Friday, December 31, 2021

We must grasp the essence of this pandemic phenomenon


By Professor Gilbert Morris

Pandemics are not medical or health crisis, but logistical/demographic and informational crisis!

About Pandemics
The grail - even if not holy - had better be wholly, universal free national testing: if someone walks in and is found to be infected, reporting that in a national dashboard is utterly useless. Therefore, the first intensity is our mindset and methods.

I warned about using arithmetical approaches to an exponential phenomena; which is confirmed in basic calculus.
I warned that pandemics are not medical or health crisis, but logistical/demographic and informational crisis!
I warned that the thinking and decisions in a pandemic must be at the speed of the pandemic and so the correct mindset is to learn, unless and relearn instantly. That means there can be no pride of decision. Every decision must have a team questioning that decision.

Second, I warned that we can’t establish a “proportionality constant” (the efficacious measure of the social protocols) without a data driven platform for decision-making including eDiagnostic Surveys and Bluetooth contact tracing…establishing disease ‘pattern and flow’, so decisions are made at velocities of the disease spread.
Beyond that I warned of the impacts of fiscal/financial/economic triage.
There are only two meaningful solution thresholds…two symbiotic options that must be the result of each other:

- 1. Feed the Peg and
- 2. Free national tests!
At the international level, we must beware:

- 1. Of optimisations ostensibly to save lives which leads to greater deaths…such as lockdowns that crippled food supply chains!
- 2. Vaccine visas because they are unscientific counterproductive bullshit!
- 3. DNA becoming Identity because sovereignty would be finally and absolutely neutered
- 4. Disequilibrium in boarder entry requirements across nations because tourists destinations must lead in this particular
- 5. The adoption of constitutionally imprudent exponential technologies that carry and adapt unDemocratic tail risks!

There are those insipid reasoners, lost in pedantry, who think they are reading a list of solutions. More cognitively graceful readers see correctly, a system.
Universal free testing is a simple idea. But when imagined as a data generator to establish pattern and flow of the disease spread, it becomes more powerful. A database is an old idea now. But when seen as establishing informational leverage to read back against the viral pattern and flow, revealing interstitial demographics, it becomes as efficiently extrapolative as exponentially powerful. When you say we need tourists because we need US dollars to fortify and facilitate domestic demand and balance of payments, universal testing is then merged with economic prospects and so in this manner and evermore deeply, a series of ideas are systematised as a concept; an evolving tool, subject to constant tinkering - a mechanism - to approach this crisis proactively.
We must grasp the essence of this pandemic phenomenon; which is not about infection rates…it’s about cultivating a mechanism to anticipate and compensate for tail risks in real time, at scale and across categories!
Let that sink in….!