people per square mile or kilometer.  Population density is also a way of showing how crowded a place is in comparison to its land area.  The overall population density of The Bahamas increased from 65.3 persons per square mile in 2010 to 74.2 persons in 2022.  Notable increases were shown for New Providence, Bimini and the Berry Islands.  New Providence continued to be the most densely populated of the three; recording a population density of 3,707 persons per square mile, an increase of 20.4% or 627 more persons per square mile.  Bimini and the Berry Islands recorded a 2% and 2.1% increase over the period, resulting in an additional 39 and 17 persons per square mile respectively.

Reliability of the Census Data

In keeping with standard practices, the census count was evaluated against other independent sources of data in order to determine its accuracy.  One of the major “benchmarks” is the population projections that were made following the 2010 Census.  These Projections had population estimates for the year 2022 at 404,290 using the high variant; 397,360 using the medium variant and 390,140 using the low variant.  The preliminary census count of 399,314 is within the range of these projections, falling between the medium and high variants.

Another independent source used was the vital registration records of the country.  Under this procedure, the number of birth, deaths, in-migrants, and out-migrants are added to or subtracted from the population enumerated in the previous census to calculate the expected population size and composition.  Although accurate records of international migration are not available, the records show that 53,062 live births and 29,470 deaths occurred in The Bahamas during the intercensal period.  This puts the natural increase at 23,592.  When added to the 2010 Census figure, a population of 375,053 is the result.  The difference of 24,261 between this population and the preliminary census count can be attributed to net migration.

Another procedure for evaluating the accuracy of the census count was the Post Enumeration Survey (PES).  Bearing in mind that no census is perfect, a major assessment of the completeness of census enumeration was carried out shortly after the closing out of field enumeration.  A number of households in selected enumeration districts (EDs) were canvassed in order to determine whether or not persons and housing units were accurately counted in the census exercise.  The initial findings of the survey mirrored the census results as it relates to household size, coverage, and response rates. 

As stated earlier, these results are preliminary and subject to change.  More detailed information will be made available in the final results.  Additional information will be released by the Census Office as it becomes available.

Source/Full Preliminary Report

The Bahamas 2010 Census Report: ... ...the census report makes note of the first census in 1722 ...whereby 74 percent of the population was white and 26 percent black... compared to the 2010 census ...whereby 91 percent identified themselves as black, five percent white, and two percent as of mixed race... ...Such an extreme reorientation of the racial makeup of a country identifies the need to reexamine assumptions about who we are

The Bahamas in numbers

thenassauguardian editorial

Our census, a vital and complicated undertaking, describes the identity of The Bahamas through numbers.  It is also indicative of trends and analysis of data based on successive census reports.

For The Bahamas this not only means comparison on a regional scale, but also between our islands.  Remarkably, this is the 19th decennial census to be conducted in The Bahamas.  Early census counts are not likely to be comparable to recent data due to likely discrepancies in survey methods, but they nonetheless provide value to the history of The Bahamas.

Interestingly, the census report makes note of the first census in 1722 whereby 74 percent of the population was white and 26 percent black, compared to the 2010 census whereby 91 percent identified themselves as black, five percent white, and two percent as of mixed race.  Such an extreme reorientation of the racial makeup of a country identifies the need to reexamine assumptions about who we are.

Population statistics are perhaps the most widely recognized outcome of a census.  For those living in New Providence, it is all too obvious that the island accounts for 246,329 people or 70 percent of the total Bahamian population.  With an additional 35,497 people since 2000, it is all too apparent that the roads are more congested, lines a bit longer, and the housing prices just a bit higher.

But herein lies the importance of data availability.  While New Providence may have experienced the greatest increase in people, several other islands had a much higher percent change in population growth – take Abaco, which experienced an increase of 4,054 people or nearly 31 percent to a population of 17,224 compared to 2000.  Though such an increase would be nominal for New Providence over 10 years, in Abaco the additional people stress local infrastructure from power generation to road maintenance.

