2012 General Election Predictions (Part 2) - Bahamas

Election predictions - part 2
By ADRIAN GIBSON
ajbahama@hotmail.com




THE odds are stacked against Zhivargo Laing in Marco City in the next general election.

Frankly, the race in this constituency appears to be between two unpopular candidates. Mr Laing, who may yet again have to move to another constituency (similar to the constant relocation of former PLP MP Paul Adderley) is said to have worn-out his welcome in his constituency. Constituents have complained that Mr Laing is out of touch with public sentiment and have objected to being seen or addressed in a patronizing, condescending manner by any politician. Mr Laing's constituents have complained about an air of perceived arrogance and expressed an interest in having Mr Laing spend more time actually listening (genuinely) to their concerns. The Marco City MP is a banana peel away from slipping into the political abyss. PLP nominee Greg Moss (lawyer) is likely to defeat him.

Brensil Rolle, the Garden Hills MP, will likely defeat Dr Kendal Major. Mr Rolle is apparently quite popular on the ground and considering the population shifts in the constituency--due to the recent construction and sale of houses in newly constructed housing subdivisions--he may have the advantage in an electoral showdown.

Vincent Peet, the MP for North Andros has been relatively quiet of late. Mr Peet is likely to retain his seat.

Melanie Griffin will politically sucker punch FNM challenger Joshua Sears. I am told that the boundary cuts will favour Sears, extending Yamacraw further eastward into large chunks of Brent Symonette's St Annes' constituency. However, because there are also plans afoot to relocate Phenton Neymour to the Exuma constituency, Mr Sears' name has been bandied about as a likely replacement for Mr Neymour in South Beach.

Lacklustre

If Phenton Neymour contests the South Beach seat, his teeth "will be on edge" having tested the sour grapes of what's said to be an impending defeat. Mr Neymour lacks the political horsepower to recapture the seat, as many residents express displeasure with his lackluster representation.

However, if Mr Neymour runs in Exuma, he could possibly edge out incumbent PLP MP Anthony Moss. Mr Moss is said to be unpopular in the Exuma Cays and has rendered a performance that is purportedly the reason for much voter discontent. Black Point residents--the second largest polling division--claim to have not seen Mr Moss since the last general election. Noticeably, Mr Neymour has made frequent trips into the Exuma constituency of late. Even more, of late Mr Neymour has also dropped the moniker he used to describe his constituents in Parliament--"the kings and queens of South Beach"--giving one the impression that perhaps the underlying notion now is that the Royal family of South Beach are preparing to dismiss their servant.

That said, Neymour's entrance into the Exuma race will leave the constituency too close to call--for now.

Notably, if Joshua Sears contests the South Beach seat as the standard bearer for the FNM, he has a more favourable chance of defeating Nurses Union president Cleola Hamilton (PLP), who has already been described by some residents as "charmless."

The Fox Hill seat could go either way. I'm told that the boundary cuts will now incorporate a polling division--out of Montagu and near to Step Street--in hopes of assisting challenger Dr Jacintha Higgs (a lady who wears the most enrapturing outfits) in gaining a foothold on the constituency and rendering current MP Fred Mitchell a seatless wonder. By all accounts, Mr Mitchell has been a visible, working MP, thereby leaving his opponent with a long, tough journey to the polls. My electoral crystal ball could not yet reveal a likely winner in this contest.

Kenyatta Gibson, the bombastic-talking MP for Kennedy, is abandoning the constituency and running as the FNM's candidate in South Eleuthera. Although incumbent MP Oswald Ingraham is in his 70s, he could still vie for the seat or be replaced by one of eight applicants for the PLP nomination--a list that I am told includes local government chief councilor Hank Johnson.

Although Mr Gibson and his family purportedly have roots in the constituency, it is likely that he will be sent deeper into political oblivion following the next election. It appears that Mr Gibson walked the Parliamentary floor and will now be walking out of Parliament altogether!

Tommy Turnquest holds a slight edge over Arnold Forbes in the race for Mount Moriah. Although the Bahamas remains in a state of national "un-security", Mr Forbes' campaign may become anemic and lose traction due to reported business-related issues emanating from Canada.

Comeback

Bain and Grants Town is likely to remain in the PLP column, as Dr Bernard Nottage is expected to take out whoever the FNM nominee will be. At this juncture, party insiders inform me that the former area MP Gregory Williams is vying for the nomination in an attempt to make a political comeback; also reportedly seeking the nod is former candidate David Jordine and Rev CB Moss, who is said to be in talks with the FNM. Of course, Bain and Grants Town is a traditionally PLP seat.

PLP leader Perry Christie will most certainly humiliate his challenger in the Farm Road constituency.

The race for the Marathon constituency is setting up to be a slugfest. Of late, newcomer Jerome Fitzgerald has amped up his courtship of constituents by purchasing alarm systems and having them installed in their homes. Whilst incumbent Dr Earl Deveaux certainly has the upper hand, having spoken to constituents and political insiders from both of the major parties, I've concluded that the Marathon brawl is too close to call at this time.

The contest for North Eleuthera constituency--given the decision of House Speaker Alvin Smith not to stand for re-election--should be an exciting race to watch. Purported FNM candidate Theo Neilly--an airport manager and local government chief councilor--is slated to run against Spanish Wells native and fellow local government councilor Clay Sweeting. However, for the FNM, lawyer Richard Lightbourne's name has also been mentioned as a possible nominee. Here again, it's too far out to call this race, particularly since--at least on the national scene--both candidates are political neophytes. However, I am told that the contest for North Eleuthera is expected to be a costly affair, with lots of money changing hands.

The voters of Golden Isles will rebuke MP Charles Maynard in a runoff where challenger Michael Halkitis is expected to beat the incumbent MP like a piñata. A walloping could leave Mr Maynard having fits of post-election hysteria and, like the movie Sleepless in Seattle, he'll likely be Sleepless in Golden Isles.

During his term in office, Mr Maynard has struck me as a representative/minister who--unlike the movie--politically has no true grit.

With Kenyatta Gibson speedily running away to Eleuthera, the Kennedy seat will easily remain a PLP stronghold with newcomer Dion Smith trouncing all challengers.

PLP Deputy Leader and MP for Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador Philip "Brave" Davis will put a spanking on FNM challenger George Wilson. In the past, Mr Wilson unsuccessfully ran as an independent candidate in the same constituency.

There is also another angle that must be explored relative to Mr Davis' political future as he has been speculated as having an interest in relocating to the St Cecilia seat. PLP insiders inform me that if Mr Davis runs in St Cecilia, the party is likely to send former Police Commissioner BK Bonamy to vie for the Cat Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador seat.

There is chatter that Verna Grant, FNM MP for Eight Mile Rock, is facing some serious opposition. Purportedly, Ms Grant is attempting to retain her nomination as former Senator Kay Forbes is said to be interested in displacing Ms Grant and running for the FNM in that seat. In what some say will be a tumultuous election season for her, Ms Grant is also expected to face vigorous challenges from potential PLP nominees such as Sandra Edgecombe (former principal at Eight Mile Rock High), Caleb Outten or a yet unnamed opponent. This time around, it appears that the polls could go either way.

High Rock MP Kenneth Russell (FNM) will rout the still unnamed PLP challenger in this largely FNM borough.

Lucaya MP Neko Grant will torpedo the electoral hopes of supposed PLP nominee Dr Lea Percentie.

The Pineridge seat is being contested by two five-star candidates. It is unfortunate that one of these men will have to politically cancel out the other.

Current MP Kwasi Thompson has been an outstanding representative, whilst challenger PLP Senator Dr Michael Darville--who has a medical practice in the constituency--also earned much praise from residents.

Frankly, the PLP should have nominated Dr Darville in the Marco City constituency, as he is not overwhelmingly favoured to beat Mr Thompson as opposed to the outright favourable rating in a race against Zhivargo Laing. That said, Dr Darville is a formidable candidate and, whilst Mr Thompson holds a slight edge at this time, the quality of the candidates vying for the voters support in this race could cause the pendulum to swing either way. This race will certainly be a nail biter, i.e. if Dr Darville is not transplanted to contest the Marco City seat.

PLP incumbent Frank Smith will face-off against likely FNM challenger Linda Treco in the St Thomas More constituency. By all accounts, Mr Smith has earned the ire of the Prime Minister, so it is expected that the full weight of the FNM's electoral machinery will be coming down upon him.

Reliable sources inform me that upcoming boundary cuts will place a portion of St Thomas More in Loretta Butler-Turner's Montagu constituency, arguing that because she won by more than 1000 votes in the last election, she can likely absorb some votes against her and still preserve a comfortable margin in another victorious run. Apparently, a portion of Fox Hill will likewise be absorbed into Brent Symonette's St Anne's constituency. I'm also told that Paradise Island will become a part of the new St Thomas More constituency.

Creditable

Pinewood, a PLP foothold, could once again return to the party's win column. Frankly, MP Byron Woodside has done a creditable job in the constituency. However, a loss may, among other factors, be due to changes within the voting block and the luck of the political draw as the constituency has had an extensive love affair with the PLP. The race for Pinewood will no doubt be close and quite competitive.

According to sources, the PLP intend to run attorney Damian Gomez in Pinewood.

Flip a coin and, quite similarly, the Elizabeth constituency can go either way although incumbent Ryan Pinder (PLP) is favoured--at this juncture--to retain his seat. That said, I've been clued-up by FNM insiders of the likely mapping out of a favourable boundary cut for challenger Dr Duane Sands--a cut which is set to incorporate "more FNM polling divisions" and cut-out a part of Elizabeth Estates.

Edison Key will retain his South Abaco seat.

Prime Minister and FNM leader Hubert Ingraham will crush all challengers--whether that is Ky Mills and/or Jackson McIntosh--in the race for the North Abaco seat. Frankly, the electoral hopes of Mr Ingraham's challengers are comparable to running in quick sand--struggling and sinking fast!

As we enter another general election season, Bahamians must begin to demand true and visionary leadership within their constituencies and on the national front.

The upcoming general election will certainly--as is seen every five years--be a political circus. Indeed, this will be a helluva election season, which will leave--upon its conclusion--more than a handful of sitting MPs and electoral hopefuls reaching for a crying towel.

March 19, 2011

2012 General Election Predictions (Part 1) - Bahamas

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