The Bahamas’ greatest challenge is providing and maintaining basic infrastructure across the populated islands.  Even with all the controversy, Abaco needed a new power generating facility and still suffers from countless power failures.  While the population congregates in New Providence, growth and a retraction of growth on some islands must guide government expenditure and planning.

Likewise, the government must accept the diversity of residents living in The Bahamas and amend its immigration policies.  Seventeen percent of the population claims citizenship elsewhere, the majority or 64 percent were from Haiti.  Though the census claims to account for residents regardless of immigration status, it is difficult to imagine that the census was able to account for all residents of known Haitian communities such as those found in Abaco.

The Nassau Guardian has reported on specific data tables such as Internet access and usage, health insurance, and access to toilets at private dwellings.  There are numerous other tables where trends can be extrapolated on for use in education planning, the looming retirement of baby boomers and their future health care needs, marriage trends and reproduction rates.

A copy of the Census 2010 Report became publicly available online on Monday, October 15.  Such data provides innumerable opportunities for government agencies, private researchers and the general public to better understand our Bahamas.

Oct 17, 2012

thenassauguardian editorial

Caribbean Blog International

Bahamas: Increases in population lead to increased crime ...while increases in gross domestic product (GDP) lead to decreased crime

Study keys in on causes of crime

By Candia Dames
Guardian News Editor
candia@nasguard.com

A new scientific study by a College of The Bahamas researcher has concluded what may come as no surprise to policymakers: Increases in population lead to increased crime while increases in gross domestic product (GDP) lead to decreased crime.

“If you know what your population growth is going to be, the government would have to increase GDP by a certain amount to keep the crime rate at wherever their quota is,” said Dr. Yan Lyansky, an assistant professor in the School of Mathematics, Physics and Technology.

Lyansky has come up with a mathematical formula, which he said could accurately predict what the rate of crime would be at any given point in the future based on the population of The Bahamas and the size of its economy.

“Everybody is worried about crime, but according to the numbers it doesn’t look different historically from what’s been going on a very, very long time ago,” he said.

“What I mean is when you talk about population growth, you’re going to naturally get more crime and everything looks consistent.

“It looks like maybe in more recent history there is little more of a spike but there’s not enough data for that to analyze.”

The paper is one of the studies that will be presented at COB’s 2011 Violence Research Symposium on November 3.

The goal of the research conducted by Lyansky is to find the best predictors of violent crime in The Bahamas.

“We assume that the government will be able to change policy to lower the crime rate if it knows the determining factors that influence crime,” said the study’s abstract.

The paper notes that crime has been an escalating problem in the Caribbean.  In The Bahamas, the general public perceives that crime is out of control, it adds.

The paper also says, “The police commissioner is under pressure to find a solution to the problem.”

The study says that as the population increases, the government may need to invest an even greater proportion of its resources in dealing with crime as the number of crimes increase.

It adds, “Government policies should be designed to increase the prosperity of the nation, but what this data shows is that when the country can not position itself to compete or can not cope with external shocks, then crime would be expected to rise.”

In an interview with The Nassau Guardian, Lyansky said, “We can predict exactly where the crime rate’s going to be moving forward, given the fact that it has been very accurate in the past.”

He said that many people who speak about crime and the causes of crime — including some authorities — do not speak from a factual position.

“A lot of the things that are written about crime, that I’ve read, and the explanations that I’ve heard make me shake my head.  They’re not going to help advance a solution,” Lyansky said.

As an example, he said, “The police commissioner, he was close to my house one day giving a talk and his explanation was that it’s all based on drugs and you know, that’s a bunch of nonsense and the reason it’s nonsense is I would actually have liked to make a correlation between the two, however, there is no data on drugs, drug usage or anything here so to make a blanket statement like that, it’s just a statement.

“You’re not actually going to be making progress from [those kinds of statements].”

Lyansky said there are so many inconsistencies in explanations some people provide regarding the causes of crime that it’s impossible to make any scientific determinations about them.

Speaking of the importance of scientific research, he said, “It gives you a better predictor moving forward.

“…If you need GDP to increase and you know the population’s going up, you need to do this to GDP and hence that would be a basic way (to fight crime).”

Oct 24, 2011

thenassauguardian

Caribbean Blog International